Week 13 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 14 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 14 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.
Here are the plays that jump out to me for Week 14 DFS:
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (VS. MIN)
DraftKings: $5,600 (QB11) | FanDuel: $7,100 (QB11)
Goff has been drastically more effective at home this season, averaging 23.0 FPG (QB4) compared to just 12.0 FPG (QB33) on the road. And I’m certainly excited to play him at home in what should easily be the most explosive offensive game of Week 14 (53.5 total), especially once we factor in the elite matchup.
The Vikings are the 9th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+1.9 FPG), allowing the 3rd-highest completion percentage over expectation (+5.1%), the most passing yards (3,226), and the 10th-most fantasy points per dropback (0.45).
So, Goff has everything going for him this week. An elite matchup, the best total of the slate, and a home game in Detroit. Expect him to be one of the most popular QB options of Week 14.
Tyler Huntley, QB, Baltimore Ravens (@ PIT)
DraftKings: $5,500 (QB13) | FanDuel: $7,000 (QB12)
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is "week to week" with a knee injury, coach John Harbaugh said. He said it's less likely that Jackson will play Sunday at the Steelers but wouldn't rule it out.— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 5, 2022
Lamar Jackson is dealing with a knee injury, setting up Tyler Huntley’s first potential start of the season. In Huntley’s four starts last season, he averaged 18.3 FPG (with a high of 35.9), 9.3 carries per game, and 61.0 rushing YPG. This season, those numbers would rank 11th (ahead of Justin Herbert), 3rd (ahead of Josh Allen), and 3rd (ahead of Jalen Hurts).
In other words, Huntley is an elite rushing threat and easily the cheapest Konami code QB we can roster in Week 14. His floor is low (under 12.0 fantasy points in half his starts), but his ceiling is comparable to QBs who cost $2,000 more on DraftKings. He’s an exciting tournament option this week.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (VS. CLE)
DraftKings: $6,900 (RB6) | FanDuel: $8,500 (RB3)
Mixon didn’t clear concussion protocol ahead of Week 13, but given how close he was to suiting up, there seems to be little doubt that he will play this week.
On the season, Mixon is the RB2 by XFP/G (19.2) – besting players like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs. Mixon has also performed far better in Bengals wins, averaging 20.6 FPG (RB3) – an important note given the Bengals' 72% implied win probability.
And the Browns have been an extremely exploitable matchup for opposing RBs this season, ranking 3rd-worst in PFF’s run defense grades (34.6), 4th-softest by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+3.8), and 4th-worst by explosive play% (7.0%). Assuming Mixon clears concussion protocol, this is a smash spot for the veteran RB.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys (VS. HOU)
DraftKings: $6,700 (RB8) | FanDuel: $7,500 (RB10)
Week 13 snap and touch percentages for Dallas Running Backs:— Al Smizzle (@AlZeidenfeld) December 5, 2022
📍 Ezekiel Elliott 53.8% of snaps, 54.1% of RB touches
📍 Tony Pollard 43.1% of snaps, 37.8% of RB touches
I hate it here
Pollard isn’t dominating backfield usage, still stuck in a gross committee with Ezekiel Elliott. But Pollard is the most efficient RB in the NFL, averaging 5.8 YPC (2nd), 4.1 yards after contact per attempt (1st), and a league-leading explosive play% (8.8%).
And if there’s one thing we can say about the Houston Texans defense, it’s that they are remarkably efficient to rush against. This season, the Texans have allowed the 6th-most YPC (4.9) and the 7th-most yards after contact per attempt (2.8) while grading out as PFF’s 4th-worst run defense (36.7 team run defense grade). In other words, this is the perfect matchup for a hyper-efficient RB like Pollard.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ TEN)
DraftKings: $6,400 (RB9) | FanDuel: $7,400 (RB11)
Didn't show up in the box score (7.6 fantasy points) but Travis Etienne had an awesome role coming back from injury:— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) December 5, 2022
88% of snaps
94% of backfield touches
100% of backfield red zone touches
73% of backfield routes
Travis Etienne is back to being the highest-end bell cow. In his four games prior to injury, Etienne was averaging 20.0 FPG, 20.0 XFP/G, and 5.5 red zone opportunities per game. Over the full season, those numbers would rank 3rd, 2nd, and 1st among all RBs.
The matchup is difficult (Tennessee is the 9th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs), but Etienne more than makes up for it with excellent efficiency (5.4 YPA) and elite, bell cow usage when healthy. He’s aggressively underpriced on both DFS sites, which should translate to him being one of the more popular RB plays of Week 14.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions (VS. MIN)
DraftKings: $5,800 (RB15) | FanDuel: $7,200 (RB13)
In Week 13, Swift led the backfield with a 51% snap share, 18 opportunities, and 6 red zone opportunities – scoring 21.1 fantasy points (his best game since Week 1). If we assume Swift is back to full health (which appears extremely likely based on his recent usage), then he’s easily one of the best RB plays of Week 14.
Why? Well, Minnesota is the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs through the air (+2.6 FPG), and this game touts the highest total of the week (53.5), setting up what should be an explosive offensive performance on both sides of the ball. Seven of Swift’s 10 best career games have come in contests with a total of 48.0 or more, and he averages 22.1 DraftKings FPG in games with an implied team total over 26.0 (the Lions’ implied team total this week is 27.25). It’s difficult not to love Swift in Week 14 GPPs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (VS. MIN)
DraftKings: $7,800 (WR5) | FanDuel: $8,600 (WR3)
Excluding games where Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered an injury or was on the injury report listed as questionable, he’s averaging 10.9 targets and 24.6 FPG over his last 13 games. He’s hit at least 15.0 fantasy points in 12 of 13 and double-digit targets in 11 of 13. Over the full season, 24.6 FPG would lead all WRs (by 2.0 FPG), and 10.9 targets per game would rank 2nd.
There is an incredibly strong argument to be made that Amon-Ra St. Brown is this year’s Cooper Kupp. Last season, Kupp’s average DraftKings price in his final 8 games was $9,300 – $1,500 more than St. Brown’s Week 14 price tag. He’s a truly elite value in the best game of the slate (53.5 total).
Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets (@ BUF)
DraftKings: $3,500 (WR50) | FanDuel: $5,400 (WR48)
Jets WRs with and without Zach Wilson:— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) November 28, 2022
Elijah (w/ Wilson): 5.1 FPG, 4.4 targets/G, 22.5 YPG
Elijah (no Wilson): 14.9 FPG, 7.3 targets/G, 61.0 YPG
Garrett (w/ Wilson): 8.4 FPG, 5.6 targets/G, 45.6 YPG
Garrett (no Wilson): 17.1 FPG, 11.3 targets/G, 71.3 YPG
We knew getting Zach Wilson out of the lineup would be huge for the New York offense and these receivers. But it was still difficult to pull the trigger on Elijah Moore ahead of Week 13 given his very concerning 40% route share in Week 12. Thankfully, Moore looks like a true full-time player again:
Didn't show up in the box score. But huge role change for Elijah Moore yesterday. #Jets routes run on 59 Mike White dropbacks:— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 5, 2022
* Garrett Wilson 54
* Corey Davis 47
* Elijah Moore 45
* Denzel Mims 13
* Braxton Berrios 12
Elijah was in the slot on 42 of his 58 snaps.
Remember that the 14.9 FPG and 7.3 targets per game Moore has averaged without Wilson would rank 17th and 29th among all WRs this season. So, if we assume his full-time role sticks, he’s probably the 2nd-most obvious WR value of the slate (after St. Brown). And, New York should be forced to throw early and often as 9.0-point underdogs against a Buffalo defense that’s been the 10th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs since Week 8 (+2.1 FPG). Expect Moore to be the default salary-saving option at WR this week.
TJ Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings (@ DET)
DraftKings: $5,100 (TE3) | FanDuel: $6,500 (TE3)
Hockenson has been the Vikings' No. 2 receiver since joining the team, earning 38 targets and 30 receptions (both 2nd-most) while averaging 11.7 FPG (4th-most among TEs over the full season). So Hockenson’s volume is great, but what makes him a compelling play in Week 14 is just as much about matchup and game environment as it is his current workload.
The Lions are the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+4.0 FPG), allowing the 4th-most FPG (14.4), the 2nd-most TDs (8), and the 9th-most receiving yards (649). The game total is 53.5 – 6.5 points more than the next-closest slate-eligible game. Expect Hockenson to draw significant ownership in an elite matchup this week.