My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
Example: My top-rated team, the Buccaneers (7), would be 14.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Texans (-7.5). Using a typical three-point adjustment for home-field advantage, the Packers would be 17.5-point favorites over the Texans at home and 11.5-point favorites over the Texans on the road.
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LVI Odds |
| 1. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 7-3 (4-6) | +.5 | +600 |
| 2. | Arizona Cardinals | 6.5 | 9-2 (8-3) | +.5 | +900 |
| 3. | Green Bay Packers | 6.5 | 8-3 (9-2) | -.5 | +1000 |
| 4. | Los Angeles Rams | 6 | 7-3 (4-6) | — | +900 |
| 5. | Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 7-3 (8-2) | -.5 | +900 |
| 6. | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.5 | 7-4 (4-7) | +2 | +750 |
| 7. | Buffalo Bills | 5.5 | 6-4 (5-4-1) | -1 | +800 |
| 8. | New England Patriots | 4.5 | 7-4 (7-4) | +1 | +1400 |
| 9. | Baltimore Ravens | 4.5 | 7-3 (4-6) | — | +1400 |
| 10. | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 6-5 (7-4) | +1 | +4000 |
| 11. | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 5-5 (4-6) | +1 | +5000 |
| 12. | Los Angeles Chargers | 2.5 | 6-4 (5-5) | — | +2000 |
| 13. | Tennessee Titans | 2.5 | 8-3 (7-4) | -1.5 | +1800 |
| 14. | Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 5-5 (6-4) | +1 | +5000 |
| 15. | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.5 | 5-6 (6-5) | +1 | +6000 |
| 16. | Cincinnati Bengals | 1.5 | 6-4 (5-5) | +.5 | +4000 |
| 17. | Cleveland Browns | 1 | 6-5 (5-6) | -.5 | +4000 |
| 18. | New Orleans Saints | 1 | 5-5 (4-6) | -.5 | +8000 |
| 19. | Pittsburgh Steelers | .5 | 5-4-1 (4-6) | — | +10000 |
| 20. | Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 3-7 (5-5) | -2 | +15000 |
| 21. | Denver Broncos | -.5 | 5-5 (5-5) | — | +10000 |
| 22. | Las Vegas Raiders | -.5 | 5-5 (4-6) | -.5 | +10000 |
| 23. | Washington | -1 | 4-6 (3-7) | +1 | +25000 |
| 24. | Carolina Panthers | -1 | 5-6 (5-6) | -.5 | +25000 |
| 25. | Miami Dolphins | -1.5 | 4-7 (5-5-1) | +.5 | +50000 |
| 26. | New York Giants | -2 | 3-7 (5-5) | -.5 | +50000 |
| 27. | Chicago Bears | -2 | 3-7 (4-6) | — | +50000 |
| 28. | Atlanta Falcons | -2.5 | 4-6 (4-6) | -.5 | +100000 |
| 29. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -4.5 | 2-8 (4-6) | -.5 | +100000 |
| 30. | Detroit Lions | -5 | 0-9-1 (6-4) | — | +100000 |
| 31. | New York Jets | -6 | 2-8 (2-8) | -.5 | +100000 |
| 32. | Houston Texans | -7.5 | 2-8 (5-5) | +1 | +100000 |
Week 12 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 17.
Arizona Cardinals (6 to 6.5) — The Cardinals survived the last three weeks without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins by winning and covering in two of their three contests heading into their Week 12 bye. Colt McCoy and company may have delivered the final blow to the Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll-led Seahawks, as the backup QB posted 328/2 passing and the defense held the Seahawks to just one touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs (3.5 to 5.5) — I’m giving the Chiefs the biggest upward adjustment of the season after yet another strong performance in Week 11, and they’re back to being the favorites in the AFC after a brief hiatus. Chris Jones dominated the Cowboys’ O-line with 3.5 sacks, and their defense has come into their own by allowing just 36 points over the last three weeks to the likes of the Cowboys, Raiders, and Packers (sans Aaron Rodgers).
New England Patriots (3.5 to 4.5) — The Patriots have run off five consecutive outright and ATS after blanking the Falcons 25-0 in Week 11 for New England’s 13th shutout in the Bill Belichick era. New England has covered the spread by a ridiculous average margin of 21.6 points, and they’ve outscored their last three opponents (Atlanta, Cleveland, Carolina) 94-13 in Weeks 9-11.
Indianapolis Colts (2 to 3) — Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ offensive line dominated one of the league’s best defenses last week, piling up 32/185/4 rushing and 3/19/1 receiving in Indy’s 41-15 victory as seven-point road underdogs over the Bills. The Colts have won five of their last six games, and they’re leading the league with a +15 turnover differential with at least one takeaway in every game.
San Francisco 49ers (2 to 3) — The 49ers absolutely dominated the Jaguars last week, running 33 of the first 37 plays from scrimmage, and they’re +4 in turnover differential the last two weeks after opening the season -9 through their first eight games. Brandon Aiyuk has also turned a corner with 20/245/2 receiving on 26 targets over the last four weeks after managing just 9/96/1 receiving on 16 targets in his first six contests.
Minnesota Vikings (1.5 to 2) — The Vikings seemingly play in the league’s most exciting games every week, with six of their first 10 games decided on the final snap of the game. They’re also the only team that’s held a lead of 7+ points in every game this season, and they’re finally starting to hold some of those leads with two consecutive wins heading into a pivotal matchup with the 49ers this week.
Philadelphia Eagles (.5 to 1.5) — HC Nick Sirianni earned his first home victory in his fifth try, and his team is on their first winning streak of the season with their third multi-score victory in the last four weeks. The Eagles have outrushed their opponents over the last four games by a staggering margin of 129.8 yards. Miles Sanders stepped back into the lineup and posted season-highs in carries (16) and rushing yards (94), but he’s still looking for that elusive first touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals (1 to 1.5) — The Bengals headed into their Week 10 bye off of two ugly losses to the Jets and the Browns, but they bounced back in a big way with a 32-13 victory over the Raiders as 2.5-point road favorites. Cincinnati’s defense held the Raiders to just 47 plays and one touchdown, and Joe Mixon controlled the game with 30/123/2 rushing
Miami Dolphins (-2 to -1.5) — The Dolphins are starting to play like how they were expected to play coming into the 2021 season, winning three straight games outright and ATS. Miami’s defense has held its last three opponents (Jets, Ravens, Texans) to 26 combined points while Tua Tagovailoa has played better than the narrative in the public, ranking 10th in ESPN’s QBR for the season.
Washington Football Team (-2 to -1) — The Football Team is playing their best football of the season with two consecutive outright and ATS wins out of their Week 9 bye — they opened the year with just one cover in their first eight contests. Terry McLaurin hung 5/103/1 receiving on seven targets against the Panthers for his fourth performance of the year with 100+ yards, 1+ TDs, and 20+ FP.
Houston Texans (-8.5 to -7.5) — The Texans scored the biggest upset of Week 11 with a 22-13 victory over the Titans as 10.5-point road underdogs. Houston used a +5 turnover differential to score the big upset, which gets them to +2 for the season despite owning just two wins this season.
Week 12 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 17.
Green Bay Packers (7 to 6.5) — I didn’t downgrade the Packers this week based on their play against the Vikings, but I did downgrade them because of the toe injury Aaron Rodgers is currently playing through. Whatever painkillers they gave him worked last week with Rodgers completing 23/33 passes for a season-high 385 yards (11.7 YPA) and four TDs in the defeat.
Dallas Cowboys (6.5 to 6) — The Cowboys have scored 20 or fewer points in three of their four games after a disappointing nine-point performance against the Chiefs in Week 11. Dallas will be without two of the explosive playmakers in Amari Cooper (COVID) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion) this week, while LT Tyron Smith (ankle) and Ezekiel Elliott (ankle) will be in races to be ready with a short week to get ready.
Buffalo Bills (6.5 to 5.5) — The Bills have lost three of their last five games outright and they’re 1-3-1 ATS in that span after their humiliating 41-15 loss to the Colts as seven-point home favorites. The Bills had no answer for Jonathan Taylor, who went 32/185/4 rushing and 3/19/1 receiving in the victory, and the Colts dominated the Bills in the trenches, outgaining them by 173 yards on the ground.
Tennessee Titans (4 to 2.5) — Tennessee is going to be hard-pressed to move the ball consistently against the Patriots this week. The Titans are currently down their All-Everything running back Derrick Henry and they could be without their top three WRs this week (A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Marcus Johnson). The Titans’ offense managed just 13 points with five turnovers in an embarrassing loss to the Texans last week.
Cleveland Browns (1.5 to 1) — The Browns couldn’t put away the lowly Lions in Tim Boyle’s first career start in Week 11 as Cleveland hung on for dear life in a 13-10 victory as 14-point home favorites. Cleveland’s offense has scored 17 or fewer in five of their last six games, and they’re 2-5 ATS over their last seven contests.
New Orleans Saints (2 to 1) — Trevor Siemian is looking more and more like the backup quarterback that he is as the sample size gets larger and larger. The Saints have dropped three consecutive games since he took over as the team’s starter, and he averaged just 5.4 YPA with two INTs against the Eagles, one of which Darius Slay took to the house for a pick-six.
Seattle Seahawks (2 to 0) — We’re in the final days of the Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll-led Seahawks after yet another pathetic performance effectively knocked them out of playoff contention. The Seahawks have scored just one touchdown since Wilson returned to the lineup in Week 10, and he’s completing just 51.5% of his passes for 368 scoreless yards and two INTs in that span. Wilson will look to snap the first three-game losing streak of his 10-year career against Washington this week.
Las Vegas Raiders (0 to -.5) — The Raiders have hit their annual wall with three straight outright and ATS losses, and the offense has been the main reason for their tailspin. They’re averaging just 14.3 points per game in the last three weeks and they haven’t topped 16 points in a single game in that span, which coincides with the loss of their top vertical threat out of their bye week. Las Vegas’ average cover margin sits at an ugly -17.0 points over the last three games.
Carolina Panthers (-.5 to -1) — Cam Newton returned to the lineup last week, and he showed he’s still the same limited passer from the last couple of seasons, with an aDOT sitting at just 5.9 yards. He still gave this offense some stability at the position by completing 21/27 passes for 189 yards (7.0 YPA) and two touchdowns, and he added 10/46/1 rushing for a healthy 26.2 FP in his first major action of the season.
New York Giants (-1.5 to -2) — The Giants had their three-game ATS win streak snapped against the Buccaneers, and their only offensive touchdown came from LT Andrew Thomas, even with their offense mostly intact. Daniel Jones completed 23/38 passes for just 167 yard (4.4 YPA), one TD, and two ugly INTs in the loss as the Giants averaged just 4.0 yards per play.
Atlanta Falcons (-2 to -2.5) — The Falcons’ offense has been mostly anemic without Calvin Ridley in the lineup over the last four weeks, and they were downright apocalyptic with Cordarrelle Patterson also out of the mix in Week 11. The Falcons averaged just 3.2 yards per play against the Patriots and they were shut out for the first time in six seasons, which means they’ve been outscored 68-3 by New England and Dallas in the last two weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4 to -4.5) — The Jaguars had 33 of the first 37 plays run against them by the 49ers in Week 11, and their passing attack has been putrid with Trevor Lawrence averaging just 146.0 passing yards per game and 5.1 YPA over the last three weeks. The Jaguars are quite banged up heading into this week with CB Shaq Griffin (concussion), CB Tyson Campbell (shoulder), OT Cam Robinson (knee), and Jamal Agnew (hip, IR) all leaving early last week.
New York Jets (-5.5 to -6) — Rookie Elijah Moore is coming into his own with double-digit FP in four straight games and with touchdowns in three consecutive contests. He’s coming off a monster performance in Week 11, posting 8/141/1 receiving on 11 targets against the Dolphins, and most promisingly he saw a nine-week high 80% snap share in the loss.
