For those of you who aren’t afraid to make trades and thirst for data-supported methods to improve your team throughout the season, this weekly series is for you! I’ll supply you with quick hits for our rest-of-season top-50 players, their trade outlook, and possible trade packages you can offer.
Current Trends
Working the waiver wire hard every week continues to be one of the most effective ways to increase your win percentage, especially when targeting RBs. 40.0% of the top-10 scoring RBs in Week 5 were likely available on your waiver wire at some point this season: Rico Dowdle (32.4 fantasy points), Rachaad White (23.1 fantasy points), Kareem Hunt (18.7 fantasy points), and Michael Carter (18.3 fantasy points)
Early league-winners have begun to emerge at the WR position, and the top candidates are nearly all fresh-faced youngsters. Four of the best ADP values at the WR position are 24 years old or younger (Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Emeka Egbuka, and Rome Odunze). These four receivers have yet to score fewer than 12.9 fantasy points in a single game this season
Attacking the waiver wire has also been extremely lucrative for the TE position. 11 out of the top-25 TE fantasy performances this season have come from players that were likely available on your waiver wire at one point or another this season (44.0%). 50.0% of the top-10 scoring TEs over the last two weeks are recent waiver wire acquisitions: Darren Waller (18.3 FPG), AJ Barner (18.3 FPG), Theo Johnson (16.0 FPG), Jake Tonges (16.0 FPG), and Mason Taylor (14.6 FPG)
This is one of those rare moments where each one of our top-4 ROS QBs is affordable relative to their ADP. Josh Allen has been outproduced by Matthew Stafford over the last four weeks, Lamar Jackson is unlikely to return until Week 8 (and then faces two abysmal defenses), Jalen Hurts put up season-high passing numbers and career-low rushing numbers in Week 5, and Jayden Daniels' season-high fantasy performance so far is 20.1 points.
This is just a reminder that one of the best ways to build up trade value on your roster, and have the necessary depth to take risks or make sizable upgrades, is going to be by researching and acquiring the best waiver wire assets available each week.
1. Puka Nacua, WR1, LAR
Through five games, Nacua is on pace for an NFL record 1,999 receiving yards. The QB for the previous two receiving yard leaders in NFL history (Calvin Johnson & Cooper Kupp)? Mathew Stafford. Nacua has yet to record an end zone target this season, but has now scored in back-to-back games. He currently leads all WRs in FPG by 4.3 (26.8).
2. Christian McCaffrey, RB1, SF
The mind-boggling usage and production continue for McCaffrey. He’s yet to score a rushing TD and averages an abysmal 3.26 YPC, but is on pace for 133 receptions, 173 targets, 1,316 receiving yards, and 7 receiving TDs. By his rushing production alone, he’s the RB45; by his receiving production alone, he's the WR5.
3. Jonathan Taylor, RB2, IND
Taylor has now scored 3 rushing TDs in one game on two separate occasions this season. Over the last three weeks, Taylor has earned 13 of the 16 rush Colts’ rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (72.2%). He ranks 2nd in FPG (24.3), and XFP/G (22.2) through five weeks.
4. Bijan Robinson, RB3, ATL
Cheers to those who survived their Week 5 matchups without Robinson. In two of his next three matchups, he’ll face defenses that rank bottom-3 in YPC allowed (Bills and Dolphins). After his bye week last season, Robinson saw a 27.9% increase in his fantasy production, averaging 23.4 FPG over that stretch.
5 Saquon Barkley, RB4, PHI
In Week 5, and for the first time all season, Barkley averaged over 4.0 YPC. The problem? OC Kevin Patullo refused to reward that efficiency, giving only 6 rush attempts to Barkley on the day (just 1 in the second half). One small silver lining, the offensive line performed the best we had seen all season on those 6 rush attempts (3.17 yards before contact per attempt). Still, Barkley has just a 2.4% explosive run rate this season, and those types of runs accounted for 8.2 of his FPG in 2024.
Outlook: Shop around based on this anemic offense hamstringing Barkley’s ability to make explosive plays. (Example: Barkley + lower tier asset for Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Jahmyr Gibbs)
6. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB5, DET
It was a game in which we knew David Montgomery was going to be the focal point of the rushing offense (played with a lead most of the game, and the win was dedicated to his sister), Gibbs still recorded a very respectable 16.7 fantasy points. Through 5 weeks, Gibbs has earned 70 rush attempts to Montgomery’s 61, and seen 23 targets to Montgomery’s 8. He’s also recorded a snap share 20.0% higher than Montgomery’s (60.5% to 40.5%).
7. De’Von Achane, RB6, MIA
Achane was stymied by the Panthers' defensive front in Week 5, earning only 16 rushing yards on 10 attempts (1.60 YPC). He maintained his incredibly reliable fantasy floor thanks to his receiving production, with a 6-30-1 line (15.0 of his 16.6 fantasy points). Achane has earned a 20.3% target share this season (ranking 2nd among RBs), and has amassed 14.1 XFP/G through the air alone. He is essentially the WR2 and RB1 in this Miami offense.
Outlook: Buy based on the nearly unparalleled PPR upside Achane has with Tyreek Hill out for the season (Example: Kyren Williams + DeVonta Smith)
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR2, DET
After a disappointing Week 1 performance (8.5 fantasy points), St. Brown has scored 18.0+ fantasy points in each of the next four games. Through five weeks, he ranks 2nd in FPG (22.5), 3rd in FP/RR (0.79), 9th in target share (27.4%), 4th in YPRR (2.87), and 1st in receiving TDs (6).
9. James Cook, RB7, BUF
Game script and efficiency went largely against Cook in Week 5. He averaged just 3.27 YPC on his 15 rush attempts, while the Bills played from behind the majority of the night. In his defense, the Patriots' have allowed the 5th-fewest rushing YPG this season (85.6), and 4th-fewest YPC (3.51). Cook still saw 70.5% of the snaps in Week 5, and 77.3% of the rushing share.
10. Josh Jacobs, RB8, GB
Coming out of his bye, Jacobs ranks 9th in FPG (18.1), 3rd in XFP/G (18.4), and 4th in rushing TDs (seeing 100% of rush attempts inside the 5-yard line). However, he ranks 28th in YPC (3.33), thanks to his seeing the 24th-worst yards before contact per attempt (1.55 yards). Green Bay’s OL ranks 30th in run-blocking, but may see the return of two key linemen in Week 6, and Jacobs has one of the most favorable RB schedules over the remainder of the season.
Outlook: Buy based on the OL improvement we are likely to see in combination with an incredibly easy RB schedule post-bye for Jacobs. (Example: David Montgomery + Zay Flowers)
11. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR3, SEA
Smith-Njigba bounced back in a big way in Week 5, scoring a season-high 27.2 fantasy points. Through five weeks, Smith-Njigba ranks 2nd in target share (31.4%), 1st in YPRR (4.34), 3rd in first-read target share (42.1%), and 2nd in FP/RR (0.81). Sam Darnold also continues to impress, ranking 3rd in passer rating (114.8), 1st in ANY/A (8.98), 1st in completion percentage over expected (11.2%), and 1st in highly accurate throw rate (64.2%).
12. Justin Jefferson, WR4, MIN
Jefferson had arguably his best performance of the season in Week 5. He earned 11 targets on a 31.4% target share, recording 123.0 receiving yards (3.24 YPRR), a 35.7% first-read target share, 19.3 fantasy points, and 21.9 XFP. Jefferson is now averaging 18.1 FPG with Carson Wentz at QB vs. the 13.0 FPG he averaged with JJ McCarthy.
13. Ja’Marr Chase, WR5, CIN
Garbage time was in full effect for the Bengals' offense in Week 5, and owners couldn’t have been happier about it. Chase scored a measly 7.1 fantasy points through the first three quarters, but finished the game with 21.9 fantasy points in the 4th quarter. The Bengals have traded for Joe Flacco, a 40-year-old QB whom the Browns had no problem dishing to a division rival. Anything is likely better than Jake Browning leading this offense, but Flacco won’t solve HC Zac Taylor’s horrible play calling, or the OL ranking dead last in nearly every metric.
Outlook: Shop around based on the likelihood that Joe Flacco doesn’t survive behind this bottom-tier Bengals OL (Example: Jaylen Waddle + Breece Hall)
14. Nico Collins, WR6, HST
Stroud has had by far his best two games of the year in the last two weeks - 238.5 passing YPG, 139.2 passer rating, and 6 TDs. In those two games, Collins has recorded the following: 76.1% route share, 18.6% target share, 20.0% first-read target share, 1 TD, 14.0 FPG, and 8.8 XFP/G.
15. CeeDee Lamb, WR7, DAL
Lamb has missed the last two games due to a high ankle sprain, and still has more yards this season (222) than AJ Brown (194). It’s been reported that Lamb could be back in the next two weeks. In his absence, Dak Prescott is averaging 278.0 passing YPG, a 128.7 passer rating, and has thrown 7 TDs.
Outlook: Buy based on the imminent return of Lamb to one of the the most high-powered passing attacks in the league (Example: AJ Brown + Marvin Harrison)
16. Rome Odunze, WR8, CHI
In the offseason, I noted a trend in which talented players have experienced a “post-bye production bump” in each of the last two years. Odunze was already top-5 in FPG (19.9), but I believe he could ascend even higher, thanks to having a QB that already ranks top-12 in pass attempts and passing yards per game.
17. Derrick Henry, RB9, BLT
Henry earned a pathetic 2.20 YPC in Week 5 without Lamar Jackson. Henry has now gone four straight games without exceeding 50 rushing yards (he ran for fewer than 50 rushing yards only once in 2024). He faces the Rams in Week 6, who are allowing the 3rd-fewest YPC (3.49) in the league. His schedule eases up after that, with matchups against the poor run defenses of Chicago and Miami, which will hopefully coincide with the return of Lamar Jackson.
Outlook: Buy at his season-low value, with the expectation he bounces back following his Week 7 bye (Example: Xavier Worthy + Chuba Hubbard)
18. Ashton Jeanty, RB10, LV
Jeanty looked solid once again in Week 5, but a negative game script limited his production. He rushed for 67 yards on 14 attempts (4.79 YPC), and earned 6 targets, resulting in 42 receiving yards. The bad news is that Geno Smith continues to play like a CFL-level QB, and the Raiders lost one of their best offensive linemen to IR, making Jeanty’s outlook rather murky (the Raiders are still favored in two of their next three games).
19. Josh Allen, QB1, BUF
After his 38.8 fantasy point performance in Week 1, Allen has now averaged just 20.5 FPG in Weeks 2-5 (~QB9). In that span, he’s been outscored by Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, and Drake Maye.
Outlook: Buy based on the fact the last four games is likely a season-low stretch for Allen’s fantasy production (Example: Justin Fields + Quentin Johnston)
20. Breece Hall, RB11, NYJ
Hall was yet again the victim of a negative game script (I am sensing a theme here), but was highly productive with his 14 rush attempts (113 yards). He also ran a season-high 19 routes, resulting in 4 targets and 42 receiving yards. Through five weeks, Hall has the 2nd-highest percentage of rush attempts going for 5.0+ yards (43.9%).
Outlook: Buy based on his efficiency and reliability paired with weekly upside (Example: Alvin Kamarar + DK Metcalf)
21. Jalen Hurts, QB2, PHI
OC Kevin Patullo finally let Jalen Hurts unload the football in Week 5, and Hurts would finish with a season-high 280 passing yards (and 2 TDs). However, his 38 pass attempts came at a fantasy cost, as Hurts recorded a career-low 3 rushing yards. He finished with a modest, by his standard, 19.5 fantasy points. His passing performance was extremely encouraging for his ROS outlook.
22. Lamar Jackson, QB3, BLT
Jackson is expected to return after the team’s Week 7 bye. The Ravens' two opponents following their bye? The Chicago Bears and the Miami Dolphins. Those two defenses are allowing the most and second-most YPC to their opponents (6.15 and 5.58, respectively).
23. Davante Adams, WR9, LAR
Unfortunately, Adams continues to draw top defensive coverage focus from opposing DBs. He still managed to put up another solid performance in Week 5 (13.8 fantasy points), earning 11 targets, with a 25.8% first-read target share. Adams remains a positive regression candidate, with 19.4 XFP in Week 5, and is now averaging 18.3 XFP/G through five games (ranking 3rd among all WRs).
24. Jayden Daniels, QB4, WAS
In his return to action, Daniels was not afraid to take shots, recording a 19.2% deep pass throw rate in Week 5 (60.0% catchable throw rate on those attempts). His knee didn’t seem to bother him too much, as he tacked on 39 rushing yards. The return of Terry McLaurin could elevate Daniel's ceiling back into the top-3 QB range, but Deebo Samuel has stepped up in a big way in his absence.
Outlook: Buy based on the fact Terry McLaurin is likely to return soon and this is the lowest we’ll see Daniels be valued all season (Example: Justin Herbert + Marvin Harrison)
25. Emeka Egbuka, WR10, TB
Sometimes, we overthink and put too much weight on raw data when evaluating a young player. And more often than not, the eye test is more valuable than any stat we can conjure, and I (along with many others) should not have considered Egbuka a sell-high candidate. His 102.4 fantasy points through his first five starts rank 3rd all-time among WRs. The metrics confirm this man is on track to be a generational talent, and the eye test confirms he has top-5 WR upside this season.
26. Rashee Rice, WR11, KC
If the Rice owner in your league is 0-5 or 1-4, this is your absolute last chance to buy. It’s been rumored that the Chiefs still view Rice as their clear WR1, who should be a huge difference maker in their offense when he returns (shocking news). Rice was averaging 21.3 FPG through three weeks in 2024, and he will return to an offense in which Patrick Mahomes ranks 9th in passing YPG (251.4), but only 26th in completion percentage (63.4) through five games. No Chiefs WR ranks among the top-32 in 1D/RR.
Outlook: Buy (Example: Travis Etienne)
27. Garrett Wilson, WR12, NYJ
The connection between Wilson and Justin Fields should remain lucrative for fantasy owners all season. Through five weeks, Wilson ranks 3rd in “Catchable XFP”, while also remaining a positive regression candidate. Wilson is also one of only three WRs to lead their team in receiving yards in every week this season.
28. Courtland Sutton, WR13, DEN
Trading Sutton for Quinshon Judkins or Javonte Williams last week (as I advised) may have been a win-win situation, but this is the last time I doubt Sutton. In a matchup against one of the best shutdown corners in the league (Quinyon Mitchell), who had never allowed more than 2 receptions or 49 receiving yards, Sutton put up 6 receptions for 81 yards on him.
29. Kyren Williams, RB12, LAR
It was a whirlwind kind of night for the Rams' backfield in Week 5, with Blake Corum botching a shovel pass and dropping two very catchable targets early in the game. Williams had seen his rushing share dwindle in each week up until this game, with a season-low 56.0% in Week 4. After Corum’s faux pas, Williams saw every rush attempt over the remainder of the game. He had a costly game-losing fumble in the 4th quarter, but ended the night with a season-high 32.1 fantasy points.
30. Javonte Williams, RB13, DAL
There should be zero doubt that Williams is a top-10 RB ROS. Williams has now scored over 14.0 FPG in every week this season, ranks as the RB3 (20.7 FPG), and is one of only 3 RBs to have gained positive yards on 90%+ of his rush attempts (92.0%).
31. Quinshon Judkins, RB14, CLE
Judkins continues to impress as the RB1 for the Browns, recording 23 rush attempts for 110.0 yards in Week 5. 13.8 fantasy points was a respectable level of production, but Judkins was one holding penalty away from a 20.0+ fantasy point outing. He will remain a solid RB2 the rest of the season, with weekly RB1 upside.
Outlook: Buy based on how dominant Judkins has looked so far this season (Example: D’Andre Swift + Zay Flowers)
32. Trey McBride, TE1, ARZ
It was a complete disaster-level meltdown for the Cardinals and their offense in Week 5. McBride still maintained his elite target share, now seeing at least 7 targets in every game this season, but failed to reach double-digit PPR points for the first time this season (9.1 fantasy points). McBride is now the first receiver in NFL history to see at least 250 receptions and fewer than 8 receiving TDs.
33. Bucky Irving, RB15, TB
On top of his sprained foot injury, Irving is also dealing with a shoulder injury (which he did not report to the team until last Tuesday). He’s expected to remain sidelined for at least another two weeks.
34. Brock Bowers, TE2, LV
Bowers has been playing through a PCL injury and a bone bruise on his knee that has negatively affected his performance and kept him out in Week 5. Doctors suggest rest as the only remedy for this injury, and the severity of the PCL injury will determine how long he will need to rest. He is currently week-to-week, and the Raiders have their bye in 3 weeks.
35. Cam Skattebo, RB16, NYG
The return of Tyrone Tracy this week could lead to a slight downgrade in Skattebo’s value going forward. Since Malik Nabers went down, Skattebo has commanded a 17.6% target share in the Giants offense, but Tracy ran nearly twice as many routes as him earlier in the season. He also had a goal-line fumble in Week 5 (that the Giants didn’t immediately penalize him for), and that usage is his most fantasy-lucrative attribute.
36. Tetairoa McMillan, WR14, CAR
McMillan is one of the other three WRs to lead his team in receiving yards in every game this season. If there was ever the perfect opportunity for a breakout game (and his first TD of the season), it would be against the Cowboys defense in Week 6, who have allowed the most receptions (131), receiving YPG (304.0), and 2nd-most passing TDs (12) through five weeks.
Outlook: This is the last “Buy” recommendation I will issue for McMillan. If he doesn’t break out this week against the Cowboys piss poor defense, I’ll view him no better than a middling WR2 for fantasy (Example: Chuba Hubbard + DJ Moore)
37. Tyler Warren, TE3, IND
Warren is the first TE in NFL history to record 300+ receiving yards and 2+ TDs in his first five starts. Through those five games, he ranks 3rd in TPRR (0.24), 5th in Targets/G (6.2), 2nd in YPRR (2.36), 3rd in YAC/Rec (7.13), 2nd in 1D/RR (0.115), and 2nd in FPG (13.3)
38. Zay Flowers, WR15, BLT
The absence of Lamar Jackson will continue to hinder Flowers, who put up a modest 5 receptions for 72 receiving yards. The good news is that he remains hyper-efficient, as he only ran 21 routes in Week 5 (3.43 YPRR). There have been reports that Snoop Huntley might take over at QB in Week 6, who can’t lead this offense to look any worse than it did last week.
39. Drake London, WR16, ATL
The coaching changes seemed to have worked, as London bounced back in Week 4 with a 9-110-1 receiving line (25.0 fantasy points). He earned a 55.6% first-read target share and saw increased usage out of the slot (44.0%), which proved to be a lucrative role. London recorded 0.62 FP/RR out of the slot in 2024, vs 0.52 out wide (this is the same blurb from last week as London was on a bye).
40. A.J. Brown, WR17, PHI
Brown was out-targeted (10 to 8) and out-produced (114.0 receiving yards to 43.0) by DeVonta Smith in a game where Jalen Hurts recorded a season-high number of passing yards (280.0). Brown also showed a visual lack of effort on a route that could have resulted in a 50+ yard TD. Don’t worry, though; he, Barkley, and Hurts had a very productive multiple-hour-long conversation this week.
41. George Pickens, WR18, DAL
Fun fact: Pickens had never had more than 5 TDs in any season with the Steelers, and he already has 5 in as many games with the Cowboys. In the two games with CeeDee Lamb, Pickens has recorded a 21.7% target share, 0.23 TPRR, 2.89 YPRR, 4 end zone targets, a 32.5% first-read target share, 23.6 FPG (on 14.8 XFP/G). These metrics are significantly better across the board when compared to the two games when Lamb was healthy.
Outlook: Shop around based on Lamb returning soon and the likelihood we see Pickens experience a decline in how heavily he has been outperforming his XFP/G (Example: Quinshon Judkins or Ashton Jeanty)
42. Xavier Worthy, WR19, KC
Worthy had a fairly large role in Week 5, despite being questionable heading into this matchup against the Jaguars. He led all Chiefs receivers in routes (37), and targets (9), but was out-produced by Tyquan Thornton (90 receiving yards to Worthy’s 42), on 17 fewer routes. Thornton has emerged as the main deep threat for the Chiefs, and with Rashe Rice set to return in two weeks, I worry a little bit about Worthy’s weekly reliability.
Outlook: Sell based on the fact we can likely expect Worthy’s role to diminish when Rashee Rice returns (Example: JK Dobbins, Breece Hall, or Bill Croskey-Merritt)
43. Jaylen Waddle, WR20, MIA
As the small sample size we discussed last week predicted. Waddle assumed the clear WR1 role in the absence of Tyreek Hill. In Week 5, Waddle recorded a 46.0% air yard share, 25.0% target share, 0.29 TPRR, 3.55 YPRR, 110.0 receiving yards, a 34.6% first-read target share, and 23.0 fantasy points (all season-highs). Waddle has top-15 upside ROS.
Outlook: Buy based on his ascension to a WR1 role immediately following the loss of Tyreek Hill (Example: AJ Brown)
44. George Kittle, TE4, SF
In Kittle’s absence, 49ers backup TE, Jake Tonges, has scored 14.8 and 17.1 fantasy points in his last two games. Kittle scored 12.5 fantasy points in just 20 snaps in Week 1. The 49ers plan to activate him from IR in the next week, and Kittle is expected to return in Week 7 vs. the Falcons.
45. Ladd McConkey, WR21, LAC
McConkey finally had a “respectable” fantasy performance in Week 5, finishing with 14.9 fantasy points. Keenan Allen still led the team in most efficiency and target share metrics, but McConkey’s 2 end zone targets were encouraging. There is an argument to be made that Herbert may need to rely on McConkey more in the coming weeks, thanks to a severely depleted OL and Omarion Hampton heading to IR.
Outlook: Buy based on his price remaining relatively low and the likelihood Justin Herbert will need to release the ball a lot quicker going forward (Example: Chase Brown)
46. Quentin Johnston, WR22, LAC
Johnston finally fell back down to earth, earning only a 12.1% target share, resulting in just 7.9 fantasy points in Week 5 (he also fumbled once). In contrast to McConkey, who I can see benefitting from Justin Herbert’s need to release the ball much quicker, I worry Johnston will suffer with his deeper route tree (team-high aDOT of 12.3 yards).
47. Travis Etienne, RB17, JAX
Through five weeks, Etienne ranks 4th in rushing YPG (88.6), 2nd in YPC (5.75), 9th in explosive run rate (6.5%), and is seeing the most yards before contact per attempt in the league (3.16 yards). He’s seen over a 60.0% snap share in four of five weeks this season, but ranks 23rd in XFP/G (12.2). Etienne saw only 3 of the Jaguars 9 rush attempts in the red zone in Week 5 (33.3%).
48. Jake Ferguson, TE5, DAL
Ferguson remains the TE1 through five weeks, leading the league with 17.2 FPG and 16.7 XFP/G. Even when CeeDee Lamb was healthy (Weeks 1 & 2), Ferguson ranked 2nd in XFP/G (15.1).
49. Michael Pittman, WR23, IND
Through five weeks, Pittman ranks 21st in target share (22.2%), 18th in catch rate (76.5%), 3rd in TDs (4), 7th in 1D/RR (0.122), 13 in FPG (15.5), and 40th in XFP/G (11.2).
50. Kenneth Walker III, RB18, SEA
One of the main issues Walker has, which might be preventing him from being a bellcow role, is his inability to hit the holes correctly in man/gap rushing schemes. This is one of the only plausible explanations, given that Walker is averaging 6.48 YPC and 1.5 YPT vs. Zach Charbonnet’s 2.36 YPC and 4.3 YPT over their last three games together. Even with a possible “vision issue”, Walke’s 10.3% explosive run rate ranks 3rd (Charbonnet’s 2.1% rate ranks 28th).
