The 2024 NFL season is slowly starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props for the top wide receivers and tight ends. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on D.J. Moore and Xavier Worthy, plus a couple of additional wagers I considered.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Receiving Yardage Props.
I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 24 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.
2024 NFL Receiving Yardage Props
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points receiving yards projection. Target the Lowest Receiving Yard Totals for over wagers and the Highest Receiving Yard Totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best yardage totals for receivers as of June 11.
| PLAYER | FP Projection | HIGHEST YARDAGE TOTAL | LOWEST YARDAGE TOTAL |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 1595 | 1375.5 (-112, FD) | 1350.5 (-105, ESPN) |
| CeeDee Lamb (Dal) | 1455 | 1350.5 (-135, DK) | 1300.5 (-118, FD) |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 1395 | 1300.5 (-110, MGM) | 1275.5 (-110, DK) |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 1385 | 1325.5 (-110, MGM) | 1200.5 (-112, FD) |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 1215 | 1200.5 (-135, DK) | 1125.5 (-112, FD) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | 1200 | 1250.5 (-110, DK/MGM) | 1200.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 1200 | 1200.5 (-125, DK) | 1075.5 (-112, FD) |
| A.J. Brown (Phi) | 1190 | 1300.5 (-110, MGM) | 1225.5 (-112, FD) |
| Marvin Harrison (Ari) | 1175 | 1050.5 (-110, MGM) | 1000.5 (-110, DK) |
| Drake London (Atl) | 1145 | 1000.5 (-115, CZR) | 975.5 (-110, DK) |
| Jaylen Waddle (Mia) | 1065 | 1025.5 (-110, MGM) | 975.5 (-115, CZR) |
| D.J. Moore (Chi) | 1050 | 1025.5 (-110, MGM) | 950.5 (-110, DK) |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 1050 | 1175.5 (-115, MGM) | 1025.5 (-110, DK) |
| George Pickens (Pit) | 1045 | 1000.5 (-110, MGM) | 950.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 1015 | 1125.5 (-130, DK) | 1000.5 (-112, FD) |
| Davante Adams (LV) | 1010 | 1100.5 (-110, MGM) | 1000.5 (-110, DK) |
| DeVonta Smith (Phi) | 1005 | 1050.5 (-110, MGM) | 950.5 (-112, FD) |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | 1005 | 1050.5 (-110, DK) | 950.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Kyle Pitts (Atl) | 1005 | 775.5 (-115, CZR) | 750.5 (-112, FD) |
| D.K. Metcalf (Sea) | 1000 | 1025.5 (-110, MGM) | 950.5 (-112, FD) |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 975 | 750.5 (-110, MGM) | 725.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Michael Pittman (Ind) | 950 | 1025.5 (-110, MGM) | 975.5 (-112, FD) |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 945 | 900.5 (-135, DK) | 850.5 (-108, FD) |
| Tee Higgins (Cin) | 940 | 875.5 (-112, FD) | 875.5 (-112, FD) |
| Amari Cooper (Cle) | 915 | 950.5 (-110, MGM) | 925.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 915 | 875.5 (-110, DK) | 850.5 (-112, FD) |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 895 | 975.5 (-110, MGM) | 925.5 (-112, FD) |
| Sam LaPorta (Det) | 895 | 850.5 (-110, DK) | 800.5 (-112, FD) |
| PLAYER | FP Projection | HIGHEST YARDAGE TOTAL | LOWEST YARDAGE TOTAL |
| Calvin Ridley (Ten) | 890 | 885.5 (-110, MGM) | 825.5 (-112, FD) |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 880 | 925.5 (-110, MGM) | 900.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Stefon Diggs (Hou) | 855 | 1000.5 (-115, MGM) | 900.5 (-112, FD) |
| Zay Flowers (Bal) | 855 | 925.5 (-110, DK/MGM) | 875.5 (-112, FD) |
| Jameson Williams (Det) | 810 | 700.5 (-110, MGM) | 675.5 (-115, CZR) |
| DeAndre Hopkins (Ten) | 800 | 950.5 (-110, MGM) | 875.5 (-110, DK) |
| Jordan Addison (Min) | 795 | 825.5 (-110, MGM) | 775.5 (-112, FD) |
| Diontae Johnson (Car) | 790 | 825.5 (-110, DK) | 775.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 780 | 775.5 (-130, ESPN) | 725.5 (-110, DK) |
| Keenan Allen (Chi) | 775 | 850.5 (-110, MGM) | 775.5 (-112, FD) |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 770 | 725.5 (-110, MGM) | 700.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Brian Thomas (Jax) | 740 | 775.5 (-115, MGM) | 750.5 (-105, DK) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea) | 730 | 775.5 (-110, MGM) | 725.5 (-112, FD) |
| David Njoku (Cle) | 725 | 750.5 (-110, MGM) | 700.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Keon Coleman (Buf) | 720 | 750.5 (-110, DK) | 700.5 (-115, MGM) |
| Rashid Shaheed (NO) | 700 | 700.5 (-112, FD) | 675.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Tyler Lockett (Sea) | 695 | 800.5 (-110, MGM) | 700.5 (-112, FD) |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 695 | 775.5 (-110, MGM) | 750.5 (+100, ESPN) |
| Jerry Jeudy (Cle) | 680 | 750.5 (-115, CZR) | 700.5 (-112, FD) |
| Mike Williams (NYJ) | 680 | 700.5 (-110, MGM) | 650.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 660 | 600.5 (-115, MGM) | 575.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Xavier Legette (Car) | 655 | 600.5 (-175, DK) | 525.5 (-105, CZR) |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 645 | 675.5 (-130, ESPN) | 600.5 (-112, FD) |
| Rome Odunze (Chi) | 615 | 725.5 (-120, ESPN | 650.5 (-125, MGM) |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 595 | 600.5 (-110, MGM) | 550.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Dallas Goedert (Phi) | 585 | 625.5 (-112, FD) | 625.5 (-112, FD) |
| Dalton Schultz (Hou) | 580 | 525.5 (-112, FD) | 500.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Juwan Johnson (NO | 390 | 425.5 (-110, MGM) | 425.5 (-110, MGM) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
D.J. Moore (Chi) over 925.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings). Placed May 23.
Moore is looking for an encore performance this season after he set career highs across the board in his first season with the Bears. He could receive the best QB play of his career after Chicago drafted Caleb Williams first overall, but he’ll face stiffer competition for targets from Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Moore faces some uncertainty with a rookie quarterback and his distribution of targets, but Shane Waldron will run a more uptempo, pass-heavy offense than he has ever played in. The Seahawks under Waldron finished eighth in pass rate over expectation (3.6%) and third in seconds between snaps (25.5 seconds) last season. Moore has established himself as one of the NFL’s best receivers after finishing 13th in YPRR (2.46), sixth in receiving yards (1364), seventh in YAC (5757), and second in route share (89.8%) last season. Moore has reached 1150+ receiving yards in four of his last five seasons, and his lone down campaign came when he dealt with dreadful QB play during his final season with the Panthers in 2022. Moore has also remained available during his career, missing just two games and appearing on the injury report five times in his first six seasons.
Xavier Worthy (KC) under 775.5 receiving yards (-110, MGM). Placed June 11.
Worthy has seen his Underdog ADP significantly rise into the fifth/sixth round since the Chiefs traded up to select him 28th overall. He could step into a significant role immediately with Rashee Rice staring down the barrel of a lengthy suspension for his role in a street race in Dallas in late March. Worthy needs to avoid being stuck in a rotation with the likes of Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman, which Andy Reid did with Rice in the first half of last season. Worthy will slot in as the #4 receiver when the Chiefs are at full strength behind Travis Kelce, Rice, and Marquise Brown. As fantasy players know, Patrick Mahomes tends to spread the ball around behind Kelce, especially since Tyreek Hill’s departure. Worthy was comped plenty to Hill both before and after the draft. It’s noteworthy that Hill posted 593 yards on 83 targets as a rookie in Reid’s offense before his coach fully unleashed him in his second season. Fantasy drafters are selecting Worthy for his upside potential, but there are more scenarios in which he falls short of expectations and goes under his receiving yards prop. It doesn’t help that a hamstring injury has kept him out of OTAs and minicamp since the draft, which is a red flag for a receiver who relies on his speed.
Brolley’s Leans
Nico Collins (Hou) under 1050.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
Collins went from being an intriguing prospect to a full-blown star with C.J. Stroud at quarterback, finishing with 80/1297/8 receiving for 17.4 FPG (WR7) in 15 games. He previously totaled 70/927/3 receiving for 7.6 FPG in his first 24 games. The Texans rewarded him with a three-year, $72.75 million extension with $52 million guaranteed in late May. Collins is set to be paid like he’s Houston’s #1 WR, but he’s going to face stiff competition for targets from Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Diggs posted 154+ targets in each of his four seasons with the Bills for 9.8 targets per game. Collins and Dell shared nearly identical target shares (20.6% vs. 20.5%) through the first 12 weeks of last season before Dell’s season-ending injury. Houston is also set to face a much tougher schedule so Collins could see his numbers regress this season.
Michael Pittman (Ind) under 1025.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
Pittman compiled the 10th-most targets (151) and the fifth-most receptions (109) last season, but he ranked 14th in receiving yards (1152) because of his 10.6 YPR average. He also ranked seventh in first-read share (35.7%) with Gardner Minshew mostly handling quarterback duties, but that is subject to change with dual-threat QB Anthony Richardson back in the mix. The Colts selected Adonai Mitchell in the second round to give Pittman slightly more target competition after finishing fifth in target share (28.1%). I’m expecting Pittman’s targets and receptions to dip some, but my biggest concern betting the under on his receiving yards is that his aDOT (7.8 yards) and YPR will significantly rise with the big-armed Richardson at quarterback.
Kyle Pitts (Atl) over 750.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel)
Pitts owns one of the biggest discrepancies between our projection at 1005 yards and FanDuel’s line at 750.5 for a 254.5-yard difference. He should be a key cog in an Atlanta passing attack that’s set to go from the most run-heavy attack to one of the more pass-heavy offenses — the Falcons finished dead last in pass rate over expectation at -5.5% last season. New OC Zac Robinson will likely deploy heavy 11 personnel sets (3 WRs, 1 TE) coming from a Rams’ offense that ran an NFL-high 94.3% of their snaps from 11 personnel. Robinson should create more easy-access receptions for Pitts after finishing with an aDOT of 11.9 yards while failing to see a single designed target. Pitts also anticipates he’ll be better prepared for gameday this season after MCL and PCL surgeries during the 2023 off-season limited his ability to practice during the season.
Tyler Lockett (Sea) over 700.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel)
Lockett’s play is bound to fall off soon as he enters his age-32 season, but he’s shown few signs of slowing down entering 2024. He’s reached 894+ receiving yards in six straight seasons, including the last two with Geno Smith. Seattle’s new coaching staff even decided to keep him around with a restructured two-year, $29.7 million deal this off-season. Lockett should lose some ground to Jaxon Smith-Njigba after owning advantages in route share (82.6%>71.0%) and target share (20.5%>16.2%) during JSN’s rookie season. Early ADP indicates that drafters believe JSN will jump Lockett in 2-WR sets, but Lockett was the more efficient receiver in YPRR (1.70>1.39) and first downs per route run (.089>.064). Lockett should still have a big enough role and enough juice left to best this receiving yards total even if he does lose some ground to JSN.
