2024 NFL Most Rushing Yards Odds


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2024 NFL Most Rushing Yards Odds

The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Rushing Yard Props and it’s time to dive into the 2024 NFL Most Rushing Yards Odds for the top running backs and quarterbacks.. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Derrick Henry and a few additional wagers I considered.

Christian McCaffrey cashed the 10th-shortest odds at +3000 with an NFL-best 1459 rushing yards last season. Despite resting in the season finale, he easily bested Derrick Henry (1167, +550) and Kyren Williams (1144, N/A). CMC is the favorite to repeat as the league leader in receiving yards entering his age-28 season at +275 odds. He’s followed by Jonathan Taylor (+400), Saquon Barkley (+500), Breece Hall (+750), Kyren Williams (+1000), and Bijan Robinson (+1000) at 10/1 odds or shorter.

I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Playoff Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Receiving Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rushing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 32 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.

Rushing Yards Leaders From the Last Decade

YearRunning BackAgeTeam RecordRushing YardsOdds (rank)
2023Christian McCaffrey (SF)2712-51459+3000 (t-10th)
2022Josh Jacobs (LV)246-111653+4000 (t-20th)
2021Jonathan Taylor (Ind)229-81811+900 (4th)
2020Derrick Henry (Ten)2611-52027+600 (1st)
2019Derrick Henry (Ten)259-71540+1300 (3rd)
2018Ezekiel Elliott (Dal)2310-61434+285 (1st)
2017Kareem Hunt (KC)2210-61327+20000 (t-32nd)
2016Ezekiel Elliott (Dal)2113-31631+850 (3rd)
2015Adrian Peterson (Min)3011-51485+500 (t-1st)
2014DeMarco Murray (Dal)2612-41845+3000 (12th)

Historical Hints

Longer shots led the league in rushing yards in 2013-14 when LeSean McCoy (+2500) and DeMarco Murray (+3000) came from off the pack to pace the league in rushing yards. The rushing leader came from within the top-four favorites in six of the next seven seasons in 2015-21. The one major exception happened in 2017 when Kareem Hunt (+20000) came from out of nowhere to lead the league as a third-round pick. Josh Jacobs (+4000) and Christian McCaffrey (+3000) became the fourth and fifth longer shots to lead the NFL in rushing yards in the last 11 seasons with their performances in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

The league leader in rushing yards fell below the 100 YPG pace for three straight years in 2017-19. Derrick Henry (+600) and Jonathan Taylor (+900) blew past the century mark in 2020-21, while Jacobs (97.2 rushing YPG) and CMC (85.8) fell below the century mark per game standard the last two seasons. It comes as no surprise that eight of the last 10 rushing leaders have checked in at 26 years old or younger, and four of the last five winners have checked in at 24 years old or younger. CMC broke the mold a bit last season by winning the rushing crown at 27 years old. Jacobs is the only back to play on a team that failed to reach 9+ wins in the last decade, and seven of the last 10 winners have played on teams that reached double-digit victories.

2024 NFL Most Rushing Yards Odds

The table is sorted by Fantasy Points rushing yards projection. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Passing Yards to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) as of June 28.

RunnerFP ProjectionLongest Odds for Most Rushing YardsShortest Odds for Most Rushing Yards
Christian McCaffrey (SF)1292.6+500 (FD)+275 (DK)
Jonathan Taylor (Ind)1186.4+1000 (FD)+400 (MGM)
Derrick Henry (Ten)1184.5+2000 (FD)+1000 (DK/MGM)
Saquon Barkley (Phi)1158.1+1600 (FD)+500 (MGM)
James Cook (Buf)1053.1+4000 (DK)+2500 (CZR)
Kyren Williams (LAR)1052.8+1400 (FD)+1000 (CZR)
Isiah Pacheco (KC)1043.6+2500 (DK/CZR)+2000 (FD/MGM)
Travis Etienne (Jax)972.8+3000 (DK)+2000 (MGM)
Breece Hall (NYJ)967.4+1200 (FD)+750 (MGM)
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)959.9+5000 (ESPN/MGM)+2600 (FD)
Najee Harris (Pit)949+7500 (ESPN)+3900 (FD)
Josh Jacobs (LV)923.3+2100 (FD)+1400 (MGM)
Bijan Robinson (Atl)917.0+1900 (FD)+1000 (MGM)
Zamir White (LV)910.1+3500 (FD)+2200 (CZR)
Kenneth Walker (Sea)901.3+3000 (DK/ESPN)+2500 (CZR/MGM)
Jahmyr Gibbs (Det)890.3+3200 (FD)+2000 (DK)
Joe Mixon (Hou)879.9+3300 (FD)+2800 (CZR)
Devin Singletary (NYG)877.1+10000 (DK/ESPN)+4600 (FD)
David Montgomery (Det)874.2+5000 (CZR)+3000 (MGM)
Jonathon Brooks (Car)870.5+9000 (FD)+4000 (CZR/ESPN)
De’Von Achane (Mia)868.3+2800 (CZR)+2000 (DK/MGM)
RunnerFP ProjectionLongest Odds for Most Rushing YardsShortest Odds for Most Rushing Yards
Raheem Mostert (Mia)856.1+7500 (FD)+4000 (MGM)
D’Andre Swift (Chi)840.2+5500 (FD)+5000 (DK/MGM)
Rachaad White (TB)825.7+5000 (DK)+3100 (FD)
James Conner (Ari)824.0+5000 (FD/DK)+4000 (CZR)
Lamar Jackson (Bal)797.8+7500 (ESPN)+5000 (FD)
Aaron Jones (Min)792.4+5000 (DK/ESPN)+3800 (FD)
Tony Pollard (Ten)787.8+10000 (MGM/DK)+4700 (FD)
Gus Edwards (LAC)736.7+7500 (ESPN)+4600 (FD)
Brian Robinson (Was)718.6+9500 (FD)+5000 (CZR/MGM)
Javonte Williams (Den)697.6+10000 (MGM)+4200 (FD)
Chase Brown (Cin)684.2+15000 (CZR/ESPN)+10000 (MGM)’
Zack Moss (Cin)676.6+5000 (ESPN/FD)+4500 (DK)
Jerome Ford (Cle)639.2+15000 (MGM)+6000 (FD)
Jaylen Warren (Pit)632.2+7500 (FD)+5000 (ESPN/MGM)
Nick Chubb (Cle)630.0+5000 (FD)+2200 (MGM)
Alvin Kamara (NO)628.4+6000 (FD)+3000 (MGM)
Tyjae Spears (Ten)590.6+10000 (DK/ESPN)+9000 (CZR)
Anthony Richardson (Ind)544.0+9500 (FD)+7500 (ESPN)
Ezekiel Elliott (Dal)530.6+9000 (FD)+5000 (DK)

Brolley’s Best Bets

Derrick Henry (Bal) most regular season rushing yards 2024-25 (+2000, FanDuel). Placed June 27.

Henry ranks third in our rushing yard projections but he sits eighth in the FanDuel odds to lead the league in rushing yards. He led the NFL in carries in four of his last five seasons in Nashville, and he averaged 96+ rushing YPG in four straight campaigns before Tennessee’s dismal offensive performance in 2023. He’s yet to show real signs of decline after he ranked seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.06) among 49 RBs who posted 100+ carries. Henry’s 857 yards after contact put him just 1 yard behind the league leader in the category Christian McCaffrey, who also led the league in rushing yards.

Henry will get a significant offensive line upgrade after the Ravens finished fourth in yards before contact per attempt (1.82), and the unit comes in fifth in our Offensive Line Rankings. The threat of Lamar Jackson will also open holes he hasn’t seen in recent years with the Titans. Henry was a DFS target when the Titans were projected to play with a lead as he averaged 5.0 YPC (956/4814 rushing) and a whopping 123.4 rushing YPG in 39 victories over the last five seasons. King Henry should get plenty of opportunities to be the closer on a Baltimore team that won an NFL-best 13 games last season and is lined at 10.5 wins in 2024. Henry won’t keep up his 21.2 carries per game average from 2019-23, but he’s primed to have his most efficient season since he averaged 5.4 YPC and ran for 2027 yards in 2020.

Brolley’s Leans

Jonathan Taylor (Ind) most regular season rushing yards 2024-25 (+1000, FanDuel).

Taylor has one rushing title under his belt when he posted 1811 rushing yards at 22 years old, averaging 106.5 rushing YPG and 5.5 YPC. He missed 13 games since then in 2022-23 because of ankle and thumb injuries, which limited him to 76.3 rushing YPG and 4.4 YPC in 21 appearances. He never really reaped the benefits of playing with Anthony Richardson since he played just two quarters with Indy’s dual-threat quarterback. Among 49 RBs with 100+ carries, JT still ranked ninth in yards after contact per attempt (2.92) playing behind an offensive line that ranked 10th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.64). Indy’s offensive line has all five starters back and is ranked sixth in our Offensive Line Rankings. Taylor ranked ninth in carry share (58.5%) last season, and his 2024 workload could rival the 66.5% carry share he owned when he won the rushing yards title in 2021. Trey Sermon is currently slated to be Taylor’s top backup after Zack Moss departed for Cincinnati in the off-season. It’s a great reminder that Taylor has no pressure for touches being applied behind him.

Saquon Barkley (Phi) most regular season rushing yards 2024-25 (+1600, FanDuel).

Barkley worked as a bell-cow back under New York’s three different coaching regimes, and the Eagles are likely to hand him a bell-cow role considering they paid him $26 million guaranteed. The 2018 second-overall pick will see a significant offensive environment upgrade, especially in the form of his offensive line — Philly’s unit ranks third in our Offensive Line Rankings. Barkley finished 33rd in yards before contact per attempt (1.24) among 49 RBs who saw 100+ carries, while D’Andre Swift finished eighth (2.21) and Miles Sanders led 42 RBs in the category (2.35) in 2022. Barkley has never been part of an offense that finished in the top half of the league in YPG, and he’ll be part of an Eagles offense that ranked inside in the top 8 in each of the last two seasons. Barkley reached 1300+ rushing yards and 81.0 rushing YPG twice in his first six seasons (2018 and 2022), and he has a chance to put together his most efficient rushing performance since his rookie campaign in what should be one of the league’s best offenses.

Bijan Robinson (Atl) most regular season rushing yards 2024-25 (+1600, FanDuel).

Bijan said this spring that he expects to have more of a Christian McCaffrey role with the offense transitioning from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson. He elaborated, “I’m going to be more of a runner that does everything else…It’s like run first, like what I did in college, and then still having access to go to receiver.” Robinson led all RBs with 398 routes but averaged a frustrating 12.6 carries per game with a 41% carry share (33rd) compared to Tyler Allgeier’s 10.9 carries per game and his 35.6% carry share (41st). Allgeier also finished second in fourth-quarter carries with 78 while Bijan ranked 25th in the final-frame totes with just 48.

HC Raheem Morris told the media on June 11 that the plan is to “get the ball to Bijan as much as you can in as many ideal situations as you possibly can.” Bijan certainly deserves more opportunities than Allgeier, performing better in YPC (4.56>3.67), missed tackles forced per attempt (.28>.16), and explosive run rate (4.7%>1.6%). Robinson should earn more fourth-quarter carries on a team that could win double-digit games. The Falcons have by far the easiest schedule based on season win totals (Sharp Football), and they’re lined at 9.5 wins with money going to the over. It also doesn’t hurt that Atlanta also has one of the more underrated offensive lines, which came in seventh in our Offensive Line Rankings.

James Cook (Buf) most regular season rushing yards (+4000, DraftKings).

Cook stands out as a potential longshot bet when you compare our projections to his odds to lead the NFL in rushing yards. He checks in fifth overall in our projections with 1053.1 rushing yards after he finished fourth in his sophomore campaign with 1122 yards. He ranked eighth in YPC (4.73) and third in yards before contact per attempt (2.35) among 49 RBs with 100+ carries. Buffalo’s offensive line checked in eighth in our Offensive Line Rankings after the group ranked third in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.07) last season. Cook checked in near the top of the rushing leaderboard despite ranking 28th in carry share (46.3%). His run-game workload significantly spiked after Joe Brady took over play-calling duties in Week 11. He averaged 17.0 carries per game in nine contests under Brady (postseason included) after averaging 12.0 carries per game under Ken Dorsey. He’ll have to hold off fourth-round pick Ray Davis to have any chance at reaching 250+ carries.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at a 60% clip or better in each of the last two seasons and he owned the last undefeated team out of 3000 entries in Scott Fish Bowl 12.