In yesterday’s article, we took a look at the 20 most and least consistent producers for fantasy. We determined this by first examining each player’s scoring output on a week-to-week basis and then calculating each player’s coefficient of variation (CV).
Today, I wanted to take the same approach, focusing instead on the consistency of a player’s role (rather than his production). I suspect this might be even more valuable for fantasy purposes, because it removes efficiency and touchdown luck from the equation.
To determine this, we’ll use the same methodology we used in our last article, but this time replacing fantasy points with expected fantasy points (XFP). This number is calculated by weighting the value of each carry (by down and distance and distance from the end zone) and each target (by depth of target and distance from the end zone) over a decade-plus sample based on how many fantasy points a perfectly average player would have scored with an identical workload.
Among all non-quarterbacks to average at least 10.0 expected fantasy points per game, here were the 20 least and then most consistent players (by value of volume/role) last season.
Least Consistent
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
The Saints' offense recreated Season 6 of “The Sopranos,” leaving almost no main characters alive (or, healthy in this case) by the very end. It’s difficult to have firm takeaways from a team that had Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener appear in 11 total games, and was trotting out former Birmingham Stallions’ rotational piece Kevin Austin as their WR3 by Week 13.
But I do think it’s noteworthy that Rashid Shaheed outscored Chris Olave in five of the six games they played together, and out-targeted Olave in four of six games. We need to give room to the idea that Shaheed could be outright better; in four games with Derek Carr, Shaheed beat Olave in YPRR, YAC per reception, and 1st read target share. Over the last two seasons, Olave and Shaheed have both scored over 18.0 fantasy points in 29% of their games (neither player has exceeded 25.0 fantasy points in that sample), but Shaheed (115.2 ADP) is being drafted three rounds after Olave (77.3 ADP) on DraftKings.
I’m not optimistic about the Saints’ offense this season (they are implied for the 2nd-fewest points in the NFL), but being an underdog in 16 of 17 games lends itself to pass volume. Relative to their respective ADPs, I outright prefer Shaheed, who is one of the best mid-round WR values according to our best ball rankings.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Worthy’s inconsistent usage is a bit of a mirage. If we only looked at his numbers after the Rashee Rice injury in Week 4 (and excluded a Week 18 game where Worthy ran one route), he would have ranked 50th of 94 qualifiers in usage consistency.
That’s a big part of why Worthy is such an interesting player to discuss. Rice is currently stuck in a very ambiguous suspension situation, one that would push more offensive usage to Worthy – who averaged 13.6 XFP/G (WR32) in his 11 full regular-season games without Rice, alongside a 25% target share and 22.2 FPG (12.8 XFP/G) in three playoff games.
Travis Kelce turns 36 this season, and Marquise Brown is perpetually injured. Worthy is looking at a potential último hombre situation – where there is just nowhere else for targets to go – on top of having fantastic spike week potential.
Last season, Worthy scored over 19.5 fantasy points in five of his final six games (playoffs included). This was despite a career-low 7.9% deep target rate for Patrick Mahomes (Worthy scored 48% of Kansas City’s deep receiving fantasy points) and the lowest pass rate (58%) of the Mahomes era. If Kansas City regresses toward more pass-heavy or deep target-heavy tendencies that they’ve shown in the past, Worthy is an obvious winner.
When combined with his explosive play ability, a supporting cast full of question marks, and a robust designed target role (Worthy earned the 15th-most designed targets last season), it should be no surprise we are ahead of the market on Worthy in our best ball rankings.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Flowers' usage took a dive after the Ravens’ defense made a dramatic midseason leap; in the first eight weeks of the season, Baltimore allowed 26.1 PPG, but that fell to 16.9 PPG from Week 9 on.
Consequently, that took Flowers from 15.1 XFP/G (WR13) in his first eight games to 11.9 XFP/G (WR41) in his final nine contests.
All Flowers needs to pay off his WR31 best ball ADP and WR25 ADP on ESPN is for Baltimore’s defense to not play as a top-5 unit in the NFL. And for what it’s worth, Mike Clay has the Ravens’ defense ranked 9th in his preseason unit grades.
The situational case for Flowers is incredibly strong. He’s entering his age-25 season and is coming off a sophomore campaign where he recorded 2.35 YPRR (17th) and 0.11 1D/RR (17th). He’s an undeniably great player, and he’s the clear top pass catcher on an offense that’s implied for the 2nd-most points (26.5) this season, and the most points (25.5) in the fantasy playoffs. He has one of the most robust designed-target roles in the NFL; Flowers' 21 designed targets were the 7th-most last season, providing a great floor. And he has a QB who has always run hot on TD efficiency: Lamar Jackson is responsible for two of the 11 best seasons of all-time by TD percentage. Flowers has just 9 TDs in his NFL career, but it wouldn’t take much for Jackson’s propensity for extreme TD luck to benefit Flowers in an outlier-type way in an individual season.
Flowers checks every box for me, given his ADP, and I’m happy to take shots on him in all formats.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
Hubbard’s inconsistency was purely a result of his gamescript dependency. In the four wins he was active, Hubbard averaged a 77% snap share, 17% target share, 22.5 XFP/G, and 26.9 FPG. Over the full season, those numbers would have ranked 4th, 2nd, 1st, and 1st among RBs. Compare that to losses, where Hubbard averaged a 78% snap share (3rd), 9% target share (27th), 14.7 XFP/G (16th), and 12.5 FPG (24th).
The Panthers are -130 (56% implied probability) to go over their 6.5 win total. Tack on a hyper-valuable RB1 role in Dave Canales’ offenses (which only gets more valuable in wins), and Hubbard starts to look like a tempting best ball pick – but the presence of Rico Dowdle does complicate things a bit.
Dowdle (2.64 yards after contact per attempt) was notably more efficient than Miles Sanders (1.89), which could introduce some committee risk here. But it’s worth noting that Canales’ offenses have always featured a bell cow – Rachaad White earned 77% of backfield XFP in 2023, and Hubbard earned 77% of backfield XFP in his healthy games last year. Really, drafting Hubbard is just a bet that Carolina can win a few more games than last year, and I’d gladly book that bet at his RB20 price tag on DraftKings, even with the addition of Dowdle to the backfield.
Most Consistent
Quick Hits
I already noted this in yesterday’s article, but it’s truly incredible how many RBs (16) are on the list of the most consistent players by usage. You want to prioritize playing a RB in your flex spot in managed leagues above all else.
I also have analysis on David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, and Derrick Henry in yesterday’s article.
Jonathan Taylor saw consistent usage, but wasn’t a consistent producer – and it was almost exclusively the fault of Anthony Richardson. I wrote about that here in a bit more detail, but the TL;DR is that Taylor was a high-end RB1 with Joe Flacco, but a low-end RB1 with Richardson.
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
The ESPN articles don’t faze me; I’m still drafting Kenneth Walker. Ryan Heath laid out a fantastic bull case here. That said, I view Zach Charbonnet as arguably the best possible handcuff in all formats. Walker has dealt with foot and ankle issues consistently throughout his career and is one of the most likely RBs in the first six rounds to miss time at some point this season.
In the six games Walker missed last year, Charbonnet averaged an 83% snap share (2nd-best over the full season), 15.7 XFP/G (12th), and 19.2 FPG (5th). In Week 14, Charbonnet earned the 3rd-best workload of any RB all season (31.1 XFP), scoring the 18th-most fantasy points (38.3) of any flex-eligible player. He’s undeniably an RB1 in a hyper-valuable role if anything happens to Walker.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
Let’s start with the obvious: Cook is the single-biggest TD regression candidate at the RB position. Using expected TDs (XTD), we can deduce that an average player with Cook’s workload would have scored only 9.54 TDs last season, but Cook finished the year with 18 total TDs in his 16 games. Had Cook scored TDs as expected, he would have averaged 13.5 FPG (RB21) as opposed to the 16.7 FPG (RB11) that he actually averaged. That’s the difference between being slightly less productive than Joe Mixon and slightly more productive than Rachaad White.
Cook’s raw usage wasn’t that great, either. He earned his best usage of the season (17.7 XFP) in Week 5, which would not have ranked in the top-150 games (by XFP) from a RB in 2024. But he still managed four games over 25.0 fantasy points (4th-most), thanks to his extreme TD luck.
When you play in a great offense with a rushing threat at QB, you are going to be efficient out of the backfield. I’d consider Cook an odds-on favorite to exceed his expectation again – but this is a rare case where I would view a player who earned consistent (but mediocre) usage to be significantly better in best ball (RB17 on DraftKings) than in redraft (RB13 on ESPN). I don’t trust Cook for much beyond a few spike weeks, considering he earned as many games over 15.0 XFP (4) as Alexander Mattison and Rachaad White.
Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Pittman is, admittedly, a rather boring pick. He’s scored more than 25.0 fantasy points twice over his last 43 games, and he’s faced with a QB hellscape of Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson throwing him passes. But for redraft purposes, he can absolutely have a place in your lineup.
Pittman earned 7 or more targets in 10 games last season (13th-most) despite playing in 11 games with Richardson, where the Colts’ collectively posted a 51% pass rate. Richardson recorded the league’s single-worst accurate throw rate (39.4%) last year, and – while there is still a risk he could play – it’s certainly possible he’s permanently riding the bench or is traded this season.
Keep in mind that in games with Joe Flacco, the Colts’ pass rate jumped to 60%, and that Pittman averaged 13.6 XFP/G (WR25) while playing through a back fracture. It’s not particularly sexy, but if we assume something comparable to Flacco production with Jones under center, alongside a clean bill of health, it’s easy to see Pittman beating his WR39 ADP on ESPN.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
I’m a tad surprised Robinson didn’t crack the top-5 in terms of usage consistency (like he did with production), as he joined Justin Jefferson as the only flex-eligible players to earn double-digit XFP in all 17 games last year.
And while I think Christian McCaffrey has the best odds to finish as the overall RB1 this year, Robinson is arguably the ‘safest’ Round 1 RB. We know his usage will be consistently great (Robinson finished as the RB2 by XFP/G despite ceding ~25% of snaps to Tyler Allgeier), and the offense should be too. Atlanta ran the 6th-most plays last season (63.9), generated the 8th-most yards before contact per attempt (2.03), has a top-8 offensive line, and is looking at the 2nd-best fantasy schedule (based on last season’s schedule-adjusted numbers) for their RBs.
You don’t need me to tell you this, but Robinson is also a fantastic player. He ranked 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.2) and 5th in fantasy points over expectation (+2.1). And because of his awesome consistency, he’s a great anchor RB1 in any format.
Beyond Robinson, I'm also taking a ton of Tyler Allgeier in best ball at his RB54 price tag. He benefits from every positive element of the Atlanta offense – just like Robinson – but he would go from unusable to a fringe RB1 (or better) if Robinson went down. He’s one of the best contingent upside bets at any position.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
I’m not sure we are giving Meyers enough credit for this QB upgrade (presuming, of course, the Raiders don’t acquiesce to his contract-related trade demands). The Raiders ranked 6th-worst in catchable target rate (71.7%) in 2024, while Geno Smith ranked 5th (78.2%) of the 47 QBs who threw at least 100 passes. If Las Vegas attempted the same number of passes, but had Smith as their QB last year, the result would have been +41 more catchable passes, which – on its own – likely makes up for any reduction in pass rate under new OC Chip Kelly.
Even if we assume a reduction in catchable targets, the Raiders scored just 19 passing touchdowns last season. When Smith and Pete Carroll were together in 2022 and 2023, Seattle averaged 26.5 passing TDs per season.
Any increase in offensive efficiency will only help Meyers, who had the 6th-most games of double-digit targets (6), and the 16th-most games of double-digit XFP (12) last season. We can certainly question the upside in an offense that will revolve around Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers, but Meyers – last season’s WR17 by XFP/G (14.9) – is an easy click in managed leagues at a WR36 ADP on ESPN.
