The NFL revealed its 2020 schedule on May 7, which means sportsbooks released their Week 1 opening lines for the weekend of Sept. 10-14. It’s time to dive into a few of these matchups to see if there are any lines that we should bet now or if there are any lines we should hold off betting until later this year.
Each Monday morning during the season, I’ll preview four games with lines that I think will move by the end of the week. This article is designed to help you get the best odds possible by helping you to decide if you should place a bet early in the week or if you should wait to wager until closer to kickoff based on potential line movements. I’ll include any early week leans and wagers that I make in my write-ups.
A note before we get started…I’m not expecting teams to be playing in front of packed houses in September because of the current pandemic so I’m neutralizing home-field advantages a bit in my analysis. I’m giving home teams a 1-to-2 point advantage right now as opposed to a typical 2-to-4 point home-field advantage.
Week 1 Opening Lines
Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook on May 7.
| Time | Matchup | Home spread — Total |
| 9/10 8:20 p.m. | Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs | -10.5 — 56.5 |
| 9/13 1 p.m. | Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots | -6.5 — 44 |
| 9/13 1 p.m. | Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens | -8.5 — 49 |
| 9/13 1 p.m. | New York Jets at Buffalo Bills | -5.5 — 40.5 |
| 9/13 1 p.m. | Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers | PK — 46.5 |
| 9/13 1 p.m. | Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons | +1 — 49 |
| 9/13 1 p.m. | Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins | +6 — 45.5 |
| 9/13 1 p.m. | Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions | -1.5 — 44.5 |
| 9/13 1 p.m. | Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars | -8.5 — 47 |
| 9/13 1 p.m. | Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | -3.5 — 47 |
| 9/13 4:05 p.m. | Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals | +3.5 — 46 |
| 9/13 4:25 p.m. | Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | -8 — 45 |
| 9/13 4:25 p.m. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints | -4.5 — 49.5 |
| 9/13 8:20 p.m. | Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams | +3 — 50 |
| 9/14 7:15 p.m. | Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants | +3.5 — 48.5 |
| 9/14 10:10 p.m. | Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos | -3 — 42 |
Dallas Cowboys (8-8, 9-7 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (9-7, 10-5-1 ATS)
Opening Line: Cowboys -3, 50
Recent Results: The Cowboys and the Rams, along with the Bears, just missed out on the final NFC playoff spots last season. Dallas finished first in yards per game (431.5) and sixth in points per game (27.1), but their defense continued to struggle to force turnovers. The Cowboys intercepted a pass on just 1.23% of the passes they faced last season (third-lowest), and they averaged just 1.1 takeaways/game (tied eighth-lowest). It was a similar story for the Rams, who finished seventh in yards per game (374.9) and 10th in points per game (24.6). A fairly loaded Rams defense under former DC Wade Phillips inexplicably allowed 40+ points in three losses last season.
Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Jason Garrett era finally came to an end after three division titles and four .500 seasons in nine years. Owner Jerry Jones brought in Mike McCarthy to breathe new life into this stagnant franchise, and he inherits an absolutely loaded offense that got even better after they drafted CeeDee Lamb in the first round. Dallas’ defense could be a work in progress after losing two massive pieces in pass rusher Robert Quinn and CB Byron Jones this off-season. The Rams, locked in salary cap hell, couldn’t do much to improve their team this off-season. Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Corey Littleton, and Dante Fowler are no longer in the fold, and they added just Leonard Floyd, A’Shawn Robinson, Cam Akers, and Van Jefferson to offset their losses.
Potential Line Movement: The Cowboys and the Rams have taken two similar paths since the 2018 season. The Rams clearly regressed last season off of their 2018 Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, and their talent level took a dip this off-season. The Cowboys also regressed last season after losing to the Rams in the Divisional Round in 2018, and their defensive talent level took a hit this off-season. I had the Cowboys rated as the better team in my initial batch of Power Ratings, but this line appears to be a bit inflated. I’ll release my next set of Power Ratings soon, but I’ll have this line much closer to a pick-em affair. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see this total rise a little bit as we get closer to September because of the strength of these offenses compared to the defenses. I’d grab the full field goal now if you’re looking to bet the Rams, and I’d wait to get the Cowboys since I’m expecting this line to tick down some.
Indianapolis Colts (7-9, 7-7-2 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10, 7-9 ATS)
Opening Line: Colts -8.5, 47
Recent Results: The Colts faded hard down the stretch in 2019 with Jacoby Brissett looking more like a backup QB than a starter in the second half of the season. The Colts covered the spread in just three of their final 10 games, which included an embarrassing 38-20 loss to a hapless Jaguars squad in the season finale. Speaking of fading hard down the stretch, the Jags failed to cover a spread in five straight games from early November until early December. They failed to score 21+ points during that pitiful skid, and they had an average margin of defeat of 23.4 points in that span.
Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Colts remedied their QB situation by netting Philip Rivers in free agency. The Colts are in win-now mode with Rivers in the fold, and they’re gunning to win an AFC Conference that will be without Tom Brady for the first time since 1999. They also traded away the 13th overall pick in this year’s draft for DeForest Buckner, who will anchor their defensive line this season. The Jaguars added some top talent early in the draft by selecting CB C.J. Henderson, EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, and WR Laviska Shenault in the first two rounds. They brought in 12 players overall, but all their many selections came at the expense of trading away players like Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, Nick Foles, and A.J. Bouye.
Potential Line Movement The Colts are building for a championship run in 2020 while the Jaguars are building for a future with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence as their franchise QB starting in 2021. With that said, this line opened way too high in favor of the road Colts. The Colts could be a top contender for the AFC title by the end of the season, but they could have some offensive growing pains with Rivers leaving SoCal for the first time in his professional career. I wouldn’t get excited about betting on the Jaguars this season, but I think there’s some value on them at 7+ points in their season opener. I’m expecting the markets to correct themselves with this line likely to close in the 6-to-7 point range. I would wait to see if this line dips below the key number of seven before wagering on the Colts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9, 5-9-2 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (13-4, 11-6 ATS)
- Opening Line: Saints -4.5, 49.5
- Recent Results: The Buccaneers had a roller-coaster 2019 season with Jameis Winston airing it out to both teams. Winston, who will open the 2020 season on the opposing sidelines, threw for 5109 yards and 33 TDs, but he also threw 30 INTs. His career with the Bucs ended in fitting fashion as he threw a pick-six in overtime of their season finale against the Falcons. The Saints had high hopes for a Super Bowl title last season, but they exited the playoffs with a whimper in a 26-20 overtime loss to the Vikings as 7.5-point home favorites.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: You may have heard that some guy named Tom Brady left the Patriots after 20 seasons to join Bruce Arians and company in Tampa Bay. Brady then did some recruiting and got his pal Rob Gronkowski out of retirement to join him for one last run at a Super Bowl. The Bucs also added three seemingly pro-ready prospects in the first three rounds of the draft in OT Tristan Wirfs, S Antoine Winfield, and RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn. The Saints had a low-key solid off-season by adding veterans Emmanuel Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins before drafting C Cesar Ruiz in the first round, who should challenge for a starting spot immediately.
- Potential Line Movement: Brady has been favored in an amazing 74 consecutive regular-season starts, which ESPN Stats & Information says is the longest in the Super Bowl era. It looks like Brady will be an underdog for the first time since Rex Ryan’s Bills squad closed as 1-point home favorites over Brady’s Patriots in Week 2 of 2015. This line looks right to me, but I’m expecting Tampa’s off-season momentum to carry over to the start of the regular season. I think we’ll see a slow rush to the window to bet the Buccaneers over the summer, and I see the Saints closing as 3-to-4 point favorites. If you’re looking to bet the Bucs, I’d get down now to get the hook while I’d wait to get a shorter number if I’m looking to bet on the Saints. Keep in mind that Sean Payton and Drew Brees have notoriously come out of the gates extremely slow, losing six straight season openers against the spread.
Tennessee Titans (11-8, 10-8-1 ATS) at Denver Broncos (7-9, 9-7 ATS)
- Opening Line: Broncos -3, 42
- Recent Results: The Titans stunned the NFL by marching to the AFC Championship behind the powerful legs of Derrick Henry. They dispatched AFC royalty in the Patriots during the Wild Card Round before knocking off the NFL’s top regular-season team in the Ravens during the Divisional Round. Tennessee’s magical run eventually ended at the hands of the future Super Bowl champion Chiefs in the AFC title game. With Ryan Tannehill inserted into the lineup, they finished the season on a 7-3 ATS run. The Broncos also ended their season with a flurry, racking up a 6-3 ATS record in their final nine games. Denver turned to Drew Lock in the final five contests, and they reeled off a 4-1 overall record.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Titans faced a couple of key financial decisions after the 2019 season, and they left the off-season a slightly worse team. They kept Tannehill (four-year deal) and Henry (franchise tag) in the mix, but they lost RT Jack Conklin (Browns) in the process — they drafted his potential replacement in OT Isaiah Wilson. They brought Vic Beasley in to replace Cameron Wake, and they drafted CB Kristian Fulton to succeed Logan Ryan. Meanwhile, the Broncos got busy catching up to their AFC West rival Chiefs by adding a slew of offensive weapons to put around Lock. They signed RB Melvin Gordon to be their bellcow back before drafting WRs Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and Lock’s former college teammate Albert Okwuegbunam.
- Potential Line Movement: I can’t tell if the markets think extremely highly of a Lock-led Broncos team with this line, or if they’re disrespecting the Titans off their AFC Championship run. It’s likely a combination of both factors. Considering Denver’s home-field advantage will likely be mostly negated, I would’ve expected this line to open in the pick-em range. Instead, sportsbooks opened the Broncos as full field goal favorites. I guess oddsmakers are baking in that the Titans have to travel to the Rocky Mountains for the latest start time of any game this season. The Titans have already started to take money off of the opening lines so grab the full field goal if you can still find them if you’re looking to wager on Tennessee. If you want to back the Broncos in the season opener, there should be no rush to get to the betting window. I’m expecting the Broncos to close as a slight favorite with this line potentially closing in the pick-em range.
