ADP Trends: Mid-August

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ADP Trends: Mid-August

At the end of the day, fantasy is a game about a game and the path to winning starts with exploiting prices. In my opinion, the only way to get a useful idea of what real prices are is by using ADP data from actual leagues where players have skin in the game. That’s unlike ADP sourced from Big Brand sites that run non-competitive mock drafts where there is always some jabroni that takes five straight quarterbacks and then a kicker in the 6th round. You’re not doing yourself any favors wasting time with that.

The BB10 ADP tool is completely free and has filters where you can get fresh data daily. And even though best ball is a different game than season-long managed leagues, the fact that our competitors have skin in the game and the format is so similar to most leagues (PPR / start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX, and 1 D/ST) makes it the most reliable ADP around.

Here are the biggest risers and fallers over the last month:

Risers

Marquez Callaway (WR, NO) — Up 31 spots to 190 overall (16th round)

Callaway has become an increasingly trendy late-round pick with the fallout of Michael Thomas’ latest issues with his balky ankle. The Saints have the thinnest receiver depth chart in the league and Callaway stands to benefit most from the void in targets that Thomas has left behind. For as long as Thomas is out, the Saints have no other choice but to rely on Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith as their No. 1 and No. 2 wideouts.

Bryan Edwards (WR, LVR) — Up 13 spots to 193 overall (17th round)

The Raiders 3-WR group is set: Edwards is the X-receiver, Henry Ruggs is the flanker, and Hunter Renfrow is the slot man. Meanwhile, John Brown is going to mix in some sort of rotational role in all three spots. Edwards is having a great Training Camp and that buzz is a large part of the reason his ADP is on the rise. Still, Edwards’ path to targets is murky. Darren Waller is the No. 1 receiver here by a wide margin and the Raiders are a run-first team.

Elijah Moore (WR, NYJ) — Up 11 spots to 134 overall (12th round)

The rocketship continues to go higher and higher. While Moore has been one of the most hyped rookies all offseason, he’s still going too late in drafts. There is still plenty of value here. Moore is dealing with a mild quad strain and the hope is he’ll be able to get some snaps in the Jets final preseason game next week. We’re still all over Moore as a league-winner.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) — Up 10 spots to 77 overall (7th round)

No surprise here. Aaron Rodgers’ ADP has risen by about a full round since the start of Training Camp. Now, Rodgers is due for TD regression, but that is somewhat baked into his 7th round price. Over the last 10 years spanning the 2010-19 seasons, 35 qualifying quarterbacks had a touchdown rate (TDs divided by attempts) of 6% or higher in a single-season. The following year, 30-of-35 (that’s 85.7%) have seen their TD rate fall in the following season. In 2020, Rodgers’ 9.1% TD rate led the NFL.

Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA) — Up 8 spots to 153 overall (13th round)

After dealing with numerous setbacks from a 2019 ACL tear, Penny is finally starting to get healthy. HC Pete Carroll is hopeful that Penny can play in the Seahawks upcoming preseason game against the Broncos. Penny is not a shoo-in for the No. 2 job behind Chris Carson, but he is the favorite over Alex Collins and Travis Homer.

Fallers

Carson Wentz (QB, IND) — Down 16 spots to 171 overall (15th round)

Coming off of foot surgery, Wentz is no safe bet to start Week 1. The Colts are going to be a ball-control, run-first offense meaning Wentz didn’t have much upside to begin with even before his latest injury. He is completely off our board.

Michael Thomas (WR, NO) — Down 15 spots to 60 overall (6th round)

Unlikely to return to the field in the opening month, Thomas’ ADP has slid a round and a half since the start of August and will continue to freefall for the rest of draft season. The problem with Thomas is multifaceted and it seems like he’s on thin ice with the Saints after there was some miscommunication about how he should go about his injured ankle. Not only is Thomas in the second year dealing with this injury, he’s left in a questionable situation with a QB change that is still up in the air. With a completely unclear timeline for return, Thomas is an easy player to avoid in the 6th round. Thomas will likely end up being a headache all year because the Saints will likely take it easy on him when he can return to practice to make sure he doesn’t have any more setbacks. And when he does return, there is no guarantee he’s going to be nearly the same producer. I’d only consider drafting Thomas in the double-digit rounds as a WR5 if, and only if, I have an I.R. spot to stash him in.

Curtis Samuel (WR, WAS) — Down 11 spots to 101 overall (9th round)

Even though Samuel has not practiced yet, it sounds like Washington is just taking it slowly with their key free agent signing. There is a rumor going around that Samuel’s groin injury isn’t overly serious. We’ll see. Samuel likely needs two to three weeks of practice to have a somewhat normal role by Week 1 and we’re approaching that window. Samuel was activated off of the PUP list on August 15th and that clears a path for him to get in some action for the team’s final preseason game.

Michael Pittman (WR, IND) — Down 11 spots to 115 overall (10th round)

Everyone is scared of the Colts passing game with Carson Wentz’s foot injury and for good reason. Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger making starts isn’t going to cut it. T.Y. Hilton’s ADP has slid too (he’s down 6 spots), but not to the extent that Pittman’s has. Honestly, Pittman’s slide was overdue. He’s been overpriced all offseason regardless of Wentz’s health.

Kenny Golladay (WR, WAS) — Down 8 spots to 64 overall (6th round)

The Giants are taking it slowly with their $72-million receiver after he injured his hamstring in the first week of Training Camp. Golladay is off doing some work on the side this week, but it doesn’t seem like he’s particularly close to returning in time to see any preseason action. Keep in mind, Golladay dealt with hamstring and hip issues that kept him off of the field all of last year. There is a real chance this issue bleeds into Week 1 the longer Golladay stays out and I’ve taken him off my target list because of it. Not only does he present injury risk, he’s had basically zero time to mesh with Daniel Jones. His moderate ADP dip isn’t a big enough value.

DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) — Down 7 spots to 94 overall (8th round)

Ok, some positive news! After a mild knee sprain kept him out, Devonta Smith is back! Joe Flacco stunk up Lincoln Financial Field against the Patriots on Thursday night, but Smith’s route quickness and separation ability was apparent. I’ve been a bit tame on Smith in the 7th round of drafts all summer, but this seems like a great time to buy the dip.

D.J. Chark (WR, JAX) — Down 7 spots to 79 overall (7th round)

Chark needed surgery to fix a hairline fracture in the first week of August and it has kept him out of practice and the preseason. The injury shouldn’t cause him to miss Week 1, but it is causing him to miss valuable reps to mesh with Trevor Lawrence. We’ll see how quickly Chark gets back.

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.

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