Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
Tom Brolley
Game Picks
ATS Record: 12-10-1 (-.01 units); W5: 3-2 (+.92 units)
Totals Record: 2-2 (+.05 units); W5: 0-0
Cincinnati Bengals (+12.5, FanDuel) at Baltimore Ravens
I’m kicking myself for not getting down on this when the line was at +13.5. I held out hope that it would reach two touchdowns by the end of the week, but Lamar Jackson’s absence from practice this week with a knee injury is driving this price down. It’s notable that the Ravens pulled Lamar early last week for Robert Griffin III when they had a big lead. Lamar ran for a 50-yard touchdown last week, but he had just three rushing yards with his other six carries. He’s also uncharacteristically missed a couple of deep throws the last couple weeks so maybe there is something bigger going on with Lamar. I was already leaning heavily toward the Bengals and Joey “Covers” Burrow this week so I’m getting down now on Cincinnati This line could plummet under 10 points if Lamar is ruled out this week, although that looks unlikely. Risk 1.5 units at -110 to win 1.36 units (Oct. 8).
Cleveland Browns (+2.5/+105, FoxBet) vs. Indianapolis Colts
This line briefly reached +3 early in the week but it looks like the Colts will settle as a short favorite this week. I’m higher on the Browns and lower on the Colts than the public, and I have the Browns as slight home favorites in this matchup this week. The Browns will be without RB Nick Chubb this week, but they have the best “backup” RB in the league in Kareem Hunt, who could even be an upgrade over Chubb. The Colts could have bigger issues at linebacker this week with both Darius Leonard (groin) and Bobby Okereke (thumb) looking questionable for this week, and LT Anthony Castonzo (rib) is also up in the air. WR Odell Beckham and DE Myles Garrett are off to strong starts and they’re both fully engaged right now so let’s roll with the Browns and take a little taste of the moneyline, as well. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. Risk .25 units at +105 to win .26 units (Oct. 8).
Carolina Panthers (+3/+136, FoxBet) at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a short week flying back from a late start Monday night game in Wisconsin, and they could be severely undermanned against the Panthers this week. Julio Jones aggravated his hamstring injury against the Packers and Calvin Ridley was ineffective playing through his hamstring injury. S Ricardo Allen (elbow), S Keanu Neal (hamstring), CB A.J. Terrell (COVID-19), and DE Takk McKinley (groin) each sat out Monday night and the Falcons lost S Damontae Kazee to a torn Achilles and S Jaylinn Hawkins to a concussion in Week 4. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers offense are playing well in the early going, and they should keep the momentum going in this matchup this week. I’m taking the field goal now before this game closes closer to a pick-em and I’ll also take a small piece of this moneyline now. Risk one unit at +100 to win one unit. Risk .25 units at +136 to win .34 units (Oct. 6).
Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, DraftKings) at New York Jets
I broke this game down as part of my Week 5 Opening Line Report. I bet both the Cardinals at -6.5 and the Cowboys at -9 on Monday morning because I believe both of those lines will get to double digits later this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 5).
Dallas Cowboys (-9, DraftKings) vs. New York Giants
I broke this game down as part of my Week 5 Opening Line Report. I bet both the Cardinals at -6.5 and the Cowboys at -9 on Monday morning because I believe both of those lines will get to double digits later this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 5).
Player Props
Record: 45-32 (+9.42 units); W5: 6-9 (-3.46 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Nick Foles (Chi) over 21.5 completions (-115, FoxBet) (W)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) anytime TD (.5 unit at +210, FoxBet) (L)
Cam Brate (TB) anytime TD (.5 unit at +375, BetMGM) (L)
Deshaun Watson (Hou) under 24.5 completions (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Baker Mayfield (Cle) under 244.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
D.J. Chark (Jax) over 4.5 receptions (+110, DraftKings) (L)
CeeDee Lamb (Dal) over 4.5 receptions (+115, DraftKings) (W)
Joe Burrow (Cin) over 267.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Tee Higgins (Cin) over 42.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Kyler Murray (Ari) under 259.5 passing yards (-118, DraftKings) (L)
Le’Veon Bell (NYJ) over 2.5 receptions (-110, BetMGM) (L)
Frank Gore (NYJ) under 34.5 rushing yards (-118, DraftKings) (W)
Miles Sanders (Phi) over 82.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Henry Ruggs (LV) over 33.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Hunter Henry (LAC) over 4.5 receptions (+114, FanDuel) (L)
Devin Singletary (Buf) over 58.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)
