My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LV Odds|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||8||4-1 (3-2)||-.5||+400|
|2.||Baltimore Ravens||7.5||4-1 (3-2)||—||+550|
|3.||Green Bay Packers||6||4-0 (4-0)||—||+1000|
|4.||Seattle Seahawks||5||5-0 (4-1)||+.5||+800|
|5.||Pittsburgh Steelers||4.5||4-0 (3-1)||+.5||+1400|
|6.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||4.5||3-2 (2-3)||-.5||+1600|
|7.||Buffalo Bills||4||4-1 (3-2)||-.5||+2000|
|8.||Los Angeles Rams||3.5||4-1 (3-2)||+1||+1800|
|9.||New Orleans Saints||3.5||3-2 (2-3)||-1||+1200|
|10.||Tennessee Titans||3.5||4-0 (1-3)||+3||+1800|
|11.||New England Patriots||3.5||2-2 (2-2)||—||+2500|
|12.||Cleveland Browns||3||4-1 (3-2)||+.5||+2800|
|13.||Indianapolis Colts||2.5||3-2 (3-2)||-.5||+3000|
|14.||Las Vegas Raiders||1||3-2 (3-2)||+1||+4000|
|15.||Minnesota Vikings||.5||1-4 (3-2)||+1||+8000|
|16.||Los Angeles Chargers||.5||1-4 (4-1)||+1||+12500|
|17.||San Francisco 49ers||.5||2-3 (2-3)||-1||+4000|
|18.||Arizona Cardinals||0||3-2 (3-2)||-.5||+5000|
|19.||Chicago Bears||0||4-1 (3-2)||—||+4000|
|20.||Dallas Cowboys||-.5||2-3 (0-5)||-2||+4000|
|21.||Houston Texans||-.5||1-4 (1-4)||+.5||+10000|
|22.||Carolina Panthers||-.5||3-2 (3-2)||+1||+6600|
|23.||Philadelphia Eagles||-.5||1-3-1 (1-4)||—||+6000|
|24.||Detroit Lions||-1||1-3 (1-3)||—||+15000|
|25.||Miami Dolphins||-1||2-3 (3-2)||+1||+15000|
|26.||Atlanta Falcons||-1.5||0-5 (1-4)||-.5||+25000|
|27.||Cincinnati Bengals||-2||1-3-1 (3-2)||-.5||+25000|
|28.||Denver Broncos||-2.5||1-3 (3-1)||+1||+17500|
|29.||New York Giants||-4||0-5 (3-2)||—||+50000|
|31.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-5||1-4 (2-3)||-1||+35000|
|32.||New York Jets||-8.5||0-5 (0-5)||-1||+75000|
Week 6 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on October 7.
Seahawks (4.5 to 5) — The Seahawks are never out of any game with Russell Wilson in control after the Seahawks turned a 13-point deficit into a eight-point lead in the matter of two minutes against the Vikings in Week 5.
Steelers (4 to 4.5) — The Steelers are undefeated with Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup, but it’s a bit difficult to tell just how good they are in the early going. The four teams they’ve beaten (NYG, Den, Hou, Phi) to get to 4-0 this season have combined for just three wins so far this season.
Rams (2.5 to 3.5) — The Rams completed a sweep of the woeful NFC East by beating the Football Team in Week 5. Aaron Donald wrecked the game by matching his career-high with four sacks of Washington quarterbacks.
Titans (.5 to 3.5) — The Titans plummeted down my ratings last week because of their COVID-19 outbreak and, of course, they put together their first complete performance of the season against the Bills. The Titans had looked a bit fraudulent before Week 5, failing to cover spreads despite their 3-0 start to the season, but they looked legit in Week 5.
Browns (2.5 to 3) — The Browns have been on a steady climb up my power ratings since their embarrassing loss to the Ravens in the season opener. This team has the roster to win now, but they just need to get consistent play out of Baker Mayfield, who played excellent in the first half before struggling mightily in the final 30 minutes.
Raiders (0 to 1) — Of course the team from Las Vegas defied the odds and pulled off the biggest upset of the young 2020 season. The Raiders became the first team to win outright as a double-digit underdog this season with their stunning road victory over the Chiefs. A healthy Henry Ruggs brought a much-needed vertical element to this passing attack, which opened up the entire offense.
Vikings (-.5 to .5) — The VIkings blew a 13-point lead in the second half against the Seahawks last week, but this team has been way more competitive recently than they were in the first three weeks of the season.
Bears (-.5 to 0) — The offense got into a better rhythm in Nick Foles’s second start and, more importantly, Khalil Mack turned up the heat and he looked like the former Defensive Player of the Year.
Chargers (-.5 to .5) — Philip Rivers is gone but the Chargers still can’t close out close games as they’re now 3-13 in one-score games since the start of last season. I’m still moving Los Angeles up in my ratings because Justin Herbert proved again that he’s the real deal.
Panthers (-1.5 to -.5) — The Panthers were expected to be among the league’s cellar dwellers this season but newcomers Robby Anderson, Teddy Bridgewater, and Matt Rhule have had other thoughts. They’ll host the Bears this week in a game that could have NFC playoff implications in a few months.
Texans (-1 to -.5) — The Texans broke into the win column in a decisive victory over the Jaguars in their first game without Bill O’Brien. Houston averaged a healthy 8.4 yards per play and Brandin Cooks broke out for the first time with the Texans with 8/161/1 receiving.
Dolphins (-2 to -1) — The Dolphins just covered the spread by 34 points against the 49ers in Week 5, and they’re back to being ATS darlings with Ryan Fitzpatrick slinging the rock all over the field like they were at the end of last season.
Broncos (-3.5 to -2) — The Broncos are likely to get Drew Lock back in the lineup this week so I’m giving them a nice bump up after they plummeted down my ratings after his Week 2 injury.
Week 6 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on October 7.
Chiefs (8.5 to 8) — Patrick Mahomes had a gorgeous 58-yard bomb to Tyreek Hill wiped out by a holding call on the first drive of the game, which set the tone for a shaky performance from the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense got torched for 7.3 yards per play and 40 points overall against the Raiders.
Buccaneers (5 to 4.5) — Penalties continued to haunt the Buccaneers as they settled for four field goals and they had just one touchdown in their one-point loss to the Bears in Week 5. They also lost run-stuffer Vita Vea, who was on his way to having a career-best campaign.
Saints (4.5 to 3.5) — The Saints overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Chargers in Week 5 but the fact that New Orleans was down 17 points to a rookie quarterback on their home turf speaks volumes to the issues the Saints are having on both sides of the ball right now.
Bills (4.5 to 4) — The Bills looked like the team that had a long layoff from practicing and playing in Week 5. Josh Allen has been phenomenal to start this season, but the accuracy issues that plagued him in his first two seasons crept back in against the Titans.
Colts (3 to 2.5) — I’ve been lower than most on the Colts this season because I thought Rivers was well past his prime and a terrible fit as a game manager for this offense. The calls for Jacoby Brissett have already started after he threw two INTs, including a pick-six, and he took a safety in their loss to the Browns.
49ers (1.5 to .5) — The 49ers benched Jimmy Garoppolo in his first game back from his high-ankle injury to protect him in a lopsided loss to the Dolphins. There’s mounting evidence that the 49ers may not be very good with their only victories coming against the New York squads and their losses coming against mediocre at best teams in Arizona, Philly, and Miami.
Cardinals (.5 to 0) — The Cardinals lost one of the best and most underrated pass rushers in the league with Chandler Jones (bicep) potentially going down for the season, which is a big loss for an improving defense.
Cowboys (1.5 to -.5) — The Cowboys suffered a big loss with Dak Prescott going down for the season with his catastrophic leg injury. Dallas is in better shape than most teams since they have a nine-year starting QB in Andy Dalton ready to take the reins of this offense.
Falcons (-1 to -1.5) — The Falcons cleaned house by firing Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff after their disappointing 0-5 start to the season. It’s not going to get much better as Matt Ryan and this offense has looked completely lost without a healthy Julio Jones on the field.
Bengals (-1.5 to -2) — The Bengals offensive line got manhandled by the Ravens in Week 5 as Joe Burrow got sacked seven times. The Bengals avoided the shutout by kicking a field goal in the final minute, but this run defense could be in major trouble going forward after run-stuffer D.J. Reader landed on the injured reserve with a quad injury.
Football Team (-3.5 to 4) — Alex Smith’s return to the field after his catastrophic leg injury in 2018 was by far the best moment of Week 5. Unfortunately, Smith and Kyle Allen failed to give Washington’s offense some life as they combined for just 111 passing yards while averaging just 3.7 YPA.
Jaguars (-4 to -5) — Recent first-round picks Josh Allen (knee), Myles Jack (ankle), and C.J. Henderson (shoulder) each missed last week’s game and they also placed D.J. Hayden (hamstring) on the IR before their Week 5 game. D.J. Chark also left their game against the Texans early with an ankle injury so Jacksonville is down all kinds of playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Jets (-7.5 to -8.5) — The Jets are not only 0-5 against the spread, but they’re failing to cover spreads by a whopping 10.8 points per game. Adam Gase now has more double-digit losses (8) than he does victories (7) in his one-plus year as the Jets head coach. They also just cut one of the few playmakers they have on offense but it wasn’t like Gase was even using him.