The season’s heating up — and so are the projection edges. Week 7 brings several standout matchups, and the Fantasy Points PrizePicks Pick Finder is once again flagging the biggest differences between Fantasy Points projections and PrizePicks numbers before they move.
From Davante Adams’ explosive zone matchup to Jonathan Taylor’s efficiency edge on the ground, this slate offers clear opportunities to capitalize on volume, alignment trends, and coverage mismatches. Let’s break down the most actionable projection gaps for the week and turn data into wins.
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Projections are current as of 11:00 PM EST on 10/16.
NFL Week 6 Picks
Davante Adams (WR, LAR)
Receiving Yards (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 75.5
Fantasy Points: 90.7
Jacksonville allows the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FP/G to wide-aligned wide receivers. Adams averages 2.22 YPRR against zone coverage and Jacksonville runs zone 79.7% of snaps (4th highest in the league). With Puca Nacua (37.4% of the Rams’ yards against zone and 36.6% overall) potentially out, Adams 23.6% yardage share has a chance to climb sharply.
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
Receiving Yards (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 59.5
Fantasy Points: 73.5
Johnston is fully back at practice and draws a plus matchup. While the Colts are a feel-good story and leading the AFC South, they give up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide-aligned wide receivers. The Colts are one of the most balanced teams in the league in terms of deployed coverages. Johnston is fairly consistent across different coverages, so that sets up well against the Colts. As a plus, I really like Justin Herbert’s pass yard projection advantage.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB, WAS)
Rush Yards (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 71.5
Fantasy Points: 84.2
Washington draws a top-10 offensive lineup matchup against Dallas, who allow the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FP/G to running backs (although the most of it is to receiving backs). Croskey-Merritt averages 5.73 YPC and 5.76 YPC in man/gap runs (68.3% of his carries). Dallas yields 5.43 YPC to man/gap concepts to starting running backs compared to 4.27 yards per carry in zone concepts. It’s an ideal schematic fit.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Rush Yards (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 89.5
Fantasy Points: 105.6
Taylor leads all RBs in projected rush yards this week and holds the largest gap between Fantasy Points and PrizePicks projections (16.1 yards). The Chargers allow the 2nd-highest yards before contact per attempt. This makes up for a mediocre Colts offensive line. Taylor has surpassed this projection half the time this season. He also averages 5+ YPC regardless of game script. Taylor averages only 4.31 yards per carry with zone concept rushes, but the Chargers average 5.02 yards per carry given up to zone concept rushes.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
- Pass + Rush Yards (Standard) — MORE
- PrizePicks: 268.5
- Fantasy Points: 287.0
Dallas versus Washington projects as the highest scoring game of the week. This a plus matchup for each quarterback. With CeeDee Lamb back and healthy, Dak should stay aggressive – averaging 38.2 passing attempts per game and 7.06 yards per attempt. This increases to 7.53 yards per attempt when facing man coverage (which the Commanders run slightly above league average).
Additional Picks
Want more than just Standard options for your lineup? We have you covered.
Kayshon Boutte (WR, NE)
- Receiving Yards (Demon) — MORE
- PrizePicks: 39.5
- Fantasy Points: 43.3
Boutte is coming off a breakout and now faces a Tennessee defense running zone 79.3% of the time. His YPRR vs zone (2.21) outpaces his overall mark (2.03). It’s a strong setup for another productive outing — and a solid Demon play.
WR Leaders in Average Separation Score [Last 3 Weeks]
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 14, 2025
+ @FantasyPtsData
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (0.309)
---peep the insane delta---
2. Tetairoa McMillan (0.184)
2. Davante Adams (0.184)
4. Kayshon Boutte (0.170)
5. Drake London (0.164) pic.twitter.com/4xKi0UW4eg
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
- Rush Yards (Goblin) — MORE
- PrizePicks: 69.5
- Fantasy Points: 94.5
Bijan has topped this projection every week since Week 1. Atlanta’s O-line has a trench advantage again, and his workload spikes from 12.5 to 19 carries in wins. If the Falcons control the game, expect another efficient outing.
Have seen everyone posting the touchdown, but this Bijan Robinson run from last night might be even more impressive to me.
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) October 14, 2025
Accelerates past two defenders as they shed their blocks. Jukes a third out of his shoes. Avoids a fourth from behind, and a fifth bounces off. pic.twitter.com/PsDAbinAnY
Closing Remarks
Week 7’s board is loaded with exploitable projection gaps — from wideouts torching zone coverage to workhorse backs set up for efficiency spikes. Use the FantasyPoints PrizePicks Pick Finder to identify your own mismatches and build smarter lineups before kickoff.
Join the Fantasy Points Discord for live updates, projection changes, and community strategy threads throughout the weekend. The bye weeks might thin depth charts — but for sharp players, they only widen the edges.
