Week 5 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Player Prop Bets

• Deshaun Watson (Hou) under 24.5 completions (-112, DraftKings)

• Baker Mayfield (Cle) under 244.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• D.J. Chark (Jax) over 4.5 receptions (+110, DraftKings)

• CeeDee Lamb (Dal) over 4.5 receptions (+115, DraftKings)

• Joe Burrow (Cin) over 267.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Tee Higgins (Cin) over 42.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Kyler Murray (Ari) under 259.5 passing yards (-118, DraftKings)

• Le’Veon Bell (NYJ) over 2.5 receptions (-110, BetMGM)

• Frank Gore (NYJ) under 34.5 rushing yards (-118, DraftKings)

• Miles Sanders (Phi) over 82.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Henry Ruggs (LV) over 33.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

Early Afternoon Games

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1, 1-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0, 2-1), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Eagles 18.75, Steelers 25.75

• Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 7, 46.5 to 44.5

• Weather: 70 degrees, 20% chance of rain, 5 mph

• Eagles Injuries to Watch: WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring), WR Alshon Jeffery (Lisfranc/illness), RT Lane Johnson (ankle), S Rodney McLeod (hamstring) CB Avonte Maddox (ankle)

• Steelers Injuries to Watch: LB T.J. Watt (knee)

Eagles Trends

• The Eagles have the lowest implied team total of the week at 18.75 points.

• The Eagles have played over the total in five of their last six games.

• Philly is 6-2 in its last eight games as a road underdog.

• Miles Sanders has seen at least a 77% snap share in each of his first three games. He mustered just 13/46 rushing and 2/30 receiving against the league’s toughest defense against the RBs. He’ll now face the league’s second-toughest defense against RBs this week as the Steelers have limited bell-cow backs David Johnson (12.6 FP), Melvin Gordon (16.4), and Saquon Barkley (12.6) so far this season.

• Carson Wentz has gutted out 23.5 FP and 22.4 FP in his last two games thanks to some rushing production — he’s scored rushing TDs in three straight games. The Steelers have yet to allow a 20+ FP performance to a QB this season.

• Zach Ertz averaged just 2.3 YPR last week with 4/9 receiving on five targets with the Eagles using practice squad players at wide receiver. He’s now averaging 34.8 receiving yards per game and 7.3 YPR this season. The Steelers allowed 4/57/1 receiving to Noah Fant in Week 2 but Ertz isn’t in the same zip code as Fant in terms of athleticism right now.

• The Eagles could use DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and Alshon Jeffery (Lisfranc) back this week after using Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, and John Hightower last week. D-Jax is back to practice early this week, which puts him on track to return. The Steelers have allowed the sixth-most FPG to WRs in the early going but Philly WRs are averaging the third-fewest FPG with 25.6.

Steelers Trends

• The Steelers will allow up to 7,500 fans to attend this week’s game.

• The Steelers have a 3-0 record against three teams (NYG, Den, Hou) that are a combined 1-11 this season, with the one win coming against the Jets.

• Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games.

• James Conner has posted consecutive 20+ FP performances after getting benched in the season opener against the Giants. He had his best game yet with stud RG David DeCastro back in the lineup for Week 3 as Conner posted 18/109 rushing and 4/40 receiving on five targets against the Texans. Conner played on 66% of the snaps but it should be noted that the Steelers worked fourth-round pick Anthony McFarland into the mix as a change-of-pace option for the first time this season. The Eagles are allowing 125.6 scrimmage yards per game to RBs with four scores this season.

• Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for multiple TD passes in his first three games back from his elbow surgery. The Eagles are allowing 273.8 passing yards per game with Jared Goff and Joe Burrow each throwing for multiple scores.

• Diontae Johnson took a big hit to the head on a carry in the second quarter in Week 3 against the Texans, and he never returned to the game. Diontae had 6+ catches in each of his first two games, but he’s likely to run into the shadow coverage of Darius Slay this week. Terry McLaurin is the only receiver he’s primarily faced to cross 10+ FP with 5/61 receiving.

• Chase Claypool played ahead of James Washington in Week 3 after seeing a team-high 76% of the snap. The rookie is best suited to take over as the X receiver if Johnson is unable to play in the future.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster has three touchdowns but he’s seeing an 18% target share and he’s averaging just 9.4 YPR — he’s never averaged below 12.8 YPR in a season. JuJu will avoid Slay this week and Tyler Boyd (10/125 receiving) and Cooper Kupp (5/81) have each made hay out of the slot.

• Eric Ebron had his best performance with the Steelers after Johnson left Week 3 early as he posted 5/52/1 receiving on a team-best seven targets against the Texans. Ebron scored on a red-zone fade route from 10 yards away and his aDOT is currently sitting at a juicy 10.4 yards through three games. The Eagles just got crushed by George Kittle (15/183/1 receiving) last week, and they allowed three touchdowns to Tyler Higbee earlier this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Miles Sanders (Phi) over 82.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Carolina Panthers (2-2, 2-2 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (0-4, 1-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Panthers 26, Falcons 28
• Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 2, 54.5 to 54
• Weather: Dome
• Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Reggie Bonnafon (ankle, IR), LT Russell Okung (groin), CB Eli Apple (hamstring)
• Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring), WR Calvin Ridley (knee), S Ricardo Allen (elbow), S Keanu Neal (hamstring), S Damontae Kazee (Achilles, IR), S Jaylinn Hawkins (concussion), DT Grady Jarrett (hip), DE Takk McKinley (groin)

Panthers Trends

• The Panthers are coming off two outright upsets the last two weeks.
• Carolina is 7-3 toward overs in its last 10 games.
• Mike Davis has posted consecutive games with 22+ FP since taking over as the starter after posting 16/84/1 rushing and 5/27 receiving on six targets against the Cardinals in Week 4. He actually has 15+ FP in three straight games after taking over for Christian McCaffrey in the fourth quarter in Week 2. The Falcons have allowed the second-most receptions to RBs so far with 34. The Panthers also placed Reggie Bonnafon on the IR with an ankle injury this week so Davis’ role should stay large with just Trenton Cannon behind him.
• Teddy Bridgewater is completing 73.0% of his passes and he’s averaging 8.1 YPA, but he’s thrown a TD pass on just 2.8% of his passes, which ranks 27th out of 33 QBs. He threw for multiple TDs for the first time last and he added a rushing TD to finish as the QB3 for the week. Bridgewater is now averaging 17.5 rushing yards per game while attempting 35.5 passes per game. He now gets the best fantasy matchup for opposing QBs against a decimated Falcons defense that’s allowed four passing TDs in three of their first four games.
• Robby Anderson has been the #1 WR for Teddy in the early going as he now has 5+ catches in every game this season with 99+ receiving yards in three of his four contests. He turned a game-high 11 targets (29.7% share) into 8/99 receiving against the Cardinals in Week 4. Anderson is being used as a run-after-the-catch receiver with his aDOT sitting at 9.1 yards, which is more than three yards fewer than D.J. Moore’s aDOT of 12.7 yards. The Falcons didn’t face a #1 perimeter WR last week but they had given up 90+ yards to A-Rob/Amari/Metcalf before that.
• Moore has topped 10+ FP just once this season in his new role after doing it in 12-of-14 healthy games last season. He’s seen just a 13% target share in the last two weeks.
• Ian Thomas has just 30 receiving yards through four weeks, but he scored his first touchdown of the season last week. He also saw five targets against the Cardinals, which was more than the four targets he saw in the first three weeks of the season. He ranks in the top-15 in routes run for the position with 109, and he’ll now run into a Falcons defense that’s been decimated in the middle of the field. Thomas will look to become the fifth straight tight end to hit double-digit FP against the Falcons this season.

Falcons Trends

• Atlanta is expected to allow limited spectators this week.
• The Falcons have a five-game ATS and outright winning streak against the Panthers.
• Atlanta is 5-1 toward over in its last six games.
• Matt Ryan is on pace to throw for 600+ passes for the third straight season. He’s scored 12 FP in each of his last two games with Julio Jones in and out of the lineup with a hamstring injury. Kyler Murray was the first QB to throw for multiple scores against the Panthers this season, but he threw for just 133 yards on 31 attempts.
• Calvin Ridley has 60+ yards and a TD in each of his four games against the Panthers. He played on just 64% of the snaps last week and he failed to catch any of his five targets while playing through an ankle injury. DeAndre Hopkins posted 7/41 receiving on nine targets last week against the Panthers.
• Olamide Zaccheaus will slide into Julio’s spot this week if he’s unable to play. He posted a team-best 8/86 receiving with Julio out of the lineup against the Packers while slot WR Russell Gage managed just 2/22 receiving. Slot WR Keenan Allen posted 13/132/1 receiving on 19 targets against the Panthers but Gage isn’t in the same class as Keenan.
• Hayden Hurst has reached double-digit FP just once in four games and he’s averaging only 5.5 targets per game. The Panthers have yet to allow an opposing TE to hit 11+ FP on 6.5 targets per game.
• Todd Gurley is averaging 3.9 YPC and he has just 4/9 receiving through four games, but his four touchdowns have salvaged his production. The Panthers had allowed at least a rushing touchdown in 16 straight games dating back to Week 4 last season until a struggling Kenyan Drake came to town and failed to score last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Carolina Panthers +3/+136 ML (Best Bet)

Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1, 3-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1, 2-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Bengals 19.25, Ravens 31.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 13.5 to 12.5, 52 to 51
• Weather: 70 degrees, 30% chance of rain, 5 mph
• Bengals Injuries to Watch: RB Joe Mixon (shin), CB Mackensie Alexander (hamstring), DT Geno Atkins (shoulder), LT Jonah Williams (shoulder)
• Ravens Injuries to Watch: QB Lamar Jackson (knee), TE Mark Andrews (thigh), LT Ronnie Stanley (shoulder/hip), CB Marcus Peters (thigh), S Jimmy Smith (knee), TE Nick Boyle (thigh)

Bengals Trends

• The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Ravens and those meetings are 4-1 toward overs.
• Cincinnati’s ATS record is technically 3-1 but sharp bettors had Cincinnati at +3.5 against the Chargers in the season opener long before it closed at +2.5.
• Joe Mixon finally broke out with 181 scrimmage yards and three TDs last week. He saw a 17% target share last week and he ran 25 routes to Gio Bernard’s five routes last week while seeing a season-high 83% snap share. He’s in a much tougher spot this week against the Ravens but Antonio Gibson went for 128/1 scrimmage last week. Mixon posted 151 scrimmage yards in his final meeting with the Ravens last season and just 39 scrimmage yards in his first meeting.
• Joe Burrow picked up his first career victory last week, and he became the first rookie quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards in three straight games. Outside of Patrick Mahomes’ explosion in Week 3, the Ravens have held every other QB under 19 FP. Burrow has scored 16+ FP in each of his first four starts.
• Tee Higgins has posted 9/117/2 receiving with a 20% target share the last two weeks while A.J. Green has posted only 6/39 receiving with an 11% share in that same span.
• Tyler Boyd has also become the #1 WR after Green saw a 23% share in the first two weeks of the season. Boyd has seen 8+ targets and 70+ yards in three straight games. Marlon Humphrey has allowed 19/135 receiving in 114 coverage snaps from the slot this season (1.18 yards/snap). Boyd had just 9/72 receiving in this matchup last year with Ryan Finley and Andy Dalton at QB.

Ravens Trends

• The Ravens are 3-1 towards unders this season.
• Baltimore is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games, and they’ve won 13 of those 14 games.
• After averaging 3.5 YPA against the Chiefs in Week 4, Lamar Jackson got back on track with two passing TDs and a rushing TD while averaging 9.2 YPA. Lamar scored 30+ FP in both of his matchups with the Bengals last season.
• It’s notable that the Ravens pulled Lamar early last week for Robert Griffin III when they had a big lead. Lamar ran for a 50-yard touchdown last week, but he had just three rushing yards with his other six carries. He’s also uncharacteristically missed a couple deep throws the last couple weeks so maybe there is something bigger going on with Lamar and his knee.
• Marquise Brown has seen a 27% target share and a 43% air yards share so far this season. He came just short of a touchdown last week, but he does have 6+ targets in every game and 4+ catches in three of his four contests. Hollywood caught all four of his targets for 4/80/1 receiving in this matchup last season.
• Mark Andrews has two games with two TDs and 20+ FP and he has two games without a touchdown and fewer than six FP. He posted 12/152/2 receiving against the Bengals last season. Zach Ertz and Hunter Henry each reached 5+ catches and 70+ yards against Cincy this season.
• The Ravens backfield went from being a fantasy goldmine in 2019 to a fantasy minefield in 2020. Gus Edwards led this backfield with a 39% snap share and 9/38 rushing while J.K. Dobbins played 37% of the snaps with 5/16 rushing. Mark Ingram had the most fantasy production with 8/34/1 rushing while catching his only targets for three, but he played on a backfield low 25% of the snaps. Dobbins hasn’t reached double-digit FP since he scored twice in the season opener while Edwards has yet to find the end zone. Ingram has touchdowns in two of his last three games. The Bengals have limited James Robinson and Miles Sanders each to 14.7 FPG the last two weeks after allowing 50+ FP to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Week 2.

Brolley’s Bets

Cincinnati Bengals +12.5 (Best Bet)

Joe Burrow (Cin) over 267.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Tee Higgins (Cin) over 42.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at Houston Texans (0-4, 0-4), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Jaguars 24.25, Texans 30.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 5.5, 54 to 54.5
• Weather: Dome
• Jaguars Injuries to Watch: WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring), DE Josh Allen (knee), LB Myles Jack (ankle), CB C.J. Henderson (shoulder), CB D.J. Hayden (hamstring, IR), LT Cam Robinson (knee)
• Texans Injuries to Watch: TE Jordan Akins (concussion), LT Laremy Tunsil (shoulder)

Jaguars Trends

• The Jaguars are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games.
• Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games
• Gardner Minshew has topped 20+ FP in three of his first four starts and he’s averaging 42.3 pass attempts per game in losses the last three weeks — they enter Week 5 as 6.5-point underdogs against the Texans. Houston has been more of a run-funnel defense in the early going, but the Jaguars just faced another run-funnel defense in the Bengals last week and Minshew threw for 351 yards and two TDs.
• James Robinson saw a season-high 76% of the snaps last week, and he’s topped 105+ scrimmage yards in three straight games. The Texans have allowed 15+ FP to an individual back in every game including 24+ FP to Dalvin Cook (146/2 scrimmage) and James Conner (149/1) in the last two weeks.
• D.J. Chark returned from his chest injury last week and posted 8/95/2 receiving on nine targets, which was better than his production in the first two games combined (7/109/1). He has 12+ FP in each of his three games this season, and he managed 11/87/1 receiving in two games against the Texans last season.
• Laviska Shenault had his first game with 40+ receiving yards last week as he posted 5/86 receiving on six targets against the Bengals. He has just two carries for six carries the last two weeks after posting 7/47 rushing in the first two games. The Texans allowed both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to go for 100+ yards last week after allowing just one WR to top 50+ receiving yards in the first three weeks.

Texans Trends

• The Texans will allow up to 13,3000 fans to attend this week.
• The Texans are 4-0 overall and 3-1 ATS against the Jags with Deshaun Watson at QB.
• These teams have played under the total in four straight meetings in this series.
• The Texans are 0-4 ATS and all four games have gone over the total.
• Will Fuller posted 6/108/1 receiving on a 21% target share and he just missed a second touchdown. He’s now posted 15+ FP in his three healthy games. The Jags could be down both C.J. Henderson (shoulder) and D.J. Hayden (hamstring) this week. Tee Higgins had the best performance on the perimeter against the Jaguars last week, scoring just 13 FP.
• Brandin Cooks didn’t catch a single pass on three targets despite running a route on 39 of Watson’s 40 dropbacks last week. He’s still seeing a 17% target share even with his goose egg last week. He’s now topped 50+ receiving yards just twice in his last 14 games.
• Randall Cobb has been more consistent than Cooks as he’s averaging 3.3 catches and 53.3 yards per game with one touchdown so far. He could be a slightly bigger factor with TE Jordan Akins (concussion) likely to miss this week.
• David Johnson played just 55% of the snaps last week with Duke Johnson back and the Texans playing from behind last week. David hasn’t topped 4.0 YPC and he has two catches in each of his last three games. This week’s game script could work more in his favor with the Texans entering as six-point home favorites, and Joe Mixon just went for 181/3 scrimmage against the Jaguars.

Brolley’s Bets

Houston Texans -6 (Staff Pick Lean)

Deshaun Watson (Hou) under 24.5 completions (Best Bet)

D.J. Chark (Jax) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Las Vegas Raiders (2-2, 2-2 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, 3-1), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Raiders 21.75, Chiefs 33.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 13 to 12, 55.5 to 55
• Weather: 75 degrees, clear, 10 mph
• Raiders Injuries to Watch: WR Henry Ruggs (hamstring), LT Trent Brown (calf), TE Darren Waller (knee), CB Nevin Lawson (ankle), LB Nick Kwiatkoski (pec), S Lamarcus Joyner (ribs), WR Bryan Edwards (ankle)
• Chiefs Injuries to Watch: None of note.

Raiders Trends

• The Raiders, the Bills, and the Saints are 4-0 toward overs.
• Josh Jacobs has seen 4+ targets three times this season after doing it just once last season. He’s failed to reach 14+ FP the last three weeks after scoring nearly 36 FP in Week 1 on the strength of three TDs. The Chiefs are allowing 122.3 rushing yards per game, including a 100-yard performance from Damien Harris last week.
• Derek Carr has thrown for multiple TDs in each of the last three weeks and he topped 300+ yards for the first time last week against the Bills. The Chiefs have yet to allow multiple TD passes in a game, but their offense should push this Raiders offense to throw it more as 12-point road underdogs.
• The Raiders could get Henry Ruggs back this week off of his hamstring injury, and they could desperately use a lid-lifter right now. Hunter Renfrow posted 11/141/1 receiving on 17 targets the last two weeks with the rookies out of the lineup.
• Bill Belichick and the Patriots did their best to take Darren Waller away in Week 3, limiting him 2/9 receiving on four targets. He predictably bounced back with a 17.8-point fantasy performance in Week 4. He easily led the Raiders with a 27.2% target share as he finished with 9/88 receiving on 12 targets against the Bills. He posted 6+ catches and 60+ yards in each of his matchups against Kansas City last year.

Chiefs Trends

• The Chiefs will allow about 16,000 fans to attend this week’s game.
• Kansas City has the highest implied team total of the week at 33.25 points.
• Kansas City owns an incredible 28-3 record against its AFC West counterparts over the last five-plus years, which is the best five-year stretch for any team against their division opponents since the NFL realigned divisions in 2002.
• The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in this series. Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 straight up against the Raiders with a 22-point margin of victory in those contests.
• The Chiefs are 3-1 ATS to start the season but they’re surprisingly 3-1 toward unders.
• Kansas City is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine home games.
• Mahomes has thrown for multiple TDs in every game this season, but he now has a pair of 20 FP performances, which is a little underwhelming for his expectations. Josh Allen was the first QB to go for 20+ FP against the Raiders this season with 288/2 passing with a rushing TD.
• Travis Kelce is once again leading all TEs with 65.7 FP. The Raiders have allowed just 6.35 FPG to TEs so far, but the only fantasy viable TE they’ve faced has been Jared Cook, who scored a TD. Kelce posted 90+ yards and 5+ catches in both of his games against the Raiders last week.
• Tyreek Hill has scored a touchdown in every game to start the year, and he’s right back to averaging about five catches and 70 yards per game like he did last season. Stefon Diggs posted 6/115 receiving in this matchup last week. Hill disappointed with 5/55 receiving on eight targets in his only game in this matchup last season.
• Sammy Watkins has 4+ catches and 7+ targets in three of four games this season. He failed to catch a pass on three targets against the Raiders in Week 13 last season.
• Mecole Hardman jumped ahead of Demarcus Robinson in snap share last week (46% to 41%), and he has 8/108/2 receiving on 10 targets the last two weeks.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire has played on 68% of the snaps and he’s run the third-most routes of all RBs this season. He’s been a slight disappointment after posting 138/1 rushing against the Texans in the season opener, but he’s run into some tough run Ds (LAC/Bal/NE). He gets a great bounce-back spot this week against a Raiders defense that’s giving up the most FPG to RBs (38.05). Five different RBs have reached 16+ FP against them and three RBs (CMC/Kamara/Burkhead) have reached 28+ FP.

Brolley’s Bets

Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Henry Ruggs (LV) over 33.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Arizona Cardinals (2-2, 2-2 ATS) at New York Jets (0-4, 0-4), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Cardinals 27, Jets 20
• Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 7, 47.5 to 47
• Weather: 70 degrees, overcast, 5-10 mph
• Cardinals Injuries to Watch: CB Dre Kirkpatrick (calf), S Chris Banjo (hamstring), DE Jordan Phillips (illness), OLB Devon Kennard (calf)
• Jets Injuries to Watch: QB Sam Darnold (shoulder, out), LT Mekhi Becton (shoulder), WR Breshad Perriman (ankle), OLB Jordan Jenkins (shoulder), S Ashtyn Davis (groin), WR Chris Hogan (ribs)

Cardinals Trends

• The Cardinals are the only team to play under the total in all four games.
• Arizona has dropped consecutive games straight up as a favorite.
• Arizona is 7-3-2 ATS in its last 12 games.
• The Cardinals traveled back to Arizona between their East Coast games after playing in Charlotte last week.
• Kenyan Drake managed just 13/35 rushing without a single target in Week 4 in a prime spot against the Panthers. Backup and potential soon-to-be starter Chase Edmonds ran 15 routes, which he turned into 5/24/1 receiving on six targets. Drake’s FP has fallen each week this season (14.5>11.5>8.9>3.5) and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since the season opener. Drake has seen just a 3.5% target share with just five targets so far while Edmonds has seen 17 targets. Drake has disappointed in great matchups recently and he gets another good one against the Jets, who just allowed 118/2 scrimmage to Melvin Gordon last week.
• Kyler Murray averaged a pathetic 4.3 YPA as he completed 24/31 passes for 133 yards against the Panthers, but he salvaged his fantasy production with three touchdown passes and 78 rushing yards. Our Greg Cosell hasn’t exactly loved Murray’s tape as a passer dating back to his rookie season, but Kyler has survived for fantasy because of his legs. He’s become their running game every week with Drake going into the tank after his second-half surge in 2019. Josh Allen posted 57/1 rushing against the Jets in Week 1 and New York has allowed multiple passing TDs in three of four weeks.
• DeAndre Hopkins managed just 7/41 receiving on nine targets against the Panthers last week, which was his first game with fewer than 20 FP. Hopkins should do whatever he wants after Tim Patrick posted 6/113/1 receiving on seven targets against the Jets last week.
• Christian Kirk returned to the lineup and scored against the Panthers, but he’s topped out at five targets in a game this season. It was just the second game that Kirk has scored in his last 18 contests — he had a three-TD game last season.

Jets Trends

• The Jets won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• Not only are the Jets 0-4 ATS, but they’re failing to cover by 10.2 points per game, which is the most in the league.
• The Jets played over the total for the first time in six games last week.
• New York is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 home games.
• The Jets took six personal-foul penalties last week to aid the Broncos two-score victory.
• The Jets are an absolute dumpster fire but, to be fair to Sam Darnold, he has been playing with the deck completely stacked against him. The Jets are set to potentially get Le’Veon Bell (hamstring) back this week, but Darnold is dealing with his own injury to his left shoulder, which he sustained and played through last week.
• Joe Flacco will start this week after filling in for a series for Darnold last week. He went 2-6 as a starter for the Broncos last season, averaging 6.9 YPA with six TD and five INTs.
• After missing Week 2-3 with a hamstring injury, Jamison Crowder returned to the lineup to hang 7/104 receiving on 10 targets in an embarrassing loss to the Broncos. Crowder’s connection with Sam Darnold is as strong as ever as he now has seven catches and 100+ yards in each of his first two games this season. Crowder is averaging 11.5 targets per game so far. We’ll see if he can maintain that usage with Flacco but it does look like Jeff Smith could be their top perimeter option again with Breshad Perriman (ankle) and Denzel Mims (hamstring) still out of the lineup.
• HC Adam Gase clearly has it out for Bell while also having a man-crush on the ancient Frank Gore so Bell will likely have to split up early-down work when he returns this week. Luckily, the Jets are going to be playing in negative game scripts just about every week the rest of the season so he has a chance to average 4-5 catches per game as he did in 2019 in his first season with the Jets. Mike Davis posted 111/1 scrimmage against the Cardinals last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (Best Bet)

Kyler Murray (Ari) under 259.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Le’Veon Bell (NYJ) over 2.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Frank Gore (NYJ) under 34.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Los Angeles Rams (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Washington Football Team (1-3, 2-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Rams 27, Football Team 19.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 9 to 7.5, 45 to 46.5
• Weather: 70 degrees, 50% chance of rain, 5 mph
• Rams Injuries to Watch: LB Micah Kiser (groin), LB Kenny Young (knee), CB Troy Hill (ankle)
• Washington Injuries to Watch: WR Terry McLaurin (thigh), DE Chase Young (groin), WR Steven Sims (toe), WR Dontrelle Inman (foot), RG Wes Schweitzer (elbow)

Rams Trends

• The Rams have played over the total in four straight road games
• Los Angeles is 5-2 toward overs in its last seven games.
• Jared Goff headed into last week with a league-best 9.6 YPA, but he managed just a 6.3 YPA average against the Giants as he threw for 200 yards and one touchdown. Washington has allowed multiple passing TDs in three of its first four games, but Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson combined for 349 passing yards the last two weeks. Goff had been pressured on 27.3% of his dropbacks through the first three weeks before the Giants pressured him 35.3% of the time last week. The Football Team would love to get Chase Young (groin) back this week.
• Cooper Kupp is averaging 7.0 targets per game while Robert Woods is seeing 6.5 targets per game. Kupp has 19/257/2 receiving over the last three weeks while Woods has 13/123/1 receiving in that same span. The Football Team is allowing the second-fewest FPG to WRs (28.03) and DeAndre Hopkins is the only WR who has topped 13+ FP against Washington.
• Tyler Higbee scored 28.4 FP against the Eagles in Week 2 on the strength of three TDs. He has a combined 20.1 FP in his other three games on 8/101 receiving with a two-point conversion. The Football Team has allowed five TDs to TEs this season, including two to Mark Andrews last week.
• Malcolm Brown got the hot hand in this backfield last week as Sean McVay gave him 15 opportunities while Darrell Henderson saw nine. It looks like Cam Akers will throw his hat back in the ring this week in this backfield. Baltimore’s three-headed rushing attack combined 33/118/1 rushing (3.6 YPC) against the Football Team last week.

Washington Trends

• The Football Team won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• Washington has the second-lowest implied team total of the week at 19.5 points.
• Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
• The Football Team is 4-0 toward overs in their last four home games, and they’re 6-1 toward overs in their last seven games.
• The Football Team has lost three straight games by two touchdowns after surprising the Eagles in the season opener. Dwayne Haskins needed major garbage-time production last week to average 7.0 YPA or better and to complete 60% of his passes or better for the first time this season. Ron Rivera will turn to his old Panthers QB Kyle Allen to try to give this offense a spark. The Rams allowed four TD passes to Josh Allen in Week 3 but they’ve allowed just one passing TD in their other three games.
• Terry McLaurin gave us a scare last week when he showed up on the team’s injury report because of a late-week thigh injury, which forced him to miss the final practice of the week. McLaurin alleviated his owners’ fears by posting a career-best 10 catches for 118 yards against the Ravens in Week 4, which was his second 100-yard game of the season. He’s now seen a 20% target share in every game. He’ll draw the attention of Jalen Ramsey and company this week. Stefon Diggs (4/49/1 receiving) and Amari Cooper (10/81) each survived this matchup but they had much better QB play.
• Antonio Gibson is improving every week and it’s reflected in his rising fantasy production in the first four weeks of the season (6.4<12.2<14.0<22.8). He had his best game to date against a stout Ravens defense as he finished with 13/46/1 rushing and 4/82 receiving on five targets.
• J.D. McKissic still saw a higher snap share (55% to 44%), but OC Scott Turner is putting more on Gibson’s plate as a receiver in recent weeks with eight targets the last two weeks — he saw just four targets in the first two games. He also saw three of the four goal-line carries with a touchdown in Week 4 after seeing just 5-of-13 goal-line carries (38%) in the first three weeks of the season. Gibson has run off touchdowns in three straight games. The Rams are allowing 150.8 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs so far.

Brolley’s Bets

Washington Football Team +7.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Late Afternoon Games

Miami Dolphins (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2, 2-2), 4:05 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 21.25, 49ers 30.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 8.5 to 9, 49.5 to 51.5
• Weather: 70 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
• Dolphins Injuries to Watch: WR DeVante Parker (ankle), CB Byron Jones (groin), LT Austin Jackson (foot), DE Shaw Lawson (shoulder), TE Durham Smythe (knee)
• 49ers Injuries to Watch: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), RB Raheem Mostert (knee), CB Richard Sherman (calf, out), DE Ziggy Ansah (biceps), LB Dre Greenlaw (quad), CB Emmanuel Moseley (concussion), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring), CB K’Waun Williams (knee), WR Deebo Samuel (illness)

Dolphins Trends

• The Chargers just named Justin Herbert the full-time starter for the Chargers this week, and we’re to the point in the season when Brian Flores is announcing his starter in the middle of the week. It won’t be long until Tua Tagovailoa is starting games and it’s not out of the question that he makes an appearance in-game this week. Fitz has been excellent for fantasy once again, posting 23+ FP in his last three games. The 49ers have given up two rushing TDs to QBs and 37+ rushing yards in three of their four games while Fitz has 85/2 rushing the last two weeks.
• DeVante Parker suffered an ankle injury early last week, but he gutted through the injury to post 10/112 receiving on 12 targets (27% share). The 49ers are allowing ninth-fewest FPG to the position (31.58) but they’ve only been tested by one true #1 WR in DeAndre Hopkins, who posted 14/151 receiving on 16 targets.
• Mike Gesicki has a pair of games with just a 15-yard catch and three targets for the last two weeks. He’s topped 10+ FP just once this season, and the 49ers are allowing just 6.63 FPG to TEs so far this season. Zach Ertz had just 4/9 receiving last week.
• Myles Gaskin continues to be a steady PPR option with 40+ rushing yards, 22+ receiving yards, and 3+ catches in every game. He’s yet to score a touchdown with Jordan Howard vulturing goal-line looks. No back has reached 15+ FP against the 49ers this season, and they’re allowing a league-low 14.03 FPG.

49ers Trends

• The 49ers won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• Jimmy Garoppolo is trending toward playing for the first time since injuring his ankle in Week 2. He picked a soft spot to return against a Dolphins defense that’s allowing the fourth-most FPG to QBs (23.3), including 301.3 passing yards per game.
• George Kittle appears to be just fine coming off his knee injury in Week 2. He torched the Eagles by catching all 15 of his targets for 183 yards and a touchdown last week. The Dolphins have faced little competition at tight end this season with their toughest matchup coming against Greg Olsen last week, who posted 5/35 receiving.
• San Francisco WRs are averaging a league-worst 22.4 FPG with just 13.2 targets per game, but they’re at least getting back to full strength. Deebo Samuel saw 25 snaps and ran 17 routes in his debut last week, which will surely go up this week after the team cut Mohamed Sanu this week after Samuel survived his first game back. Brandon Aiyuk led the 49ers WRs by playing 64 snaps and running 50 routes last week. The Dolphins are giving up the seventh-most FPG to WRs (41.18)
• Jerick McKinnon saw a 92% snap share and he handled 84% of the RB touches in a competitive game last week. It looks like he’ll be back in a timeshare this week with Raheem Mostert (knee) trending toward returning to the lineup. McKinnon has scored in every game this season while Mostert has 18+ FP and TDs in each of his two games this season. The Dolphins have allowed 100+ scrimmage yards and two TDs to James Robinson and Chis Carson in consecutive weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins +9.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Indianapolis Colts (3-1, 3-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (3-1, 2-2), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Colts 24, Browns 22.5
• Spread/Total Movements: PK to 3 to 1.5, 47.5 to 46.5
• Weather: 65 degrees, overcast, 10 mph
• Colts Injuries to Watch: LB Darius Leonard (groin), LB Bobby Okereke (thumb), LB Anthony Walker (ankle), LT Anthony Castonzo (ribs),
• Browns Injuries to Watch: RB Kareem Hunt (groin), WR Odell Beckham (toe), DT Larry Ogunjobi (abdomen), DT Sheldon Richardson (thigh), C JC Tretter (knee), CB Greedy Williams (shoulder), S Karl Joseph (hamstring), DE Adrian Clayborn (hip)

Colts Trends

• The Colts are 5-2 towards unders in their last seven games.
• Indy is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
• Jonathan Taylor has been trending in the wrong direction with Jordan Wilkins playing a bigger factor than anticipated. The rookie has played on 51% of the snaps the last three weeks since Marlon Mack (Achilles) went down for the season. He’s also posted just 4/23 receiving the last three weeks after hanging 6/67 in the season opener. The Browns are allowing just 67.0 rushing yards per game, and Ezekiel Elliott became the first back to top 15+ FP against them this season.
• Philip Rivers hasn’t reached 17+ FP in a game this season as he’s thrown just one TD in every game. The Browns have allowed multiple TD passes in every game and 25+ FP against starting QBs in Week 5 — they allowed just 13.2 FP to Dwayne Haskins in Week 3.
• Indy WRs are averaging the second-fewest FPG with 24.7 and their #1 WR T.Y. Hilton is averaging just 7.3 FPG. Hilton has yet to reach 10+ FP in a game this season. He’s yet to reach 60+ receiving yards in a game this season while the Browns have allowed 60+ yards to six different WRs in four weeks.
• Zach Pascal has out-targeted Hilton in each of the last two weeks since being elevated to the #2 WR spot, but he’s produced just 5/92 receiving on 12 targets.
• The Colts are rolling with a three-headed TE approach after Trey Burton led the group with 19 routes in his first game back, ahead of Jack Doyle (15) and Mo Alie-Cox (8). The Browns have allowed double-digit FP to four different TEs this season, and they’re allowing the fourth-most FPG to the position (19.88) this season.

Browns Trends

• The Browns are allowed to have up to 12,000 fans in attendance this week.
• The Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games.
• Cleveland is 4-1 towards overs in its last five games.
• The Browns are averaging a league-best 39.3 points per game the last three weeks while the Colts are holding opponents to a league-low 14 points per game.
• Kareem Hunt is going to be the man in this backfield with Nick Chubb landing on the IR with his knee injury. Hunt is dealing with his own groin injury, but he still registered his fifth touchdown in the last three weeks against the Cowboys last week. D’Ernest Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard will also mix in behind him. The Colts are allowing just 16.58 FPG to RBs (3rd-fewest) with Dalvin Cook being the only back to find the end zone and to score more than 11+ FP.
• Baker Mayfield has thrown for multiple TDs in each of the last two weeks, but he’s yet to reach 220 passing yards in a game. He managed just 15.2 FPG last week despite the Browns scoring 49 points against the Cowboys. The Colts have allowed just 24.1 FPG the last three weeks combined to Cousins/Darnold/Foles.
• Odell Beckham accounted for three TDs to finish as the WR1 last week, and he’s averaging 7.5 targets per game (26% target share). Allen Robinson needed garbage-time production, but he posted 7/101/1 receiving against the Colts last week.
• Jarvis Landry is seeing just 4.8 targets per game (16% target share) in the early going and the only TD he has accounted for came on a pass to OBJ. He hasn’t reached 10+ FP in receiving production since he had 5/61 receiving in Week 1. Anthony Miller had just 3/16 receiving out of the slot against the Colts last week.
• Austin Hooper has now seen more than an 18% target share in each of Cleveland’s last three games. However, David Njoku will be re-joining the lineup this week to give the Browns a three-man crew at TE with Harrison Bryant also involved.

Brolley’s Bets

Cleveland Browns +2.5/+105 ML (Best Bet)

Baker Mayfield (Cle) under 244.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

New York Giants (0-4, 2-2 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (1-3, 0-4), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Giants 22.25, Cowboys 31.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 9 to 9.5
• Weather: Dome
• Giants Injuries to Watch: S Jabrill Peppers (ankle), LB Kyler Fackrell (neck), LB Oshane Ximines (shoulder)
• Cowboys Injuries to Watch: LT Tyron Smith (neck), TE Dalton Schultz (thigh), C Joe Looney (knee, out), DE Tyrone Crawford (ankle)

Giants Trends

• The Giants are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.
• The Cowboys got torched for 49 points by the Browns in Week 4, and they’re now allowing a league-worst 36.5 points per game.
• Jason Garrett needs to get this offense going against his old team. The Giants have scored just three touchdowns so far this season.
• Daniel Jones hasn’t accounted for a touchdown pass in three weeks and he has seven turnovers compared to just two total touchdowns this season. The Giants have faced an absolute gauntlet of games to this point (Pit, @Chi, SF, @LAR) and they’ll finally catch a scheduling break against an awful Cowboys defense that’s allowing the third-most FPG to QBs (25.61). Baker Mayfield (165/2 passing) and Jared Goff (275/0) failed to put up huge numbers against the Cowboys because their rushing attacks dominated Dallas. Jones should do the heavy lifting against the Cowboys since the Giants have one of the worst rushing attacks.
• The Giants entered last week with the worst rushing offense in the NFL, but they mustered 25/136 rushing against the Rams. However, Jones accounted for 45 of those rushing yards. The Browns ran for 307 yards against the Cowboys despite losing Nick Chubb in the first quarter. Devonta Freeman has already emerged as the top option in this backfield after playing 55% of the snaps in his second game. He posted 11/33 rushing and 4/35 receiving against the Rams last week.
• Evan Engram is leading the team with a 20% target share, and he’s third in tight end targets (30) through the first four weeks. He’s turned his 30 looks into just 17/131 receiving with his aDOT sitting at ugly 4.5 yards. He gets a good spot to break out against the Cowboys this week, who have allowed 11+ FP to three straight TEs (Hooper/Olsen/Hurst).
• Darius Slayton has seen exactly seven targets in his first two games without Sterling Shepard (foot, IR), but he’s managed just 3/53 and 3/48 receiving the last two weeks. Slayton is the team’s deep threat with an aDOT of 12.3 yards and this could be a week to get right. Slayton has exploded for two TDs in four of his 18 career games while the Cowboys have allowed multiple TDs to a WR in three straight games.
• Golden Tate has yet to reach 50+ receiving yards or 10+ FP in his first three games. Primary slot WRs Golden Tate, Tyler Lockett, and Russell Gage have each registered 15+ FP against the Cowboys the last three weeks.

Cowboys Trends

• The Cowboys are expected to allow about 21,000 fans in attendance this week.
• The Cowboys, the Texans, and the Jets are each 0-4 ATS.
• The Cowboys have covered six straight games in this series. The coach who led those teams, Jason Garrett, is now calling plays for the other side this week.
• Dallas is 4-1 toward overs in its last five games.
• The Cowboys are averaging 77 plays per game, which is 12 plays higher than the league average of 65.
• The Cowboys rank third in points per game (31.5) and first in yards per game (509.5).
• Ezekiel Elliott is averaging 25 opportunities per game and he’s posted 8+ FP in the receiving department in every game. He’s run for just 88 yards the last two weeks in negative game scripts but the Cowboys project to have a positive game script this week as 10-point home favorites. The Giants are allowing a respectable 3.7 YPC but RBs are averaging 53.8 receiving yards per game against them.
• Dak Prescott has thrown for 1690 yards so far, which is the most yards in any four-game span. He’s averaging more than 50 passes per game through the first four weeks. The Giants have allowed fewer than 18 FP to QBs in each of their last three games while Dak has posted 3+ passing TDs against New York in three straight games.
• Since joining the Cowboys, Amari Cooper is averaging 95.5 receiving yards per game in 10 contests against NFC East foes. Coop is averaging a silly 12.8 targets per game for 9.3/100.3 receiving per game with a touchdown. He’ll draw a lot of James Bradberry this week and the Giants have limited top perimeter WRs to under 12 FP in the first four weeks (Woods/A-Rob/Diontae).
• Michael Gallup will also look to get going on the perimeter, but he’s yet to see more than a 16% target share in any game this season. He’s posted more than 8 FP just once this season.
• CeeDee Lamb gets the best matchup out of the slot this week. They’ve faced two formidable slot WRs this season and both Cooper Kupp (5/69/1) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (6/69/2) each went for 17+ FP. Lamb has posted 5+ catches and 55+ yards in each of his first four games for 10+ FP.
• Dalton Schultz has 4+ receptions in three straight games since Blake Jarwin (ACL, IR) went down for the season, which includes two games with 70+ yards and a touchdown. Dallas’ terrible defense is propelling their weekly offensive explosions. I’m slightly worried the Giants offense won’t push this offense in Week 5 since they have just three offensive TDs, but Schultz and the rest of this offense is too hot to fade right now.

Brolley’s Bets

Dallas Cowboys -9 (Best Bet)

CeeDee Lamb (Dal) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0, 4-0), 8:20 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Vikings 25.25, Seahawks 32.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 7, 56.5 to 57.5
• Weather: 55 degrees, 70% chance of rain, 10 mph
• Vikings Injuries to Watch: LB Eric Kendricks (foot), CB Holton Hill (foot)
• Seahawks Injuries to Watch: RB Chris Carson (knee), RB Carlos Hyde (shoulder), S Jamal Adams (groin), LT Duane Brown (knee), S Lano Hill (back), CB Quinton Dunbar (knee), LB Jordyn Brooks (knee), CB Shaq Griffin (shoulder), LG Mike Iupati (knee), LB Bobby Wagner (ribs)

Vikings Trends

• The Vikings are 5-2 toward overs in their last seven road games.
• The Vikings have posted 30+ points in three of their first four games and they have a great chance to make it four out of five games with a matchup looming against the Seahawks
• Dalvin Cook is rolling once again with 22+ carries and 130+ rushing yards in each of the last two weeks, and he’s scored TDs in every game. Cook is averaging just 10.0 receiving yards per game after averaging 37.1 receiving yards per game last season. The Seahawks have faced a league-low 15.3 rushing attempts per game and they’ve allowed just 2.9 YPC, but they’ve allowed 6.8 catches per game to RBs.
• Kirk Cousins is averaging just 25 passes per game, but he’s averaging a healthy 8.8 YPA with Justin Jefferson breaking out the last two weeks. Cousins is currently leading the league in deep-ball rate at 25%, and he’s going to take his chances downfield to Jefferson and Thielen against a defense that’s allowing the most passing yards per game (408.5) and the second-most FPG to QBs (28.32). Cousins has a chance to reach 30+ pass attempts for the first time this season since the Vikings could be chasing points as seven-point road underdogs in a game with the highest total of the week (58 points).
• Justin Jefferson has lined up on the perimeter on 88% of his snaps the last two weeks, and he’s seen a 28% target share with 11/278/1 receiving in that span. He’s now leading all receivers with 3.7 yards per route run.
• Adam Thielen got back on track last week with 8/114/1 receiving on 10 targets after managing just 6/60/1 receiving in Weeks 2-3. The Vikings enter this week as seven-point road underdogs so there’s some hope for more passing volume this week.
• The Seahawks are allowing 336.3 receiving yards per game to WRs, which is 125.0 more yards per game than the second-closest team, the Browns, at 211.3. They’re also allowing by far a league-high 23.5 catches per game to WRs.

Seahawks Trends

• The Seahawks won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• Seattle has the second-highest implied team total of the week 32.25 points.
• The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS with all four of their games going over the total.
• Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.
• The Seahawks are looking to open the season 5-0 for the first time in franchise history.
• Russell Wilson is 6-0 against the Vikings in his career. He’s averaging 34.3 passes per game and he’s averaging a healthy 9.4 YPA. He leads all QBs with 430 yards and seven TDs on passes that traveled 20+ air yards. The Vikings have allowed 300+ passing yards in three of their four games.
• D.K. Metcalf failed to score last week for the first time this season. He’s still posted exactly four catches in every game with 90+ receiving yards. Will Fuller posted 6/108/1 receiving against the Vikes last week, which is the fourth time they’ve allowed a WR to go for 90+ receiving yards.
• Tyler Lockett posted a disappointing 2/39 receiving on four targets against the Dolphins last week after catching at least seven passes and seeing at least eight targets in his first three games. Mike Hughes returned to practice this week after allowing 5/74 receiving in slot coverage in the first two games of the season before his injury.
• Greg Olsen has 4+ catches in three of his first four games with Seattle after posting 5/35 receiving on seven targets (21% target share) against the Dolphins in Week 4. The Seahawks have yet to allow a TD to a tight end.
• Chris Carson looked just fine playing through his knee injury last week, turning 20 opportunities into 100 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Carson has scored five times and he’s easily on pace for a career-year as a receiver with 15/113/3 receiving at the quarter-pole. The Vikings have allowed a back to reach 60+ rushing yards in every game but no back has scored 7+ FP through the air against them this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Minnesota Vikings +7 (Staff Pick Lean)