2025 Week 1 DFS Early Look

The long wait is over. NFL football is finally back, and so is the best version of fantasy football: DFS. Week 1 is one of the most exciting slates of the entire season. With soft pricing, fresh rosters, and months of research finally paying off, there’s more opportunity than ever to gain an edge.

DraftKings has officially released its 2025 Week 1 salaries, which means it’s time to dive into the slate, identify the early value, and get a taste of DFS lineup building before the real action starts.

Here are the Week 1 DFS plays that immediately stood out:

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (VS. NYG)

DraftKings: $7,000 (QB1)

Pricing always resets to start the season, and that’s something to take advantage of with players like Daniels, who is at his cheapest price since Week 5. Beyond that, there is really only one narrative that matters regarding Daniels: he was knocked out of his Week 7 game early due to a rib injury. During his Week 11 game, team trainers had to glue shut an open wound on Daniels’ throwing hand. Finally, Daniels played only half the snaps in Week 18, as the Commanders’ playoff spot was by then locked in. Removing these contests, Daniels averaged an astounding 24.4 FPG in his fully healthy games, the most by a rookie QB in NFL history, or the 9th-most by any QB over the past decade. If I’m paying up at QB in Week 1, it starts and ends with Jayden Daniels.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (VS. LV)

DraftKings: $5,500 (QB14)

Maye is the 3rd-most undervalued Week 1 QB relative to his price in season-long best ball markets. Despite recording just 7 designed runs in all of 2024, Maye still finished as the QB9 over the full season in his nine full games, averaging 19.4 DraftKings FPG. And for Week 1, he draws the 10th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup from 2024 (+0.4 FPG) with an improved group of pass catchers and an OC who guided late-career Cam Newton to a career-high 9.1 rush attempts per game. If Maye’s designed rushing improves at all (which is a near lock), he’s massively undervalued in this spot.

Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets (VS. PIT)

DraftKings: $5,400 (QB15)

This is a brutal matchup against a defense that ranked as the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.0 FPG), and that shows in the Jets' 18.25 implied team total in Week 1. But let’s not forget that Fields has scored over 30.0 DraftKings points in 5 of his 44 career starts (11% hit rate), while Jared Goff (who is $1,100 more expensive) managed more than 30 DraftKings points twice last season (12% hit rate). Facing one of the NFL’s best secondaries will suppress Fields’ ownership, but he offers incredible upside relative to his cost – especially in a new offense.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $5,300 (QB16)

I’m not sure I’ve ever written up Lawrence as an appealing DFS play, but he’s just far too cheap in a Liam Coen offense. Last season, Baker Mayfield averaged 23.6 DraftKings FPG – a +49% improvement on his career fantasy output of 15.8 DraftKings FPG, or a +36% improvement on the previous season’s FPG (17.4). Any comparable improvements for Lawrence would lead to 21.6 DraftKings FPG (using last year’s numbers) or 24.9 DraftKings FPG (using Lawrence’s career numbers). Overly optimistic? Maybe – but I don’t want to significantly discount a Coen offense that averaged 29.0 PPG (4th-most) and 393.2 YPG (3rd-most) last season.

Even if we don’t fully buy into Coen’s system (or the potential improvements for Lawrence), the matchup couldn’t be much better. Carolina ranked as the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs last year (+3.3 FPG), and that’s reflected in Jacksonville’s team total (24.5, 8th-highest of all teams in Week 1). The stars are aligning for Lawrence in Week 1, and he’s likely going to be chalk as a result.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (@ SEA)

DraftKings: $7,300 (RB3)

The last time McCaffrey was this cheap was Week 2 of 2018 (2,504 days ago at the time of writing). Since joining the 49ers, McCaffrey has averaged 22.9 DraftKings FPG (2nd-best among slate-eligible RBs), and he’s gone over 21.9 DraftKings FPG (3X his Week 1 salary) in 48% of his contests. We know the ceiling is incredible – McCaffrey has three games over 40.0 DraftKings points since 2022, the most of any RB in the NFL. The game environment is also quite appealing; this game boasts a 45.5 total, ranking as the third-highest on the main slate. A cheap (and healthy) CMC is going to be a significant part of my DFS portfolio in Week 1.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (@ IND)

DraftKings: $6,900 (RB7)

Achane averaged 20.3 XFP/G and 23.1 DraftKings FPG in his 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa last season. 20.3 XFP/G is the 2nd-best usage we’ve seen from an RB in the Fantasy Points Data era (since 2021), while 23.1 DraftKings FPG is the 3rd-best production in the Fantasy Points Data era. Posting usage and production marks roughly on par with 2021 Derrick Henry or 2023 Christian McCaffrey at an RB7 price tag makes Achane one of the most obvious values at any position on the Week 1 slate.

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (@ CLE)

DraftKings: $6,600 (RB9)

We have every reason to believe Brown will see a continuation of the role that earned him 21.6 XFP/G and 20.8 DraftKings FPG from Week 10 on last year, after Zack Moss was placed on the NFI list and Samaje Perine is, well, still Samaje Perine. Keep in mind that 21.6 XFP/G would rank behind only 2021 Derrick Henry as the best workload in the Fantasy Points Data era. That incredible usage, on top of a Bengals offense that’s implied for 25.5 points (the 2nd-highest implied team total of the slate), makes Brown a screaming value – even against a Cleveland defense that ranked as the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs last season (-4.4 FPG).

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (@ NO)

DraftKings: $6,100 (RB14)

Conner and the Cardinals are 5.5-point favorites against a New Orleans team that will end up starting Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, or Jake Haener at QB in Week 1. The blowout potential here is massive, and nobody on the Arizona roster would benefit more than Conner if they run New Orleans off the field. Conner averaged 20.8 DraftKings FPG in wins last season, a mark that would rank 3rd-best among slate-eligible RBs if we extrapolated out to a full season. Even if we ignore the blowout angle, New Orleans was the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted rushing defense for opposing RBs (+2.0 rushing FPG), and they allowed the 6th-highest success rate on man/gap run concepts. Last year, Conner ranked top-15 (among 46 qualifiers) in YPC (4.9) and success rate (54%) on man/gap rushing concepts.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks (VS. SF)

DraftKings: $5,900 (RB16)

Klint Kubiak led a 29-year-old Alvin Kamara to the 5th-best FPG and single-best workload (19.3 XFP/G) of any RB last season. Why wouldn’t we expect similar from Kenneth Walker, who is a great schematic fit for Kubiak’s outside zone-heavy offense? A rushing scheme boost is great, but the target volume here could be even better. Kamara (25) earned more designed targets than 17 NFL backfields last year, and Walker just set a career-high in target share (13%) last season. That’s especially encouraging, given that Seattle is listed as 1.5-point underdogs to the 49ers, as we can feel confident that Walker will stay involved regardless of how this game plays out. Tack on a 45.5-point implied total (tied for the 3rd-highest on the slate), and this is a great opportunity to roster Kubiak’s RB1.

Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $4,600 (RB50)

Bigsby is a bit more speculative than the other RBs I’ve written up here, but it looks like he’s carved out a much bigger role in this Jacksonville offense so far in camp than his DraftKings price would imply. The best ball market has somewhat caught onto this; Bigsby is the RB50 by Week 1 DraftKings price, but the RB38 by best ball ADP (among slate-eligible players). Last season, Liam Coen’s RBs collectively averaged 30.6 FPG – making Coen’s backfield the 2nd-most valuable in fantasy, behind only Detroit. If Bigsby has carved himself out a decent role for Week 1, he’s looking at usage that’s dramatically better than his salary. Plus, we have the cherry on top – a Carolina run defense that ranked as the single softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground last year (+5.8 rushing FPG).

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons (VS. TB)

DraftKings: $6,500 (WR9)

London was nothing short of fantasy’s best WR with Michael Penix under center last season, averaging 117.3 receiving YPG, 13.0 overall targets per game, and 2.0 end zone targets per game – paces that would have led all WRs over the past four seasons. Small sample, sure – but even discounting those numbers by 30% still makes London’s $6,500 price tag seem laughable. Plus, he draws the Buccaneers (last season’s 4th-softest schedule–adjusted matchup for opposing WRs) in the highest-total game of the main slate (48.5) as a 2.5-point underdog.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions (@ GB)

DraftKings: $5,500 (WR20)

The drumbeat from Lions’ camp on Williams has only gotten louder, and it isn’t hard to argue that he’s a great option for DFS tournaments in Week 1. We know the upside is there; Williams had four games last season of at least 24.0 DraftKings points last season – the 3rd-best mark among slate-eligible WRs. He’s playing in Green Bay in a contest that’s tied for the highest total (48.5) on the main slate, and he ranks as a top-15 value in Week 1 relative to his season-long best ball ADP. Give me explosive players in explosive game environments.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers (@ JAX)

DraftKings: $5,200 (WR26)

We can’t discount the upside of a top-10 draft pick at WR in a matchup with last season’s 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+3.6 FPG). And I certainly don’t want to discount Bryce Young’s improvement last year; he ranked right behind Patrick Mahomes in catchable target percentage (75%, 19th of 37 qualifiers) and ahead of Mahomes in accurate throw percentage (54%, 16th) from Week 10 on last season. We know McMillan has the talent to record massive fantasy scores if Young can just deliver accurate throws – and a $5,200 price tag could be the cheapest we see McMillan all year.

Travis Hunter, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $5,000 (WR30)

I don’t want to waste several thousand words on the nuanced, full-season take on Hunter’s upside – Ryan Heath already laid that all out beautifully. But I do think Week 1 represents the single-best point in Hunter’s entire professional career to take a chance on him in DFS. We have absolutely no idea how Hunter will be utilized when he steps onto an NFL field, and I seriously doubt Jacksonville will telegraph that regular-season usage in training camp or preseason. That uncertainty will be directly reflected in Hunter’s ownership.

Hunter could immediately be a full-time player in an offensive scheme that generated the 3rd-most valuable routes in fantasy football last year. Better yet, he could push for 120 snaps a game as the NFL’s Shohei Ohtani. Or he could be annoyingly part-time on both sides of the ball and not really matter for fantasy football.

But we won’t know any of this until Week 1. Given the uncertainty (and the potential upside of certain scenarios), I can’t imagine a better flyer in Week 1 tournaments.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers (VS. SEA)

DraftKings: $4,900 (WR33)

The DraftKings pricing algorithm simply forgot how awesome Jennings was last year. In 2024, Jennings ranked 9th-best in 1D/RR (0.12) and 13th-best in YPRR (2.47) – two of the best and most predictive metrics for WR skill and future success. Jennings averaged 18.5 XFP/G and 30.9 FPG in his two games without Deebo Samuel (who is now in Washington) and a 25% target share in his nine games where Brandon Aiyuk was either out or injured (Kyle Shanahan noted Aiyuk would not be ready for training camp). Last season, 18.5 XFP/G would have tied Justin Jefferson for 3rd-best among WRs, while a 25% target share would have ranked ahead of Cooper Kupp for 12th-best among WRs. The best ball market certainly expects Jennings to be better than his WR33 Week 1 price tag, so why shouldn’t we?

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (@ NE)

DraftKings: $6,500 (TE1)

The opportunity cost of rostering Bowers can only be compared to similarly priced receivers, especially when Bowers occupies the easiest position to totally punt (other than defense). And if we exclude the games where Desmond Ridder (who is one of the winningest college QBs ever, but one of the worst NFL QBs ever) threw 10 or more passes, he averaged 9.5 targets per game and 79.0 receiving YPG. Among slate-eligible WRs, those numbers would rank 3rd-best (tied with Puka Nacua) and 6th-best. I generally prefer to punt TE, but paying up with Bowers is absolutely viable in Week 1.

Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ CAR)

DraftKings: $3,300 (TE21)

Strange is the most undervalued main slate TE in Week 1 relative to his full-season best ball ADP if we ignore rookies. And without Evan Engram last season, he averaged 9.2 XFP/G (TE15 over the full season), demonstrating modest, usage-based value relative to his TE21 DraftKings price tag. We can’t forget the uncertainty around Travis Hunter or the relative lack of depth among Jacksonville pass catchers after Hunter and Brian Thomas. If Hunter doesn’t end up playing much offense, Strange could pick up the slack in the same way Cade Otton did for Liam Coen when he averaged 19.8 FPG in his three games without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Carolina Panthers (VS. JAX)

DraftKings: $2,900 (TE29)

Sanders has a pretty great opportunity relative to his Week 1 DraftKings price with Tommy Tremble on PUP. In Sanders' last four games without Tremble, he averaged a 70% route share, 19% target share, 51.3 receiving YPG, and 11.6 FPG. Among all TEs over the full season, those marks would have ranked 12th-, 6th-, 6th-, and 8th-best. Sanders is undervalued in Week 1 by virtually every metric that matters if he’s out there in a full-time capacity. Plus, punting TE enables you to grab the highest-upside players at positions that offer more upside – which I’ve highlighted throughout this piece.