For those of you who aren’t afraid to make trades and thirst for data-supported methods to better your team throughout the season, this weekly series is for you. I’ll supply you with quick hits for our rest-of-season top-50 players and their trade outlook.
Week 3 is where trends begin to develop, breakout players blossom, and 0-2 managers start to feel a little heat. Even if you’re not fully ready to commit to trading this early on, it doesn’t hurt to put feelers out and start gauging the value desperate managers are placing on their players.
Current Trends
Buy low on offensive players who just saw their fantasy output smothered by the Green Bay defense
Don’t panic on rookie talent that has not produced yet. These things can take time, and patience is often rewarded
You don’t need to overreact to every top-tier talent that’s had less than a stellar start, but name value can still carry massive weight in most leagues
We want to target talented players in above-average offenses who have underperformed relative to their expected fantasy production
1. Bijan Robinson, RB1, ATL
Watching Bijan Robinson play football is a gift from God. Robinson recorded absolutely absurd rushing metrics in Week 2: 6.50 YPC, 13.6% explosive run rate, 10 forced missed tackles, and 3.45 YACO/Att. How did the Falcons reward the one player responsible for all of their offensive production? They gave Tyler Allgeier their only 2 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line.
2. Saquon Barkley, RB2, PHI
The Eagles' offense is one of the most uninspiring units in the league. Barkley saw 84.8% of the RB rush attempts (up from 69.0% in Week 1), but is only averaging 3.70 YPC and a 2.5% explosive run rate in his first two games (5.81 & 7.2%, respectively, in 2024). This Eagles offense looks to have lost their explosive play ability with the departure of Kellen Moore.
3 Christian McCaffrey, RB3, SF
We saw the 49ers' offense stay in stride with Mac Jones at QB, but saw McCaffrey record only 20 touches (compared to 32 in Week 1). McCaffrey still leads all RBs in XFP/G (24.1) and target share (23.0%) through two weeks.
4. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB4, DET
Gibbs had a stellar bounce-back game on the ground against an abysmal Bears defense in Week 2 (12-94-1). His 7.83 YPC and 16.7% explosive run rate would rank 2nd among all RBs, and his 6.75 yards before contact per attempt would rank 1st. The Green Bay defensive smothering buy-low window on Gibbs has passed.
5. CeeDee Lamb, WR1, DAL
Through two weeks, Lamb ranks 2nd in XFP/G (23.5), and 12th in fantasy points under expectation (-4.4 FPUE). He leads the league in Targets/G (12.0), and ranks 3rd in receiving YPG (111.0). I can smell the incoming boom performance for Lamb against the Bears this week.
Outlook: Continue to send offers before he puts up 30.0+ fantasy points on the Bears (Example: James Cook + DK Metcalf/Marvin Harrison for CeeDee Lamb)
6. Puka Nacua, WR2, LAR
I’m not religious, but I pray for Matthew Stafford’s continued health every night. After 2 weeks, Nacua ranks 2nd in TPRR (0.43), 1st in receptions (18), 4th in yards (221), 1st in YPRR (4.70), and 1st in FPG (25.4). All without a single receiving TD.
7. De’Von Achane, RB5, MIA
Achane led all RBs in Week 2 in route participation (83.8%) and targets (10). Amongst all receivers through 2 weeks, Achane ranks top-32 in receptions (11), receiving yards (112), TPRR (0.28), and YPRR (2.24).
8. Derrick Henry, RB6, BLT
The Browns made a concerted effort to stop Henry in Week 2, stacking the box on 10 out of Henry’s 11 rush attempts (-0.45 yards before contact per attempt). Other teams might realize that Lamar Jackson has the highest passer rating in NFL history, and that focusing solely on Henry is a zero-sum game.
9. Jonathan Taylor, RB7, IND
Daniel Jones has miraculously opened things up for this Colts offense. Taylor is seeing stacked boxes on only 23.3% of his rush attempts, and currently leads the league in rushing yards (118.0). His 5.49 YPC ranks 3rd, while his 20.9 XFP/G ranks 2nd. Jones has been good for 57.1% of the rush attempts inside the five-yard line, but Taylor has found another way to raise his fantasy ceiling, running the 8th most routes among RBs.
10. Malik Nabers, WR3, NYG
Much like last season, Nabers leads the league in most volume-based metrics through 2 Weeks: XFP/G (25.7), Targets/G (12.0), Air Yards (410), and Receiving Yards (238). Russell Wilson showed the type of value boost he can provide for Nabers with a league-high 11 deep pass attempts in Week 2. He also had one of the most insane TD catches I’ve ever seen (basically “blindfolded”).
11. Ja’Marr Chase, WR4, CIN
With Joe Burrow out for the next 3 months, Jake Browning will lead this Bengals team for the foreseeable future. Chase recorded 22.8 of his 36.5 fantasy points after Browning took over in the second quarter in Week 2, and the last time Browning was the starter (7 games in 2023), Chase averaged 13.4 FPG (11.5 XFP/G) in their FULL games together. Chase only earned a 19.4% target share, with a measly 0.21 TPRR in that span.
Outlook: Hold
12. Justin Jefferson, WR5, MIN
JJ McCarthy has looked like the worst QB in the league in 7 out of his first 8 quarters of NFL football. We have “good news” that McCarthy is essentially “benched” due to an ankle injury, sidelining him for 2-4 weeks. Carson Wentz will be the starting QB going forward, whose only NFL start in the last two years came in Week 18 last season (with the Chiefs). Anything is better than McCarthy’s 2nd-worst 67.2 passer rating or his 31st-ranked completion percentage (58.5%).
13. Ashton Jeanty, RB5, LV
I watched every one of Jeanty’s rush attempts and targets in Week 2, and he’s one of my favorite “buy low” candidates right now. He ranks 3rd in fantasy points under expectation (-4.4), while recording 85.7% of the Raiders' rush attempts so far. He ranks 6th in missed tackles forced (7), while seeing the 5th lowest yards before contact per attempt (0.67).
Outlook: Buy at what might be his lowest value, and based on his usage/FPUE (Example: James Conner + DJ Moore for Ashton Jeanty)
14. Bucky Irving, RB8, TB
Irving maintained the bell cow role in Week 2 with a 73.6% snap share, while seeing 23 total touches, resulting in 18.1 fantasy points. Bucky did “concede” 12 touches to Rachaad White, which would normally be a non-factor based on his own volume, but White impressed heavily with those touches, and now leads the league in rushing success rate (67.0%), while earning 6.58 YPC to Irving’s 3.48.
Outlook: With the Buccaneers possibly out 3 offensive linemen this week, look to send buy offers once Tristan Wirfs returns to the lineup
15. Nico Collins, WR6, HST
We saw some of that 2024 Weeks 1-5 Collins (who was the Overall WR1 at that time) in the Texans' first drive last night (Collins scored a 29-yard TD pass), but that was short-lived. Through two weeks, Stroud ranks 22nd in deep throw attempts (6), despite having the 12th-highest time to throw (2.70 seconds). The Texans' OL is visibly bad, evident in Stroud’s 45.3% pressure rate over expectation, but Collins ranks in the 92nd percentile in route win rate (21.8%), yet he’s “earned” only 14 total (29th).
Outlook: Hold
16. Josh Jacobs, RB9, GB
Jacobs has 42 of the Packers’ 44 rush attempts so far (95.5%), while averaging 3.5 per game inside the 10-yard line (28.6% TD Rate). He’s now scored a TD in 11 straight games (NFL record is 12). Unfortunately, he’s only seen 1 target on his 26 routes run (0.04 TPRR), a far cry from his 0.19 TPRR last season.
Outlook: Buy based on his usage and reliability, which usually comes at a premium for the RB position. (Example: Kyren Williams + Jameson Williams for Josh Jacobs)
17. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR7, DET
The downfall of the Lions' offense without Ben Johnson might have been greatly exaggerated. That, or the Bears' defense is that much worse than the Packers’. St. Brown had recorded 30.0+ fantasy point performances multiple times in each of the three prior seasons, and we just witnessed the 2nd-highest scoring outing of his career in Week 2.
Outlook: We saw St. Brown put up this kind of performance twice last year, which was also surrounded by more weekly outputs closer to his Week 1 production. If you have the depth, I’d look to upgrade St. Brown for one of our top-3 WRs (Example: Amon-Ra St. Brown + D’Andre Swift for Malik Nabers)
18. Brock Bowers, TE1, LV
It was clear that Bowers was not at 100% in Week 2 thanks to his knee injury, and Pete Carroll confirmed as much (as well as their desperate need for him to be healthy). It’s safe to say that Bowers’ 0.18 TPRR on a 79.2% route share will be an outlier for the year. This may be the only Bowers buy-low window you’ll have this season.
Outlook: Buy Aggressively (Example: Tucker Kraft + James Conner)
19. Trey McBride, TE2, ARZ
McBride’s first read target share in 2024, 33.6%. McBride’s first read target share through two weeks in 2025, 38.9%. Unfortunately, Murray is currently averaging fewer pass attempts per game (27.0) and passing YPG (191.5) than he did in 2024, and McBride has only seen one target in the red zone. The TDs have to come soon, right?
Outlook: Buy (Example: Tucker Kraft + Kyren Williams)
20. Josh Allen, QB1, BUF
Allen was a victim of a poor game script in Week 2, and we saw the Bills' 3 offensive TDs come from James Cook and Elijah Moore on the ground. I expect the Bills to pour it on once again in their Week 3 matchup against the lowly Dolphins.
Outlook: A small Buy window may be available for Allen in your league
21. Lamar Jackson, QB2, BLT
Jackson is now the all-time leader in career passer rating at 102.65. He leads the league in FPG (27.8), FP/DB (1.01), highly accurate throw percentage (66.7%), deep throw attempt percentage (20.8%), passing TDs (5), and passer rating (136.6) through the first two weeks.
22. Jalen Hurts, QB3, PHI
Kevin Patullo has turned an offense teeming with talent into one of the most stale and uninspiring units in the league. Hurts is averaging 126.5 passing YPG, and has yet to throw a TD. He has the 7th-longest time to throw (2.83 seconds), yet has the 3rd smallest aDOT (5.8 yards) and 10th-fewest passes of 20+ air yards downfield. He’s averaging 1.5 yards per game on designed runs, after averaging 17.7 in 2024.
Outlook: Hold
23. Jayden Daniels, QB4, WAS
The biggest Week 2 overreaction I’m seeing is confirmation bias that Daniels is already in a “sophomore slump”. Daniels' FPG through the first two weeks in 2024, 20.8. Daniel’s FPG through the first two weeks in 2025, 19.9. He was just held to under 20 rushing yards for only the 3rd time in his 22 career games. His recent knee injury may keep him out of Week 3, and it will be something to monitor.
24. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR8, SEA
Smith-Njigba currently leads the league in air yard share (60.6%), target share (41.1%), first read target share (51.2%), ranks 2nd in receiving YPG (113.5) and 1D/RR (0.192), and 3rd in YPRR (4.37). Imagine his fantasy ceiling when he starts scoring TDs.
Outlook: If you weren’t able to buy last week, try, try, and try again (Example: Tyreek Hill + Terry McLaurin for Jaxon Smith-Njigba)
25. Davante Adams, WR9, LAR
Not only did Adams remain an effective route runner in Week 2, but we saw that earn him a league high 5 end zone targets (there was a drive where they targeted Adams on three straight plays in the end zone). This Rams passing attack runs through Puka Nacua and Adams predominantly, and there is still a buy mid opportunity for a premier red zone threat in Adams.
Outlook: Still aggressively Buy (Example: George Pickens + David Montgomery for Davante Adams)
26. James Cook, RB10, BUF
Cook ranks 3rd among all RBs in fantasy points over expectation (6.4), and an extremely positive game script in Week 2 led Cook to 21 rush attempts on a 49.3% snap share. Cook only recorded 20 rush attempts or more once during the regular season in 2024. We’re currently seeing him operate at his fantasy ceiling, and his value may never be higher than it is right now.
Outlook: The Bills are likely to remain one of the highest scoring teams, but if you desperately need depth, I would consider selling Cook at his peak value. (Example: James Cook for Chuba Hubbard + Kenneth Walker)
27. Chase Brown, RB11, CIN
Brown has a 100% market share on the Bengals' rushing attempts so far, and currently leads all RBs in fantasy points under expectation (-7.7). He also ranks 3rd in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (5) and 18th in routes run (33).
Outlook: Still aggressively Buy based on his usage (Example: Omarion Hampton + Ricky Pearsall for Chase Brown — this is a trade I just made in my 14-man PPR league)
28. Brian Thomas Jr., WR10, JAX
Thomas looked dejected, uninterested, and flat-out soft in Week 2. His inability to put his body on the line or recall the fundamentals of being a receiver directly led to his team's loss, and his lowlights made me weep (arguably the worst game an “elite WR” has had in years). 11 Targets, 2 in the end zone, and his 19.6 XFP are the only silver linings from Week 2. I am not buying his wrist injury as the sole reason for his poor performance in Week 2.
Outlook: Hold based on his logging of a full practice this week
29. Ladd McConkey, WR11, LAC
For the second week in a row, McConkey (9.8 fantasy points) was outproduced by Quentin Johnston (15.9 fantasy points), and Keenan Allen (17.1 fantasy points). McConkey still led the Chargers WRs in average separation score (0.169), but was out-targeted on a per-route basis (0.18 TPRR). McConkey is too talented to be outproduced by the likes of Johnston and Allen for much longer.
Outlook: Hold/Buy
30. A.J. Brown, WR12, PHI
After not seeing man coverage on a single route in Week 1, Brown returned to form, recording a 40.0% route win rate against man coverage in Week 2. He led all Eagles receivers in target share (36.4%) and targets (8) in Week 2, which resulted in only 7.7 fantasy points.
Outlook: Hold because better days are certainly ahead
31. Tetairoa McMillan, WR13, CAR
McMillan is the real deal and far and away the best receiver the Panthers have, yet he’s only seeing an 18.9% target share. If the Panthers want to win, they need to get McMillan the ball more, especially in the red zone. Xavier Legette and Hunter Renfrow (both trash) have combined for 5 end zone targets to McMillan’s 1. I have little faith in Bryce Young based of these first two weeks, but HC Dave Canales will wake up soon enough, right?
Outlook: Still aggressively Buy (Example: Deebo Samuel Jr + Tony Pollard for Tetairoa McMillan)
32. Drake London, WR14, ATL
London’s -6.8 fantasy points under expectation currently ranks as the 4th-highest in the league (17.0 XFP/G). With Darnell Mooney returning from injury, and London playing through a shoulder issue, the Falcons have ranked 30th in pass rate over expectation through 2 Weeks (-6.5%). Better days are ahead for London and the Falcons' passing attack.
Outlook: Buy with the expectation that the Falcons' passing attack returns to full health soon (Example: Courtland Sutton + Breece Hall for Drake London)
33. Kyren Williams, RB12, LAR
Williams remained the “bell cow” in Week 2 (77.3% of team rush attempts), despite being largely inefficient once again (3.88 YPC). As I’ve noted as a likely possibility many times this offseason, the Rams finally allowed other RB talent to shine. Blake Corum saw 5 rush attempts for 44 yards (8.80 YPC), and scored a TD, thanks to his usage inside the 10-yard line (out-touching Williams 2-1). McVay has confirmed that he wants a backfield split of 65-35% between Williams and Corum going forward.
Outlook: Sell based on the fact that Williams' fantasy ceiling is very dependent on his goal-line usage (Example: Kyren Williams for Jaylen Warren + Chris Olave)
34. Mike Evans, WR15, TB
The last time Evans had a 3-game stretch without a TD was 2022, which was the only season when that occurred in the last 5 years. Evans saw 11 targets in Week 2 while being shadowed by Derek Stingley on 74.3% of his routes, resulting in only 10.6 fantasy points. Evans faces Sauce Gardner in Week 3, who held the Steelers' receivers to 11 total receiving yards in Week 2.
Outlook: Poke and prod the Evans owner to see what he’s worth to him (then buy him after Week 3)
35. Breece Hall, RB13, NYJ
We saw the entire Jets sputter, crash, and burn in Week 2 after their extremely promising offensive start to the season. Justin Fields (concussed) and Tyrod Taylor would combine for 83 passing yards, and the team would only score 1 TD. Hall had the 6th-easiest RB schedule this season, and I have faith he’s capable of bouncing back to his Week 1 form.
36. Omarion Hampton, RB14, LAC
If you only look at the stat sheet for Week 2, you are likely dejected by the numbers Hampton put up. If you watched the entirety of the Chargers game as a Hampton owner, you’re more than likely depressed as well. It was an extremely bizarre usage for Hampton, who saw only 4 rushing attempts in the first half, and would get blown up in the backfield on the majority of his touches (0.13 yards before contact per attempt)
Outlook: Hold/Buy because his value will never be lower to owners than right now, and some teams cannot afford to wait on Hampton to get more comfortable
37. Alvin Kamara, RB15, NO
Kamara bounced back in Week 2, especially in the passing game, seeing 6 receptions on 6 targets (8.1 of his 17.0 fantasy points). Kamara was also much better on the ground compared to Week 1, recording 21 rush attempts for 99 yards (4.71 YPC), regaining the bell cow role (80.8% rush attempt share in Week 2 vs 61.1% in Week 1).
38. Kenneth Walker III, RB16, SEA
Are we back?! Walker outplayed backfield mate Zach Charbonnet from the first snap to the last in Week 2. Walker recorded 8.08 YPC, a 23.1% explosive run rate, and 5 forced missed tackles, while Charbonnet put up 0.67 YPC, 0 explosive runs, and forced only 1 missed tackle. The snap share split was still in favor of Charbonnet (54.7% to 35.9%), and you’re banking on this shifting back in Walker’s favor if you’re looking to buy or hold.
Outlook: Buy (Example: Emeka Egbuka for Kenneth Walker)
39. Rashee Rice, WR16, KC
Has everyone already forgotten about a top-10 WR returning to play in 3 weeks?! Despite being less than a month away from playing, Rice’s value has not seemed to rise on most sites. We’re talking about a WR who recorded 3.47 YPRR, 9.7 Targets/G, and 21.6 FPG in his three healthy games last year. This Chiefs offense is in desperate need of Rice’s talents, and I expect him to return to form immediately upon his return.
Outlook: Buy, especially if the owner is currently struggling (Example: Keenan Allen + Jordan Mason)
40. James Conner, RB17, ARZ
Conner continues to cede more of the backfield to Trey Benson, logging a 52.1% snap share to Benson’s 45.8% in Week 2. Even more concerning, Conner recorded a lower snap share in the passing game as well (41.4% to 58.6%). It also doesn’t help that Benson has been more efficient with his touches in both weeks (8.63 & 4.67 YPC to Conner’s 3.25 & 3.09 YPC).
Outlook: Sell if you didn’t already after last week
41. Garrett Wilson, WR17, DAL
You can chalk Week 2 up as a mulligan for the Jets’ skill position players. I can almost find a silver lining in the fact that Wilson recorded 9.0 fantasy points despite his QBs combining for less than 100 passing yards.
Outlook: Hold
42. Zay Flowers, WR18, ARZ
We may officially be in the midst of a 3rd-year breakout for Flowers. Through two games, he ranks 7th in air yard share (46.1% vs 30.0% in 2024), 2nd in target share (39.6% vs 24.1% in 2024), 5th in receiving yards (109.0 vs 62.3 in 2024), and 5th in FPG (21.5 vs 12.3 in 2024). However, this may be the same Flowers who has recorded under 10.0 fantasy points in 12 games over the last two years.
43. Chuba Hubbard, RB18, CAR
My only two concerns heading into the season for Hubbard were his oddly low YPRR and drop-off in fantasy production when the Panthers lost games. Despite losing both games so far in 2025, Hubbard has recorded 18.3 FPG (7th) and 1.25 YPRR (13th).
Outlook: Keep trying to Buy as people still seem to consider this an “unsexy” player (Example: James Conner + Courtland Sutton)
44. Courtland Sutton, WR19, DEN
Sutton saw defensive priority in Week 2, smothering his production (1.6 fantasy points), which allowed 2nd-year WR Troy Franklin to have his breakout game (24.0 fantasy points). I have a nagging feeling that Franklin just solidified a significant role in this passing attack after this week, which may diminish Sutton’s fantasy ceiling.
Outlook: Shop around in a trade package because his value may not be able to take another hit from a sub-10.0 fantasy point performance
45. DK Metcalf, WR20, PIT
Metalf currently ranks 33rd in total targets (13), 67th in catch rate (53.8%), and 35th in FPG (11.7). He ranks dead last in average separation score (-0.177). He might be toast.
Outlook: Sell based on his inability to take advantage of a lack of target competition in these first two weeks alone
46. Tyler Warren, TE3, IND
Here are some fun stats about Warren’s hot start to his NFL career. He’s the 1st TE in NFL history to record 75+ receiving yards in each of his first 2 career games. He currently leads all TEs in receiving yards (155), yards after the catch (93), and first downs (8).
Outlook: Buy based on his usage and borderline prolific start
47. Emeka Egbuka, WR21, TB
Egbuka has been red-hot in his first two NFL games, scoring 3 TDs on only 8 receptions. Baker Mayfield has shown an affinity and high level of trust in Egbuka right out of the gate, but this TD production is not sustainable. Embuka is only earning 6.5 Targets/G and Chris Godwin continues to inch closer to returning every day.
Outlook: Sell based on the likelihood we start seeing TD regression and a diminishment of his already middling target share
48. Tyreek Hill, WR22, MIA
Hill looked leagues better in Week 2, recording a 0.226 average separation score, 3.52 YPRR, and 19.4% route win rate. Tua improved as well, throwing for 315 passing yards, on 6 deep pass attempts, earning a 115.5 passer rating.
49. Rome Odunze, WR23, CHI
We’ve seen the Ben Johnson boost in full effect with Odunze and his expanded route tree through the first two weeks. The training wheels are finally off, and Odunze’s 0.208 average separation score ranks 9th best among WRs. We are in the midst of a breakout season, with Odunze ranking 4th in FPG (23.8) and 3rd in XFP/G (22.2).
Outlook: One of the few “Buy High” I am willing to offer based on the belief he could be the clear WR1 in this Johnson-led offense for the entire season (Example: JK Dobbins + Tee Higgins)
50. George Kittle, TE4, SF
Kittle’s value will only creep up as he nears a return to action in a few weeks. This is the same Kittle who recorded 11.4 fantasy points in the first quarter of the season. His return likely coincides with Brock Purdy’s and is worth buying low on and stashing if you are currently streaming at the TE position.
