2025 Week 7 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data, we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The Data Suite (with the keen eye of lead charter Steve O’Rourke) allows me to analyze WR/CB fantasy matchups better than I was ever able to in the past.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

Then, later in the week, Ryan Heath examines schematic matchups for NFL Premium and All-In subscribers with his Advanced Matchups column. We believe we attack coverage matchups from every angle for our subscribers.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

Shadow Situations

SHADOW ALERT! Jets CB Sauce Gardner vs. Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan

For the first time in his NFL career, McMillan did not lead the Panthers in receiving yards in a game, garnering just 29 of them against the Cowboys. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that McMillan didn’t have more yards because the end zone impeded his progress — he scored the first 2 touchdowns of his NFL career, paying off for his fantasy managers and anyone who bet on his touchdown prop (as I recommended in last week’s column). He’s been stellar so far in his NFL career, and looks like a star for our game of fantasy.

If he’s going to be a star, he might need to show some of his elite traits this week, because we’re projecting him to catch a shadow from Gardner, who held Courtland Sutton completely in check in an ugly London tilt last week, surrendering just 1 catch for 17 yards on 2 targets — Sutton’s only catch of the game.

Funnily enough, Gardner’s “failures” to shadow this week have come in games similar to what McMillan had last week. Gardner hasn’t allowed a single receiver to catch more than 3 passes on him this year in his primary coverage, but he has allowed 3 TDs as the closest defender to the ball.

We have McMillan ranked as a low-end WR2 this week, and I think that’s fair — I expect Bryce Young will want to get a few targets in the direction of Jalen Coker, who is expected to make his season debut this week. The Panthers need another receiver to step up in general; why not in the week when McMillan catches a shadow? I’ll be considering Coker props and putting him in DFS lineups.

All Systems Go

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle vs. Browns DBs

The Browns made a swap in the secondary last week, acquiring Tyson Campbell from the Jaguars for Greg Newsome — Cleveland believed that Campbell would be a better fit in Jim Schwartz’s more man-heavy scheme. They had better have hoped that to be the case, at least, because we had charted Campbell as having allowed the most receiving yards in his primary coverage in the NFL, and he was especially susceptible to big plays.

It’s just one game in a new system, but the early returns are not great — Campbell surrendered 3 catches for 70 yards to DK Metcalf last week, including a 25-yard touchdown. And now, over the last five weeks, the Browns have allowed the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+5.6), where Waddle runs 75% of his routes on the season (including a season-high 88% last week, after Tyreek Hill’s injury).

My biggest concern is Tua Tagovailoa completely turtling against Myles Garrett and this defensive line, and the weather is expected to be brutal. That will keep me away from his yardage props (and I took a Tua under, full disclosure). But Waddle’s TD prop odds were too long, and we have him projected as a borderline WR1 this week.

Commanders WRs vs. Cowboys DBs

Is it getting boring writing up the Cowboys’ defensive backs every week? Yeah, I guess so. But when it keeps paying the bills, I’ll keep going to work.

No team has allowed more schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to WRs over the last five weeks, and it’s not even close — Dallas is at +20.8, while Indianapolis is 2nd-most with +12.0 (!!). That includes a ridiculous +16.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs (also, unsurprisingly, the most in the NFL). CB Kaiir Elam is getting shredded everywhere in Matt Eberflus’ zone coverage, CB Trevon Diggs is getting shredded in the red zone, and S Donovan Wilson allowed 2 TD in his primary coverage last week against the Panthers.

Moreover, Washington star WR Terry McLaurin (quad) is scheduled to practice this week. That’s not a guarantee he’ll be ready for Sunday, but it’s an encouraging sign for a team that is thin at WR with Noah Brown (groin) going on IR.

One thing I will be monitoring this week: will the Commanders’ coaches publicly support some of their younger WRs? Veteran Chris Moore ran double the routes (26) of Luke McCaffrey (13) and rookie Jaylin Lane (12) in Week 6 — Lane’s 34.3% route share was actually the 2nd-lowest of his career so far despite McLaurin and Brown missing last week.

And Lane, in particular, had an impressive rep…

I wish I could trust my eyes enough to put Lane in a DFS lineup, but the Commanders don’t seem to trust him. If McLaurin plays, he’s a must-start, and so is Deebo Samuel. Maybe I’ll talk myself into a dart throw on Lane, Moore, or McCaffrey by the end of the week.

Chargers WRs vs. Colts DBs

It feels like solving this puzzle will be key to unlocking the Week 7 DFS slate. The Colts are an exploitable secondary — over the last five weeks, they’ve allowed +12.0 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs, behind only the lowly Cowboys for most in the NFL over that span. It also doesn’t help that they lost top CB Charvarius Ward (concussion) to friendly fire in warmups…

The shorthanded Colts gave up 14 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown to Cardinals WRs last week. That’s with the important caveat that Arizona was playing backup QB Jacoby Brissett, and top WR Marvin Harrison Jr. left the action early with a concussion. So, theoretically, it could have been worse.

It will be a challenge for Ward to make it through protocol this week, but Indianapolis might be receiving some good news elsewhere — slot CB Kenny Moore (Achilles) returned to practice this week on a limited basis, marking the first time he’s been on the field since Week 3. A potential return for Moore would help against Ladd McConkey, who seems to be surging on paper… but maybe not in reality.

From Scott Barrett’s Week 7 Everything Report…

“Quentin Johnston topped 70 receiving yards in four of four full games, commanding a 25.2% target share (WR13) to Ladd McConkey’s 15.7% (WR47) over the last three. When healthy, Johnston was clearly the Chargers’ WR1.

With Johnston sidelined in Week 6, McConkey led the team with 100 yards — his first game over 50 since Week 1 — on a 23.7% target share (one more target than Oronde Gadsden, two more than Keenan Allen). But his deployment barely changed. It was actually rookie WR Tre Harris who stepped into the Johnston role, earning an 84.6% route share to McConkey’s 79.5% and Allen’s 69.2%.”

Yeah… that’s interesting. And not terribly encouraging for fantasy. But the reason Harris played so much might have been the little things.

The reason for Harris’ usage might be moot, because Johnston (hamstring) returned to practice on Wednesday, clearing his way to play in Week 7. With Ward likely out in this game, Johnston is probably the best bet to come through at a discounted DFS salary ($5900), and potentially depressed ownership as he’s coming off injury. Allen is cheap too ($5400) if you want to pivot away from Johnston. I’d be least likely to be in on McConkey ($6000) if Moore is back.

Buccaneers WRs vs. Lions DBs

A battle of the walking wounded! The Buccaneers could be down their top three WRs on Monday night if Mike Evans (hamstring) isn’t able to play. We already know the Lions will be down their top three corners.

So why isn’t this matchup a wash? Baker Mayfield, who is playing like an absolute MVP candidate.

The Lions’ beat-up secondary surrendered 3 TDs to the Chiefs’ WRs last week, and they’ll be down their best remaining player, S Brian Branch, who was suspended for slugging JuJu Smith-Schuster after their loss in Kansas City (I imagine Branch did something a lot of his peers around the NFL have wanted to do for a while).

I’m just upset this game isn’t on the main slate for DFS — it would be a lot of fun to see how Tez Johnson, Kameron Johnson, and Sterling Shepard work into lineups. If Evans is back? Well, that’s an immediate smash spot for

Vikings WRs vs. Eagles DBs

This is a “check the injury reports” situation, because both of these teams are banged up — the Vikings do not have a fully healthy QB (whether it’s Carson Wentz or JJ McCarthy), and the Eagles are not fully healthy in the secondary if Quinyon Mitchell (hamstring) can’t play. That would leave Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison perusing the outside against Adoree’ Jackson and Kelee Ringo, matchups that would favor both receivers.

It’s also worth pointing out that despite the Vikings’ offensive line having been dealing with a bunch of injuries, so has the Eagles’ defensive line — which now includes a retirement from Za’Darius Smith. So two weak areas could offset each other.

If I’m reading the tea leaves correctly, I think Wentz is going to be the quarterback in this game, because the Vikings don’t want to bring McCarthy back until he’s fully ready. And based on a small-sample level of play from both, that actually works in the Vikings’ favor for this week in particular. (Wentz’s motivation to show up his old team could always exist, too.)

Again, monitor the injury report on both sides, but I’m leaning toward this being a positive matchup for the Vikings’ receivers.

Pump the Brakes

49ers WRs vs. Falcons DBs

If you’ve gotten two big weeks out of Kendrick Bourne, congratulations! I’m not sure it’s going to continue this week.

The Falcons’ investments into their defense this off-season have paid off so far — Atlanta is 1st in overall defense, 1st in passing defense, 6th in sacks per game, and 9th in turnover margin. AJ Terrell and company have absolutely stymied opposing WRs, holding them to a 5th-fewest -7.6 schedule-adjusted FPG over the last five weeks.

Terrell has surrendered just 71 yards on 14 targets in his primary coverage this year, while slot CB Billy Bowman has been especially exceptional, allowing a minuscule 0.13 PPR FP/coverage snap, and a 41.0 QB rating when targeted. That’s especially bad news for Jauan Jennings, who is playing through what seems like a horrible series of injuries.

As for Bourne, I’m skeptical of both the matchup and the potential lack of chemistry he has with QB Brock Purdy, who looks to return from a toe injury this week. That and the matchup, combined with the expected return of TE George Kittle (hamstring), have me looking at 49er WR unders when the lines come out.

Eagles WRs vs. Vikings DBs

I know there has been a lot of focus on the Eagles’ passing game because of AJ Brown’s perceived whining, but I really think the biggest issue with their offense is simple — they haven’t been able to run the ball. And everything in their offense builds off of their ability to do that well. It was the case when Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift were the top backs, and it’s especially the case with Saquon Barkley. (The Eagles also aren’t designing runs for Jalen Hurts, but I digress.)

And this is a uniquely bad matchup for any passing game.

The Vikings are allowing -13.7 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs over the last five weeks, easily the lowest in the NFL. So Brown and DeVonta Smith have some tough sledding ahead. Meanwhile, over the same span, they’re allowing +4.5 schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs on the ground, 3rd-most in the NFL.

The total of 43.5 in this game is in the bottom half on the slate, which indicates a run-first approach is prudent for Philly.