2023 Week 7 Top DFS Values

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2023 Week 7 Top DFS Values

NFL DFS is a tough game. But whether you are playing cash games or tournaments, you need to be acutely aware of the slate’s top values.

These are the best plays of the slate once price, matchup, median projection, and a player’s floor and ceiling are factored in.

You’ll want to maximize your exposure to these players in cash games (50/50s, head-to-head contests, etc). And you’ll be mixing these players into your tournament lineups alongside some of our favorite GPP plays – which are discussed in Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

It’s important to note that ownership will not be a factor in this article. These are simply the best values of the slate once all other variables are considered. Plays are listed in descending order of salary, but a full ranking of the slate’s best plays in order can be found in Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

QB

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $7,600 (QB4) | FanDuel: $8,000 (QB5)

Jackson hasn’t had a slate-breaking fantasy performance yet, but there are a few reasons to think one is on the horizon. His 86.2 PFF passing grade is the best single-season passing grade of his career. And Baltimore has been feeding into that with more passing – the Ravens had the 7th-lowest PROE last season (-3.7%), but that’s jumped to 12th-highest this season (+2.4%). And Jackson will need to throw in this matchup, with Detroit being a top-4 pass funnel (+6.2%). Lamar is the cash QB on FanDuel, but much more a mediocre value on DraftKings.

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (VS. ARI)

DraftKings: $6,000 (QB8) | FanDuel: $7,000 (QB12)

Smith hasn’t been a compelling fantasy asset this season, but he also hasn’t played in a top-10 matchup yet. Arizona ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+6.5 FPG) and has allowed the 6th-most passing YPG (266.3) while registering the 6th-fewest pressures. It’s an ideal matchup for Smith, who pops as a solid value on DraftKings and an even better value on FanDuel.

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (@ DEN)

DraftKings: $5,800 (QB10) | FanDuel: $7,800 (QB6)

The matchup for Love is perfect – Denver is giving up a league-high +6.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs. And no team will have a bigger pass-blocking advantage this week than the Green Bay Packers, a crucial note as unpressured dropbacks are worth 63% more fantasy points than pressured dropbacks. He’s a top-3 value on DraftKings, but closer to an average value on FanDuel.

Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos (VS GB)

DraftKings: $5,400 (QB14) | FanDuel: $7,200 (QB10)

Wilson is priced as just the QB14, and, although he’s played poorly, he hasn’t been quite as bad for fantasy. Among all active slate-eligible QBs, he ranks 6th in FP/DB (0.50) and 7th in FPG (18.2). The on-paper matchup isn’t great, but this game does offer the 2nd-highest over/under of the slate (45.0) – meaning Wilson is underpriced relative to the fantasy value this game offers on a rather dismal slate. He’s the cash QB on DraftKings, and a solid value on FanDuel.

RB

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (@ CHI)

DraftKings: $7,400 (RB3) | FanDuel: $8,000 (RB5)

Jacobs is 3rd in snap share (79%), 8th in route share (51%), 1st in targets (33), and 4th in XFP/G (19.6) among RBs this season. His usage (by XFP/G) is 11% better than last year when he finished as the RB3 by FPG. His matchup is awesome, as Chicago is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+9.1 FPG), and he should face positive gamescript as a 2.5-point favorite – an important note as Jacobs averages 23.8 FPG in wins since the start of last season. Aidan O’Connell starting might seem like a negative, but Jacobs’ largest workload of the season (28.9 XFP) came in O’Connell’s Week 4 start. He’s a cash play on both sites.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks (VS. ARI)

DraftKings: $7,000 (RB7) | FanDuel: $8,800 (RB2)

Kenneth Walker hit season-highs in snap share (76%) and carry share (76%) last week. Among slate-eligible RBs, Walker ranks 5th in XFP/G (17.2) and 3rd in FPG (18.3) – presenting clear value relative to his DraftKings salary. And he’s facing Arizona (the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for RBs) as a 7.5-point favorite. Across his career, Walker averages 19.3 FPG in wins of 5 or more points. He’s a cash play on DraftKings but only a modest value on FanDuel.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions (@ BAL)

DraftKings: $6,300 (RB11) | FanDuel: $6,200 (RB18)

Gibbs is dealing with a hamstring injury, but he is finally back at practice – granted, only in a limited capacity thus far. But if he can suit up, it’s difficult not to call him a strong value, especially on FanDuel. In the lone game David Montgomery missed (Week 3), Gibbs earned a 60% snap share, 61% of backfield opportunities, and 75% of backfield XFP. Over the full season, 75% of backfield XFP would translate to 19.3 XFP/G – an identical workload to Tony Pollard. I wouldn’t be shocked if Gibbs usage wasn’t quite that great coming off a soft tissue injury, but he logged a full practice on Friday, so I’d consider him a cash play on FanDuel and a solid value on DraftKings.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (VS. LAC)

DraftKings: $6,100 (RB13) | FanDuel: $7,400 (RB9)

Pacheco has averaged 17.4 XFP/G and 17.5 FPG since Week 3 – marks that would rank 8th-best and 10th-best among all rushers with multiple games over the full season. A big part of that is Pacheco’s expanded receiving role. He already has more catches (17) than he did all of last season (13). And he’s exceeded a 30% route share in four of his six games this season, a feat he accomplished only once in 2022. This week, Pacheco gets to face PFF’s 7th-worst graded run defense as a 5.5-point favorite. He’s the best RB value on the slate on DraftKings and can still be used in cash games on FanDuel.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. ATL)

DraftKings: $5,100 (RB20) | FanDuel: $6,100 (RB20)

Among slate-eligible RBs, Rachaad White is 4th in snap share (78%), 3rd in route share (61%), 11th in targets per game (3.4), and 10th in XFP/G (13.1). He’s clearly underpriced on both sites, but the matchup does complicate things a bit. Atlanta is the 12th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs this season (-1.7 FPG). White has underperformed this year largely because of brutal matchups, and Week 7 doesn’t look much easier…

That said, White’s price is far too low for him not to be a technical value. He’s a viable cash play on FanDuel and a strong projected value on DraftKings.

WR

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (@ KC)

DraftKings: $8,600 (WR3) | FanDuel: $9,200 (WR2)

This game offers by far the highest over/under of the slate (48.0). Allen leads all WRs in XFP/G (22.4) and ranks behind only Tyreek Hill in FPG (24.9). He's posted his two highest aDOTs of the season in the two games since Mike Williams was injured. Nothing is going to stop this man from producing, least of all Quentin Johnston. Allen is a cash play on DraftKings and a fine value on FanDuel.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams (VS. PIT)

DraftKings: $7,600 (WR6) | FanDuel: $7,300 (WR10)

Nacua has averaged a 30% target share and 17.0 XFP/G since Cooper Kupp rejoined the team in Week 5. Over the full season, a 30% target share would rank 5th-best among all players, while 17.0 XFP/G would best fantasy studs like Travis Kelce and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Nacua’s underlying usage has held up quite well despite Kupp’s return. And it has to help that he’s playing in one of the best possible matchups this week. The Steelers are the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+10.5 FPG), where Nacua runs 65% of his routes. Pittsburgh is also allowing a league-high 51% of targets to outside pass catchers, alongside the 4th-most receiving YPG (147.2), and the 5th-most end zone targets (10). Nacua is a borderline must-play in cash games on FanDuel and is still a solid value on DraftKings.

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers (VS. DEN)

DraftKings: $5,600 (WR18) | FanDuel: $6,600 (WR19)

Watson has been eased back in coming off a hamstring injury, earning a modest 56% route share and 17% target share over the last two weeks.

But Watson looked fully healthy in Week 5 – earning an absurd 70% air yard share and 50% of Green Bay’s receiving yards. And now he’s had 13 days of rest, with the Packers coming off their Week 6 bye. Let’s not forget what a fantasy cheat code Watson was in 2022…

Watson ranked 7th-best in YPRR among all rookie WRs since 2010. If touchdown-adjusted, that increases to 5th-best.

Watson remains one of the most explosive WRs in the NFL, and there may not be a better matchup than the Denver Broncos – who have allowed a league-leading 31 plays of 20 or more yards. That said, there is a risk Patrick Surtain shadows, but that risk isn’t high enough to warrant dismissing Watson as a value. He’s a top-5 WR value on both sites, and a fringe cash play.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $5,700 (WR17) | FanDuel: $6,300 (WR24)

Among all WRs, Flowers now ranks 11th in target share (27.7%), 1st in designed target rate (29.2%), and 22nd in XFP/G (14.7). He’s seen at least 9 targets in 4 of 5 games, and his two top games by air yards have come over the last two weeks. He’s a borderline cash play on FanDuel – but more of an above-average value on DraftKings.

Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals (@ SEA)

DraftKings: $5,300 (WR21) | FanDuel: $6,700 (WR17)

Brown joins Ja’Marr Chase as the only WR to rank top 25 in XFP in each of the last 5 weeks. Over this span, he ranks 3rd in air yards (648), 8th in targets (48), 9th in TPRR (0.30), 8th in XFP/RR (0.57), 9th in XFP/G (18.5), and 16th in FPG (14.9). For Week 7, Brown has a top-3 matchup against a Seattle defense allowing +10.7 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs.

He’s a glaring value (and a great cash game option) relative to his ridiculous WR21 DraftKings salary. And he remains a strong value on FanDuel – granted, not quite a cash game play.

Josh Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (@ KC)

DraftKings: $4,800 (WR26) | FanDuel: $6,500 (WR22)

Josh Palmer is averaging 14.9 XFP/G over the last two seasons in his four games with a healthy Keenan Allen, but without Mike Williams. That workload makes Palmer the 4th-best usage-based DraftKings value this week (3.1X) among flex-eligible players. Gamescript should also boost his production in Week 7, playing in the slate’s highest-total game (48.0) as a 5.5-point underdog. Palmer is a viable cash game play on DraftKings and a top-6 WR value on FanDuel.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, New England Patriots (VS. BUF)

DraftKings: $4,400 (WR30) | FanDuel: $5,800 (WR30)

Bourne ranks 18th in XFP/RR (0.49). The next-closest Patriots WR – DeVante Parker – ranks 72nd (0.27). Bourne earned an 84% route share last week, while DeVante Parker’s fell to a season-low 68% in lieu of Tyquan Thornton’s 43%. Bourne is a boom-or-bust play in a tough matchup but still a strong DFS value (especially on DraftKings, where he is a viable cash play).

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $3,800 (WR37) | FanDuel: $5,600 (WR33)

Robinson probably isn’t ever going to be a full-time player, but he did hit a season-high in route share (66%), targets (8), and yards (62) last week. He currently ranks 17th among all WRs in TPRR (0.27). He doesn’t have a ton of upside, given his low aDOT role and the only slightly above-average matchup, but he’s a clear value on DraftKings.

TE

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (VS. LAC)

DraftKings: $8,000 (TE1) | FanDuel: $8,500 (TE1)

Travis Kelce’s route share has fluctuated week-to-week as he’s dealt with injury…

But he’s still Travis Kelce – and Kelce ranks 2nd among all players in XFP/RR (0.66) and is averaging 36% more XFP/G (16.9) than the next-cloest slate-elgible TE. And Kelce is playing in by far the best game environment on the slate (48.0) total, so there’s really no reason to overthink this. He’s a solid value on DraftKings and the clear cash play on FanDuel.

Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers (@ DEN)

DraftKings: $3,300 (TE14) | FanDuel: $5,000 (TE13)

Musgrave isn’t a glaring value relative to his TE18 usage (7.9 XFP) over the last four weeks, but he does have a dream matchup. The Broncos are allowing a league-high +6.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs. On a slate with minimal TE value, Musgrave sticks out as one of the best ways to save salary at the position. He’s the preferable cash TE on DraftKings, and is cash-viable on FanDuel if you need to save salary.

If you are desperate to save even more salary, you could consider either Michael Mayer ($2,700) or Trey McBride ($2,600), who appear to be the optimal way to fully punt TE this week.

Jake Tribbey is a recent college graduate and lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from NFL DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.