Tennessee Titans (2-2, 2-2 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4, 1-3), 1 p.m.
Brolley’s Titans Stats and Trends
The Titans won both games against the Jaguars last season, but they split their contests against the spread.
The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite, and they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Tennessee has played over the total in four straight road games.
Derrick Henry is averaging 32.0/150.7 rushing per game with four touchdowns in the last three weeks, and he already has more receiving yards than he had all of last season with 14/125 receiving on 15 targets. The Jaguars are allowing 1.3 rushing TDs per game but they’re giving up just 3.4 YPC to RBs through four weeks.
A.J. Brown and Julio Jones will need to be monitored this week after they missed last week with hamstring injuries. Julio likely has the better chance to return since his injury appeared to be less severe. The likes of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (49 routes, 3/29 receiving), Josh Reynolds (48, 6/59), and Chester Rogers (45, 5/63) finished as Tennessee’s top route runners last week in their overtime loss to the Jets. The Jaguars are giving up the third-most receiving yards per game (223.0) to WRs and they’re averaging 14.4 YPR.
Ryan Tannehill muscled out 18.8 FP last week with a skeleton crew at receiver, and he’s going to need Julio and/or Brown to have a chance for a ceiling game. The Jaguars have given up between 19.5-23.6 FP to QBs through the first four weeks.
Anthony Firkser saw his first action since Week 1, posting 3/23 receiving on five targets while running a route on a promising 72% of Tannehill’s dropbacks. The Jaguars have been vulnerable to TEs in the early going, and C.J. Uzomah posted 5/92/2 receiving for an undermanned Bengals’ receiving corps last week.
Brolley’s Jaguars Stats and Trends
The Jaguars have lost 19 straight games outright but they got their first ATS cover with Trevor Lawrence last week.
Jacksonville has played under the total in four straight games as an underdog.
Carlos Hyde was a surprise inactive in Week 4 with a shoulder injury, and James Robinson took full advantage of a bigger workload against the Bengals. He finished with 18/78/2 rushing and he added a two-yard loss on his lone catch on two targets to finish with 20.6 FP. He played on 95% of the snaps after seeing a season-best 21 touches in Week 3, so there’s some hope that Urban Meyer is finally getting the idea that Robinson should be seeing way more touches than Hyde. The Titans are giving up 114.5 scrimmage yards per game and 1.0 TDs per game to RBs so far.
D.J. Chark suffered a season-ending fractured left ankle in Jacksonville’s Week 4 loss to the Bengals, which will likely be his final game with the Jaguars if Meyer lasts more than a season with the organization. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault will see small target boosts moving forward, and Jones could potentially see more of Chark’s vacated downfield shots. Even with Chark leaving early in Week 4, Jones flopped with just 3/24 receiving on three targets (13% share) against the Bengals, but he should be an upside WR3 moving forward with Tavon Austin stepping into the lineup in three-WR sets (yes, he’s still in the league). Corey Davis posted 4/111/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
Shenault already reaped the benefits of Chark’s absence in Week 4, posting a career-best 99 receiving yards on six catches and seven targets (29% share). Laviska came into Week 4 with just 98 receiving yards so he’s suddenly back in the WR3 conversation against the Titans this week after a slow start. Jamison Crowder posted 7/61/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
Trevor Lawrence takes a small hit with Chark out of the lineup, but he had his best performance of the season without him last week against the Bengals. He posted season-highs in completion percentage (70.8%) and YPA (8.5), but he failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in his career — he at least didn’t throw a pick for the first time. Zach Wilson posted 297/2 passing against the Titans last week.
Dan Arnold caught both of his targets for 29 yards against the Bengals, and he promisingly played 32% of the snaps right out of the gates despite having just two days to prepare for his Jaguars’ debut. He should be more comfortable in the offense this week but ht eTitans are giving up the fewest FPG (2.1) to TEs in the early going.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 27.4 (12th)
Plays per game: 82.3 (1st)
Pass: 58.2% (21st) | Run: 41.8% (12th)
Pace: 28 (15th)
Plays per game: 63.3 (25th)
Pass: 63.7% (10th) | Run: 36.3% (23rd)
Spoiler alert: This is yet another huge spot for King Henry to hit a massive ceiling. We want some Henry action every time the Titans are favored and last week Henry came through once again for 177 scrimmage yards and a score. If the Jaguars can muster up anything on offense, there is shootout appeal here with the Titans faltering defense allowing points in spades. Dating back to last year, the last 12 Titans contests have averaged a monster 58.6 total points per game with 10-of-12 games going over 50 combined points. It’s just impossible to trust the Jags’ to be able to exploit the Titans weaknesses with the Urban Circus in town.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
Over the last three weeks, Derrick Henry has carried the ball an average of 32 times. In return, Henry has manufactured 33.9 FPG. His ceiling is also higher than previous season’s since he’s actually providing efficiency as a receiver, ranking 11th in YPRR (1.79), and ninth in YPT (8.93). Jacksonville is a disaster on defense on the field and another individual has brought down far too much attention to the franchise off it. The Titans are a comfortable favorite to take this game. A looming Tennessee victory is always enough of an occasion for heavy Henry exposure, and with a potential forecast for otherworldly FPG numbers.
After DJ Chark Jr. broke his ankle early in Week 4, Jacksonville split his vacated perimeter reps between Tavon Austin (16) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (7). But it was Shenault who stepped up, turning those routes into a 3/31/0 line on three targets. Austin flopped with a 1/8/0 line on his three targets. But Laviska will have a path to value no matter where he lines up, perhaps more so from his typical slot alignment. The Titans are accrediting the most FPG to receivers out of the slot this season (33.0). And we could not ask for a better matchup for Shenault.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
I mean, just take a look at the Titans’ injury report up above. It doesn’t get any more pathetic than that.
The good news for Tennessee is that AJ Brown (hamstring) will play in Week 5 after missing last week, because they won’t have Julio Jones again and Week 4 route leader Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is questionable, both with hamstring injuries. Brown has been one of fantasy’s biggest buzzkills, but Ryan Tannehill needs him against a bad Jag secondary.
Tannehill was playing with one hand tied behind his back against the Jets last week, but his performance was just a continuation of what has been a slow opening month. Even in what basically amounted to a 5 quarter game, Tannehill only managed to score 16.8 FP as he went 30-of-49 passing for 298 yards and 1 TD. This marks the third time that Tannehill was held under 17 FPs this season – which is a bar he crossed in 11-of-16 games last year. There are just more appealing options.
You know what to do this week with Derrick Henry. He has dominated the Jags in his career — only Eddie George has more career rushing yards against Jacksonville, but Henry’s 11 TD are most — and only the Chiefs and Texans have allowed more rushing TD than the Jags this year.
The Jags have injury problems at the receiver position as well, with DJ Chark out for the season with an ankle injury. That will open more opportunities for Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones. Jones bombed last week and most of Shenault’s production came on a broken play and spectacular throw from Trevor Lawrence, but Wes pointed out above why we should be bullish on Shenault in this matchup. (It’s still a good matchup for Marv too, just not as pristine for Shenault.) I like both as WR3s.
Jaguars OC Darrell Bevell says there will be a bigger role for Laviska Shenault with DJ Chark out (also said some more playtime for Jamal Agnew).— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) October 7, 2021
Carlos Hyde was a surprise inactive in Week 4 with a shoulder injury, and James Robinson took full advantage of a bigger workload against the Bengals. He finished with 18/78/2 rushing and he added a two-yard loss on his lone catch on two targets to finish with 20.6 FP. He played on 95% of the snaps after seeing a season-best 21 touches in Week 3, so there’s some hope that Urban Meyer is finally getting the idea that Robinson should be seeing way more touches than Hyde. Let’s hope Urbz isn’t too preoccupied with other stuff to realize he needs Robinson and the run game, especially without Chark.
While he’s not a fantasy option yet, one guy I’m intrigued to see going forward is Jags TE Dan Arnold, who played just 32% of the snaps last week… but that was just three days after being traded to the Jags. His role should increase.