Thanks for checking out the first edition of my NFL Power Ratings, which will be a weekly staple during the season and the playoffs. I’m also planning on doing periodic updates during the off-season with more regular updates coming once training camp starts. It’s time to give my initial ratings for the 2020 season with most of the big free agency moves in the books. My next update will come some time after the draft.
My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. During the season, they’ll take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I hope you find these ratings useful. Please @ me on Twitter if you have strong disagreements with any team’s rating. Good luck with your wagers!
Example: My top-rated team, the Ravens (+8), would be 12.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Panthers (-4.5). Using a typical three-point adjustment for home-field advantage, the Ravens would be 15.5-point favorites over the Panthers at home and 9.5-point favorites over the Panthers on the road. I’m planning on releasing my 2020 home-field advantages for every team in August, so stay tuned. Like the rest of you, I hope our country will be back and running by this fall so I’ll have to take into account those home-field advantages.
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2019 Record (ATS) |
| 1. | Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 14-2 (10-6) |
| 2. | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 | 12-4 (10-5-1) |
| 3. | New Orleans Saints | 7 | 13-3 (11-5) |
| 4. | San Francisco 49ers | 6.5 | 13-3 (9-6-1) |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 3.5 | 11-5 (7-8-1) |
| 6. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3.5 | 7-9 (5-9-2) |
| 7. | Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 8-8 (9-7) |
| 8. | Philadelphia Eagles | 2.5 | 9-7 (7-9) |
| 9. | Green Bay Packers | 2.5 | 13-3 (10-6) |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 2 | 10-6 (9-5-2) |
| 11. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 8-8 (9-7) |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 7-9 (7-7-2) |
| 13. | Los Angeles Rams | 1.5 | 9-7 (10-5-1) |
| 14. | Tennessee Titans | 1.5 | 9-7 (8-7-1) |
| 15. | Minnesota Vikings | 1.5 | 10-6 (9-7) |
| 16. | Cleveland Browns | .5 | 6-10 (5-10-1) |
| 17. | Houston Texans | .5 | 10-6 (7-8-1) |
| 18. | New England Patriots | .5 | 12-4 (8-7-1) |
| 19. | Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 5-10-1 (9-5-2) |
| 20. | Atlanta Falcons | 0 | 7-9 (8-8) |
| 21. | Los Angeles Chargers | -.5 | 5-11 (4-9-3) |
| 22. | Chicago Bears | -.5 | 8-8 (4-12) |
| 23. | Denver Broncos | -1 | 7-9 (9-7) |
| 24. | Las Vegas Raiders | -1 | 7-9 (8-8) |
| 25. | Detroit Lions | -1.5 | 3-12-1 (6-10) |
| 26. | New York Giants | -2 | 4-12 (7-9) |
| 27. | New York Jets | -2 | 7-9 (7-9) |
| 28. | Cincinnati Bengals | -2.5 | 2-14 (6-10) |
| 29. | Miami Dolphins | -3 | 5-11 (9-7) |
| 30. | Washington Redskins | -4 | 3-13 (6-10) |
| 31. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -4.5 | 6-10 (7-9) |
| 32. | Carolina Panthers | -4.5 | 5-11 (6-9-1) |
Initial Power Ratings Observations
Tier I
Ravens (8), Chiefs (7.5), Saints (7), 49ers (6.5)
The Ravens would’ve ended the 2019 regular season at the top of my power ratings, and they’re in the top spot in my initial ratings for 2020. They led the league in blitz rates in each of the last two seasons, but may be able to play teams more straight up after trading for DE Calais Campbell. The Ravens did lose seven-time All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda to retirement this off-season, which is likely to hurt the league’s top rushing attack from last season.
The Saints jumped ahead of the 49ers by signing former San Francisco WR Emmanuel Sanders and S Malcolm Jenkins. The 49ers also lost a huge piece in DT DeForest Buckner, but they’ll have their chance to pull even or ahead of the Saints if they knock it out of the park with their two first-round picks — although there’s a great chance they trade away one of those picks for more ammunition since they don’t have another pick until the fifth round.
Tier II
Seahawks (3.5), Buccaneers (3.5), Cowboys (3), Eagles (2.5), Packers (2.5)
I have a massive gulf between the top four teams in the league (Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, and Saints) and the next group, which features five NFC teams. The NFC was already going to be a gauntlet this season and then the Buccaneers landed Tom Brady in free agency. I may be a little conservative with the Bucs first rating, but we should find out early if the Patriots offensive struggles last season were a product of Brady’s cast or a decline in his play. Brady’s cast won’t be the issue this season, and the Bucs defense is going to appear much better this season because Brady won’t be putting them in terrible spots — the Bucs had the fifth-best defense based on the Football Outsider’s DVOA. Tampa could have one of the more volatile ratings early in the season based on their early-season performances.
The Seahawks have had a sneaky strong off-season with a number of affordable, under-the-radar signings to round out their roster. The Seahawks could (and should) throw it more this season with their top two backs coming back from injury. TE Greg Olsen and WR Phillip Dorsett will give QB Russell Wilson some much-need receiver depth behind D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. They also added CB Quinton Dunbar and DE Bruce Irvin to bolster their defense. Seattle has the chance to improve more in the couple weeks with DL Jadeveon Clowney’s price plummeting and with three picks in the first two rounds.
Tier III
Bills (2), Steelers (2), Colts (2), Titans (1.5), Rams (1.5), Vikings (1.5)
I have my next group of AFC contenders quite a bit behind the clear top of the conference in the Ravens and the Chiefs. The Bills, the Steelers, and the Colts have the talent on both sides of the ball to move higher this year, but each team has questions at quarterback. The Bills have put Josh Allen in the position to make another leap in his third season after trading for an elite route-runner in Stefon Diggs. The Steelers have the defense to contend for a Super Bowl title, but their 38-year-old QB Ben Roethlisberger is a huge unknown coming off throwing-elbow surgery. And Philip Rivers will be playing behind the best offensive line he’s had in many years but, at 38 years old, he’s coming off a season when he threw for just 23 TDs (a 12-year personal low) with 20 INTs (third-most in NFL).
The bottom half of this tier features three teams that I believe are on the downslope of their peaks in recent seasons. The Titans had a magical run at the end of last season, but they were forced to pay up for QB Ryan Tannehill ($62 million guaranteed) and RB Derrick Henry (franchise tag), which has already cost them RT Jack Conklin and DT Jurrell Casey. Meanwhile, the Rams and the Vikings keep leaking talent in recent seasons since inking Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins to massive contracts. At least the Vikings have two first-round picks to stem some of the bleeding while the Rams will have to wait until the 52nd spot to make a selection this season.
Tier IV
Texans (.5), Browns (.5), Patriots (.5), Cardinals (0), Falcons (0)
The Patriots are still getting a lot of love from sportsbooks. They’re clearly hesitant to give Bill Belichick too long of Super Bowl title odds even without Tom Brady — DraftKings currently has them with the seventh-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +1800. I’m quite a bit lower on the Patriots with the likes of Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer at quarterback. They also lost some key defensive pieces in OLB Kyle Van Noy, and OLB Jamie Collins, and DT Danny Shelton. I’ll likely be fading the Patriots early in the year unless the sportsbooks start to sour on them during the preseason.
The Cardinals were one of the biggest risers and the Texans were one of my biggest fallers in my power ratings since the end of last season, and their movements were directly tied to the trade of DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals filled a gigantic need at WR by landing Nuk, and they'll be freed up to use their draft picks on their remaining needs at offensive tackle and in their defensive front seven. Meanwhile, HC/GM Bill O’Brien appears to be actively trying to sabotage the Texan’s chances of winning a Super Bowl while Deshaun Watson is still on his rookie contract. They’ll be counting on new acquisitions Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb to offset the loss of Hopkins.
Tier V
Chargers (-.5), Bears (-.5), Broncos (-1), Raiders (-1), Lions (-1.5), Giants (-2), Jets (-2)
I can see all seven of these teams contending for playoff spots next season, and I can see all seven of these teams contending for a top-five draft pick in 2021. I’m a little lower on the Bears than the sportsbooks because I just don’t see Nick Foles as a dramatic upgrade over the terrible Mitch Trubisky. The Chiefs are clearly the class of the AFC West, and Patrick Mahomes is a huge reason why since they hold such a massive advantage over the rest of the division at the position. The Chargers (Tyrod Taylor), the Broncos (Drew Lock), and the Raiders (Derek Carr/Marcus Mariota) spent the off-season bringing in some much-needed help at critical spots. But, at the end of the day, the play of these bottom-tier QBs will likely decide if any of these teams can put some pressure on the Chiefs in the AFC West.
Tier VI
Bengals (-2.5), Dolphins (-3), Redskins (-4), Jaguars (-4.5), Panthers (-4.5)
The Bengals and Dolphins are two teams that are likely to move up to the next tier in my next Power Ratings update based on what happens in the draft. Cincinnati appears locked into drafting Joe Burrow first overall, who should be an immediate upgrade at quarterback. The Dolphins have a league-high three first-round picks to improve a roster that’s made some big strides already this off-season — they signed CB Byron Jones, LB Kyle Van Noy, and DE Shaq Lawson among others. The Jaguars and the Panthers are the early favorites to earn the #1 overall pick and the right to draft Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft.
