Week 14 Advanced Matchups

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Week 14 Advanced Matchups

It’s the final week where we will need to deal with bye weeks. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, four teams will get some rest in Week 14. Three of those (Indianapolis, Miami, and New England) are among the hottest defenses in the league. Maybe we’ll see some better numbers from the 28 offenses set to take the field. The combined PPG average from Week 13 (21.39) is the second-lowest of the season (21.38 from Week 7).

The average air yards/coverage snap declined for qualified outside corners, slot corners, linebackers, strong safeties, and free safeties for the sixth-consecutive week — the stretch of time where I’ve been paying particular attention. In addition to seeing more INTs (eight) than TDs (seven) on throws traveling at least 20 yards for only the third week this season, we’ve never seen the poor quality on those attempts (9.9 YPA) than what was put on display last week. Justin Herbert accounted for 16% of the total number of deep completions and 19% of the resulting yardage on only 7% of the attempts. You can check out the updated charts below for more information.

You’ll see a number of coverage metrics throughout this series. The following chart provides the full names for the acronyms and the coverage performance numbers for each position group through Week 13:

To magnify their importance toward processing the matchup data, familiarity with these abbreviations are key. The full names of the data points in the headers of the data table above will not be written out in full within the specific matchups. You’ll find the following acronyms frequently used whenever referencing defensive coverage statistics:

  • Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap = YPCS

  • Fantasy Points Allowed Per Coverage Snap = FP/CS

  • Air Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap = AY/CS

  • Targeted Passer Rating (i.e., Passer Rating on Targets into Coverage) = TPR

Offensive abbreviations used when referring to QBs/RBs/WRs/TEs:

  • FPs/Dropback = FP/Db

  • FPs/Route = FP/Rt

  • FPs/Touch = FP/Tch

  • Yards/Route Run = YPRR

  • Air Yards/Attempt = AY/Att

  • Air Yards/Target = AY/Tgt

  • Yards/Target = YPT

  • Targeted Passer Rating (i.e., QB Passer Rating When Targeting Receiver) = TPR

If you’d like to learn more about/refresh yourself with each of the defensive coverage shells and other relevant schematic details mentioned throughout this series, utilize the following resources:

Fantasy Shells: Coverage Glossary

Fantasy Shells: Cover 1

Fantasy Shells: Cover 2

Fantasy Shells: Cover 3

Fantasy Shells: Cover 4

ATS Picks

*61-65 (48%); 10-4 in Week 13

Minnesota Vikings (-3.0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Houston Texans
Las Vegas Raiders (+9.0) at Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans (-9.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Washington Football Team (+3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints (-5.0) at New York Jets
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) vs. New York Giants
Denver Broncos (-8.0) vs. Detroit Lions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0) vs. Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears (+11.5) at Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Game Totals

*55-48 (53%); 8-6 in Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (Over 43.0)
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (Under 41.5)
Las Vegas Raider at Kansas City Chiefs (Over 47.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Under 42.0)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (Under 44.0)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (Under 48.0)
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (Over 43.0)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Over 42.5)
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (Over 44.0)
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (Under 42.0)
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 52.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 49.0)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Over 43.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Under 51.5)

Moneyline

*79-43 (65%); 12-2 in Week 13

Minnesota Vikings (-165) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks (-335) at Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs (-450) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Baltimore Ravens (+120) at Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans (-410) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Washington Football Team (+150) vs. Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints (-220) at New York Jets
Carolina Panthers (-135) at Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers (-510) vs. New York Giants
Denver Broncos (-365) vs. Detroit Lions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-160) vs. Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals (-115) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers (-600) vs. Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals (-135) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchups to Target

Rashaad Penny, SEA ($4.8K DK | $5.3K FD) vs. Texans’ Cover 1 | 2

The Seahawks only stand a 3% chance to make the playoffs after playing the second-most difficult schedule this season. Their bottom-10 run blocking O-line has been an eye-sore for the Seattle faithful all season. That said, the Texans are whiffing on the highest rate of tackle attempts in the league (15%). With the straight release of 26-year-old LB Zach Cunningham — prized enough by the previous regime to work out a four-year, $58-million extension last season, it’s clear this franchise is headed for a decades-long rebuild. Here’s the official explanation:

While I applaud Culley for taking a stance on punctuality, it appears it’s the only value he holds in high regard. Dismissing the 2020 NFL tackle leader from a defense unable to tackle is nothing short of cartoonish. Let’s sift through some of the “highlights” of Culley’s RB defense during his first — possibly his only — season as the Houston HC:

  • Allowing 26.3 FPG to RBs this season (sixth-most)

  • 30.5 FPG to RBs during the last four weeks (fifth-most)

  • 18.5 pure rushing FPG (third-most)

  • 2.5 goal-to-go (GTG) carries/game (sixth-most)

  • 5.67 red zone (RZ) touches/game (fourth-most)

  • 144.2 rushing YPG (the most)

  • 4.6 YPC (fifth-most)

  • 28% rushing first down rate (fifth-highest)

  • 1.67 TD/game (second-most)

Rashaad Penny led the Seattle backfield with a 37% carry share last week against the 49ers. He amassed 7.2/6.7 FPs from 11 touches and 62 total yards. In spite of Alex Collins returning from an abdomen injury, HC Pete Carroll passed along some subtle hints in support of Penny holding down the starting role. Hints in favor of a featured role are not Cash/Single-Entry (SE) material. But Penny is well within the large-field GPP radar in this matchup, with RB45/RB47 pricing.

Tyler Lockett, SEA ($6.7K DK | $7.3K FD) vs. Terrance Mitchell, HOU

Some late word was passed along last week that the ‘Hawks wanted to get DK Metcalf ($6.5K/$7.3K) more involved on offense. Russell Wilson didn’t seem to get the memo. While Metcalf was handed a 22% target share, it was his fourth-lowest of the season, and it was matched by Tyler Lockett. Since Wilson’s return from IR, The Rocket has easily stood as the most effective WR in the Emerald City. It’s entirely possible that the added involvement for Metcalf simply kicks in this week. The Texans are using the sixth-highest rate of Cover 1 this season, and have utilized a rate of Cover 1 inside the top-four teams in each of the last three weeks (the third-highest rate since their Week 10 bye). Metcalf has been Seattle’s top Cover 1 wideout with 0.48 FP/Rt during his career (18th-best out of 110 qualified WRs). And run a good number of routes across from Desmond King II. Let’s throw down some bullets on the Texans’ defense of wideouts:

  • Permitting 35.4 FPG to opposing WRs (13th-most)

  • 1.92 RZ touches/game (fourth-most)

  • 7.23 YPA (seventh-most)

  • 3.49% completion rate on throws of 40-plus (seventh-highest)

  • 38.5% passing first down rate (third-highest)

Taking a stab at The Wolverine certainly holds merit, but I prefer Lockett this week. Full transparency: Lockett has generated 0.41 FP/Rt (39th-most), 9.8 YPT (26th-most), and a 120.0 TPR (18th-highest) against Cover 1 during his last 44 games. Houston also features the third-highest rate of Cover 2. When challenged by Cover 2 the last three seasons, Tyler has manufactured 0.34 FP/Rt (28th-most), 1.89 YPRR (25th-most), 11.3 YPT (19th-highest), and a 122.1 TPR (15th-most). What sells me on investing in Lockett over Metcalf? A massive 41% of Lockett’s total FPG (6.14) has been gathered on play action. And Houston is consenting to 0.47 FP/CS (second-most), a 123.7 TPR (sixth-highest), and a 22% completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards (eighth-highest) when defending play action — more for the Culley family scrapbook.

Lockett aligns all over the formation, but he will see a good amount of Terrance Mitchell on Sunday. In his second-stint with Houston, Mitchell is distributing 1.14 YPCS (44th-best among 79 qualified outside corners), 0.28 FP/CS (53rd-best), and a 97.6 TPR (46th-best) to his coverage. With the expectation that the ground game will be rolling, the play action from the Seahawks should be a hot commodity come Sunday. And the result should feature several splash plays in Lockett’s direction.

Final notes on Seattle

Carroll absolutely wants to finish out the season on a positive note. Even if the run game shreds Houston, Russell Wilson ($6.6K/$7.5K) can be expected to use this opportunity to set the record straight. After 101 rushing attempts, Alex Collins ($5.2K/$5.6K) has only spawned 0.61 FPs/opportunity (59th-best among 66 qualified RBs) and his runs have resulted in zero-or-negative yardage on 10.9% of carries (54th). If Carroll doesn’t feature Penny, it’s clearly time for Travis Homer ($4.6K/$5.0K) to get the next featured opportunity.

D’Wayne Eskridge ($3.2K/$4.9K) finally found the end zone in the 13th game of the season. The ‘21 second-rounder actually only required eight targets before reaching paydirt, but the score was not of the exciting variety. He caught ‘21 fifth-rounder Deommodore Lenoir flat-footed on a 6R route with Wilson evading pressure. Eskridge made quick work of Lenoir’s tackle attempt for his visit into color. More compelling than the TD, Eskridge ran a route on 37% of team passing plays, stealing a massive chunk of Freddie Swain’s ($3.3K/$4.7K) role. Just pump the brakes this week on Eskridge with Tavierre Thomas in coverage. Serving as a reminder, Thomas is limiting his responsibilities to 0.36 YPCS (the fewest), 0.09 FP/CS (the fewest), 0.04 AY/CS (second-fewest), and a 44.8 TPR (the lowest).

It also might not be a bad idea adding some Gerald Everett ($3.5K/$4.8K) action in the game following Cunningham’s release. Everett is aligning at an 82% inline and slot clip that should set him up with some LB coverage.

Final notes on Houston

Tyrod Taylor ($5.1K/$6.6K) has a chance to take the field this week. If not, Davis Mills ($5.0K/$6.6K) will receive another start. Does it matter? Short answer: No. The Seahawks are giving 17.0 FPG to QBs (10th-fewest). In addition to restricting wideouts to the seventh-fewest FPG during their last four games (25.7), they are the only defense to hold WRs out of the end zone since Week 8. Seattle features the third-highest rate of Cover 3. So it’s not going to be a pretty sight with Taylor and Mills combining to throw three TDs vs. six INTs and a 72.4 passer rating (fourth-lowest of any team). The vulnerability of DC Ken Norton Jr.’s defense is on the ground. The loss of star strong safety Jamal Adams will not help with that issue.

David Johnson ($5.1K/$5.5K) does seem to be ready to make his return after a one-game absence from various ailments. I’d rather his RB38/RB40 pricing falling in line with that of Rex Burkhead’s ($4.6K/$5.3K) RB50/RB47. Just no guarantees whatsoever on Johnson seeing the type of workload offered to Burkhead in recent weeks. Adding Royce Freeman ($4.2K/$4.8K) to the mix nullifies the entire backfield. One week after having his day entirely saved on a 40-yard TD against the lowly Jets, Brandin Cooks ($5.7K/$6.5K) only managed 8.4/6.9 FPs during a 31-0 shutout at the hands of Indianapolis. The Seahawks have been superior to the Colts in WR defense. Since Cooks’ alignment numbers are split evenly wide left, wide right, and in the slot, there’s no reason to try to identify an individual matchup. We must decide if he’ll see a return of the heavy volume that has allowed him to succeed this season.

Matchups to avoid:

  • Nico Collins ($3.0K/$5.1K) vs. D.J. Reed Jr.

  • Chris Conley ($6.1K/$6.2K) vs. Sidney Jones

  • Chris Moore ($3.0K/$4.9K) vs. Ugo Amadi.

Pharaoh Brown ($3.0K/$4.6K) and Brevin Jordan ($2.5K/$4.6K) spend 85% and 75% of their reps inline, respectively. But Jordan only blocks on 35% of his snaps. The Seahawks are allowing the most FPG to TEs over the last four weeks (21.1), so Jordan is a name to keep in mind for those looking for a desperation, salary-relieving TE punt.

Matchups to Target

Hunter Renfrow, LV ($6.1K DK | $6.7K FD) vs. L'Jarius Sneed, KC

The Slot Machine that is Hunter Renfrow cultivated a 9/102/0 on 10 targets for 22.2/14.7 FPs in Week 13 against Washington. It stands as the highest output from an opposing wideout against the red-hot Washington defense since Week 7. But the Football Team put the second-highest rate of Cover 4 and only the 12th-highest of Cover 2 on the field to oppose Las Vegas. No team has used Cover 2 more than the Chiefs since Week 6, the second-highest rate this season. LV and KC just faced each other in Week 10. And Renfrow manufactured a 7/46/1 line on nine targets for 17.6/14.1 FPs.

Renfrow was put on this earth to destroy Cover 2. He leads all qualified WRs with 0.52 FP/Rt, ranks second with 2.85 YPRR, and draws the second-highest target share when defenses put a Cover 2 on the field (27%) during his 41-game career. I’m counting on the field being scared off Renfrow due to Kansas City’s defensive hot streak. They are holding opposing WRs to 31.9 FPG (seventh-fewest). But they are permitting 252.5 passing YPG (ninth-most) and 7.25 YPA (sixth-most).

In addition, the Chiefs are passporting 0.36 FP/CS (13th-most), a 120.8 TPR (eighth-highest), and 24% completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards (sixth-highest) against play action. It just so happens that Renfrow is catalyzing 31% of his total FPG output (4.72) on play action. He's producing 0.47 FP/Rt (13th-most) and has been provided with a 20+% target share in seven of his last nine games. L’Jarius Sneed will be in primary, press-zone coverage. He’s granting 1.35 YPCS (10th-most among 41 qualified nickelbacks), 0.32 FP/CS (fourth-most), and a 107.2 TPR (ninth-highest). Don’t sleep!

Tyreek Hill, KC ($8.5K DK | $8.7K FD) vs. Brandon Facyson, LV

During his Week 10 matchup with the Raiders, Tyreek Hill submitted a 7/83/2 line on 10 targets for 27.5/24.0 FPs. It’s a far cry from the 2/22/0 line he generated on five targets for 4.2/3.2 FPs last week against Denver. I took the opportunity to refresh my brain on Hill’s matchup with Las Vegas. One variable quickly stood out: OC Eric Bieniemy insisted on shifting Hill all over the formation in order to create specific matchups. One of the downsides of using a single coverage at such a high rate is opposing offenses tracking defensive alignments. And Bieniemy took advantage of just that to pitt Hill across from Johnathan Abram (2/11/2), a disgusting pwnage of Desmond Trufant in the red zone (1/8/1), and, specifically, putting Brandon Facyson out to dry as much as possible (2/48/0). Raiders’ DC Gus Bradley tried everything in his toolkit to keep Hill in the vicinity of Casey Hayward Jr. It didn’t work. Hayward just couldn’t station himself in more than one place at a time. Patrick Mahomes II connected for 406 passing yards and five TDs.

Based on the disgusting results from Bradley spending so much effort trying to isolate Hill, we may actually see the Raiders allow the matchups to work themselves out on their own in Week 14. And that’s precisely why I am recommending the wideout with WR3/WR2. Which, to be clear, is actually great value for Hill since he’s typically priced as the WR1/WR1. The Raiders are using the highest rate of Cover 3 this season. Hill requires no introduction, I’ll just state that, during his last 39 games, he’s created 0.46 FP/Rt (10th-most) across from Cover 3. And Facyson is gift-wrapping 1.45 YPCS (15th-most), 0.37 FP/CS (third-most), 0.33 AY/CS (second-most), a 118.8 passer rating (seventh-highest), and the seventh-highest completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards.

Final notes on Las Vegas

I want to get behind Derek Carr ($5.9K/$7.2K), but QB defense is precisely where this Kansas City defense has excelled. With his PPR potential, Hunter Renfrow doesn’t need an end zone trip to make a difference. That’s far from the case for Carr. We need around two TD tosses from Carr to justify exposure. Not a crazy expectation, just not one I am going to invest my hard-earned money toward. I’m also not buying into Josh Jacobs’ ($6.2K/$7.1K) production from the last two weeks. The way Mahomes manhandled this defense will likely force Las Vegas away from the run. Jacobs’ pricing increases do not help the matter. Kenyan Drake just hit IR due to ankle surgery. I’m taking a wait-and-see approach on whether his absence will result in more volume for Jacobs. Drake had already become an afterthought prior to the injury.

If anyone was actually considering Zay Jones ($3.4K/$4.8K), I’d dedicate his matchup across from Charvarius Ward with an Avoid write-up. If Bryan Edwards ($3.3K/$5.0K) actually gave us signs of life, perhaps this matchup would be of interest. Edwards produced his finest game of the season against KC in Week 10 with 3/88/1. Rashad Fenton shut him down during their encounters, but Edwards was able to isolate for work against LB Anthony Hitchens, and collected his 37-yard TD. DeSean Jackson ($3.9K/$5.1K) is good for a deep target or two, but nothing even remotely resembling volume at this stage in his career. Kansas City continues to struggle against TEs, providing them with 14.8 FPG this season (eighth-most). His pricing isn’t as sexy as in Week 13, but Foster Moreau ($4.0K/$5.2K) is still going to see enough volume for consideration.

Final notes on Kansas City

Scoring 39.2/36.2 FPs in Week 10, we can expect to see Patrick Mahomes II ($8.0K/$8.5K) drawing top-three ownership numbers. I always spend considerable time considering RBs working against the Raiders’ defense. But Darrel Williams ($5.3K/$6.5K) is seeing too many receiving reps and playing too well for me to get very excited about Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6.1K/$6.5K). If Las Vegas loosens its grip on trying to force particular matchups, it’s going to come at the expense of production for receivers lower on the depth chart. Byron Pringle ($3.2K/$5.3K) has established himself as the second-option at WR. But he’ll see enough of

Nate Hobbs to disregard.

It appears that, once again, Demarcus Robinson ($3.0K/$5.0K) has overtaken Mecole Hardman ($3.9K/$5.3K) in the rotation. Robinson would have Casey Hayward Jr. blanketed over him within the scenario I’m envisioning. Touting Travis Kelce ($7.4K/$7.5K) with TE1/TE1 pricing is about as no-brainer as it gets. But the Raiders are more lenient to TEs than they are to RBs. Opposing TEs are posting 17.7 FPG against Las Vegas this season (second-most). Zeus is doing 74% of his work detached from the line (10th-highest), forcing severe mismatches on a play-by-play basis. A guy Kelce’s size is not supposed to be able to run as fast as he does. In my opinion, Week 14 is a week where you pay up at TE.

Matchups to Target

Mark Andrews, BAL ($5.9K DK | $6.9K FD) vs. Browns’ Cover 3 | 4

Speaking of paying up at TE, if it continues to pay off, why should we alter the process? During his last 41 games, Mark Andrews has fabricated 0.48 FP/Rt (second-most), 11.1 AY/Tgt (seventh-most), 2.17 YPRR (sixth-most), and draws a 29% target share when opponents put a Cover 4 on the field.

MANdrews is contributing 0.56 FP/Rt (second-most), 11.5 AY/Tgt (the most), 2.89 YPRR (second-most), and collecting a 29% target share when attacking Cover 3 over that stretch of time.The Browns are fielding the fifth-highest rate of Cover 3 and the highest of Cover 4. And they’ve struggled to defend the position recently, allowing 15.8 FPG to TEs over the last four weeks (sixth-most).

Jarvis Landry, CLE ($5.4K DK | $6.4K FD) vs. Tavon Young, BAL

One of the very rare instances of a team facing the same opponent in consecutive games. While the Ravens played against the Steelers last week, a Week 13 bye separates Cleveland from dates across from Baltimore in Week 12 and this week. During that Week 12 contest, Jarvis Landry cobbled up a 6/111/0 line on 10 targets (19.1/12.1 FPs). The Ravens are featuring the third-highest rate of man coverage, fueled by the ninth-highest rate of Cover 1. Landry has produced 0.38 FP/Rt (38th-most), 1.93 YPRR (42nd-most), and a 105.9 TPR (36th-highest) over his last 39 games against Cover 1. Above average, but not overwhelming evidence to convince us for exposure. While he has scored 36% of his total TDs on only 26% of routes against Cover 1, I still need more.

And that evidence is available. A wideout needs to punish a particular coverage in order to justify the type of results and sheer number of opportunities provided to Landry. And Juice’s particular flavor is Cover 6. Baltimore is fielding Cover 6 at the 10th-highest rate this season, top-seven in three of the last four weeks. Landry has punished Cover 6 defenses with 0.65 FP/Rt (the highest), 3.99 YPRR (the highest), 13.2 YPT (eighth-most), a 120.8 TPR (13th-highest), and drawing a 29% target share (the highest).

With Marlon Humphrey out for the season due to a torn pectoral muscle, the one obstacle in Landry’s way has been removed. Tavon Young will work as the nickelback but, as was the case in Week 12, Landry will face a multitude of defenders while accumulating his numbers. The Ravens are surrendering 36.5 FPG to WRs over the last four weeks (eighth-most), 272.4 passing YPG (second-most), 7.55 YPA (third-most), and a 20.8% completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards (the highest).

Final notes on Baltimore

It’s been a very rough three-game stretch for Lamar Jackson ($7.4K/$7.9K) against Miami, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. During that time, he only averaged 16.1 FPG. It’s a number constructed with a 29% decline in pure rushing FPG under the average he accrued during the eight games prior. Be that as it may, the Dolphins and Browns represent difficult challenges to most QBs. And the elite pass rush of the Steelers becomes a big problem when a passing game stalls. That was precisely the case against the Steel Curtain last week. It’s a near certainty that much of the field will turn a blind eye to L-Jax this week with his recent struggles. It should present us with an opportunity to expose our lineups to a QB that averaged 32.7 FPG in two games against Cleveland last season.

Devonta Freeman ($5.7K/$6.3K) may have established a steady floor, but I need upside, as well. Freeman lacks it entirely. And Latavius Murray ($4.9K/$5.3K) is simply on his last NFL legs. It’s guaranteed that Marquise Brown ($6.3K/$7.0K) is provided with a 20+% target share. He’s seen at least that much in 10-of-11 games. If Jackson blows up, Hollywood is likely to follow. But Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II held Brown to a 1/3/0 line on 17 routes inside their coverage in Week 12. He managed 7/48/0 elsewhere, but not enough to hit value. And he only averaged 15.6 FPG during those big performances from Jackson against the Browns last season. Tread cautiously.

I’ll just need to disagree with HC John Harbaugh’s decision to feature Sammy Watkins ($4.6K/$5.3K) over Rashod Bateman ($4.7K/$5.4K). Why devote a first round selection to Bateman if he’s not earmarked for an every-down role? And Watkins’ role has not come at the expense of Devin Duvernay ($3.5K/$4.9K). He’s locked down the inside role. The reps allotted to James Proche ($3.0K/$4.6K) cut into the field time for Bateman even further. All told, the only receivers currently worth our time are MANdrews and Hollywood.

Final notes on Cleveland

All we can hope for is that the bye week provided Baker Mayfield ($5.2K/$6.5K) with enough time to rest his ails. But Mayfield has simply been brutal all season. Until I see evidence to convince me otherwise, he’ll be a weekly fade. And that includes the Cover 1-heavy matchups. His inefficiency levels reached a depth that resulted in Baltimore overloading the box to limit Nick Chubb ($7.6K/$7.5K) and Kareem Hunt ($5.6K/$6.5K) to 36 rushing yards on 15 carries in Week 12. If Mayfield doesn’t come out firing to all levels early this week, it could be another cringe-worthy outing for one of the most talented RB pairs in the NFL.

If Mayfield does manage to piece together an offensive attack, I’ve already established Landry as his Cover 6 specialist. When the Ravens throw their Cover 1 at Mayfield, they’ll be poking a stick at man-child Donovan Peoples-Jones ($3.9K/$5.2K). It’s never been about ability with DPJ. At Michigan, it was always about staying healthy. And we have enough of an NFL history in place to state that Peoples-Jones is an up-and-comer holding top-20 upside against Cover 1.

If Mayfield does bring a reformed act into Week 14, the alignment numbers inform us that DPJ will face off with Anthony Averett. Acting as the third-most targeted outside corner, Averett is providing his coverage with 1.59 TPCS (eighth-most), 0.31 FP/CS (15th-most), 0.23 AY/CS (10th-most), and an 84.3 TPR (30th-best – an anomaly). One of the more surprising Week 13 adjustments, even before the Ravens lost Humphrey, Jimmy Smith was counted on for starter reps on the perimeter against Pittsburgh. But the tape did not point toward turning that shift for the 33-year-old into a weekly trend. It’s likely to be Chris Westry – now apparently healthy – that replaces Humphrey in the starting lineup. The 2019 UDFA is going to be a name to store away for future use. For this week, Ja’Marcus Bradley ($3.0K/$4.8K) is the only thing standing in way. Rashard Higgins ($3.3K/$4.7K) was a healthy inactive in Week 13 after turning 201 routes into 0.197 FP/Rt (12th-worst out of 108 qualified WRs). And Anthony Schwartz ($3.0K/$4.7K) is still dealing with concussion symptoms.

Another situation worth mentioning is David Njoku’s ($3.4K/$5.0K) placement on the COVID list. He may simply test negative twice to make the point moot. If not, the potential absence of Harrison Bryant ($2.5K/$4.6K) to a high-ankle sprain picked against Baltimore in Week 12 could provide Austin Hooper ($3.4K/$5.0K) with a massive snap count. With QB23/QB21 pricing, being on the field for around 90% of team passing plays would elevate Hooper to considerable intrigue.

Matchups to Target

Ryan Tannehill, TEN ($6.4K DK | $7.3K FD) vs. Jaguars’ Cover 1 | 2 | 3

Calling the ‘21 season a success from a statistical standpoint for Ryan Tannehill would be a bit of a stretch. He’s fallen short of value in three of the four games since Derrick Henry was injured, only averaging 14.7 FPG. That said, we have some intriguing data points pointing toward a revival. Entering the season, Tannehill was set to work with an elite WR duo consisting of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. But the pair have only played together on at least 50% of team passing snaps in five-of-11 games. With Brown, Jones, and Henry on the field, the Titans defeated the Colts, Chiefs, and Rams en route to a 4-1 record – their sole defeat at the hands of the Cardinals in Week 1. The amount of space provided to the passing offense from King Henry on play action is truly a tremendous advantage.

Without all three — not to mention Marcus Johnson — the last two weeks, all of the arm talent in the world and the very highest of football IQs aren’t enough without horses in the stable able to defeat coverage, and collect the ball. Perfect case in point, look to Tom Brady’s last season in New England (2019). Yes, he tossed 24 TDs vs. eight INTs, but The GOAT also failed to cover floor value in 11-of-16 games (69%). Even with AJB and Henry on IR, a glimmer of hope emerges. Quintorris Jones Jr. is ready to make his return. Consider that, in the five games where Tannehill only had the services of either Brown or Jones on at least 50% of team passing plays, he covered his floor in four (80%). Getting Julio back on the field will provide a boost to every offensive group for Tennessee.

Jacksonville is situationally using Cover 1 at the 13th-highest rate, Cover 2 at the 10th-highest, and Cover 3 at the 13th-highest. Working against those three coverages during the last three seasons, Tannethrill has connected on 38 TDs vs. 12 INTs. When opposed by Cover 1 during his 40 games with Tennessee, Tannehill has supported his team with 0.50 FP/Db (eighth-highest), a 101.4 passer rating (ninth-highest), and featured play action on 35% of dropbacks (second-highest). During the same timeframe, he’s concentrating 0.43 FP/Db (ninth-most), a 100.1 passer rating (eighth-highest), a 13% increase in YPA (eighth-highest), and calling play action on 45% of dropbacks (second-highest rate).

The Jags are stocking opposing QB shelves with 17.6 FPG (14th-most), a 71% completion rate (the highest), 7.5 YPA (fourth-most), 16% completion rate on throws traveling 20-plus yards (ninth-most), and a 37.8% passing first down rate (fifth-highest). Last but far from least in support of this matchup, Jacksonville is allowing the 11th-highest passer rating (117.6), 11th-highest completion rate on deep throws (22%), and second-highest overall completion rate when opposing offenses use play action. Nobody can replace Henry, but D’Onta Foreman proved himself to be enough of a threat on the ground to force opposing defenses to respect the run. The ability to benefit from play action, in-and-of-itself, reinserts that dynamic weapon into Tannehill’s pocket that was sorely missed during brutal back-to-back defeats.

Julio Jones, TEN ($5.4K DK | $6.5K FD) vs. Tyson Campbell, JAX

The best example of the type of numbers Tannehill and Julio are capable of against Cover 3, look back to Week 2. A.J. Brown was still on the mend from double knee surgery. Tannehill fed Jones with a 6/128/0 line on eight targets for 21.8/15.8 FPs against the Cover 3-heavy scheme. Since then, Jones has played a secondary role to AJB in his five other games. Over his last 30 games, Jones has manufactured 0.54 FP/Rt (15th-most), 3.09 YPRR (ninth-most), and a 29% target rate when defenses put Cover 1 on the field (14th-highest). Against Cover 3, he’s been one of the very best in the game with 0.59 FP/Rt (fifth-most), 3.58 YPRR (the most), 12.8 YPT (fourth-most), and a 28% target rate (fourth-highest).

The Jags are giving way to 38.1 FPG to WRs (seventh-most) and 1.92 RZ touches/game (fourth-most). Jones is set to draw the most coverage snaps across from Tyson Campbell. The ‘21 second-rounder is handing out 1.63 YPCS (sixth-most among 79 qualified outside CBs), 0.32 FP/CS (13th-most), 0.18 AY/CS (24th-most), and a 103.9 TPR (25th-highest). Shaquill Griffin is set to return from a two-game absence due to lingering concussion symptoms. His quality coverage over Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4.5K/$5.7K) places even more importance on Jones making an instant impact for the Titans in his first game off IR. And we can roster one of the top WRs in the game with a rookie in coverage with discount WR34/WR24 pricing.

Final notes on Jacksonville

Trevor Lawrence ($5.1K/$6.3K) confronted the coaching staff recently in support of James Robinson ($5.8K/$6.4K). While HC Urban Meyer tried to intimate that the reasoning behind JRob missing large chunks of the last two games due to injury, it’s now clear that the reasoning was entirely centered on losing fumbles. You can listen to T-Law for yourself in the video below:

Meyer suggests that he had no hand in the decisions, and that he will now handle the RB personnel decisions. For one, it sure sounds as though the Jags are guilty of manipulating injury reporting. Second, not a good look at all that Carlos Hyde ($4.6K/$5.8K) also lost a fumble last week, and returned on the very next series. In any case, getting Robinson featured carries is all we need to hear. He’s been one of the most efficient RBs all season. And his RB25/RB30 pricing may represent one of the top RB values on the main slate.

Facing off with A.J. Terrell and Jalen Ramsey the last two weeks — in my opinion the No. 1 and No. 2 most elite perimeter CBs in the game — resulted in 4.95 FPG for Marvin Jones Jr. ($4.5K/$5.4K). Week 14 will present him with a get-right game directly from the Hall of Get-Rightness against a Titans’ defense hemorrhaging 43.3 FPG to opposing WRs (the most) and 2.25 RZ touches/game (second-most). Since Jones puts in plenty of work outside left and from the slot, he’ll do the most work against Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden. Fulton has been well above average in coverage, but Molden is allowing 1.34 YPCS (12th-most), 0.30 FP/CS (ninth-most), and a 109.3 TPR (seventh-most).

The next bit of news we’ll get from Meyer will be redirecting blame for Laviska Shenault’s ($4.3K/$5.3K) lack of production on his assistants. HCs should always be in the business of accepting responsibility for poor decisions on the staff he assembled. Anyhow, Shenault will also do plenty of work against Molden. And he’s been provided with at least a 19% target share in five straight games. With Jones canceled out the last two weeks and Shenault doing next to nothing, Laquon Treadwell ($3.4K/$5.1K) averaged 9.8 FPG. Perhaps I’m being bullish, but he’s one of the easiest fades of the week. Robinson, Jones, and Shenault should absorb every bit of his upside this week. James O'Shaughnessy ($2.9K/$4.5K) is getting Dan Arnold-like volume while running 70% of his routes detached (15th-highest), he’s just not providing Arnold quality in return.

Final notes on Tennessee

Looking forward to seeing my D’Onta Foreman ($5.1K/$5.9K) shares pay off this week. Jacksonville has supplied opposing backs with 26.8 FPG the last four weeks (eighth-most).

I had similar plans to utilize Dontrell Hilliard ($5.3K/$7.0K), but Jeremy McNichols ($5.2K/$5.3K) returning to practice curtailed that design. While we’re on the subject of Hilliard, what in the world was FD thinking when they assigned RB18 pricing to Hilliard!?!

Chester Rogers ($3.4K/$5.2K) has had numerous chances to step forward for this offense. On 250 routes, he’s provided 0.199 FP/Rt in return (13th-fewest among 108 qualified WRs). It may be a role that he’ll surrender once Golden Tate is up to speed learning the offense. Geoff Swaim ($2.8K/$4.5K) returned to the field in Week 12 after a one-game absence, but he did not return to the same role. It’s no surprise that Anthony Firkser ($2.7K/$4.9K) led the way in route percentage since he’s run 89% of his routes detached this season (second-highest). But MyCole Pruitt ($2.5K/$4.8K) nearly doubling his TE teammates up with an 11% target share came out of nowhere.

Matchups to Target

Antonio Gibson, WAS ($6.0K DK | $7.4K FD) vs. Cowboys’ Cover 1 | 2

You’ll quickly notice a not-so-subtle lean toward one side in this matchup. Of all injuries suffered in the game, my respect for the care provided to players suffering concussions stands out above all others. CTE is a massive issue that the NFL has done everything within its power to right the wrongs of the past. And, while I’m not a doctor, I did devote over a decade of my life to the prevention of concussions in football. And the concussion suffered by J.D. McKissic did not appear to be of the one-week absence variety. By all accounts, McKissic certainly seems motivated to clear the protocol as quickly as possible, but gaining that final, independent sign-off should prevent him from taking the field for, at least, another week.

For the second-straight week, Antonio Gibson took on at least 20% of the target share. Wendell Smallwood was targeted twice on three routes, but that summarizes the extent of his role. The last time Gibson faced Dallas (Week 12 of last season), he generated 39.6 FPs during Washington’s 41-16 Thanksgiving Day victory. The presence of Dak Prescott will undoubtedly alter the dynamic of the matchup, but this is still a spot designed for Gibson to succeed. His 17.1 FPs from Week 13 may not highlight the importance he played, but he touched the ball on 46% of his team’s offensive snaps, and accounted for 37% of the yardage production toward claiming their fourth-straight victory.

The circumstances surrounding McKissic’s inability to take the field are unfortunate but, if Gibson leads WFT to a fifth-straight win over their heated Rival, the up-tempo role Gibson took on last week may not be available to McKissic upon gaining clearance. The RB20/RB12 pricing for Gibson with this level of anticipated volume places him inside my top-five RBs for Week 14.

Terry McLaurin, WAS ($7.0K DK | $7.1K FD) vs. Anthony Brown, DAL

Between attacking the Raiders’ run defense as the primary goal, the massive rate of Cover 3 from Las Vegas, Casey Hayward Jr.’s elite coverage, and Washington attempting to grind out the clock after taking a 14-6 fourth quarter lead, the 5.2/3.7 FPs scored by Terry McLaurin last week can be understood. The Football Team has actually worked against two of the top-three Cover 3 rates in consecutive weeks. But they will be in for a scheme-treat in Week 14. Dallas is using the highest rate of Cover 1 this season. The last time we saw WFT opposed by a top-five rate of Cover 1, F1 McLaurin registered a 5/103/1 line on seven targets for 24.3/18.8 FPs at Carolina in Week 11.

Poor QB play the last two seasons kept McLaurin from breaching the top-20, but he still managed 0.46 FP/Rt (23rd-most among 110 qualified WRs) and reached the end zone for 50% of his total TDs on only 25% of routes against Cover 1 over his 41-game career. Anthony Brown will draw the challenge of containing Terry McScorin. As the 10th-most targeted outside corner, Brown is relinquishing 1.42 YPCS (16th-most), 0.29 FP/CS (25th-most), 0.19 AY/CS (19th-most), and an 81.0 TPR (26th-best – another anomaly) to his coverage responsibilities.

The ‘Boys are responsible for distributing 37.1 FPG to WRs (eighth-most), 261.4 passing YPG (fifth-most), 7.18 YPA (ninth-most), an 18.7% completion rate on 20-plus throws (second-highest), and a 3.73% completion rate on 40-plus throws (fourth-highest). I have a massive exposure percentage dedicated to McLaurin on both platforms for all of these reasons.

Final notes on Dallas

Love the general potential of Dak Prescott’s ($6.7K/$8.1K) QB9 pricing on DK, but Washington has completely flipped the script on passing game allowances during their four-game winning streak. I’ve gotta admit, the fact that WFT has held opposing offenses to 17.4 PPG the last five weeks concerns — bordering on scares — me. That number would rank third-lowest compared to the full season allowances. Ezekiel Elliott ($7.3K/$6.9K) is already playing at less than full health, Tony Pollard ($6.4K/$6.1K) is extremely questionable with a foot injury, and Dallas has already signed Ito Smith – a damning signal regarding Pollard’s chances of suiting up. A RB addition that early in the week could be a sign that Pollard may need an IR stint.

Third-year breakout Hunter Renfrow is the only wideout to post 15 FPs or more against Washington since Week 7 – the week prior to WFT altering their scheme rotation. The Football Team’s current rotation includes the seventh-highest rate of Cover 4 as the go-to, the 17-highest of Cover 2 – a number rising by the week, and 13th-highest of Cover 3. Over the last two weeks on 82 coverage snaps, William Jackson III has allowed all of a 2/3/0 line on five targets with Tyler Lockett, Bryan Edwards, and Zay Jones as his victims. One week after showing obvious signs of post-COVID fatigue, Amari Cooper ($5.9K/$6.7K) will be the next focus of WJ3’s attention.

While Kendall Fuller’s metrics suggest he’s been more lenient than Jackson, over the last three games on 83 snaps in coverage, he’s limited his responsibilities to a 10/89/0 line. It’s not shaping up as a promising encounter for Michael Gallup ($5.5K/$6.1K). Which brings us to the matchup I nearly added as a Target: CeeDee Lamb ($7.2K/$7.8K) vs. Danny Johnson. A 2018 UDFA out of Southern University, Johnson seized the featured nickelback role after it was determined Benjamin St-Juste was not ready for a starting job on the perimeter. For the most part, Johnson managed to avoid the efforts of Lockett during Week 12 in what should’ve been his most difficult challenge as a starter. Lamb will present him with a world of issues this week.

While running 59% of his routes detached (28th-highest), Dalton Schultz ($5.4K/$5.7K) has created 35% of his FPG total with play action this season. The misdirection will come in handy against a Washington defense surrendering the 12th-most FP/CS (0.36) and seventh-highest completion rate on deep targets (23%) to opponents on play action.

Final notes on Washington

If only to avoid writing up a QB, RB, and WR for WFT without individual analysis on a single Dallas player, the choice was made to push Taylor Heinicke ($5.5K/$7.1K) to Final Notes. However, he is going to face a Matchup to Target, and I will have exposure. As difficult as it may be to believe for some, from a scouting perspective, Heinicke has been playing at a top-five QB level extending quite a bit beyond Washington’s current four-game winning streak. Take a very cautious approach with Wendell Smallwood ($4.0K/$4.7K). In my view, he is not even worthy of a 150-lineup GPP dart throw.

If you’re looking for an intriguing dart, check out DeAndre Carter ($3.4K/$5.2K) inside the coverage of Trevon Diggs. The younger Diggs possesses a ton of otherworldly traits, but he is far from a polished product. Relinquishing splash plays due to his over-aggressiveness being his most significant weakness. His three-year numbers fall short of qualifying, but his 0.44 FP/Rt and 150.1 TPR speak to Carter’s upside when facing Cover 1. On only 23% of his routes over his last 25 games, Carter has collected 33% of his receptions, 33% of his total yardage, and 67% of his TDs. Adam Humphries ($3.5K/$5.0K) is mostly playing on borrowed time until it’s clear Curtis Samuel ($3.6K/$4.8K) is healthy enough for a featured role. There is no question as to whether Carter has outplayed Humphries this season.

Considering that Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones both rank inside the top-10 TEs in detached rate, we can count on seeing a rise in John Bates’ ($3.0K/$4.6K) if he’s set for a featured role (if RSJ doesn’t play).

Matchups to Target

Taysom Hill, NO ($5.6K DK | $7.7K FD) vs. Jets’ Cover 4

One player stands out above all others in Week 14 based on unlimited upside, pricing value potential, and the matchup on deck: Taysom Hill. Only a handful of players at any position have the potential to register 40-plus FPs in a single matchup. Yes, that includes factoring all players in a faceoff with the Jets. Hill threw down 264 passing yards, two TD strikes, 101 rushing yards, and 27.7/24.7 FPs – the lack of three-point bonuses on FD is a continual annoyance – on the Cowboys last week. How Thor-terback managed QB9 pricing on FD is puzzling, how he collected 🤯 QB17 🤯 pricing on DK is one of the mysteries of the century.

Intending 100% seriousness, Hill should have 100% ownership in every Cash/Single-Entry contest where he’s available on DK this week. And I cannot be persuaded otherwise. It’s the equivalent of finding out that salary decision makers mistakenly priced Cooper Kupp at $4.0K rather than the intended $9.0K. Hill is such a tremendous upside/value/smash-spot everything that I will dedicate the most GPP lineup exposure to a player I’m fully aware will have a massive ownership number since, well… since Taysom Hill was listed with TE eligibility while heading into his first career start against Atlanta in Week 11 of last season. By the way, even with GPP ownership numbers between 85-90+% in that start, across all large-field contests where I submitted a lineup, each of the millionaire-winning lineups were all decided with Hill nestled into the TE slot.

Has Taysom turned the ball over nine times across five starts? Absolutely. We are looking for the most FPs here… not making efforts to grade the quality of every opportunity. In my career as a fantasy analyst, I’ve made it a point to direct all of the attention I can muster toward a single player on two occasions. You already know where this is headed… Hill in Week 11 of ‘20 and Hill this week.

To drive the nail home, let’s close with some meat-and-potato metrics. NYJ is gift-wrapping the most FPG to opposing offenses this season (102.6). They are stuffing 17.0 pure passing FPG into opposing QBs' stockings (third-most). Since I am dedicated to the belief that even the most dominant run defenses would need to pull out every trick to contain Hill’s efforts to use his legs, the allowance potential on the ground is best drawn from a defense's offerings to RBs. And New York adorns opposing RBs’ evergreen conifers with the most FPG (35.6). The Jets are glazing the Christmas/Hanukkah/Holiday ham with the following:

  • 263.4 passing YPG (fourth-most)

  • 71% completion rate (second-highest)

  • 7.82 YPA (second-most)

  • 18.6% completion rate on deep targets (third-highest)

  • 41% passing first down rate (the highest)

  • 133.4 rushing YPG (third-most)

  • 4.5 YPC (seventh-most)

  • 3.11% rate of 20-plus yard runs (fourth-most)

  • 1.75 rushing TDs/game (the most)

  • 396.8 total YPG (the most)

  • 30.6 team PPG (the most)

Hill hasn’t accumulated enough snaps across from Cover 4 to draw any type of reliable conclusions. But his five starts under center fall just shy of the 100 dropback threshold. If his Cover 3 data did qualify, his 0.51 FP/Db would rank as the third-best. What we can take to the bank is that on 31% of dropbacks, Hill has generated 34% of his yardage, and 67% of his TD passes during his last 40 games. If the Jets’ offense manages to generate points – and they’ve somehow managed to score at least 17 points in eight of their last nine games.

We are so very rarely handed a winning lottery ticket. When one is offered, sidestepping it by looking for leverage is not an intelligent approach. You cash the damn thing into the closest Jiffy store. We all need to make our own decisions, but I have devoted one of the largest sums of money to a single player in all of my years of DFS devotion.

Elijah Moore, NYJ ($K DK | $K FD) vs. Marshon Lattimore, NO

Since Elijah Moore is currently questionable with a new quadriceps injury, I’ll keep this somewhat brief. Moore has averaged 20.7 FPG over the last five weeks. In Zach Wilson’s second game back from IR, he assembled a 6/77/1 line on 12 targets — 33% target share — for 20.6/17.6 FPs against the Eagles. A Philadelphia defense holding opposing wideouts to the second-fewest FPG this season (28.8). Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Antonio Brown, and Keenan Allen are the only other WRs to register at least 15 FPs against Philly this season. Moore enters a Week 14 matchup with the Saints’ defense utilizing the eighth-highest rate of Cover 1, fifth-highest of Cover 4.

The Saints are delivering 38.4 FPG to opposing WR units (fifth-most). New Orleans offers the opposition the third-most FP/CS (0.46), fourth-highest TPR (127.0), and third-most TD receptions (nine) in defense of teams using play action. Moore is extracting 28% of his total FPG (3.54) on play action. We need more of a sample size across from Cover 4 to draw reliable conclusions, but Moore has posted 0.39 FP/Rt (46th-best), and garnered a 33% target share (third-highest) against Cover 1 during his rookie season. He’ll match skills with Marshon Lattimore this week. Marshon is bleeding out 1.79 YPCS (fourth-most), 0.38 FP/CS (third-most), 0.23 AY/CS (11th-most), and a 115.8 TPR (12th-highest) as the 18th-most targeted outside corner. We just need Moore on the field to take advantage.

Matchups to Avoid

Zach Wilson, NYJ ($5.3K DK | $6.6K FD) vs. Saints’ Cover 1 | 4

Week 13 Opponent: Eagles

Results: 226 passing yards, two TDs, INT, rushing TD, and 22.0 FPs

Week 14 Opponent: Saints

Schemes: C1 and C4

Allowances: 18.5 FPG to QBs (sixth-most), 14.1 pure passing FPG (12th-fewest)

Scheme History: C1: 0.09 FP/Db (37th-best out of 37 qualified QBs), 44.3 passer rating (37th), zero TDs and three INTs on 28% of dropbacks

C4: 0.17 FP/Db, 74.6 passer rating, zero TDs on 7% of dropbacks (unqualified data)

This matchup with the Saints will either stand as a turning point in Zach Wilson’s rookie season, or further fortify his monumental issues dealing with Cover 1. Mormon Manziel submitted his third floor covering performance of his rookie season. He didn’t shock the world with his efficiency, but that takes nothing away from Wilson accounting for three total TDs and 22.0 FPs against a gritty Eagles’ defense. As mentioned, N’Orleans features the eighth-highest rate of Cover 1, and fifth-highest of Cover 4.

Wilson has stumbled every step of the way attempting to attack Cover 1, only managing 0.09 FP/Db (37th-best out of 37 qualified QBs), a 44.3 passer rating (37th), zero TDs and three INTs on 28% of dropbacks. His Cover 4 data is unqualified, but he’s entering 0.17 FP/Db, 74.6 passer rating, and zero TDs on 7% of dropbacks. The glimmer of hope is found in the Saints shipping 18.5 FPG to QBs (sixth-most), but that number needs to be qualified by only permitting 14.1 pure passing FPG (12th-fewest).

Jamison Crowder, NYJ ($4.7K DK | $5.5K FD) vs. P.J. Williams, NO

We have a shiny new, very-poorly contrived photoshop dedicated to the quality of work from 2015 third-round, safety-to-nickelback convert P.J. Williams and 2014 first-round, dimeback/situational perimeter corner Bradley Roby. The pair have combined to provide coverage stability on the interior of the defense, an area of the field where the Saints were decimated earlier in the season. Roby is still undergoing an adjustment stage entirely expected from an athlete of his size (5-foot-11) and speed (4.39 40-time) being forced to do much of his work on the inside. But Williams has instantly emerged as one of the top-three nickel corners in the league. He’s limiting his responsibilities to 0.63 YPCS (second-fewest), 0.15 FP/CS (fourth-fewest), 0.06 AY/CS (seventh-fewest), and a 50.5 TPR (second-lowest). This otherworldly slot combo packs far too much athleticism for us to consider Jamison Crowder as an option in Week 14.

Final notes on New Orleans

Were going to see a ton of ownership tossed Alvin Kamara’s ($7.9K/$9.0K) way this week. He couldn’t return to face a better matchup but, for those considering him in Cash/SE, allow me to refresh the collective memory that AK41 only averaged 14.2 FPG and four targets/game during Taysom Hill’s four starts last season. That said, Kamara could drunken-monkey-form his way toward covering his floor against this defense. Especially since Mark Ingram II ($5.8K/$7.2K) appears set to miss Week 14 due to a COVID deactivation stint — so does Ty Montgomery ($3.3K/$4.9K).

It’s very unfortunate that the NFL slapped a three-game ban on Deonte Harris. He had just established an interesting rapport with Hill in Week 13. We can always lean in Marquez Callaway’s ($4.3K/$5.5K) direction when the opposing defense features a high rate of Cover 3. Tre’Quan Smith ($4.8K/$5.6K) is never someone I will even give a moment of consideration toward. Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($3.2K/$4.8K) actually emerged as the next WR name on the list with the cleanest wavelength with Hill. And his role should grow starting in Week 14 without Harris. Juwan Johnson ($2.9K/$4.4K) provides the Joker/Move TE variant with 75% of his routes detached (eighth-most), but Hill clearly preferred the cut of Nick Vannett’s ($3.1K/$4.7K) (83% inline and slot) gib over working with another oversized slot body.

Final notes on New York

A concussion suffered in practice will most likely keep Tevin Coleman ($5.0K/$5.4K) off the field this week. If the Jets were facing a less adept run defense, Austin Walter ($4.0K/$4.8K) would be an intriguing option with linoleum pricing. And New Orleans isn’t one of those stout run defenses being decimated by RBs through the air. Besides, Wilson is not in the RB targeting game, so disregard any Ty Johnson ($4.4K/$4.9K) ideas. With Corey Davis landing on season-ending IR, we can expect a wideout emerging to absorb some of his volume. The most likely of available options is Denzel Mims ($3.0K/$4.7K). He’d provide a tremendous deep threat across from Moore to really give safeties fits over the top.

The only other option that interests me is Braxton Berrios ($3.0K/$4.7K). He’s been sneaky efficient with his opportunities, even venturing to work on the perimeter a bit in recent weeks. If neither manages to step up, we’re going to be stuck dealing with a rotation that also includes Keelan Cole Sr. ($3.1K/$4.7K) and Jeff Smith ($3.0K/$4.6K). Ryan Griffin ($2.9K/$4.7K) fills a traditional TE role where he runs 88% of his routes inline and out of the slot. But an ankle injury to Griffin could result in Kenny Yeboah ($2.5K/$4.0K) seeing some featured work. He is unrefined inline, but easily represents the NYJ TE with the most receiving upside.

Matchups to Target

Cam Newton, CAR ($5.4K DK | $7.4K FD) vs. Falcons’ Cover 1 | 2

We will never chase after Cam Newton exposure with his arm as the centerpiece of the attraction. He’s sifted 53% of his FPG output from his work on the ground. A rushing TD in each of his last three for Carolina won’t raise any eyebrows. But 92 passing yards, a pair of INTs, and 8.2 FPs against Miami in Week 12 should serve as an excellent deterrent for a solid percentage of the field. Nobody is suggesting that we should disregard Newton’s performance against the Dolphins. It stands as a stark reminder of Cam’s basement floor apartment. But the ‘Phins have limited opposing QBs to the sixth-fewest FPG over the last four weeks (11.6).

With QB19/QB12 pricing, Newton will face an Atlanta defense surrendering 20.7 FPG to QBs (second-most), and, with RB output standing as the most reliable comparator, i.e., Taysom Hill, 26.6 FPG to RBs (fifth-most). Just for procedure’s sake, the Falcons are using the highest rate of Cover 2 and 10th-highest of Cover 1. We have nothing even remotely close to enough Cover 2 reps to draw reliable conclusions. But Newton is producing 0.17 FP/Db against Cover 1 (second-fewest)… perhaps the most significant flaw in Newton’s game for longer than most of the world realizes.

Final notes on Atlanta

The Panthers are utilizing the seventh-highest rate of Cover 1. It’s a number that has continued to multiply at an insane rate during the last six games. Without Calvin Ridley’s mad Cover 1 skills, Matt Ryan ($5.3K/$6.8K) has been forced to entirely rely on Cordarrelle Patterson ($6.9K/$7.8K) and Kyle Pitts ($5.5K/$5.9K) 00 80% of his rookie routes aligned detached (third-most) — for the entirety of his single coverage production. At this stage in the game, counting Patterson out can be detrimental to our weekly DFS existence. But we do have an example of C-Pat working against this legit Panthers’ defense. He fell a hair below floor value in Week 8, and that was prior to his current salary spike.

Russell Gage ($5.7K/$6.2K) has pieced together a solid two-game stretch of production, but against Zone-heavy rotations of Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Gage has never been a reliable Cover 1 option. Making matters worse, his preferred alignment now that he’s doing work on the outside is that he’ll see considerable snaps across from Stephon Gilmore. Tajae Sharpe ($3.6K/$4.8K) is simply out of his league with Donte Jackson dialing in on his work. And Olamide Zaccheaus ($3.8K/$5.1K) is a continual fade until he’s working against enough Cover 6 snaps to matter.

Final notes on Carolina

The race to absorb the available touches vacated by Christian McCaffrey begins now. Chuba Hubbard ($5.9K/$6.5K) would seem to be the obvious choice, but the removal of Joe Brady as OC adds a considerable wrinkle. I will think Hubbard will emerge with the lead role, but the recent involvement of Ameer Abdullah ($4.8K/$5.2K) does prevent me from taking that much interest. If Newton were to be supplanted by P.J. Walker ($4.7K/$6.1K), the RB1 for Carolina would draw far more intrigue. As it stands, we all know Cam is going to garner nearly all of the goal-to-go carries.

My first instinct was to elevate this spot for DJ Moore Jr. ($6.2K/$6.8K) with plenty of lineup love. However, it finally dawned on my brain that DJM’s preference for working on the right perimeter on nearly half of his weekly routes would land him in A.J. Terrell territory. Yikes! Since Sideshow Bob Anderson ($4.3K/$5.5K) provides the level of reliability/accountability as Ian Thomas ($2.5K/$4.4K), it shouldn’t take new OC Jeff Nixon long to realize that he can get Moore out from underneath the Terrell shadow by simply shifting his alignment. Terrell has planted roots extending miles into the left side of the defense. And Nixon sounds dedicated to using the run to set up deep shots over the top. Easier said than done with the recent faceplant of the deep passing numbers, but Nixon isn’t going to get anywhere close to accomplishing that goal with Moore being featured on those deep shots.

As outrageous as it reads, Brandon Zylstra ($3.0K/$4.8K) has run circles around Anderson in route efficiency. While Zylstra is registering a number (0.396 FP/Rt) just under Moore’s (0.405), Anderson’s 0.181 FP/Rt is the eighth-lowest number among 113 qualified WRs. Nobody can excuse away Sam Darnold’s complete implosion during his final three games but, at least personally, seeing Darnold work with a healthy CMC and a capable wideout opposite Moore is an absolute must before the 24-year-old is written off entirely. Unless they manage to acquire a difference-making veteran, Carolina should still devote their 2022 first-rounder to one of the several promising QBs.

The remaining five games of the season provides Nixon with a perfect opportunity to evaluate what they have in Terrace Marshall Jr. ($3.1K/$4.7K) and Shi Smith ($3.0K/$4.6K). For the sake of seeing Nixon get off to a positive start, relegate Ian Thomas to the strict blocking role attached to the O-line, and do not be afraid to toss in some creativity with the usage of Tommy Tremble ($2.6K/$4.7K).

Matchups to Target

Keenan Allen, LAC ($7.6K DK | $7.6K FD) vs. Jarren Williams, NYG

NOTE: Obviously, Allen will need to clear COVID protocols.

If Adoree’ Jackson misses another game – which seems likely — Aaron Robinson will work the perimeter again. That extremely-close-to-becoming-a-reality-scenario would land Jarren Williams, a ‘20 UDFA with all of 18 career coverage snaps to his name, across from Keenan Allen. Working in a must-win scenario on the road in Cincinnati, Allen took to the spray painted grass to double his yearly TD total. His first score was earned with both Mike Hilton and Logan Wilson on his hips, and Vonn Bell landing a hit right as he secured the ball. His second TD of the day was not as glorious, taking a casual stroll in the tiger-stripped park while Jessie Bates III completely blew his coverage assignment. With Cincy putting the 10th-highest rate of Cover 3 and 15th-highest of Cover 4 on the field in Week 13, it was a watered-down dress rehearsal for the setup Allen will work against this week.

The Giants are placing the fourth-highest rate of Cover 3 and 10th-highest of Cover 4 into action this season. In every game played since Week 2, New York has featured a top-five rate of either Cover 3 or Cover 4. In two of those weeks, NYG used top-five rates of both Cover 3 and Cover 4. That leaves us with four games of top-five Cover 3 rates and four of Cover 4. It’s clearly a usage rotation that is impossible to predict, likely determined behind closed doors by the staff each week. Luckily for Slayer, both of those exact schemes represent his favs. Against Cover 4 during his previous 42 games, Allen has constructed 0.47 FP/Rt (10th-most), 2.02 YPRR (19th-most), and drawn 31% of the targets (the highest). Over the same stretch of games across from Cover 3, Allen has contrived 0.44 FP/Rt (16th-most) and a 25% target share (12th-highest).

Tossing a highly amusing stat into the pot – accompanied by a devious chuckle, I might add, Allen has collected three TDs on 338 routes against Cover 3 over the last three seasons vs. zero TDs on 301 routes for Mike Williams. The 35.9 FPG allowed to opposing WRs (10th-most), 37.6 FPG over the last four weeks (fourth-most), and 2.08 RZ touches/game (third-most) are going to look even better this week without Adoree’ on the field. Either way, Allen’s outlook remains unchanged as an excellent value, entering what could be the most cohesive schematic meld of his season.

Final notes on New York

Prospects in East Rutherford reach truly disgusting depths for the Giants without Daniel Jones ($5.4K/$7.0K) running the show. Fow all of his flaws, Danny Dimes represents NYG’s only current path toward competitive play. It appears Mike Glennon ($4.9K/$6.2K) will manage to clear the concussion protocol in time for Sunday’s game. While he’s the obvious name to lead the attack after Jones, the Chargers are not going to put anything close to the Cover 3 rate he’ll require for DFS attention. If New York is forced to hand Jake Fromm ($4.8K/$6.0K) his first career start, plan to head for the exits around halftime.

Either way, QB play severely handicaps the upside for Saquon Barkley ($6.0K/$7.3K). He plummets from a top-5-to-7 RB option with Jones healthy and the offense rolling to a GPP flier with a relatively stable floor. The matchup I worked up for Kadarius Toney ($5.1K/$5.3K) put him across from Chris Harris Jr. Both Toney (quad/oblique) and Harris (COVID) sound as though they’ll be able to play. With Glennon or… gulp… Fromm under center, each of Darius Slayton ($4.4K/$5.0K), Kenny Golladay ($4.8K/$5.5K), Pharoh Cooper ($3.0K/$4.6K), John Ross III ($3.2K/$4.7K), Collin Johnson ($3.0K/$4.6K), Evan Engram ($3.5K/$5.3K), and Kyle Rudolph ($2.6K/$4.4K) hold next to non-existent value this week.

Final notes on Los Angeles

Justin Herbert ($7.1K/$8.4K) will take a hit to his upside if Allen or Mike Williams ($6.0K/$6.9K) is unable to submit negative tests to clear the COVID protocol. One player that may end up seeing a volume boost without Williams could end up being Austin Ekeler ($8.3K/$9.2K). Jalen Guyton ($3.4K/$5.2K) finally provided an ROI for all of the involvement he’s been gifted with a long TD last week. He even followed that score with some filler receptions to end the match with a respectable 4/90/1 line. Am I prepared for an encore? With James Bradberry patrolling the alter side of his typical alignment, I would be shocked out of my shoes if it were to come to pass.

Josh Palmer ($3.0K/$4.7K) both attacks from the interior, opposite Allen, and represents the direct backup to Williams. If he ends up taking on a featured role as Williams’ replacement with WR112/WR106 pricing, prepare yourself for one hell of a salary reliever with unimaginable upside. I’m still not seeing enough involvement for the LAC TEs to get excited, even within the scenario where Williams is absent. Jared Cook ($3.2K/$5.1K) is provided with his three-or-so weekly targets, and I’m not getting excited about two whole catches for Donald Parham Jr. ($2.8K/$4.6K) last week.

Matchups to Target

Jerry Jeudy, DEN ($5.6K DK | $6.3K FD) vs. C.J. Moore, DET

Even facing off with one of the hottest defenses in the league during the last six weeks, Jeudy’s 4.77.0 line on six targets represents his potential against Cover 2. During his career, Jeudy has manufactured 0.52 FP/Rt (third-most), 2.88 YPRR (the most), 14.0 YPT (sixth-most), and a 115.1 TPR (23rd-highest) across from Cover 2. In addition, on 17% of career routes, Jeudy has generated 25% of his receptions, 27% of his yardage, and 33% of his TDs when a Cover 2 is called to defend him.

The Lions are using the fifth-highest rate of Cover 2. And Detroit will ask C.J. Moore and his 22 snaps in coverage the last two seasons to try to slow Jeudy down. The Lions are presenting wideouts with 1.92 RZ touches/game (fourth-most) and 36.0 FPG over the last four weeks (10th-most). If Teddy Bridgewater takes a moment to realize the nuclear opportunity Jeudy returns from this stylistic matchup, we could get big numbers in return for his WR31/WR32 pricing.

Final notes on Detroit

I’m going to make Jared Goff ($5.1K/$6.4K) prove last week’s numbers are more than an outlier. Another game without their most dynamic player, D’Andre Swift ($6.6K/$7.0K), will be a death sentence for this offense against the outstanding Denver defense. You know what to do with Jamaal Williams ($5.5K/$6.2K) and Jermar Jefferson ($4.0K/$5.1K). You’ll need to pluck individuals directly from the home of his parents to find another individual with more belief in the kid’s abilities. But Amon-Ra St. Brown ($5.0K/$5.8K) is an easy fade this week in an overwhelmingly difficult matchup for every individual on their offense.

I’m willing to adjust my view of Josh Reynolds ($4.1K/$5.3K) if he continues to showcase serviceable numbers for Detroit. He’ll see the softest matchup on the team from Ronald Darby, so it’ll be a great opportunity to prove it hasn’t all been a fluke. Feel very, very sorry for Kalif Raymond ($4.2K/$5.0K) with rookie phenom Patrick Surtain II in coverage. The news is not promising for T.J. Hockenson ($5.3K/$6.1K) this week. He’ll need to be at his very best in order to succeed against Denver. With his hand heavily-wrapped, those odds may become insurmountable. Brock Wright ($2.5K/$4.5K) would start if Hock is ultimately ruled out, but he’s far too green to consider in this matchup.

Final notes on Denver

I’ve always taken a stance of attacking ownership of Teddy Bridgewater ($5.7K/$7.2K) when facing Cover 1-heavy defenses. But he’s taken the game manager role to another level. He’s a complete fade in all scenarios these days. I was ultra-excited to put my Javonte Williams ($5.9K/$6.7K) love into words for this matchup. That was until Melvin Gordon III ($5.4K/$6.7K) passed along that he was feeling well enough to play. Major bummer. The only WR worth our time this week is Jeudy. Matchups to fade:

  • Courtland Sutton ($5.3K/$6.0K) vs. Jerry Jacobs

  • Tim Patrick ($4.8K/$5.7K) vs. Amani Oruwariye

  • Noah Fant ($4.5K/$5.8K) vs. whoever

Albert Okwuegbunam ($3.1K/$4.7K) may have only been on the field for half of the reps provided to Fant, but he matched him with a 12% target share. Even better, he comes at a 31%/19% discount.

Matchups to Target

Mike Evans, TB ($6.6K DK | $7.2K FD) vs. Levi Wallace, BUF

Mike Evans didn’t have the PPR outburst numbers comparable to Chris Godwin’s, but his 7/99/0 line is far from a disappointment. If one individual player on the Buccaneers’ offense was set to face a shutdown opponent, fading would be the logical move. But the entire Buffalo secondary is represented by crazy good numbers on paper. But those numbers have yet to adjust for the absence of Tre'Davious White. For Evans, he’ll do his most work across from Levi Wallace. To date, Wallace is limiting his coverage to 0.90 YPCS (19th-fewest), 0.23 FP/CS (28th-fewest), 0.13 AY/CS (17th-fewest), and a 79.7 TPR (24th-lowest).

The Bills are utilizing the fifth-highest rate of Cover 1, finishing with the highest rate in two of the last three. And they have only provided 22.6 FPG to opposing WRs (the fewest). I know targeting a wideout about to face the stingiest defense on the planet may give pause, but we’re talking about an offense led by The GOAT. And Evans is generating 0.54 FP/Rt (16th-best), 2.52 YPRR (17th-best), and a 116.3 TPR (23rd-most) during his last three seasons across from Cover 1.

Rob Gronkowski, TB ($6.0K DK | $7.0K FD) vs. Bills’ Cover 1

Solid three-year numbers for Evans against Cover 1 may not be that convincing on their own, but this write-up will walk you further toward the truth. Buffalo is only giving up 8.1 FPG to TEs (second-fewest). But they’ve been carrying out their business across mere mortals. On 22% of his routes since returning from retirement, Rob Gronkowski has tracked down 29% of his catches, 32% of his yardage, and 53% of his TDs against Cover 1. He’s also creating 0.74 FP/Rt (the most), a 126.8 TPR (fourth-highest), 14.0 AY/Tgt (second-most), 2.52 YPRR (fourth-most), and 9.89 YPT (fourth-most). As the top TE to ever step onto a football field, Gronk has not only built his career around Super Bowl victories, he’s the finest TE example to ever attack Cover 1, and also holds the same title when dismantling Cover 2.

Matchups to Avoid

Emmanuel Sanders, BUF ($4.9K DK | $5.8K FD) vs. Jamel Dean, TB

Unlike recommending Evans and Gronk exposure with excellent numbers, but in matchups where the opposition’s numbers suggest they’ll fail, listing Emmanuel Sanders as an Avoid is not going to create a stir. Sanders hasn’t been relevant in DFS since Week 5. The Buccaneers feature the fourth-highest rate of Cover 2 and ninth-highest of Cover 3. For his part, Sanders has manufactured 0.31 FP/Rt against Cover 2 (38th-most) and 0.36 FP/Rt vs. Cover 3 (40th-most). Far from terrible averages, and the Bucs are offering 34.9 FPG to WRs (16th-most).

But Jamel Dean will be sheriffing the side of the field Sanders is set to inhabit. And Dean has been one of the top-five corners since the very beginning of Tampa Bay’s hot streak late last season that resulted in a Super Bowl victory. On the season, Dean is ghosting his coverage with 0.68 YPCS (fifth-fewest), 0.15 FP/CS (fourth-fewest), 0.12 AY/CS (12th-fewest), and a 56.7 TPR (second-lowest). Blindly point a finger at any other wideout set to play meaningful snaps. He’ll post a better outing than Sanders this week.

Final notes on Buffalo

I’m not going to venture so far as to list Josh Allen ($7.8K/$8.8K) as a complete Avoid with his ability to generate numbers on the ground. But the Buccaneers are presenting a rotation that features the exact coverages that shut Allen down in Weeks 9 and 11. Tread carefully. Matt Breida ($5.3K/$5.4K), Devin Singletary ($4.7K/$5.5K), and Zack Moss ($4.5K/$5.4K)!?! No sir. Not this week or in any future week. If Carlton Davis is back to 100% health — which is likely the case since Tampa Bay held him out for nine weeks in order to reach that point — Stefon Diggs ($8.1K/$8.2K) is going to find the going tough in Week 14.

The Bills’ wideout to target will be Cole Beasley ($5.0K/$5.9K). Now that Sean Murphy-Bunting has been returned to the slot, his unqualified 2.08 YPCS, 0.44 FP/CS, 0.61 AY/CS, and 124.0 TPR will all be to the benefit of Beasley. The rumblings have begun, with complaints directed at the efficiency of the Buffalo offense. It’s unlikely that they’ll realize one of the answers was staring them directly in the face until it’s too late, but moving Gabriel Davis ($3.5K/$4.8K) ahead of Sanders on the depth chart is a move that should have been carried out early in the season. After Beasley, Dawson Knox ($5.0K/$6.0K) is the most intriguing play for Buffalo. But I am concerned that Allen may struggle feeding the numbers for two receivers. Yes, that’s how concerned I am with Allen’s matchup.

Final notes on Tampa Bay

He’s TB12. His opponent is going to throw a massive amount of man coverage at him. I don’t care what QB allowance numbers from the Bills state, Tom Brady ($7.6K/$8.2K) is going to put up GOAT numbers. And I have zero concerns with Leonard Fournette ($7.4K/$7.6K) managing value against the Bills. He’s a dual-threat practitioner, playing for arguably the most dangerous offense in the league, and has been peppered with goal-to-go carries in recent weeks. Just don’t count on seeing Ronald Jones II ($4.2K/$4.8K) vulturing another TD this week. When we have a Zone-heavy matchup on the docket – especially Cover 2, until Antonio Brown returns from suspension, think Chris Godwin ($7.1K/$7.7K). But Rod-God is the one TB stud I’m expecting will struggle this week. He’ll face the top-five nickel coverage of Taron Johnson, and he’s never done well in man-heavy matchups.

It was only a matter of time now that Brown has been handed a three-game suspension. Tyler Johnson ($3.2K/$4.7K) was finally dropped down the depth chart. But I was a bit surprised to see that it wasn’t Scotty Miller ($3.0K/$4.7K) to receive the next opportunity. Instead, Breshad Perriman ($3.0K/$4.5K) is now set to be featured on the right side. Dane Jackson is no slouch in coverage but Perriman packs WR112/WR156 pricing, a featured role, and a history of success against Cover 1.

Matchups to Target

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN ($6.9K DK | $7.2K FD) vs. Deommodore Lenoir, SF

Losing Emmanuel Moseley could not have come at a worst time for the 49ers. Without Moseley — their top perimeter corner — SF will be forced to feature ‘21 fifth-rounder Deommodore Lenoir. His numbers are unqualified, but they are significant nonetheless. He’s distributing 1.46 YPCS, 0.32 FP/CS, 0.49 AY/CS, and a 121.1 TPR – all of which would rank at the very bottom of the ranks. And Lenoir will face a massive challenge from Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday. The 49ers are utilizing the seventh-highest rate of Cover 3 and fourth-highest of Cover 4. They are providing 35.0 FPG to WRs (15th-most) and 1.75 RZ touches/game (11th-most). During his rookie season, Chase has created 0.45 FP/Rt (12th-most), 2.58 YPRR (10th-most), and 12.5 YPT (sixth-most) against Cover 3. And he’s posted 0.41 FP/Rt (23rd-most) with a 26% target share (eighth-highest) when opponents put a Cover 4 on the field. Lenoir’s deep allowances stand to provide Chase with a massive opportunity to put together another massive line.

Final notes on San Francisco

This game will pit two of the top-five QBs from the ‘21 season – entirely from a scouting perspective. With the level of good Jimmy Garoppolo ($5.8K/$6.7K) has put on the field this season, it’s going to be extremely tough for Trey Lance to unseat him until he falters. It appears that Elijah Mitchell ($6.7K/$7.4K) will be unable to take the field in Week 14. Word out of the San Francisco camp is calling for Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4.4K/$4.9K) to see lead duties, with JaMycal Hasty ($4.0K/$4.7K) maintaining his typical up-tempo role.

Set to list Deebo Samuel ($8.0K/$8.5K) as a Target, his inability to practice this far led to dropping him down to a mere mention. If Samuel is out, my interest in SF receivers will, once again, be directed toward George Kittle ($6.9K/$7.1K). Brandon Aiyuk ($5.8K/$6.4K), Trent Sherfield ($3.0K/$4.7K), and Jauan Jennings ($3.3K/$4.9K) are of little interest.

Final notes on Cincinnati

Now that Tee Higgins ($6.4K/$6.8K) has returned to practice, this could be a nuclear opportunity for both Higgins, Chase, and Joe Burrow ($6.0K/$7.1K). Joe Mixon ($7.7K/$8.5K) is still missing from practice. His absence would obviously benefit Samaje Perine ($4.2K/$6.0K), but it would also frontload the passing offense with an insane volume expectation. That said, no Tyler Boyd ($5.0K/$5.9K) for me with K'Waun Williams rocking on all of his top-10 slot CB cylinders. C.J. Uzomah ($3.0K/$5.1K) has really done nothing wrong in recent weeks. He’s simply being overlooked due to Burrow feeding his wideouts with the volume.

With a dedicated focus on studying game film and a faithful commitment to metrics & analytics, Huber’s specialties include DFS (college and NFL), Devy & Dynasty formats, and second-to-none fantasy analysis of high school prospects.

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