For those of you who aren’t afraid to make trades and thirst for data-supported methods to improve your team throughout the season, this weekly series is for you! I’ll supply you with quick hits for our rest-of-season top-50 players, their trade outlook, and possible player packages you can offer.
With only five weeks to go in the regular fantasy football season, we are at the point where I start taking bigger, educated risks, especially if my team is not a lock for the playoffs. There are several things I look for when evaluating the trade market in my leagues right now:
Favorable schedules over the next couple of weeks. Using our Strength of Schedule Tool, I can determine that the Steelers RBs (Jalen Warren), Vikings WRs (Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison), Buffalo Bills TEs (Dalton Kincaid), and the Lions QB (Jared Goff) have some of the easiest schedules in Weeks 10-15 (for a few examples)
Injury discounts. Which players are returning from injuries this week or in the near future, who were performing at a high level earlier in the season (Bucky Irving, Garrett Wilson, Quinshon Judkins, and Trey Benson)
Negative narrative discounts. Which players are seeing their value driven down by the community, despite there being indicators that they are capable of bouncing back (AJ Brown, Emeka Egbuka, Rome Odunze, and Kenneth Walker)
There are “cheekier” things that I also do to give myself any sort of advantage over my opponents (I call it “scouting ahead”). I’ll often look at the upcoming bye weeks my players have, and if those players have good trade value, I’ll see if a deal can be done with the opponent I play on those bye weeks. I also look at what my opponents' positional needs are when I play them, and try to block their likely waiver wire claims if possible (if my opponent has a QB on a bye this week, I will try and outbid him on the top waiver option).
Many claim that this game is largely luck-based, and to a certain degree, they’re right. However, there are many high-level moves you can make every week, outside of traditional trade offers, that can increase your chances of making the playoffs. Still, evaluating and taking advantage of the trade market in your league will be a top priority.
1. Jonathan Taylor, RB1, IND
The Colts' prolific offense was stymied by the Steelers' defense in Week 9, and they played from behind the majority of the game. Taylor had just 14 rushing attempts, resulting in 45 yards (3.21 YPC), and saw fewer than 1.50 yards before contact per attempt for the first time this season (0.36 YBCO/Att). Taylor will look to bounce back in Week 10 against the Falcons' defense, which is allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to RBs this season (23.2).
2. Christian McCaffrey, RB2, SF
McCaffrey bounced back in a big way in Week 9, with 34.3 fantasy points (26.6 XFP), and he’s now earned 24.0+ XFP in 7/9 games this season. No doubt, if you’ve owned McCaffrey for the entirety of this season, you’re a playoff team. McCaffrey’s fantasy playoff schedule includes the Titans, Colts, and Bears. These defenses are allowing the 5th-most (25.9), 9th-fewest (19.1), and 10th-most (23.1) fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, respectively.
3. Bijan Robinson, RB3, ATL
Robinson faced a Patriots defense that had not allowed an RB to gain more than 50 rushing yards in a game up until week 9. Robinson was held in check like so many others, and hit just 46 rushing yards on 12 attempts (3.83 YPC), while doing the majority of his damage as a receiver (8 receptions for 50 yards). Over the last three weeks, Robinson has averaged just 37.0 rushing YPG, 3.17 YPC, 15.2 FPG, and 16.3 XFP/G. Over that 3-game span, Robinson has only seen 1.17 yards before contact per attempt and has scored just one TD.
4. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB4, DET
After his best game of the season in Week 7, Gibbs disappointed massively, with just 5.8 fantasy points in Week 9 (8.6 XFP). This was largely due to a negative game script, which led to a lack of rushing attempts (9 attempts for 25 yards - 2.78 YPC), and a reliance on the RBs to pass protect (Gibbs was asked to pass block on 15 of his snaps). Gibbs was extremely ineffective in that pass protection role, allowing 7 pressures on those 15 snaps. In turn, David Montgomery earned more rush attempts on the day (11).
Outlook: Shop around based on his puzzling usage and lack of consistent high-value opportunities (Example: any top-5 WR)
5. Ja’Marr Chase, WR1, CIN
Joe Flacco is playing QB at an elite level, and Chase is undoubtedly a top-3 WR ROS, with overall WR1 upside every week. In Week 9, Flacco threw 470 passing yards, the highest total by a QB over 40 years old, and a personal best for Flacco in his illustrious career. With Flacco at QB, Chase is averaging 15.8 targets per game, 114.3 receiving YPG, 25.4 FPG, and 28.1 XFP/G.
6. Rashee Rice, WR2, KC
Rice’s route share has gone up in each of his first three starts this season (peaking at 78.9% in Week 9). He’s recorded at least 8 targets, a 30.0% first-read target share, and a TD in every game so far. What’s most interesting is that he’s also seen a rush attempt inside the 10-yard line in consecutive weeks (scoring in Week 9). Since his return, Rice has led the Chiefs in target share (25.2%), YPRR (2.83), red zone targets (5), TDs (4), first downs (13), and XFP/G (17.0).
7. Puka Nacua, WR3, LAR
Nacua ran just 21 routes in Week 9 (61.8% route share), earning a season-low 7 targets, but was hyper-efficient with those targets, scoring 22.8 fantasy points (1.09 FP/RR). This lack of usage was largely due to his suffering a chest injury in the 3rd quarter, which he did not return from. Sean McVay said that Nacua could have come back if he was needed, but he is scheduled to receive a scan on his ribs this week.
8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR4, SEA
Smith-Njigba continues to impress, making the case that he is the best WR in the NFL right now, as he’s currently on pace to be the first player in NFL history to record 2,000+ receiving yards in a season. He is seemingly open on every single route and commands an absurd league-leading 4.56 YPRR (next closest WR touts a 3.65 YPRR). People are also finally recognizing that Sam Darnold is one of the league's best QBs, as he leads the NFL in YPA (9.65), ANY/A (9.43), aDOT (9.8), and highly accurate throw rate (63.4%).
9. CeeDee Lamb, WR5, DAL
Since his return from injury in Week 7, Lamb has recorded 9.7 targets per game, a 27.9% target share, 89.7 receiving YPG, 2.51 YPRR, 1 receiving TD, a 33.8% first-read target share, 17.4 FPG, and 21.0 XFP/G. These marks are all higher than what George Pickens has been able to produce in the same span. Dak Prescott over these last 3 weeks has recorded 234.0 passing YPG (QB13), 7.02 YPA (QB18), 4 passing TDs (QB12), a 74.2% adjusted completion rating (QB19), and a 59.0% highly accurate throw rate (QB12). Lamb will look to bounce back in Week 11, against a Raiders defense allowing the 5th-most fantasy points to WRs (37.7).
Outlook: Buy based on his likely positive regression toward the mean/XFP (Example: Saquon Barkley + Courtland Sutton)
10. De’Von Achane, RB5, MIA
Achane is one of only two RBs in the league to score at least 12.0 fantasy points in every game this season. Through 9 Weeks, as a rusher, Achane ranks 8th in YPC (5.01), 3rd in explosive run rate (8.3%), 26th in success rate (44.6%), 17th in MTF/Att (0.17), 13th in YACO/Att (2.40), 5th in FPG (19.2), and 3rd in XFP/G (17.8). As a receiver (among RBs), he ranks 3rd in route share (65.4%), 2nd in targets per game (6.7), and 3rd in receiving YPG (30.4). Achane also has the 5th-easiest RB schedule going forward (including the best playoff schedule).
Outlook: Buy based on his consistently high floor paired with a favorable upcoming schedule (Example: Breece Hall + Tetairoa McMillan)
11. James Cook, RB6, BUF
Cook saw a season-high 27 rush attempts in Week 9, resulting in 114 yards (4.22 YPC). He would finish under his expected fantasy points (13.5 fantasy points vs 17.9 XFP) for just the 2nd time this season. This was largely due to Cook being unable to convert his 2 rush attempts inside the 5-yard line, while Ty Johnson (1 attempt) and Josh Allen (2 attempts) were able to convert theirs. Over the last 4 games, Cook has run 48 routes, resulting in only 1 reception for 11 yards.
12. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR6, DET
St. Brown saw a season-high 12 targets in the Lions' Week 9 loss to the Vikings, and also earned a team-high 2 end zone targets (converting neither), after not seeing a single one for 4 straight games. St. Brown’s usage provides for an incredibly reliable fantasy floor (scoring 13.0+ fantasy points in each of the last 7 games), but his lack of TD production over the last four weeks (1 TD) has kept his weekly upside at bay.
13. Saquon Barkley, RB7, PHI
Barkley entered the bye with a groin injury, but all reports indicated that it was mild and of little concern. He’ll look to build on his 33.4 fantasy point performance (13.4 XFP) that he had in Week 8 (which included a season-high 93 explosive rushing yards). He’ll face the Packers in Week 10, who are allowing the 6th-fewest FPG to opposing RBs (18.4), then the Lions in Week 11, who are allowing the 3rd-fewest FPG to opposing RBs (17.0). Barkley’s Week 8 performance may have been solely due to his seeing 8.64 yards before contact per attempt (against the piss-poor Giants run defense).
Outlook: Shop around based on a sell-high opportunity after an outlier top-tier performance from the OL in Week 8 (Example: Quinshon Judkins + Zay Flowers)
14. Josh Jacobs, RB8, GB
Jacobs is the only other RB to average at least 12.0 fantasy points in every game this season. After issuing a “shop around” recommendation last week (due to his declining usage), Jacobs recorded 20.0 fantasy points (20.8 XFP) in Week 9. He did so on just a 57.1% snap share, right around his recent 3-week average (55.9%). That performance was largely due to his high level of efficiency: 5.12 YPC, 11.8% explosive run rate, 82.4% success rate, 4 forced missed tackles, and 3.18 YACO/Att.
15. Emeka Egbuka, WR7, TB
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Egbuka so far, where he averaged 20.5 FPG (on 13.9 XFP/G) in weeks 1-5, and just 6.9 FPG (on 14.6 XFP/G) in weeks 6-8. This discrepancy was largely due to scoring 5 TDs in as many weeks to start the season, and none over the last three. This dropoff in production was likely due to a hamstring injury Egbuka suffered in Week 6, and Baker Mayfield struggling in the games that followed (87.0 passer rating in that span).
Outlook: Buy based on his likely return to full health after the bye week (Example: Michael Pittman + Quentin Johnston)
16. Justin Jefferson, WR8, MIN
Jefferson had his best performance of the season with JJ McCarthy as the starting QB in Week 9 (3-game sample size), putting up 16.7 fantasy points (17.0 XFP). McCarthy wasn’t particularly impressive, recording just 143.0 passing yards (82.6 passer rating), but Jefferson was his favorite target, earning a 36.0% target share, 40.0% first-read target share, and 2 end zone targets. Over the next 8 weeks, the Vikings play 6 of the bottom-10 passing defenses in the league.
Outlook: Buy based on the favorable schedule the Vikings have ROS (Example: Nico Collins + DJ Moore)
17. Javonte Williams, RB9, DAL
A negative game script in Week 9, in which the Cowboys trailed the entirety of the game, played heavily against Williams. He remained efficient, recording 5.53 YPC, a 13.3% explosive run rate, forcing 4 missed tackles, and churning out an impressive 4.40 YACO/Att. However, despite playing from behind all night and running a season-high 29 routes, Williams earned just 1 target (his lowest total of the season).
Outlook: Buy based on his continued high level of efficiency (Example: Breece Hall + DK Metcalf)
18. Brock Bowers, TE1, LV
Bowers had the highest-producing fantasy game of any receiver this season in Week 9 (43.3 fantasy points). He commanded a season-high 33.3% target share (to the tune of 13 total targets), 127.0 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TDs, while running 51.4% of his routes from the slot. With Jakobi Meyers being traded to the Jaguars, Bowers will likely retain this high-volume WR1-esque role ROS. Bowers currently leads all TEs in FPG (17.4).
19. Trey McBride, TE2, ARZ
It has become increasingly clear to everyone that McBride and the Cardinals are much better off with Jacoby Brissett at QB vs. Kyler Murray. McBride has now caught 4 TD passes in 3 games with Brissett at QB, compared to the 5 he had scored with Murray at QB in their 3 seasons together. HC Jonathan Gannon seems hellbent on continuing the misguided narrative that Murray is the starting QB when healthy (Brissett will be the starting QB in Week 10, though).
20. Davante Adams, WR9, LAR
Adams continues to dominate in the red zone this season, notching 2 more end zone targets, and scoring on both, resulting in a 23.0 fantasy point performance. Puka Nacua was knocked out of the game in the 3rd quarter, but Adams was able to match him in target share (21.9%) and first-read target share (28.0%), while out-earning him in XFP (17.0 to 12.9). Through 8 weeks, Adams leads all WRs in red zone targets with 20 and end zone targets with 16 (50.0% conversion rate).
21. George Pickens, WR10, DAL
Over the last 3 weeks (since Ceedee Lamb’s return), Pickens has recorded a 30.2% air yard share (WR31), 22.1% target share (WR27), 79.7 receiving YPG (WR11), 1 end zone target (WR25), a 25.7% first-read target share (WR31), 13.6 FPG (WR22), and 14.4 XFP/G (wR22). He has not out-produced Lamb in any of those categories or scored a single TD in that same span.
Outlook: Shop around based on his lack of scoring opportunities and the likelihood that Lamb overtakes the WR room (Example: Derrick Henry)
22. Lamar Jackson, QB1, BLT
Jackson looked fantastic in his Week 9 return, throwing for 4 TDs and recording a 143.2 passer rating. He currently ranks 2nd in YPA (9.09), 1st in passer rating (136.7), 2nd in deep throw rate (16.1%), 2nd in highly accurate throw rate (62.7%), 1st in FP/FB (0.82), and 1st in FPG (24.2).
23. Bucky Irving, RB10, TB
Everyone is waiting on pins and needles for any sort of Irving update this week. Whether that be a return to practice, a timeline on his injury recovery after the bye, or any indication of his status. Unfortunately, all we have for right now is that he is not “in line” to practice today. He last played in Week 4, and averaged 18.3 FPG (16.8 XFP/G), despite earning just 3.34 YPC (34th), a 2.8% explosive run rate (23rd), 0.14 MTF/Att (19th), and 1.93 YACO/Att (29th) in those first four games.
Outlook: Look to buy (if we get any confirmation he returns soon) based on the Buccaneers getting lineman Luke Goedeke back in conjunction with Irving (Example: George Pickens)
24. Josh Allen, QB2, BUF
Allen had his best performance of the season since Week 1, with 28.82 fantasy points against the Chiefs in Week 9. He’s rushed for fewer than 20 yards in back-to-back weeks, but scored 2 rushing TDs in each of those games. In that same span, Allen has led the team in rush attempts inside the 5-yard line (44.4%), bringing his season-long average to 50.0% on such attempts.
25. Derrick Henry, RB11, BLT
It was not exactly the performance that many had hoped for from Henry against the 6th-worst defense against the run (Dolphins) in Week 9. Still, a positive game script led to 19 rush attempts for Henry, resulting in 119 yards (6.26 YPC). Unfortunately, Henry was unable to convert his single rush attempt inside the 5-yard line, bringing his season-long TD rate from inside the 5-yard line to 27.3% (on 11 attempts). This is his lowest conversion percentage in the last 5 years. Still, Henry plays the Cincinnati Bengals in weeks 13 and 15, who are allowing the most FPG to opposing RBs this season (33.2).
Outlook: Buy based on his recent usage, possible regression toward the mean on TD conversion rate, and favorable upcoming schedule (Example: Tee Higgins + JK Dobbins)
26. Drake London, WR11, ATL
London recorded the 4th-highest fantasy point performance among receivers this season in Week 9 (38.8). It was a truly remarkable performance, as he earned a season-high 4 end zone targets, converting 3 of them. After missing Week 8 due to injury, London would return and lead the team in air yard share (51.8%), target share (37.8%), receiving yards (118), and first-read target share (45.5%). This game may have been a vindication to London truthers, who have constantly heard (from me included) that he does not perform when Darnell Mooney is healthy.
27. Rico Dowdle, RB12, CAR
Dowdle was appointed the starting RB in Week 9, a role he is very unlikely to give back this season. In his 3 starts, Dowdle has recorded 173.0 rushing YPG, 6.65 YPC, a 9.0% explosive run rate, 0.21 MTF/Att, 3.64 YACO/Att, a 60.3% success rate, 31.5 FPG, and 23.8 XFP/G. The Panthers have been making a concerted effort to lean on the run game, giving 26 rush attempts to Dowdle in those 3 starts. He has all of the makings of this year’s most affordable league winner.
Outlook: Buy any way you can if the owner is weak at any other position (Example: Michael Pittman)
28. Kyren Williams, RB13, LAR
Williams saw a 67.5% snap share in Week 9 (25 rush attempts to Blake Corum’s 13), including all 4 of the Rams' rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (scoring once). Williams’ 19.4 XFP was his 2nd-highest weekly total this season, where he out-earned Corum by a wide margin (5.5 XFP). This was the first time all season Williams did not record a single reception, despite running 14 routes (73.5% passing snap share).
29. Patrick Mahomes, QB3, KC
Mahomes heads into a Week 10 bye after his worst performance of the season (10.5 fantasy points). Through 9 weeks, Mahomes ranks 5th in passing YPG (261.0), 3rd in passing TDs (17), 13th in passer rating (98.2), 1st in scramble yards (283), 20th in highly accurate throw rate (55.7%), 8th in FP/DB (0.57), and 3rd in FPG (23.5).
30. Garrett Wilson, WR12, NYJ
Wilson finally returned to practice this week after missing the last two weeks due to a knee injury. We still don’t know who is going to be the starting QB for the Jets in Week 10, but Justin Fields may have played well enough in Week 8 to retain the starting role (244.0 passing yards and a 99.0 passer rating). Prior to his injury, Wilson averaged 9.0 targets per game (WR5), a 29.4% target share (WR3), 76.4 receiving YPG (WR8), a 44.7% first-read target share (WR1), 19.0 FPG (WR6), and 17.0 XFP/G (WR7).
Outlook: Buy based on his usage before injury and the Jets' defense becoming even worse yesterday (Example: Rome Odunze + Keenan Allen)
31. Jaylen Waddle, WR13, MIA
Waddle has another solid fantasy outing in Week 9, earning 14.2 fantasy points (14.8 XFP), and he would have had an additional 4.6 fantasy points if it weren’t for a bogus tripping penalty called against Ollie Gordon. Excluding the complete meltdown by Tua Tagovailoa in Week 7, Waddle is averaging 7.8 targets per game, 96.5 receiving YPG, 3.51 YPRR, a 32.6% first-read target share, and 18.5 FPG in the games since Tyreek Hill incurred a season-ending injury.
32. Breece Hall, RB13, NYJ
If you listened carefully, you could hear the collective groan of every Breece Hall owner when the trade deadline ended yesterday, and he wasn’t moved. To pile on to their woes, reports came out shortly after that the Chiefs were close to getting a deal done for Hall, but trade talks collapsed over a draft pick dispute. Hall is coming out of the bye after his best fantasy performance of the season (32.86 points against the Bengals defense), and will face the Browns in Week 10, who are allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs (15.8). He then faces the Patriots in Week 11, who allow the 4th-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs (17.2).
Outlook: Sell based on his season-high value after playing a JV-level defense, and the fact that he plays two top-5 defenses over the next two weeks (Example: Garrett Wilson)
33. Ashton Jeanty, RB14, LV
The Raiders' offense bounced back in a big way in Week 9, putting up their highest point total all season (29). Jeanty would see his highest snap share (90.0%), resulting in 18 total touches (13 rush attempts and 5 receptions). He still struggled on the ground (3.23 YPC), but made up for that lack of production with a 5-47-1 receiving line. Jeanty faces three top-5 rushing defenses over the next four weeks, so his upside is heavily tied to his usage as a receiver out of the backfield.
Outlook: Shop around based on his tough upcoming schedule and the likelihood the Raiders offense struggles (Example: Chase Brown + Aaron Jones)
34. Quinshon Judkins, RB15, CLE
Judkins is already back at practice after injuring his shoulder in Week 8. The Browns HC Kevin Stefanski recently relinquished his playcalling duties to first-year OC Tommy Rees, and QB Dillon Gabriel will remain the starter. Prior to his injury, Judkins averaged 77.8 rushing YPG (RB6), 15.3 FPG (RB14), and 15.3 XFP/G (RB10). Over each of the next 7 games, Judkins will face defenses that rank among the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
Outlook: Buy based on his bell cow role and upcoming schedule (Example: Nico Collins)
35. Jalen Hurts, QB4, PHI
Over the last five weeks, Jalen Hurts ranks 4th in completion percentage (71.1%), 5th in passing YPG (267.0), 6th in passing TDs (10), 1st in passer rating (125.9), 1st in highly accurate throw rate (67.5%), 1st in deep throw attempt rate (20.2%), 3rd in FP/FB (0.67), and 8th in FPG (22.6). In that same span, he's recorded just 7.0 rushing YPG, and one single rushing TD.
36. Rome Odunze, WR14, CHI
Odunze failed to record a single reception, seeing just 3 total targets, in a Week 9 game that featured 89 total points. Odunze started the season off hot, recording 19.9 FPG (17.6 XFP/G) in weeks 1-4 (thanks to scoring 5 TDs). Since then, he’s averaging 6.0 targets per game, an 18.5% target share, 44.3 receiving YPG, 1.43 YPRR, a 19.3% first-read target share, a 16.7% drop rate, 7.2 FPG, and 11.5 XFP/G. He has not scored a single TD since Week 4, and is 4th in FPG among Bears receivers since then.
37. Tyler Warren, TE3, IND
After scoring in 6 out of 7 of the games to start the season (averaging 14.5 FPG in that span), Warren has been relatively quiet over the last two weeks. He’s recorded just a 6.1% air yard share, 12.3% target share, 39.5 receiving YPG, 1.11 YPRR, 0 end zone targets, a 13.8% first-read target share, 8.5 FPG, and 9.7 XFP/g in that recent two-game span. He has been out-produced in every one of those categories by Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs as well.
38. Ladd McConkey, WR15, LAC
It was a pedestrian performance for McConkey in Week 9 (9.6 fantasy points), but he still led all Chargers receivers in target share (20.7%). Since Week 4, McConkey has led the team in route share (83.1%), air yard share (31.8%), target share (25.6%), end zone targets (7), first-read target share (25.2%), FPG (16.8), and XFP/G (17.1). The Chargers' best offensive lineman, Joe Alt, is now out for the season, which may lead to a continued dependency on quicker throws.
Outlook: Buy based on a limited buy window after his performance last week and the likelihood that the Chargers rely on quick passes to McConkey heavily going forward (Example: Courtland Sutton + DJ Moore)
39. Chris Olave, WR16, NO
In Week 9, with Tyler Shough as the starting QB, Olave posted his worst fantasy outing of the season (8.7 points). Olave earned just 3 targets, a 12.0% target share, and 11.1% first-read target share with Shough at QB (all marks significantly lower than Rashid Shaheed’s). I put my tin hat on and speculated that the Saints were force-feeding Shaheed the ball to up his trade value. One could have nothing to do with the other, but Shaheed was traded to the Seattle Seahawks yesterday, which significantly boosted Olave's stock. Shough offered just a 70.8% catchable throw rate in his first start, compared to Spencer Rattler’s 77.3% catchable throw rate in the 8 games prior.
40. Nico Collins, WR17, HST
C.J. Stroud suffered an awful-looking concussion early in the 2nd quarter in Week 9, knocking him out of the game. In that first quarter, Collins recorded just 1 reception for 9 yards. As soon as Davis Mills took over, Collins was hyper-targeted, earning 7 targets on a 50.0% first-read target share in the 2nd quarter alone. Collins only earned 2 targets in the 2nd half, but ended the day with 14.5 FPG, and 25.5 XFP (his highest mark this season).
Outlook: Sell based on his perpetually capped fantasy ceiling in 2025 (Example: Rico Dowdle + Troy Franklin)
41. Zay Flowers, WR18, BLT
In Lamar Jackson’s first game back from injury, Flowers led the team in target share (21.7%), receiving yards (64.0), first-read target share (28.6%), and XFP (9.6). It was an unfavorable game script for the passing attack, as the Ravens led the Dolphins the majority of the time, and it was the TEs who dominated the red zone target share. Flowers has earned a route share at 87.0% or higher in every game this season and led the Ravens in target share in 7 out of 8 games so far.
Outlook: Buy based on his usage as the clear top dawg at receiver for Baltimore (Example: D’Andre Swift + Xavier Worthy)
42. Courtland Sutton, WR19, DEN
Over the last four games, Troy Franklin has out-earned Sutton in air yards (507 to 364), target share (21.2% to 16.4%), TPRR (0.27 to 0.20), receiving TDs (3 to 1), end zone targets (6 to 2), designed targets (4 to 1), first-read target share (26.5% to 18.6%), and XFP/G (17.5 to 13.9). It has become abundantly clear that Sean Payton wants to get Franklin as involved as possible, and there is a real possibility that he outperforms Sutton from here on out.
Outlook: Sell based on his decreasing usage and lack of prioritization in the passing game (Example: Jordan Addison + Wan’Dale Robinson)
43. Jaylen Warren, RB16, PIT
Warren struggled heavily on the ground in Week 9 (16 rush attempts for 31 yards - 1.94 YPC), and ran just 9 routes (resulting in 2 receptions for -2.0 yards), but scored 16.9 fantasy points (17.4 XFP). This was entirely due to his seeing 3 rush attempts inside the 5-yard line (converting twice), which almost matched his season-long total prior to this game. Warren’s lack of usage near the goal line was the biggest reason for his capped fantasy ceiling, and this is one more reminder that Warren has the most favorable RB schedule in the league in weeks 11-15.
Outlook: Buy based on his recent usage near the goal line and upcoming schedule (Example: Michael Pittman)
44. Tee Higgins, WR20, CIN
Since Joe Flacco took over at QB for the Bengals in Week 6, Higgins has recorded 6.8 targets per game, 80.8 receiving YPG, 4 receiving TDs, and 19.3 FPG. His target share (15.6%), first-read target share (22.4%), and XFP/G (13.5) in that span still pale in comparison to Ja’Marr Chase (36.4%, 45.7%, and 28.1, respectively), but Higgins played his best game of the season in Week 9 (33.1 fantasy points).
45. George Kittle, TE4, SF
In the 3 games since his return from injury (with Mac Jones at QB), Kittle has recorded 3.7 targets per game, a 13.4% target share, 25.0 receiving YPG, 1.04 YPRR, a 17.0% first-read target share, 7.1 FPG, and 6.0 XFP/G. HC Kyle Shanah confirmed that this is still Brock Purdy’s team when he returns from injury, but he also stated that his turf toe issue will linger all season, making him week-to-week ROS.
46. A.J. Brown, WR21, PHI
Brown missed Week 8 due to a hamstring injury that he suffered at the end of the Week 7 matchup against the Vikings. Over the last five weeks, Jalen Hurts (per his write-up) has quietly been one of the best passers of the football, playing at a borderline MVP level, and Brown had scored 14.0 and 28.1 fantasy points in the two games prior to his injury.
Outlook: Buy based on the huge dip in value he is currently experiencing, despite Hurts playing at an extremely high level as a passer (Example: Breece Hall)
47. Drake Maye, QB5, NE
Through 9 weeks, Maye ranks 10th in passing YPG (253.9), 3rd in YPA (896), 2nd in passer rating (116.9), 2nd in scramble yards (269), 1st in completion percentage over expected (12.5%), 1st in catchable throw rate (82.0%), 6th in FP/DB (0.60), and 6th in FPG (21.7). Maye currently has the 3rd-highest completion percentage in a single season all-time (74.1%), and currently has the 3rd-best odds to win MVP (-425).
48. Tetairoa McMillan, WR22, CAR
In Bryce Young’s return, McMillan led the team in air yard share (51.1%), targets (6), target share (30.0%), receiving yards (46.0), first-read target share (40.0%), and XFP (10.0). It was a Week 9 game that was heavily dominated by Rico Dowdle and the run game, but McMillan was the clear focal point of the passing attack. McMillan was one slightly better throw away from a 16.0+ fantasy point outing.
49. Jake Ferguson, TE5, DAL
Since CeeDee Lamb returned to the lineup 3 weeks ago, Ferguson has recorded an 8.3% air yard share (TE24), 14.4% target share (TE18), 26.3 receiving YPG (TE21), 0.82 YPRR (TE32), 17.6% first-read target share (TE14), and 10.3 FPG (TE18). Over the last two weeks, these numbers are far worse, and Ferguson has averaged just 4.5 FPG and 7.4 XFP/G in that span.
50. Oronde Gadsden, TE6, LAC
Gadsden has burst onto the scene over the last month, leading the Chargers in receiving yards in that span (377). In that four-game span, Gadsden has recorded 6.5 targets per game (TE6), 94.3 receiving YPG (TE1), 2.73 YPRR (TE2), 7 red zone targets (TE3), 22.5% first-read target share (TE4), 18.2 FPG (TE2), and 12.3 XFP/G (TE4).
