Top Week 14 DFS Values


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Top Week 14 DFS Values

During my first few seasons playing DFS, I got crushed. Lineup after lineup, slate after slate, I just couldn’t do anything right. I was hemorrhaging my hard-earned money, and I really didn’t have much to spare. Just like those late-night infomercials, I had to find a better way!

I was making far too many mistakes to list them all here, but what I really needed then was a guiding hand, a voice (or an article perhaps?) that could, at the very least, help me understand who the best plays were, and more importantly — why?

This is that article.

Once I found Fantasy Points, and this article, everything changed. With a deeper understanding of which players are values (and why), I was able to make great strides in my own DFS play. And now, I’m writing this article.

Utilizing both Scott Barrett’s DFS SuperModel and our site projections, we can lock in on the week’s top DFS values.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (VS. MIN)
DK: +$523, 3.12X / FD: +$517, 2.46X

This season Goff is averaging 20.9 FPG at home (would rank 7th-best), and 9.3 FPG on the road (would rank 42nd-best). Well, good news! Goff is at home this week, playing behind the 3rd-highest implied point total of the week (27.5), and up against a Vikings defense that’s given up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted passing FPG to opposing QBs over the last 6 weeks (+4.0).

Three of Goff’s four best DraftKings scores have come when his implied team total is 27.0 or higher. He averages 21.1 DraftKings FPG in those games, which ranks 6th-best among slate-eligible QBs. Priced as the QB11 ($5,600) on DraftKings, Goff is the clear top-value QB of the week.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings (@ DET)
DK: 2.05X / FD: 1.61X

Dalvin Cook is back to being a bell cow, granted he hasn’t had the ceiling performance to quite drive that home in the minds of fantasy players.

Over his last six games, Cook has exceeded 20.0 XFP four times, averaging 18.6 XFP/G and 4.3 targets per game. In his first six games, Cook never exceeded 20.0 XFP and averaged just 2.7 targets per game.

So, the workload is outstanding. And the game environment is damn near perfect, with this game touting the highest total (by 5.0 points) of the main slate at 51.5. Cook averages 22.1 DraftKings FPG across his career in games with a total of 50.0 or higher – a mark that leads all slate-eligible RBs.

So, Cook is seeing some of the best volume of the slate in by far the best scoring environment of the slate. He’s egregiously underpriced at $7,300 (RB5) on DraftKings and is an obvious value this week.

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (VS. CLE)
DK: 2.09X / FD: 1.55X

On the season, Mixon is the RB2 by XFP/G (19.2) – besting players like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs. Mixon has also performed far better in Bengals wins, averaging 20.6 FPG (RB3) – an important note given the Bengals' 72% implied win probability.

And the Browns have been an extremely exploitable matchup for opposing RBs this season, ranking 3rd-worst in PFF’s run defense grades (34.6), 4th-softest by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+3.3), 2nd-worst in yards before contact per attempt (2.1), and 8th-worst by explosive play% (6.5%). This is a smash spot for the veteran RB.

Tony Pollard, RB Dallas Cowboys (VS. HOU)
DK: 2.25X / FD: 1.85X

Tony Pollard has earned 50% of backfield XFP over the last three weeks compared to 42% for Ezekiel Elliott. So Pollard’s usage is only slightly better, but he’s drastically more efficient.

Among RBs with at least 100 rushes, Pollard ranks 1st in explosive play% (10.1%), 2nd in YPC (5.8), 1st in yards after contact per attempt (4.0), and 1st in YPC on runs without backfield contact (8.7). Elliott ranks 25th, 24th, 32nd, and 26th in those same categories, respectively (of 38 qualifiers).

And the matchup is near-perfect. Houston is the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+5.5 FPG), allowing the 2nd-most YAC (1,174), and the most missed tackles (107). So, we love Pollard as a top-4 RB value this week. But there’s also reason to fade Pollard in favor of the much lesser-owned Ezekiel Elliott in GPPs, given he draws the same elite-tier matchup at comparable usage (granted, much worse efficiency).

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ TEN)
DK: 2.22X / FD: 1.68X

Travis Etienne is back to being the highest-end bell cow. In his four games prior to injury, Etienne was averaging 20.0 FPG, 20.0 XFP/G, and 5.5 red zone opportunities per game. Over the full season, those numbers would rank 3rd, 2nd, and 1st among all RBs.

The matchup is difficult (Tennessee is the 10th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs), but Etienne more than makes up for it with excellent efficiency (5.4 YPA) and elite, bell cow usage when healthy. He’s aggressively underpriced on both DFS sites (RB9 on DraftKings by salary and RB11 on FanDuel), which translates to him being one of the top RB values of the week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (VS. MIN)
DK: 2.67X / FD: 1.95X

Excluding games where Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered an injury or was on the injury report listed as questionable, he’s averaging 10.9 targets and 24.6 FPG over his last 13 games. He’s hit at least 15.0 fantasy points in 12 of 13 and double-digit targets in 11 of 13. Over the full season, 24.6 FPG would lead all WRs (by 2.0 FPG), and 10.9 targets per game would rank 2nd.

There is an incredibly strong argument to be made that Amon-Ra St. Brown is this year’s Cooper Kupp. Last season, Kupp’s average DraftKings price in his final eight games was $9,300 – $1,500 more than St. Brown’s Week 14 price tag. He’s a truly elite value in the best game of the slate (51.5 total).

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (@ BUF)
DK: +$477, 2.49X / FD: 1.69X

Last week Garrett Wilson gained 162 yards (2nd-most) on 253 air yards (most), 15 targets (most), and 29.0 XFP (most). He’s a league-winner without Zach Wilson under center…

And for DFS, he’s glaringly underpriced as the WR16 on DraftKings and the WR13 on FanDuel. Especially against a Bills’ defense that’s been the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup against opposing outside WRs since Week 6 (+3.1 FPG). He’s right there with Amon-Ra St. Brown as a cash game lock and the top WR value of the slate.

DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers (@ SEA)
DK: +$429, 2.11X / FD: 1.39X

Moore earned a 62.8% yardage market share in Week 12, immediately prior to their bye, which ranks as the 5th-highest mark by any WR in any week this season. Over the last two seasons, Moore averages 14.9 FPG (~WR16) on a 27.1% target share (~WR10) with Sam Darnold, as opposed to only 8.1 FPG (~WR68) on a 20.4% target share (~WR33) with Baker Mayfield under center.

The matchup isn’t exactly favorable, with Seattle ranking as the 10th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-3.5 FPG) since Week 8. But, the volume Moore projects for at his $5,500 DraftKings price tag still makes him a high-end WR value, granted, not a strong-enough one to be considered a priority play for cash games.

Kendall Hinton, WR, Denver Broncos (VS. KC)
DK: +$897, 3.00X / FD: 1.61X

Courtland Sutton hasn’t practiced this week, while Jerry Jeudy is limited. If one of both of the Broncos' top WRs miss this contest, that will leave Kendall Hinton as the clear top WR.

Over his last four games with one of Sutton or Jeudy limited or out, Hinton has averaged 4.5 targets per game, 7.7 FPG, and 7.5 XFP/G – marks that aren’t impressive on their own, but certainly present value relative to Hinton’s rock bottom $3,400 DraftKings price tag.

And the matchup is favorable, with Kansas City ranking as the 8th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+4.5) since Week 10. Fire up Hinton as the top salary-saving option at WR in a spot where Denver will surely need to throw as 9.5-point underdogs.

Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos (VS. KC)
DK: +$1,177, 2.79X / FD: 1.39X

Dulcich leads all TEs in deep targets per game (1.7) and ranks 3rd among slate-eligible TEs in air yards per game (67.1) and 8th in XFP/G (9.5). So, his current workload already presents obvious value relative to his TE11 price tag on DraftKings ($3,400).

It certainly helps the Broncos are 9.5-point underdogs, suggesting a pass-heavy approach for the Broncos. And, a pass-heavy approach for Denver should center around Dulcich, with Courtland Sutton likely to miss this contest and Jerry Jeudy questionable.

So, roster Dulcich as the top value TE of the slate in all formats in an above-average matchup against a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the 12th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+0.5) to opposing TEs this season.

Jake Tribbey is the 2022 FSWA Football Writer of the Year and the leading Spring Football expert in the fantasy industry. He is a lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.