2025 Week 3 DFS Coverage Shells

We’re now two weeks into the 2025 NFL season, with two games to add to our sample for analysis purposes.

It will take another month or so for efficiency metrics and tendencies to stabilize, so I'll continue to blend this year’s data with priors as we inch closer towards a landmark.

It’s also important to remember that defenses tend to be more of a function of the offenses they face than the other way around. This is especially the case with early-season production.

Let’s get right to it.

Team Defenses

Team Offenses

DAL @ CHI

The Dallas Cowboys (1-1) travel north to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (0-2) at 4:25 PM EST on Sunday. The Cowboys are currently 1-point road favorites.

DAL is coming off a thrilling 40-37 victory last week vs the NYG, while CHI is off the brink of a 52-21 road loss vs DET.

Dak Prescott ($5,900) is priced as the DK QB13, and Caleb Williams ($5,600) is priced as the DK QB16. Defensively, CHI allows the most fantasy points per dropback to opposing QBs (1.14) and DAL allows the 5th-most (0.75). Given the 50.5 game total, tied for the 2nd-highest on the entire Week 3 slate, it’s well worth looking into these passing attacks.

CHI WR Rome Odunze ($5,300) is the WR4 on the season, averaging 25.2 DK PPG and the WR3 in usage at 22.2 expected PPG. In last week’s game at DET, Odunze had 34.8 points on 11 targets, 128 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns.

Odunze’s been on the field for 96% of the team’s early down snaps and 100% of the third down snaps. Given the variety of pass-catching options under first-year HC and playcaller Ben Johnson, Odunze’s involvement stands out through the first 2 weeks of the year.

Let’s take a look at the pass catchers in Sunday’s matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

DK SALARY DFS salary for upcoming game

DAL DC Matt Eberflus makes his return to Soldier Field for the first time since being fired as CHI HC during the 2024 season. DAL traded away All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons to GB right before the start of the 2025 regular season, and it’s been interesting watching their defense adjust to such a shock value roster move.

Defensively, DAL ranks 2nd in usage of zone coverage (92%) and 3rd in usage of two-high shells (64%). Not a single man coverage snap yet!

Rome Odunze has been targeted on 47% of his man routes compared to just 18% of his zone routes.

CHI WR DJ Moore ($5,400) is intriguing because he’s been targeted on more than double of his zone routes relative to man, and targeted 5x his routes vs two-high shells relative to single-high:

Offensively, CHI ranks 4th in 12 personnel usage (44%).

Here’s a relevant tweet from the offseason:

Odunze and Moore have been the primary 12 personnel WRs (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR). Out of 12 personnel, they both own a 33% first-read target share and a 28% base target share respectively.

From 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR), Rome Odunze owns a 32% first-read share and 29% target share, while DJ Moore is at 12% and 8%. WR Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,400) has been the team’s 3rd WR and owns a 32% first-read share and 26% target share from 11.

Moore had directionally similar personnel splits last year. In 2024, he owned a whopping 54% first-read share and 37% target share from 12 personnel, compared to a 28% first-read share and 22% target share out of 11 personnel. With more WRs on the field, we’d expect opportunities to drop going from 12 to 11 personnel, but these extreme splits are definitely noteworthy.

CHI has been consistently split between 11 personnel and 12 personnel in each of the first two games.

Rome Odunze is coming off a monster week and people will question why his salary is less than DJ Moore. While I think either WR is a justifiable play this week, Moore is an intriguing option if you’re looking to differentiate and you underweight usage from the limited sample of the first couple weeks of the year.

As for the DAL WRs, CeeDee Lamb ($8,000) is priced as the DK WR2 and George Pickens ($5,900) as the WR23.

Lamb is the DK WR2 and Pickens the WR16 in expected PPG based on usage. DAL owns the 3rd-highest implied team total of the week at 25.75 points for a reason. CHI ranks 30th in EPA/dropback (0.34) and 31st in dropback success rate (56%) allowed to opposing offenses.

CHI will be without Pro Bowl CB Jaylon Johnson and nickel swiss-army knife Kyler Gordon is questionable.

The CHI pass rush hasn’t been there through the first two weeks of the season:

And their 36.1 PFF Coverage Grade is the worst in the NFL:

Notable words from DAL HC Brian Schottenheimer:

Defensively, CHI ranks 5th in two-high shell usage (62%).

From 2023-2024, CeeDee Lamb averaged 3.31 YPRR and was targeted on 33% of his routes vs single-high, but averaged just 1.92 YPRR and targeted on 25% vs two-high.

In that same timeframe, George Pickens averaged 3.27 YPRR and was targeted on 28% of his routes vs single-high, but just 1.19 YPRR and 17% of routes vs two-high.

Based on historical precedence, it isn’t the best coverage matchup, but a new HC combined with the variance of playing together/new teammates makes up for the difference.

ATL @ CAR

The Atlanta Falcons (1-1) travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers (0-2) in an NFC South showdown at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Falcons are currently 5.5-point road favorites, and the game total is at 43.5 points.

ATL is coming off a 22-6 victory at MIN, while CAR is coming off a 27-22 loss at ARI.

Michael Penix Jr. ($5,600) is priced as the DK QB17, and Bryce Young ($5,000) is priced outside the top 20 QBs.

Last season, when ATL/CAR squared off, it resulted in game totals of 58 and 82. ATL scored 38 points in each of the two matchups. Penix had 3 starts in all of last season, which occurred during Weeks 16-18, and that Week 18 game was against CAR.

Let’s take a look at the skill players in this game:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

DK SALARY DFS salary for upcoming game

ATL RB Bijan Robinson ($7,900) is priced as the DK RB2 this week and justifiably so:

Robinson is the DK RB2 so far in 2025, averaging 25.1 PPG. He posted 29.9 PPG vs CAR last season.

ATL ranks bottom 5 in pass rate over expected and has committed to going heavier on offense. They rank 1st in 12 personnel usage this season (51%) after finishing 30th in 2024 (10%).

This season, CAR is allowing 0.50 EPA/play to opposing offenses in 12 personnel, which ranks 31st among defenses. ATL WR Drake London ($6,000) is priced as the DK WR20 this week but ranks 9th among WRs in usage this season.

The league-high 12 personnel usage is a contributor to London’s usage, but there are some structural changes to this season that in my opinion, require some more time to assess.

Defensively, ATL ranks 3rd in single-high usage (64%). 52% of opposing offense's targets have gone to pass catchers lined up on the outside, highest in the NFL.

CAR WR Tetairoa McMillan ($5,900) has run 84% of his routes out wide and is the clear WR1 vs single-high looks on this team:

With ATL CB A.J. Terrell Jr. doubtful to suit up and the implied negative game script for CAR, McMillan has incredible upside and is by far their most talented WR on tape, even through just two games.

LV @ WAS

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-1) travel east for a cross-conference matchup against the Washington Commanders (1-1) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Commanders are currently 3.5-point home favorites, and the game total is at 44.5.

Jayden Daniels ($7,000) is priced as the QB3, and Geno Smith ($5,200) is priced outside of the top 20. Should Daniels not play, it will be Marcus Mariota ($4,000) under center for WAS:

The Commanders are coming off a 27-18 loss at Green Bay, while the Raiders are coming off a 20-9 loss against the Chargers.

Assuming Jayden Daniels suits up, this game strikes me as a potential bounce-back opportunity for both offenses. Last week’s 18-point performance for WAS is tied for their 2nd-lowest outing in the Daniels era.

WAS scored 18 points two times in 2024, both against quality defenses in CHI and PHI. Last week’s loss happened on the road and on short rest vs arguably the NFL’s top defense in GB.

As for LV, Geno Smith had arguably his worst full NFL game in recent memory vs LAC. He finished with a 40.0 PFF Offensive Grade on Monday night, which stands as his worst individual game as a starter going all the way back to the 2014 NFL season.

Both defenses have vulnerabilities in coverage and better metrics vs the run:

WAS

• 26th PFF Defensive Grade (57.7)

• 31st PFF Coverage Grade (39.2)

• 2nd PFF Run Defense Grade (77.3)

• 4th NGS Average Rushing Yards Over Expected (-0.83)

LV

• 24th PFF Defensive Grade (59.2)

• 27th PFF Coverage Grade (48.5)

• 10th PFF Run Defense Grade (69.9)

• 3rd NGS Average Rushing Yards Over Expected (-0.97)

Both offenses rank inside the top 5 in my pass rate over expected model (PROE), and both defenses rank top 10 in PROE allowed.

WAS has allowed the 6th-most DK PPG to opposing TEs (18.3), the 7th-fewest to opposing WRs (27.7), and the 7th-fewest to opposing RBs (16.2)

LV has allowed the 4th-most PPG to opposing WRs (45.5), the 5th-fewest to opposing TEs (7.2), and the 4th-fewest to opposing RBs (13.2).

Let’s take a look at the skill players in this one:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

DK SALARY DFS salary for upcoming game

LV TE Brock Bowers ($6,000) is the most expensive DK TE this week and sits as the DK TE4 on the season averaging 15.6 PPG.

LV ranks 5th in early down dropback rate (65%). As you can see from the table, Bowers has missed out on some of these early down opportunities with just a 61% early down snap share. Teammate and fellow TE Michael Mayer ($3,000) owns a 54% early down snap share.

It’s been a frustrating first two weeks for some fantasy owners out there given the hope all offseason that LV would go heavy under new OC Chip Kelly.

So far, that hasn’t been the case. LV ranks 16th in 12 personnel rate on early downs (28%).

I highly recommend subscribing to the free Stats & Scheme Weekly Newsletter from Sumer Sports. Here’s an interesting nugget pertaining to LV/WAS.

Offensively, LV ranks in the top 10 in 11 personnel usage, but ranks 30th in efficiency at -0.17 EPA/play. Defensively, WAS ranks top five in 11 personnel efficiency by allowing -0.11 EPA/play.

When LV has gone heavy with 12 personnel, they’re far more efficient as an offense, averaging 0.14 EPA/play, while WAS is worse off defensivel,y allowing 0.05 EPA/play:

Mayer isn’t a priority target in the passing game (hence his price), but he’s still seeing early down snaps in what’s been more of a zero-sum situation with Bowers than Bowers' fantasy owners would have liked.

Mayer is a plus blocker, so he complements Bowers’ receiving skillset well in theory. However, Bowers is on the field for 28% of the run snaps and 79% of the pass snaps, while Mayer is the inverse. Given their perceived strengths at the position, this feels like you’re not optimizing the potential conflict you could put opposing defenses in via deploying Mayer/Bowers together simultaneously.

Long-winded rant there, but I'm interested to see if LV does go heavy and Bowers sees the field more on early downs, which could help garner lucrative coverage mismatches as LV drops back in expected run situations.

Defensively, WAS ranks 3rd in man coverage usage (41%) and 7th in single-high usage (61%). More specifically, they rank 2nd in Cover 1 usage (38%).

Bowers is targeted more often vs man relative to zone (vice versa for Mayer), and far more often vs single-high looks relative to two-high looks:

I also want to add this. Geno Smith last played against a Dan Quinn defense in Week 13 of the 2023 season, where Smith was the Seahawks QB and Quinn was the Cowboys DC.

DAL won that game by a final score of 41-35. They deployed man coverage on 51% of their snaps (Cover 1 at 40%). Geno Smith threw for 334 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception and produced 34 DK points, which remains his best individual fantasy week since that very game.

LV is on short rest and traveling cross country this week, while WAS hasn’t played since Week 2 Thursday Night Football. I’m interested to see how much movement occurs should Daniels fully commit to playing on Sunday.

WR Terry McLaurin ($5,800) is cheaper than teammate Deebo Samuel ($6,100), likely due to the uncertainty with Daniels, a lower volume floor given McLaurin’s downfield volatility, and Samuel’s start to the season.

Samuel is the DK WR8 at 21.5 PPG but the WR21 in usage at 15.1 expected PPG. McLaurin is averaging just 7.2 PPG and 10.5 expected PPG. Samuel possesses a higher floor than McLaurin, but there’s still some coverage data points to make note of.

Defensively, LV deploys zone at the highest rate in the NFL (93%). More specifically, LV ranks 1st in Cover 3 usage (52%) and 6th in quarters (20%).

McLaurin owns a 50% first-read target share, 31% target share, and 44% receiving yards market share vs Cover 3 this season. Deebo owns a 20% first-read share, 25% target share, and 18% yards market share vs Cover 3.

McLaurin owning such a high first-read share while Deebo owns a higher target share than first-read share stands out and it seems like the data is revealing behind the curtain to their Cover 3 passing progression.

On a per route basis, Samuel is targeted more often vs zone than McLaurin, but WAS hasn’t seen as much Cover 3 relative to other umbrella zone looks.

In the Fantasy Points Data Suite era (2021-2024), 20% to 36% of Deebo Samuel’s targets have occurred at or behind the LOS. So far in 2025, 9 of his 18 targets have (50%).

Samuel’s underneath volume is inflated here and we should expect it to regress. However, the unfortunate loss of RB Austin Ekeler for the remainder of the 2025 season could really impact Samuel’s designed/gadget outlook n a positive sense.