For those of you who aren’t afraid to make trades and thirst for data-supported methods to improve your team throughout the season, this weekly series is for you! I’ll supply you with quick hits for our rest-of-season top-50 players, their trade outlook, and possible trade packages you can offer.
This is the point in the season where I make the most significant moves. Trends are in place, value is apparent, and the best way to move off of subpar players is going to be in larger trade packages, where you can disguise lower-tier assets. I often look to offer two-for-three or three-for-two trades where I may need to give up a player I like paired with a player (or two) who is declining in production and has a murky outlook at best.
Current Trends
The buy-low window on Rookie RBs has all but closed after Week 4, but I am still looking to buy “high” on the majority of them, while shipping off any RBs that have shown a decline in efficiency or volume recently. The position remains largely healthy through the first four weeks, and the top-end RBs continue to be more valuable than the majority of top-end WRs.
With the new kickoff rule changes, we’ve seen a downward trend in receptions by top-30 fantasy WRs through the first four weeks in 2025, while the position sustains heavy injuries for the second season in a row. The gap between the WR1 and the WR3 (29.9 fantasy points) is the same as the Gap between the WR3 and the WR26.
50.0% of the current top-10 QBs were drafted as the QB12 or later by ADP through the first four weeks of the season, and those late-round QBs have recorded 6 of the 10 games over 28.0 fantasy points in this span. Most leagues have an abundance of QB talent on the Waivers or sitting on the bench. Don’t be afraid to trade for the risky high-upside players.
There are currently 14 TEs averaging 10.0+ FPG through the first four weeks vs only 5 last season. The top two TEs by ADP (Brock Bowers and Trey McBride) currently rank as the WR43 and WR26, respectively. Their fantasy production has been less than Romeo Doubs, Michael Pittman, Jake Ferguson, and Tre Tucker so far.
1. Puka Nacua, WR1, LAR
Nacua currently leads the NFL in targets (50), target share (36.5%), receptions (42), receiving yards (503), YPRR (4.37), first-read target share (45.7%), first downs (26), and FPG (27.4). He has only two TDs.
2. Christian McCaffrey, RB1, SF
Through four weeks, McCaffrey is on pace for 179 targets, 132 receptions, and 1,297 receiving yards this season (there have only been five WRs ever to hit those three marks in a season). Only 22.5 of his 96.0 fantasy points have come from his rushing volume (23.4%), but McCaffrey is averaging 29.4 weighted opportunities per game (since 2021, no other RB has averaged 21.0 of them).
3. Jonathan Taylor, RB2, IND
A 14.6 fantasy point performance feels like a letdown in Week 4, but Taylor was one holding penalty away from a 25.9 fantasy point outing. He saw every rush attempt out of the backfield, and averaged 4.47 YPC against the 11th-stingiest rushing defense in the league. Taylor also ranks 2nd in XFP/G (20.6) among RBs this season.
4. Bijan Robinson, RB3, ATL
Robinson currently leads the NFL in scrimmage yards (584), and is on pace for 2,482 scrimmage yards on the season (would be 2nd-best all-time). He ranks 9th in YPC (4.91), 13th in explosive run rate (6.3%), 3rd in MTF/Att (0.27), and 8th in YACO/Att (2.83). It gets better. Robinson ranks 1st in route share (77.1%), 3rd in Targets/G (5.8), and 2nd in receiving YPG (67.5) among RBs.
5 Saquon Barkley, RB4, PHI
The Eagles’ one-dimensional offense is killing Barkley and the run game (they have a 30th-ranked pass rate at 52.5%). Barkley has seen 1.06, 2.09, 0.89, and 0.74 yards before contact per attempt in each of the first four weeks, while facing stacked boxes 37.7% of the time. Barkley’s efficiency metrics have decreased dramatically across the board from last season to now (2.73 drop in YPC, 5.9% drop in explosive run rate, 0.08 drop in MTF/Att, and 0.42 drop in YACO/att).
6. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB5, DET
Gibbs averaged 6.07 YPC in Week 4 against the best run defense in the league (previously allowing only 2.29 YPC), and his 86 rushing yards against “loaded boxes” was the most by an RB this season. The Lions' O-line is creating the 5th-most yards before contact per attempt (2.18), while Gibbs leads the RB room in rushing snap share at 56.4%. The Lions currently lead the NFL in PPG (34.3), which is higher than their record-breaking 2024 average (33.1).
7. De’Von Achane, RB6, MIA
Achane recorded 99 rushing yards on 20 attempts (4.95 YPC), forced 8 missed tackles, and earned a 75.0% snap share in Week 4. He saw only 1 target, and still finished with 17.1 fantasy points (he had not seen fewer than 3 targets in a Tua Tagovailoa-led offense since 2023). This is the fantasy floor for Achane this season.
Outlook: Buy High based on his incredibly reliable floor and increased upside with Tyreek Hill out for the year (Example: AJ Brown + Alvin Kamara)
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR2, DET
St. Brown leads the league in receiving TDs and has converted all 3 of his end zone targets. The Lions have averaged 41.3 PPG over the last three weeks, with St. Brown recording 28.6 over that span. Through four weeks, his 90.3 catchable target rate ranks 8th-best, while his 23.6 FPG ranks 2nd in the league. His 7.1 FPOE also ranks 2nd among all WRs.
9. James Cook, RB7, BUF
Cook has now scored over 20.0 fantasy points in every game this season, and is currently the RB2 overall (22.8 FPG). He’s seen 18+ rush attempts, 100.0+ rushing yards, and a TD in each of the last three games. His snap share has increased from 49.3% in Week 2, 64.9% in Week 3, and up to 71.9% in Week 4. OC Joe Brady has vocalized his desire to get their other RBs more involved going forward.
10. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR3, SEA
The entirety of the Cardinals' defensive scheme in Week 4 was predicated on trying to make Smith-Njigba a non-factor. He remained clutch when the game was on the line, and still finished the night with 3.04 YPRR, and 13.0 fantasy points. This is the floor for Smith-Njigba this season.
Outlook: We’re still Buying, especially after his season-low fantasy performance in Week 4 (Example: Marvin Harrison + Chuba Hubbard)
11. Josh Jacobs, RB8, GB
The Packers' run-blocking struggled at times, but Jacobs still saw a season-high 2.59 yards before contact per attempt in Week 4. He finished the night with 31.7 fantasy points, a mark he hasn’t hit since 2022. This was largely thanks to his 4 targets (resulting in 71 receiving yards), and 4 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line.
12. Bucky Irving, RB9, TB
The Buccaneers played from behind the entirety of Week 4, leading to Irving’s lowest snap share of the season (58.8%). 53.6% of Irving’s 26.5 fantasy points came on a 72-yard TD catch at the end of the 3rd quarter, but he continues to cede work to Rachaad White in the passing game (where White saw a 52.3% snap share). Irving is reported to have a “foot sprain”, and was recently seen with a walking boot and crutches (yikes).
13. Justin Jefferson, WR4, MIN
Justin Jefferson ran 52 routes in Week 4 (25 was his average through the first three weeks). He recorded season highs in targets (11), receptions (10), receiving yards (126), and fantasy points (22.6). This was largely thanks to Wentz dropping back 54 times, the 3rd-most by any QB in a single game this season. In his return to action, teammate Jordan Addison saw 8 targets and a 25.0% first-read target share.
Outlook: Shop around after his first boom performance based on the Vikings losing several offensive linemen, and the likelihood they don’t eclipse 45+ pass attempts again this season (Example: Tetairoa McMillan + Cam Skattebo)
14. Derrick Henry, RB10, BLT
Henry averaged 5.25 YPC on his 8 rush attempts in Week 4, holding onto the ball ever so tightly, but was outsnapped by Justice Hill (60.4% to 37.7%). The Ravens defense is currently allowing the 2nd most total YPG (406.8), and they’ve only played 40.6% of their snaps with a lead this season. The Ravens went undefeated in the 9 games where Henry saw 20.0+ touches last season (he hasn’t seen 20+ touches once this season, and the Ravens are currently 1-3). Lamar Jackson is also expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury.
15. Omarion Hampton, RB11, LAC
Hampton saw every single one of the Chargers' rush attempts in Week 4, while also earning an 84.1% passing snap share. He had 101 explosive rushing yards, forced 5 missed tackles, and churned out 4.00 YACO/Att, while also earning 5 targets. The loss of Joe Alt could hurt Hampton in the coming weeks, but he has arrived all the same, and he is spectacular.
16. CeeDee Lamb, WR5, DAL
The Cowboys have yet to decide whether or not Lamb will be put on IR (it’s looking less and less likely). In his absence, George Pickens put up an 8-134-2 receiving line as the WR1 in Week 4. Through four weeks, the Cowboys have attempted the most passes in the league (180).
Outlook: Buy based on the likelihood Lamb doesn’t miss much time and the Cowboys are the most pass-heavy team in the league (Example: DK Metcalf + AJ Brown)
17. Nico Collins, WR6, HST
Through four weeks, Collins ranks 32nd in routes run (117), 16th in Targets/G (7.8), 20th in receiving YPG (65.0), 64th in catch rate (58.1%), 13th in first-read target share, 61st in catchable target rate (71.0%), and 21st in FPG (13.8). Stroud currently ranks 25th in aDOT (7.2), 13th in deep throw rate (12.0%), and 16th in highly accurate throw rate (57.3%). These two are not in sync, and this offense is still mediocre at best.
Outlook: Sell “High” based on the poor offensive play we are likely to see from the Texans all season (Example: Quinshon Judkins + Michael Pittman)
18. Josh Allen, QB1, BUF
Allen is 8 rushing TDs away from Cam Newton’s NFL record of 75 (Allen is on pace to do it in at least 15 fewer games). Allen also has the 4th-highest passer rating in the league and 4th-most rushing yards among QBs (159). The Bills continue to sit atop every power rankings list you’ll find.
19. Trey McBride, TE1, ARZ
McBride continues to be Mr. Reliable, scoring over 12.0 fantasy points in all four weeks this season. His metrics in 2025 largely mirror those from 2024 across the board, with the only significant difference being his receiving YPG (58.5 vs 71.6). This would explain his scoring 2.2 fewer FPG and XFP/G this season, as his TD production (1 TD) continues to keep his fantasy ceiling largely in check (once again).
20. Brock Bowers, TE2, LV
The rollercoaster with Bowers usage continues. He ran a season low 17 routes in Week 4, bringing his season average to 27.0 (it was 33.2 in 2024). He also earned only 6 targets (0.35 TPRR) while recording a measly 2.2-yard aDOT. In the Raiders' defense, they dropped back to pass just 23 times in Week 4, with Ashton Jeanty running for more yards (138.0) than Geno Smith threw for (117.0). Now four weeks in, I am not convinced that Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly plan to make Bowers the focal point of this Raiders offense at any point this season.
Outlook: Don’t be afraid to tier down from Bowers if you’re roster is weak at other positions (Example: Tucker Kraft + Breece Hall)
21. Jalen Hurts, QB2, PHI
Hurts didn’t record a single passing yard in the second half in Week 4, going 0/8 through the air in that span. He’s averaging only 152.3 passing YPG, but has 40.0+ rushing yards in three out of four games this season. He’s also averaging 1 rushing TD per game, but we saw our first fake “tush push” occurrence in Week 4 as well.
22. Jayden Daniels, QB3, WAS
Daniels is expected to return to play in Week 5 against the Chargers after missing the last two games due to a hamstring injury. QBs are averaging 21.3 FPG against the Chargers through four weeks this season.
23. Lamar Jackson, QB4, BLT
The Ravens got embarrassed by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. Lamar turned the ball over twice, threw for only 147.0 yards, and threw one passing TD. He also “gave up” after suffering a hamstring injury in the 3rd quarter. The Ravens are likely to maintain a bottom-5 defense throughout the season, putting an immense reliance on Jackson as a dual-threat QB. Jackson is expected to miss 3-4 weeks because of that hamstring injury.
24. Ja’Marr Chase, WR7, CIN
Chase was held to 23 yards in Week 4, the 4th-fewest in a game in his career. He’s recorded 50 or fewer yards in three out of four games so far this season. Chase has finished top-30 in weekly WR scoring just 2 times in his 9 games with Jake Browning at QB.
25. Davante Adams, WR8, LAR
Adams currently ranks 3rd in red zone target share through the first four weeks (47.0%), while leading in total end zone targets (9). He maintains his 2nd overall ranking in average separation score (0.236) and route win rate (26.8%). He also ranks 3rd amongst WRs in XFP/G (18.1).
Outlook: Continue to try and Buy based on his elite route-running and red zone target share (Example: Jordan Mason + Zay Flowers)
26. Ashton Jeanty, RB12, LV
In his first game moving back to his college backfield stance, Jeanty recorded a 23-155-3 rushing line (34.5 fantasy points). For the first time all season, Jeanty saw over 2.50 yards before contact per attempt (2.95), and it was a massive difference maker. This breakout game was against the Bears' defense, however, who had allowed the 2nd-most YPC to opposing backs through the first three weeks (5.50 YPC).
27. Breece Hall, RB13, NYJ
Hall looked great in Week 4, recording 81 rushing yards on 14 attempts (5.79 YPC), 3 forced missed tackles, and 6 targets (resulting in 30 receiving yards). Braelon Allen siphoned a rush attempt inside the 10-yard line, and would fumble on that lone attempt (Allen would also suffer an injury in this game). After being out-touched on rush attempts 4-to-3 by Allen in the first quarter, Hall would see 11 of the next 13 rush attempts after Allen’s injury.
Outlook: Buy based on his efficiency in Week 4 and the injury to Braelon Allen (Example: Khalil Shair + D’Andre Swift)
28. A.J. Brown, WR9, PHI
Brown has now scored fewer than 10.0 fantasy points in three out of the first four weeks this season. His 51.9% catch rate ranks 81st among WRs, and his 66.7% catchable target rate ranks 80th. The Eagles' passing offense ranks 22nd in EPA (-0.03), last in passing YPG (152.3), and total pass attempts (101). Kevin Patullo has decimated WR value for his team in just his first four games as the new OC.
Outlook: If you did not Sell after I recommended last week, all you can do is hold now and pray for better days
29. Rashee Rice, WR10, KC
Through the first four weeks, the Chiefs have the 5th-most pass attempts (166), the 12th-most passing yards (939), and the 10th-best EPA/Pass (0.13). This team has virtually no run game, and I expect Rice to return as their most efficient chain mover.
Outlook: This might be your last chance to Buy Rice, who is likely to earn a significant target share in a high-powered passing offense when he returns in Week 7 (Example: Kyren Williams + Marvin Harrison)
30. Rome Odunze, WR11, CHI
Through four weeks, Rome Odunze ranks 6th in end zone target share (56.0%). He leads all Bears WRs in air yard share by 24.5% (42.0%), target share by 9.8% (24.8%), Targets/G by 3.3 (8.3), TDs by 4 (5), and first-read target share by 12.9% (32.1%). Odunze has also scored in every game in 2025, and the last Bear to do so in at least each of the first four games of a season is Walter Payton (1986).
31. Kyren Williams, RB15, LAR
Despite being in a close game, where he was largely efficient (5.92 YPC), Williams earned only a 56.0% rushing snap share in Week 4. Fellow backfield mate Blake Corum saw 9 rush attempts (2.33 YPC) and 4 targets (on 20 fewer routes compared to Williams). The Rams had no rush attempts inside the 10-yard line, but it is clear through four weeks that they want Corum incorporated fairly heavily in the rushing offense.
Outlook: Continue to try to Sell based on the continued usage Blake Corum is seeing in this backfield (Example: Tetairoa McMillan)
32. Javonte Williams, RB16, DAL
Against one of the better defenses in the league (Packers), and without two of his starting offensive linemen, Williams looked great. He had a rushing line of 20-85-1 (4.25 YPC), earning 19 fantasy points (23.1 XFP). He continues to be a bell cow (80.6% snap share), in the 5th-highest scoring offense in the league (28.4).
33. Quinshon Judkins, RB17, CLE
Through his first three starts, Judkins is averaging 4.84 YPC (12th), 0.20 MTF/Att, and 2.96 YACO/Att (7th). His snap share has increased from 26.4% in Week 2, all the way up to 60.0% in Week 4. He’s also earning 3 Targets/G, and ranks 11th in XFP/G (16.5) among all RBs.
34. Kenneth Walker III, RB18, SEA
Mike McDonald and the Seahawks want a split backfield more than I wanted the green Mighty Morphin Power Ranger for Christmas when I was 6 years old. Walker has his fair share of negative runs, but he’s maintained a higher rushing success rate than Charbonnet, and a higher percentage of runs that go for a minimum of one or three yards (while being significantly more explosive) over the last two seasons. Yet, Charbonnet out-touched Walker inside the five-yard line three-to-one on Thursday night. I expect this backfield to continue to frustrate Walker owners.
Outlook: Buy based on the belief that talent will eventually win out if Walker continues to outperform Zach Charbonnet (Example: AJ Brown)
35. Cam Skattebo , RB19, NYG
Skattebo led all RBs with 25 rush attempts in Week 4, while ranking 3rd in XFP (23.4). He saw 5 carries inside the 10-yard line, and a 75.4% snap share as well. Over the past two weeks, he’s averaging 18.6 FPG (~RB8) on 20.3 XFP/G (~RB3). Jaxson Dart’s debut was promising, and while I doubt this team ranks top-10 in scoring, a bell cow role for Skattebo is all but guaranteed from here on out.
36. Courtland Sutton, WR12, DEN
Over his last 14 games, Sutton has been one of the most reliable WRs in all of fantasy football, averaging 17.3 FPG (~WR9), and scoring double-digits in 93% of those games. Sutton is currently the WR12, but ranks 27th in air yard share (34.1%), 30th in target share (19.7%), 26th in first-read target share (25.8%), and 32nd in red zone target share (20.0%) through four weeks.
Outlook: Hot take of the week. Shop Around/Sell High on Sutton based on the concerted effort Sean Payton is making to get other WRs (Troy Franklin) more involved in the passing game each week. (Example: Quinshon Judkins or Javonte Williams)
37. Tetairoa McMillan, WR13, CAR
Dave Canales and Bryce Young continually prove to be the most infuriating HC/QB combo in the league. McMillan has seen at least 8 targets in each of his first four NFL starts, but has only 3 end zone targets total, and has yet to score his first NFL TD. Out of QBs to play all four games this season, Young ranks 2nd to last in pass attempts deep out wide (11), with the lowest completion percentage on those throws (18.2%). McMillan has the 12th-highest separation score against man coverage (0.313).
Outlook: We’re still Buying based on his talent and the belief he will start scoring TDs soon enough (Example: Alvin Kamara)
38. Garrett Wilson, WR14, NYJ
Garett Wilson was a bad offensive DPI call away from a 30.0+ fantasy point evening in Week 4. Through 4 weeks, Wilson ranks 2nd in target share (33.6%), 5th in air yard share (46.9%), 1st in first-read target share (46.9%), and 5th in FPG (19.0).
39. Drake London, WR15, ATL
The coaching changes seemed to have worked, as London bounced back in Week 4 with a 9-110-1 receiving line (25.0 fantasy points). He earned a 55.6% first-read target share and saw increased usage out of the slot (44.0%), which proved to be a lucrative role. London recorded 0.62 FP/RR out of the slot in 2024, vs 0.52 out wide.
40. Zay Flowers, WR16, BLT
With Lamar Jackson likely to miss 2-3 games with his hamstring injury, the entirety of the offense is being downgraded in terms of fantasy value. The one silver lining for Flowers is that backup QB Cooper Rush targeted him 5 times on his 11 pass attempts in the 4th quarter last week.
41. Emeka Egbuka, WR17, TB
Through four weeks, Egbuka ranks 21st in Targets/G (7.8), 12th in receiving YPG (70.5), 2nd in TDs (4), 27th in first-read target share (25.8%), and 19th in XFP/G (14.2). He ranks 36th in red zone target share (18.8%) and 21st in end zone targets (2). The talent is 100% there, but he ranks 82nd in average separation score (-0.008), and 46th in route win rate (12.3%). Does he keep up this level of production with Chris Godwin ramping up, and Mike Evans likely returning in a few weeks?
Outlook: Shop around if you are desperate for depth or have the assets to tier up from Emeka Egbuka (Example: Kenneth Walker + Chris Olave)
42. George Pickens, WR18, DAL
Pickens went nuclear in the Cowboys' first game without CeeDee Lamb, against a well-respected Packers defense. He put up an 8-134-2 receiving line (33.4 fantasy points), which was the second-best outing of his career. He's tied for the lead in end zone targets (9) through four weeks, in the most pass-heavy offense in the league.
43. Tyler Warren, TE3, IND
Warren has the most yards (263) by a rookie TE through the first four weeks in NFL history. He bounced back in a big way in Week 4 with 18.3 fantasy points, oh, and he also earned two goal-line carries (scoring on one of them). He’s currently 4th among all TEs in targets (27), FP/RR (0.49), and XFP/G (12.3).
44. Xavier Worthy, WR19, KC
In his return from a shoulder injury, Worthy earned 8 targets, resulting in 83 receiving yards and 17.1 fantasy points. He saw 2 end zone targets, 4 deep targets, and a 27.6% first-read target share as well. He tacked on 2 rush attempts for 38 yards, bringing his total scrimmage yards to 121 (2nd-highest total of his career).
Outlook: Sell High based on Worthy’s soft matchup in Week 4 and Rashee Rice returning soon (Example: Breece Hall or Cam Skattebo)
45. Jaylen Waddle, WR20, MIA
It’s a tiny sample size, but in the one game Tyreek Hill had missed in his Dolphins career, Waddle recorded an 8-142-1 receiving line (28.2 fantasy points). In an even smaller sample size, Waddle earned a 30.0% target share after Hill went down in Week 4.
46. Ladd McConkey, WR21, LAC
McConkey is officially the WR3 at best on the Chargers, and his usage in this offense has been dwindling each week. His number of receptions, receiving yards, YPRR, first-read target share, and FPG have gone down every week thus far this season. The Quentin Johnston breakout is for real, and unless Keenan Allen gets injured, I don’t see a realistic path for Ladd to put up WR1 numbers any time soon.
47. Quentin Johnston, WR22, LAC
The Johnston breakout is officially more than real, and he is very likely going to be a league winner in 2025. Through four weeks, he leads the Chargers' WRs in air yards share (39.5%), target share (24.2%), receiving YPG (84.3), TDs (4), YPRR (2.19), first-read target share (29.2%), and FPG (19.9).
48. George Kittle, TE4, SF
Kittle is expected to be back in Week 6, returning to a brutally injured 49ers receiving corps. Kittle recorded 12.5 fantasy points on just 12 routes in Week 1 prior to suffering a hamstring injury.
49. Jake Ferguson, TE5, DAL
Ferguson is currently the TE1 (15.6 FPG), and leads all TEs in Targets/G (9.8), TPRR (0.30), and XFP/G (16.2).
50. DK Metcalf, WR23, PIT
Metcalf made me eat my words in Week 4, popping off for 23.6 fantasy points on 6.9 XFP. He only garnered 5 targets, with 63.6% of his fantasy production coming on an 80-yard TD catch and run in the 2nd quarter. Metcalf still recorded a measly 9.5% route win rate in this game.
Outlook: This is probably your last chance to Sell relatively “High” on Metcalf (Example: JK Dobbins or Tucker Kraft)
