2023 Week 13 Top DFS Values

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2023 Week 13 Top DFS Values

NFL DFS is a tough game. But whether you are playing cash games or tournaments, you need to be acutely aware of the slate’s top values.

These are the best plays of the slate once price, matchup, median projection, and a player’s floor and ceiling are factored in.

You’ll want to maximize your exposure to these players in cash games (50/50s, head-to-head contests, etc). And you’ll be mixing these players into your tournament lineups alongside some of our favorite GPP plays – which are discussed in Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

It’s important to note that ownership will not be a factor in this article. These are simply the best values of the slate once all other variables are considered. Plays are listed in descending order of salary, but a full ranking of the slate’s best plays in order can be found in Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

QB

CJ Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (VS. DEN)

DraftKings: $8,100 (QB2) | FanDuel: $8,000 (QB4)

Stroud is already having the 6th-best rookie fantasy QB season ever by FPG (20.2), and that’s despite Houston ranking bottom-12 in PROE (-0.9%) through the first eight weeks of the season. The pass-heavy switch flipped for the Texans in Week 9, and they haven’t looked back since – Stroud has averaged 29.0 DraftKings FPG (QB2) and 366.5 passing YPG (1st by 42.0 YPG) over his last four games. That said, the matchup with Denver is pretty brutal; the Broncos rank as the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs since Week 5. Stroud is still a great value on FanDuel (and is right behind Tua Tagovailoa as the cash QB), but he’s a more mediocre DraftKings value, where he’s been notably priced up.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (@ WAS)

DraftKings: $7,900 (QB4) | FanDuel: $8,400 (QB2)

Tagovailoa hasn’t done much recently against a trio of bottom-12 schedule-adjusted matchups, but he’s in the perfect spot this week. The Commanders have been the league’s top pass funnel over the last five weeks (+10.1% PROE allowed), and are (by far) the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing passers this year (+7.6 FPG). Targeting QBs against Washington has been a staple of winning DFS players all year, and that won’t change in Week 13. Tagovailoa is a decent DraftKings value, but he’s our preference as the cash QB on FanDuel – where cash ownership will likely be split between him and CJ Stroud.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (@ PHI)

DraftKings: $6,100 (QB8) | FanDuel: $7,800 (QB5)

Purdy remains a screaming value. He averages 331.3 passing YPG and 25.9 DraftKings FPG against top-7 pass funnels – both slate-leading marks over the full season. By PROE allowed, the Eagles are the No. 1 pass funnel in the NFL (+7.6%), and Philadelphia is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+4.9 FPG). It’s a near-perfect spot for Purdy, who is the clear cash game QB on DraftKings this week, and a solid value on FanDuel as well.

RB

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (@ PHI)

DraftKings: $9,000 (RB1) | FanDuel: $9,800 (RB1)

Among all RBs to play in at least eight games this year, McCaffrey’s 26.1 DK FPG is +31% more than the next-closest RB (Alvin Kamara), who is only 10% cheaper on DraftKings this week. When it comes to paying up at RB, there really is no 2nd-best on this slate; McCaffrey has exceeded 20.0 DK fantasy points in 9 games this year – 4 more than anyone else. The matchup is tough, as Philadelphia ranks as the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (-5.4 FPG). And maybe that’s a reasonable argument to fade McCaffrey in tournaments, but you certainly aren’t getting away from him in cash.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $6,300 (RB14) | FanDuel: $7,500 (RB11)

White is only $700 more expensive than his Week 1 DraftKings price, despite leading all Week 12 RBs in snap share (89%), and ranking 5th in XFP (18.0) and 4th in FPG (20.1) among RBs since Week 8. The matchup is great – Carolina is the 9th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+2.0 FPG), and White should have positive gamescript as a 5.5-point favorite. He’s a cash game play on DraftKings, and a top-6(ish) value on FanDuel.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (VS. LAC)

DraftKings: $6,000 (RB15) | FanDuel: $7,300 (RB13)

Last week, following the team’s bye, Stevenson hit a season-high in snap share (78%), carries (21), and XFP (19.0). He also earned 5 targets, marking the 5th time in 6 weeks he’s seen at least that many targets. Over this span, he ranks 4th-best in target share (16.2%), behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Jahmyr Gibbs… The Chargers are a top-6 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+2.4 FPG), and the likely negative gamescript (LAC -6.0) is probably a boost for Stevenson, given his receiving role. He’s a top-5 value on DraftKings and still a solid value on FanDuel.

Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts (@ TEN)

DraftKings: $4,600 (RB28) | FanDuel: $5,600 (RB28)

Moss ($4,600) averaged an 84% snap share, 18.2 XFP/G, and 18.4 DraftKings FPG in his three games without Taylor – all top-6 marks over the full season. After starting out the season tough against the run, Tennessee has given up the 7th-most rushing YPG to opposing RBs since Week 5 (134.1), which includes 23-165-2 to Moss in Week 5. Moss is arguably the most obvious value we’ve seen this season. He’s a must-play in cash games on both sites.

WR

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (@ WAS)

DraftKings: $9,600 (WR1) | FanDuel: $10,000 (WR1)

Hill is averaging 27.5 DraftKings FPG, which is just 0.3 DraftKings FPG away from the greatest fantasy receiving season of all time (2021 Cooper Kupp). Hill has been so good that on a per-route basis, he’s been +23% more efficient than the 2nd-most efficient WR in the NFL (Brandon Aiyuk). He’s incredible, and almost certainly underpriced… But we can’t forget he is faced with a best-possible matchup. The Commanders are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+11.5 FPG), allowing the most receiving TDs (28), 2nd-most receiving yards (3,330), and the 3rd-most yards after the catch (582). He’s a priority cash game play on both sites.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (@ TEN)

DraftKings: $5,100 (WR24) | FanDuel: $6,100 (WR30)

Downs has played in 5 healthy games in which Gardner Minshew started. In those games, he averages 9.2 targets (~WR13), 16.1 XFP (~WR14), and 14.8 FPG (~WR16). And yet he’s only priced as the WR24, making him a screaming value… The matchup is more favorable for Pittman – Tennessee is something of a reverse slot funnel with slot CB Sean Murphy-Bunting fully healthy – which might be the only hole you can poke in Downs. But still, Downs is clearly one of the best values of the slate.

Greg Dortch, WR, Arizona Cardinals (@ PIT)

DraftKings: $3,700 (WR37) | FanDuel: $5,200 (WR50)

Michael Wilson is out. Marquise Brown and Trey McBride are both very banged up. Zack Pascal returned last week (not impacting Dortch’s usage) and missed practice on Thursday…Over the last two seasons, Dortch averages 14.8 FPG across the 8 games he’s run a route on at least two-thirds of the team’s dropbacks. Rondale Moore, meanwhile, averages just 9.3 FPG across his 16 qualifying games. And Dortch has a top-12 matchup, while Brown draws Joey Porter’s tough shadow coverage, which should funnel more volume in Dortch’s direction. He’s our favorite WR punt this week in all formats – especially on FanDuel.

Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $3,500 (WR39) | FanDuel: $6,000 (WR32)

I get that Moore has been disappointing this year, but he does have five games with 7-plus targets since Week 6, and he may finally have competent QB play for the first time since Deshaun Watson went down. Joe Flacco may not be elite, but he helped Moore earn 32.6 DraftKings points in their one full game together in 2021. The matchup is also favorable – the Rams are slightly slot-funnelish (although they’re mostly a TE funnel). Like most sub-$4,000 WRs, Moore is a punt that enables us to spend up elsewhere, but we also know he has the talent to convert target volume into a big fantasy score.

AT Perry, WR, New Orleans Saints (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $3,300 (WR44) | FanDuel: $5,700 (WR36)

All three of the Saints' starting WRs are either on IR or questionable for this week, leaving rookie AT Perry as an every-down player. Perry certainly has the potential to be #good – Brett Whitefield noted he offers an “A+ athletic profile” and is a “technical and nuanced route runner.” But really, the argument for Perry in DFS this week is that he’s cheap and should be out there for almost every snap (78% route share in Week 12) in a game where New Orleans will need to throw (DET -4.5). He’s a fringe cash game play on DraftKings for the salary savings he enables, but he is very far from a must-play in tournaments.

TE

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $4,100 (TE8) | FanDuel: $5,600 (TE7)

Since Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury, David Njoku has been the focal point of the Cleveland passing attack. Among TEs since Week 10, he ranks 1st in XFP/G (19.1), 2nd in first-read target share (30%), 1st in targets (32), and 4th in yardage market share (31%). The game environment is pretty gross (39.5 total), but his matchup makes up for it – the Rams are the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+2.9 FPG). The potential for Joe Flacco starting isn’t sexy, but he’s probably an improvement over Dorian Thompson-Robinson – who has ranked bottom-8 in accurate throw rate (44%) over the last three weeks. Njoku is a top-3 value on both sites.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $3,400 (TE13) | FanDuel: $4,900 (TE16)

Michael Thomas is on IR, while Rashid Shaheed (quad) and Chris Olave (concussion) both look pretty questionable, meaning there is a real chance Johnson is the team’s most capable pass catcher on Sunday. Last week, in the midst of a flurry of WR injuries, Johnson led the non-injured Saints’ players in targets (7), XFP (10.6), and route share (85%). It’s a neutral on-paper matchup, and crucially – Johnson allows you to pay up at more premium positions. He’s a top-2 TE value on DraftKings and a top-3 value on FanDuel.

Brevin Jordan, TE, Houston Texans (VS. DEN)

DraftKings: $2,500 (TE25) | FanDuel: $4,300 (TE43)

Per sources, C.J. Stroud likes Jordan, who will be playing “a ton” this week, and the team hates Teagan Quitoriano’s guts. So – even if he sucks – he will at least be stepping into a role that led Dalton Schultz to 12.9 FPG since Week 4 (~TE5). Tank Dell and Noah Brown are both badly banged up, and Patrick Surtain could neutralize either Dell or Nico Collins… Denver has toughened up in recent weeks, but they’ve still given up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs across the full season (+3.6).

Jake Tribbey is a recent college graduate and lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from NFL DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.