The NFL season is slowly starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2025 NFL Passing Yards Props for the majority of starting quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Josh Allen and J.J. McCarthy and a couple of additional wagers I considered.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL passing yard props.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
2025 NFL Passing Yards Props
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points passing yards projection. You should target the Lowest Passing Yard Totals for over wagers and the Highest Passing Yard Totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best yardage totals for each quarterback as of May 20.
| PLAYER | FP Projection | Highest Total (bet under) | Lowest Total (bet over) |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 4348 | 4200.5 (-114, FD) | 4000.5 (-140, ESPN) |
| Jared Goff (Det) | 3997 | 3900.5 (-110, DK) | 3750.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 3980 | 3600.5 (-110, MGM) | 3250.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| J.J. McCarthy (Min) | 3929 | 3550.5 (-114, FD) | 3400.5 (-110, DK) |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | 3906 | 3850.5 (-110, DK) | 3615.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 3868 | 3750.5 (-110, DK) | 3675.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 3853 | 3700.5 (-114, FD) | 3500.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 3821 | 3850.5 (-110, MGM) | 3700.5 (-145, ESPN) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 3809 | 3825.5 (-114, FD) | 3750.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 3777 | 3700.5 (-110, MGM) | 3450.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Geno Smith (LV) | 3777 | 3675.5 (-110, 365) | 3500.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 3747 | 4075.5 (-130, 365) | 3900.5 (-115, CZR) |
| C.J. Stroud (Hou) | 3719 | 3825.5 (-110, 365) | 3650.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 3596 | 3450.5 (-114, FD) | 3200.5 (-160, ESPN) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 3596 | 3650.5 (-110, 365) | 3500.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 3590 | 3400.5 (-115, MGM) | 3300.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Caleb Williams (Chi) | 3589 | 3550.5 (-110, MGM) | 3350.5 (-110, 365) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 3565 | 3500.5 (-110, DK) | 3300.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Michael Penix (Atl) | 3489 | 3275.5 (-115, CZR) | 3250.5 (-110, 365) |
| Sam Darnold (Sea) | 3487 | 3500.5 (-114, FD) | 3450.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Cam Ward (Ten) | 3460 | 3225.5 (-115, CZR) | 3100.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 3378 | 3775.5 (-114, FD) | 3749.5 (-110, 365) |
| Bo Nix (Den) | 3342 | 3500.5 (-114, FD) | 3300.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Bryce Young (Car) | 3218 | 3150.5 (-114, FD) | 3000.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 3200 | 3300.5 (-110, 365) | 3200.5 (-110, DK) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 3182 | 3200.5 (-110, DK) | 3150.5 (+100, ESPN) |
| Justin Fields (NYJ) | 2712 | 2575.5 (-110, 365) | 2450.5 (-115, CZR) |
Brolley’s Bets
Josh Allen (Buf) under 3775.5 regular season passing yards (-114, FanDuel). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 20.
Allen is coming off five-year lows in passing attempts (483) and passing yards (3731) in his first season without Stefon Diggs. Buffalo’s offense has moved to a more run-heavy approach under OC Joe Brady in the last season and a half. The Bills sat at 9.5% pass rate over expectation in 2022 and 7.1% in the first 10 games of 2023 before Ken Dorsey was fired. Under Joe Brady, the Bills dipped to -2% for the remainder of 2023 before sitting at just 1.9% last season. We’re projecting the Bills to remain around league average in pass rate with a receiving corps led by Khalil Shakir and Josh Palmer.
The Bills have the NFL’s highest win total at 11.5, which is juiced to the over, and the shortest odds to win a division at -250. They could be playing from ahead in quite a few games, which could limit Allen’s passing volume. He could also rest in the finale again if they have the AFC West wrapped up before Week 18. We have Allen projected for 3378 passing yards in 15 games, which is 422.5 yards below his yardage prop at FanDuel.
J.J. McCarthy (Min) over 3400.5 regular season passing yards (-110, DraftKings). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 20.
McCarthy missed his entire rookie season because of a knee injury, but the runway has been cleared for the Michigan product to take over one of the NFL’s best offenses. Kevin O’Connell’s offenses have ranked in the top six in passing yards and in pass rate over expectation in each of his first three seasons as head coach. Sam Darnold revived his career as Minnesota’s quarterback last season, averaging 7.9 YPA and 254.1 passing YPG, throwing to stars like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
McCarthy is a bit of an unknown since we didn’t even see him take preseason snaps, and there’s certainly risk backing basically a rookie quarterback. I’m putting my faith in O’Connell, who previously kept the pedal to the metal after Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury in 2023. The Vikings ranked fifth in PROE (4.3%) and eighth in passing YPG (260.7) in the final nine games, despite career backups Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, and Jaren Hall running the show. We have McCarthy projected for the fifth-most passing yards at 3929, which is 528.5 yards more than his yardage prop at DraftKings.
Brolley’s Leans
Patrick Mahomes (KC) under 4075.5 passing yards (-110, Bet365)
Sportsbooks opened Mahomes with the second-highest passing yards total (4075.5), but we have him projected for the 12th-most passing yards (3747). The Chiefs have finished in the top two in pass rate over expectation in each of the last four seasons, so I understand why his total is sitting behind only Joe Burrow entering the season. Mahomes is coming off career lows in YPA (6.8) and passing yards (3928), with his aDOT sitting at 6.7 yards or shorter for the third straight season. It was no coincidence that Mahomes posted his worst numbers with Travis Kelce taking his first noticeable step back in his age-35 season. I’m ultimately staying away from this prop just in case Xavier Worthy and a healthy Rashee Rice take big steps forward, which would elevate Mahomes to his early-career numbers.
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) over 3250.5 passing yards (-110, ESPNBet)
This bet will come down to whether Tagovailoa can avoid missing significant time, as he did last season. Tua missed four games early in 2024 after suffering another concussion before sitting out the final two games. He still finished with 2867 passing yards in 11 games to average 260.6 passing YPG, and he averaged 269.2 passing YPG over the last three seasons with Tyreek Hill and Mike McDaniel. Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both candidates to bounce back. Tyreek fell below 1000 yards for the first time since 2019, and Waddle mustered just 744 yards in 15 games after previously hitting 1000+ yards in each of his first three seasons. Tagovailoa would likely be placed on the injured reserve if he suffers another concussion this season, which means an automatic four games missed. Considering his lengthy injury history, it’s enough to keep me from betting over 3250.5 yards.
Sam Darnold (Sea) under 3500.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)
The Seahawks handed Darnold $55 million guaranteed to be their new quarterback after breaking out in his seventh season. Darnold thrived in Kevin O’Connell’s pass-heavy, QB-friendly offense, posting career bests in passing yards (4319) and passer rating (102.5) on his way to finishing third in Comeback Player of the Year voting. He’ll move to a Klint Kubiak offense that is expected to be more of a ball-control offense with the defensive-minded Mike Macdonald as head coach in Seattle. Kubiak’s offense ranked 25th in pass rate over expectation (-2.0%) in New Orleans last season.
Darnold’s receiving corps will be a major downgrade from Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in Minnesota, especially after Seattle moved on from D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Seattle’s offensive line could be a concern after Darnold melted under pressure late last season in two marquee games. I’m also worried that third-round pick Jalen Milroe could see a weekly package of plays because of his elite rushing upside, which would take Darnold off the field. We have Darnold projected slightly under his total, and I believe he’s a candidate to take a step back in his first season with Seattle.
