2025 Week 4 DFS Coverage Shells

What’s going on, everyone? I’m happy to be back for another week covering DFS plays based on coverage matchups, scheme, personnel, and much more.

I’ve found myself tailing some of the same offenses/defenses over the first month of the season. Data is coming in by the week, but it’s still scarce compared to season-long samples. Familiarity with particular units, play callers, etc., has relative value. We’ll continue to expand out as the season progresses.

Let’s get right to it!

Team Defenses

Team Offenses

WAS @ ATL

The Washington Commanders (2-1) travel south to take on the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Commanders are currently 1-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 45.5 points.

WAS is coming off a 41-24 home victory over LV, while ATL is coming off a 30-0 road loss at CAR.

ATL and WAS previously faced off in Week 17 of the 2024 season and WAS won by a final score of 30-24.

Jayden Daniels ($7,000) is priced as the DK QB3 this week, while Michael Penix Jr. ($5,100) is priced outside of the Top 20.

Daniels didn’t play in last week’s game due to a knee injury he suffered in Week 2 at GB. QB Marcus Mariota ($5,000) started in place of Daniels last week, and he finished as the DK QB6 with 21.3 points. Mariota’s 0.93 points per dropback was tied for the 2nd-most efficient outing among all Week 3 QBs.

Daniels has been limited at practice this week but appears to be ramping things up to play on Sunday.

ATL got a lot of heat for last week’s 0-point performance at CAR, much of it centered around scheme:

On Monday, ATL announced that they relieved WR coach Ike Hilliard of his duties. Here is what HC Raheem Morris had to say about the matter:

There’s clear frustration coming from all directions revolving around the fluidity and production components of ATL’s offense.

In fantasy, usage and opportunities often trump efficiency. Coming off a zero-point week, followed by vocal displeasure at the top of the food chain for the current operation, along with a position coach firing just three weeks into the year, has me thinking that we should give this a closer look.

ATL has gone up against the following defenses in their last two games:

• MIN: Fewest PPG allowed to WRs (20.2)

• CAR: 3rd-fewest PPG allowed to WRs (23.3)

Defensively, WAS has given up the 8th-most PPG to opposing WRs (37.5). WAS ranks 2nd in PFF Run Defense Grade (84.6) but ranks 32nd in PFF Coverage Grade (37.7).

ATL is finally back at home after two straight road games. The NFL has always been a league full of irony and humble pie. Maybe last week’s game at CAR was the exact punch in the mouth that was needed in order to instill changes or simply reboot the hard drive.

Here are the pass catchers in this matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

WR Drake London ($5,700) is priced as the DK WR27. London is the DK WR44 on the season, averaging 11.3 PPG, but is the WR14 based on usage at 15.7 expected PPG.

WAS deploys the 6th-highest rate of man coverage defensively (35%).

ATL’s first three opponents of 2025 (TB, MIN, CAR) are all more zone-dominant teams.

When ATL played WAS in Week 17 of 2024, WAS deployed man on 47% of their coverage snaps.

Drake London finished that game with 13 targets and 106 receiving yards and was targeted on 41% of his man coverage routes.

ATL isn’t attacking the middle of the field in the pass game. They rank dead last in MOF pass rate as well as MOF EPA. ATL ranks 2nd in outside runs, and WAS has been an inferior defense against outside runs compared to inside.

I’m interested if ATL uses this to their advantage and stretches the run game outside and stresses WAS horizontally to open up the middle field passing.

As for ATL defensively, they rank 2nd in single-high usage (67%). More specifically, they rank 5th in Cover 3 usage (42%). They also rank 7th in Cover 4 usage (20%).

WAS WR Terry McLaurin ($5,500) is very likely out on Sunday because of a groin injury that apparently almost required surgery:

McLaurin has been the go-to pass catcher vs single-high for WAS. Out of 140+ qualifiers, he ranks 5th in first-read target share vs single-high looks at 43%.

He is targeted on 30% of his single-high routes compared to just 5% of his routes vs two-high:

IND @ LAR

The Indianapolis Colts (3-0) travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams (2-1) at 4:05 PM EST on Sunday. The Rams are currently 3.5-point home favorites.

I thought we definitely had to go over this matchup. It’s currently the highest projected game total on the entire Week 4 slate at 49.5 points.

IND is coming off a 41-20 victory over TEN and gets set for their second consecutive road game, while LA is coming off a gut-wrenching 33-26 loss at PHI.

My condolences to anyone with LA +3.5 tickets:

Matthew Stafford ($5,900) is priced as the DK QB11, while Daniel Jones (5,600) is priced as the DK QB15.

Stafford and Jones have each graded out as Top 5 PFF QBs through the first 3 weeks of the season. This week’s 49.5 total reflects this despite the defensive quality on each sideline.

Both offenses rank Top 10 in dropback rate over expected (my personal calculation from play-by-play data relative to in-game context).

Let’s take a look at the pass catchers in this matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

Puka Nacua ($7,900) is priced as the DK WR2 this week. Nacua is the NFL WR1 on the season, averaging 25.5 PPG, and is the WR5 in expected PPG based on usage (18.1). His teammate Davante Adams ($6,200) is the WR3 in usage (20.0) but is the WR13 in actual scoring (16.4).

Davante Adams owns the highest expected points per team play among WR/TEs through the first three weeks of the season!

Adams being priced as the DK WR17 this week, on top of the advantageous coverage matchup grade, makes him a value. Adams has the 3rd-highest projected expected points per route run this week based on the coverage matchup, while Nacua ranks 5th:

The bad news for Adams? Suspect injury news late in the week:

Matthew Stafford operates from under center more than any other QB in the NFL this season. LA also runs the highest rate of play action:

When Stafford lines up under center, Nacua is targeted on 52% of his routes with a 6.55 YPRR, compared to 19% and 2.14 for Adams.

On early downs, Nacua is targeted on 50% of his routes compared to 28% for Adams.

On third down, Adams is targeted on 41% of his routes compared to 35% for Nacua.

When Stafford lines up from the gun, Nacua is targeted on 42% of his routes with a 2.98 YPRR (40%, 2.62 for Adams).

I think this overall does a good job encapsulating how Nacua is outsourcing Adams despite Adams owning a higher expected PPG based on usage. These play-action and early down shots in heavier expected run situations are incredibly valuable in fantasy.

If this game is a back-and-forth high-scoring affair where one side can attain a multiple-score lead at any point in time, how much will LA be able to operate from under center and dictate the terms offensively?

As for LA on defense, they rank 6th in single-high coverage usage (61%). More specifically, LA deploys Cover 3 at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL (41%).

IND WR Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,100) is the DK WR12, averaging 16.8 PPG on the year, but is the WR51 in usage at just 9.7 expected PPG.

This is partially a function of the efficient IND offense. Although Pittman is due for some regression, being priced well outside the Top 20 WRs makes him a solid value in this matchup.

His teammate WR Alec Pierce ($4,400) hasn’t practiced this week due to a concussion and isn’t trending to play on Sunday.

IND ranks just 16th in 11 personnel usage (62%). Their usage of <3WR sets makes WR snaps in this offense quite valuable based on relative scarcity. Pierce owns a >75% offensive snap share, so his absence could open up opportunities for other WRs lower on the depth chart.

Among the regular starters, Alec Pierce is targeted on the highest percentage of his routes vs single-high coverage so far in 2025.

Rookie TE Tyler Warren ($4,600) is priced as the DK TE5. Warren is the TE10 on the season, averaging 12.2 PPG, and is the TE7 in usage at 11.6 expected PPG.

Warren is always on the field and targeted more often vs two-high looks than he is vs single-high.

If you’re looking for upside and can stomach low production floors, WRs Josh Downs ($4,100) or Adonai Mitchell ($3,100) are cheap dart throws given the matchup and probable Pierce absence.

Should Pierce, in fact, miss this week’s game, Adonai Mitchell likely inherits most of the vacated snaps on the boundary.

Last season, Adonai Mitchell ranked 2nd out of 200+ qualifying pass catchers in expected points per route run vs single-high coverage:

The Alec Pierce injury, which directly affects Adonai Mitchell’s opportunities, combined with the offensive firepower/implied scoring in this game, makes him a quality addition to DFS lineups alongside primary target earners from either sideline.

CHI @ LV

The Chicago Bears (1-2) head out west to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) at 4:25 PM EST on Sunday. The Raiders are currently 1.5-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 47.5 points.

Earlier in the week, CHI opened up as 1.5-point favorites with the game total at 45.5, so it’s interesting to see this move to LV -1.5 and 47.5.

LV is coming off a 41-24 road loss at WAS, while CHI is coming off a 31-14 home victory over DAL.

Caleb Williams ($5,800) is priced as the DK QB12, while Geno Smith ($5,400) is priced as the QB18.

Williams is the DK QB3 on the season, averaging 24 PPG. CHI ranks top 5 in neutral dropback rate and Williams has nearly cut his pressure-to-sack rate in half from his historical (bad) rookie season.

The quick game/progressions aren’t quite there yet for Caleb, but his second-act abilities have done much of the heavy lifting through the first three weeks of the year.

First-year HC and play caller Ben Johnson is letting Williams play on the high dive pretty early on, and his fantasy output has been a big beneficiary.

Out of 36 qualifying QBs, Caleb Williams ranks 31st in first-read pass rate (60%) and owns the 4th-longest time to throw (2.93 seconds on average from snap to throw).

He’s dropping back a lot in neutral situations and holding onto the ball for a while. We should expect some more volatility on these longer dropbacks, assuming they remain somewhat constant given his playstyle. If sack regression hits, this could seriously impact the fantasy output for both Williams and CHI pass catchers.

The quick reads can only improve from where they’re at, and they need to improve over the course of the season to complement what we all know Caleb Williams is capable of outside of structure.

Let’s take a look at the pass catchers in this matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

LV allows the 3rd-most PPG to opposing WRs (44.0) while CHI allows the 4th-most (42.3).

Some notes on the LV defense under HC Pete Carroll:

• Most zone coverage in the NFL (93%)

• 11th in single-high usage (57%); Cover 3 at the highest clip in the NFL (55%)

• Most base personnel in the NFL (72%, 4 defensive backs)

• 3rd-best run defense allowing -0.26 EPA/carry

• 6th-worst pass defense allowing 0.23 EPA/dropback

• Highest stacked box rate per NGS (51%, 8+ defenders)

• Opposing offenses 2nd-highest dropback rate over expected (6.3%)

CHI ranks in the bottom 10 in rush EPA (-0.23) and rush success rate (35%) offensively. All in all, the data tells us the pass game is the strength for CHI here.

WR Rome Odunze ($6,300) is priced as the DK WR15 despite ranking top 5 at his position in both actual and expected PPG this season. He’s on the field for 95% of the offensive snaps. Until that price is corrected and/or he regresses in usage, he remains a strong value.

Defensively, CHI deploys two-high looks at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL (64%) and man coverage at the 11th-highest rate (30%).

WR Jakobi Meyers ($5,400) ranks 5th out of 120+ qualifying pass catchers in first-read target share vs two-high coverage shells (39%).

Collectively, no other defense deploys more Cover 2 and Cover 2 man than CHI (36%).

So far in 2025, Meyers dominates the LV pass catchers against Cover 2 looks: