For those of you who aren’t afraid to make trades and thirst for data-supported methods to improve your team throughout the season, this weekly series is for you! I’ll supply you with quick hits for our rest-of-season top-50 players, their trade outlook, and possible trade packages you can offer.
This is a point in the season where you can make some of the most lucrative educated risks by trading. We’ve seen more than enough through three weeks to identify undervalued assets and potential breakout candidates more accurately. Teams have also shown their true colors in these first few games, and we now have a better idea of who is going to kill player value.
If you’re 2-1 or 3-0, don’t be afraid to find ways to better your roster long-term. Target the teams that are struggling, and take advantage of their desperation by attacking their most valuable assets. If you’re on the opposite end, fully evaluate your situation, roster, and upcoming matchups. Can you weather the storm, or do you need to make sacrifices to improve your lineup as a whole?
Current Trends
The ineffectiveness of several O-lines continues to deflate the fantasy ceiling and reliability of many fantasy-relevant players, with there being little hope of improvement anywhere in sight (Bengals, Texans, Raiders, and Titans)
There are several coaches whose offensive schemes are so awful and devoid of ingenuity that I’ve lost faith that their players can produce at a high level week in and week out (Titans, Giants, Bengals, Falcons, Texans, and Raiders)
There are several opportunities to “buy-mid” on several up-and-coming RBs who have shown flashes of greatness (some despite their situations), so don’t be afraid to move off underperforming assets in favor of players with the most room to grow (Trey Benson, Quinshon Judkins, Bhayshul Tuten, Cam Skattebo, and Jacory Croskey-Merrit)
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB1, SF
McCaffrey continued to dominate the backfield volume in Week 3 with a 91.9% snap share, while seeing 27 out of 29 of the total touches. Among RBs in Week 3, McCaffrey earned a league high 10 receptions on 14 targets, and recorded 34.4 expected fantasy points. He’s shown no sign of injury concern, with 77 total touches on the season, while being on pace for ~142 total receptions (this would rank 3rd amongst all receivers).
2. Jonathan Taylor, RB2, IND
The Colts are 3-0, thanks largely to their offense averaging 34.0 PPG and 425.3 total YPG. Taylor leads the league in rushing YPG (112.7) and FPG (25.0), while ranking 5th in YPC (5.63), 6th in MTF/Att (0.28), and 2nd in YACO/Att (3.70). He’s also averaging 3.0 Targets/G, a mark he hasn’t hit season-long since 2022.
3. Bijan Robinson, RB3, ATL
In a blowout loss, Robinson only saw 1 rush attempt in the 4th quarter, and finished the day with 18 total touches. The Falcons are now averaging 14.0 PPG through their first three games, a far cry from the 32.0 PPG over their previous three games in 2024. The good news is that Tyler Allgeier only saw 2 total touches in Week 3, while Robinson retained the 2nd-highest route share among all RBs (75.9%).
4. Saquon Barkley, RB4, PHI
The good: Barkley saw every single backfield touch (22) in Week 3 (resulting in 9.5 fantasy points and 19.5 XFP). The bad: Barkley is now averaging a measly 3.34 YPC (30th), 1.7% explosive run rate (29th), and 0.05 MTF/Att (34th) through three games. Barkley is currently on pace for 120.7 fewer total fantasy points this season than in 2024. This could be because their OL is performing far less effectively this season.
Outlook: Look to buy either this week or after the Eagles face the Broncos in Week 5, based on his usage (Example: Tyreek Hill + Travis Etienne)
5. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB5, DET
Through three weeks, Gibbs has outsnapped David Montgomery 121 to 71, and has dominated the passing game role (70.3% snap share). However, Montgomery has earned one more attempt inside the 5-yard line (4 to 3), with a higher TD rate (57.1% to 42.9%) than Gibbs. Gibbs’s receiving volume remains more fantasy-lucrative, resulting in 18.7 XFP/G vs Montgomery’s 11.9 XFP/G.
6. Puka Nacua, WR1, LAR
Nacua has now recorded over 90 receiving yards and 8 targets in 8 of his last 10 games, and ranks 2nd all-time in career receiving YPG (90.6). He continues to lead the league in targets (35), TPRR (0.45), receiving yards (333), first downs (18), and FPG (24.5), with zero receiving TDs.
7. Derrick Henry, RB6, BLT
Henry has now fumbled in three consecutive games (losing two), and his call security is officially a concern. He’s continued to see an extremely high stacked box rate in Week 3 (66.7%), and now has back-to-back games with 12 or fewer rush attempts (a mark he only hit once in 2024). Game script is always a factor, but the Ravens went undefeated last season in games where Henry saw 20.0+ touches.
Outlook: Buy based on a belief in the King and his securing the football going forward (Example: Chase Brown + Courtland Sutton)
8. De’Von Achane, RB7, MIA
Achane earned his lowest rushing snap share of the season in Week 3 (54.2%), with Ollie Gordon out-touching him inside the 10-yard line two to zero. Achane still ranks 3rd amongst all RBs in route share (73.1%), and leads the Dolphins receiving corps in Targets/G (7.7) and TPRR (0.29).
9. Malik Nabers, WR2, NYG
Russell Wilson giveth and Russell Wilson taketh away. HC Brian Daboll recently benched Wilson in favor of rookie first-round QB Jaxson Dart. I’d argue that the issue is deeper than just the QB play, and I have concerns that a rookie is the answer to this team's woes, but I would be shocked if he is anyone worse than Wilson (outside of his Week 2 performance).
10. Justin Jefferson, WR3, MIN
Carson Wentz was a fairly serviceable upgrade from the level of play we saw from JJ McCarthy in the first two weeks. Wentz’s passer rating (129.8), highly accurate throw rate (75.0%), and ANY/A (10.65) were all higher than McCarthy’s. However, this had little impact on Jefferson’s fantasy output (12.5 FPG with Wentz vs 130.0 with McCarthy), but he only ran 23 routes in a blowout win. The silver lining is that Jefferson was more efficient across the board with Wentz at QB: 0.30 vs 0.25 TPRR, 3.26 vs 2.40 YPRR, 0.087 vs 0.077 1D/RR, and 0.54 vs 0.50 FP/RR
Outlook: Buy based on his increased efficiency with Wentz (Example: DeVonta Smith + Zay Flowers)
11. Ja’Marr Chase, WR4, CIN
It was a nightmare performance from Jake Browning in Week 3, and the Bengals were embarrassed by the Vikings in every facet of the game. They’ll face top-tier defenses in each of the next three weeks (Broncos, Lions, and Packers), and you wonder if the Bengals make a move at QB so they don’t completely waste a 2-0 start. I also wonder if Zac Taylor is on the hot seat.
12. Bucky Irving, RB8, TB
Bucky Irving saw a career-high 29 touches in Week 3, and has maintained a 70.0%+ snap share in every game this season. He’s been contacted a yard or more behind the line of scrimmage on 32.0% of his rush attempts (2nd), and the possible return of Tristan Wirfs in Week 4 should provide a massive boost to the O-line.
Outlook: Buy based on his usage and Wirfs returning soon (Example: Alvin Kamara + DJ Moore)
13. CeeDee Lamb, WR5, DAL
Despite suffering a high ankle sprain on a rushing attempt in Week 2, Lamb believes he can “absolutely” play in Week 4. Doctors didn’t share his optimism, as this injury should sideline him for at least 4 weeks (possibly going on IR).
14. Josh Jacobs, RB9, GB
The Browns are currently holding opposing RBs to the lowest YPC in the league (2.29), and Jacobs was no exception to this trend in Week 3 (1.88 YPC). We saw his snap share fall to 65.6%, with Emmanuel Wilson siphoning 6 rush attempts, but there is great news: Jacobs saw 9 targets, a mark he has only achieved two other times in his career.
Outlook: Buy on him having the hardest RB-matchup last week and seeing career-high levels of receiving usage (Example: Chuba Hubbard + Jameson Williams)
15. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR6, DET
The Lions are back, and their offense is as explosive as ever, but they’ve run the 5th-lowest percentage of passing plays (53.4%) in the league so far. St. Brown is currently overperforming based on his XFP/G (5.2 FPOE), but he’s done so in every season of his career so far (elite talent). He’s also earned at least double the TPRR (0.26), ASS (0.198), and route win rate (20.9%) as Jameson Williams through three games.
16. James Cook, RB10, BUF
Cook saw a 64.9% snap share in Week 3, a mark he had not eclipsed once in 2024. His 7.7% TD rate in 2024 seemed unsustainable, but he’s proving the doubters wrong (me) with a 7.5% TD rate through the first three weeks (4th among all RBs). The Bills are favored in every single one of their games this season.
17. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR7, SEA
You can add Smith-Njigba to the list of stud athletes to tout an impressive “flu game” performance (20.6 fantasy points on 15 routes). Smith-Njigba leads all WRs in YPRR (4.82), air yard share (55.6%), and target share (37.7%), while ranking 2nd in receiving YPG (107.7) on the 76th-most routes run (67).
Outlook: Continue to try to Buy High (Example: Nico Collins + D’Andre Swift)
18. Nico Collins, WR8, HST
8-104-1 looks like a fantastic state line for Collins, until you realize that 53.6% of his fantasy points came from a blown coverage leading to a 50-yard TD catch. He had a costly fumble in the 4th quarter, and the Texans have failed to score more than 20 points in their first three games. If we exclude that TD catch, Collins still earned a 0.32 TPRR on 10 targets, but would have had another middling fantasy performance (11.2 fantasy points).
Outlook: Sell based on the Texans' horrible OL, offensive scheme, and QB play (Example: Rashee Rice + Michael Pittman)
19. Omarion Hampton, RB11, LAC
The small Hampton buy window has officially closed after Najee Harris went down in the 2nd quarter with a season-ending Achilles injury. Hampton would go on to record 19 rushing attempts for 70.0 rushing yards (3.68 YPC) and 1 TD. He also added 6 receptions on 6 targets, leading to his official breakout game (24.9 fantasy points).
20. Trey McBride, TE1, ARZ
“The TDs have to come soon, right?” Week 3 wasn’t a pretty game for the Cardinals' passing attack, with Murray only throwing for 127.0 passing yards, but his lone TD would go to McBride. McBride leads the team in Targets/G (7.3), receiving YPG (60.7), first read target share (33.3%), and 1D/RR (0.105), but his 13.7 FPG ranks 4th in the league among TEs.
21. Brock Bowers, TE2, LV
Bowers saw a season-high snap share (83.9%) and route share (88.2%) in Week 3, yet only earned 5 targets. The knee injury Bowers sustained in Week 1 is still rearing its ugly head and affecting his level of play.
Week 1: 23 routes, 23.5% target share, 103.0 receiving yards, 4.48 YPRR, 27.3% first read target share, 0.174 1D/RR, 75.0% catchable target rate, 15.3 fantasy points
Weeks 2-3: 34 Routes/G, 16.7% target share, 38.0 receiving YPG, 1.12 YPRR, 19.6% first read target share, 0.059 1D/RR, 83.3% catchable target rate, 9.3 FPG
Outlook: Buy based on his likely return to full health soon (Example: Sam LaPorta + DK Metcalf)
22. Lamar Jackson, QB1, BLT
Jackson continues to dominate as a dual-threat QB and is the most likely candidate to finish as the overall QB1. He leads the league in YPA (9.63), passing TDs (9), passer rating (141.8), completion percentage over expectation (11.1%), and FP/DB (0.90).
23. Josh Allen, QB2, BUF
Ironically, the only thing going against Allen seems to be how thoroughly the Bills have dominated their opponents, allowing the team to lean on James Cook and the run game more heavily. That hasn’t stopped Allen from ranking 6th in passing yards (755) and 4th in passing TDs (5) through three Weeks. He also ranks 2nd in rush attempts (24) and 5th in rushing yards (114).
24. Jalen Hurts, QB3, PHI
Out of necessity, Hurts bounced back with a big Week 4 performance. He had just 8.7 fantasy points in the first half, but was able to turn a slow start into a 30.0 fantasy point outing. This team will continue to utilize the tush push, and it appears they can, in fact, pass the ball effectively when required to do so. Hurts is currently on pace for 22.7 rushing TDs this year (he had 14 in 2024).
25. Jayden Daniels, QB4, WAS
Daniels remains day-to-day due to his knee sprain, and HC Dan Quinn commented that Marcus Mariota playing well in Week 3 buys time for the Commanders, so they don’t force Daniels back early. The Commanders may be without Terry McLaurin in Week 4 as well.
26. Davante Adams, WR9, LAR
Through three weeks, Adams has the 2nd highest ASS (0.261), route win rate (28.4%), and PASS (14.9) among all WRs. He leads the league in end zone targets (8), with only a 25.0% conversion rate (his prior 3-year average is 39.4%). There is an argument to be made that his chemistry with Matthew Stafford needs improvement - 60.7% catchable target rate (95th) and 46.4% catch rate (94th).
Outlook: Continue to try to Buy High based on his usage and him continuing to be an elite route runner in a high-powered offense (Example: DJ Moore + DK Metcalf)
27. Ashton Jeanty, RB12, LV
After Jeanty saw an 85.5% snap share in Week 1, he’s now seen that number fall below 60.0% in back-to-back weeks. Chip Kelly’s vocalization that the 6th overall pick needs load management 3 weeks into the season is bewildering. Jeanty has been contacted a yard or more behind the line of scrimmage on 34.0% of his rush attempts (1st). With only a 5.7% target share through 3 weeks, it does not appear PPR upside will be on the menu this year either.
28. A.J. Brown, WR10, PHI
A beneficial game script for Eagles WRs led to Brown bouncing back in Week 3. Jalen Hurts dropped back 37 times, a mark he had only hit four times last year. Brown also ran only 10 routes in the first half, amounting to 1 target and zero fantasy points. It wasn’t until the Eagles were down by 3 scores that they began to lean on the passing game in the 3rd quarter.
Outlook: Sell based on the Eagles' lack of desire to pass unless they absolutely have to (Example: Tetairoa McMillan + Chris Olave)
29. Kyren Williams, RB13, LAR
The rollercoaster ride continues, with Williams bouncing back to a 74.2% snap share in Week 3, while seeing 22 touches (19.2 fantasy points). Williams had a season-high 4.70 YPC while earning both of the Rams’ rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (including a TD called back due to a penalty). Blake Corum continued to impress (8 rush attempts for 53 yards), but Sean McVay switched back to favoring Williams near the goal line.
30. Trey Benson, RB14, ARZ
If you drafted and held onto Benson, congratulations, you have the late-round pick of the year right now. Through the first 3 weeks, Benson has recorded 5.95 YPC (2nd), 9.5% explosive run rate (5th), 0.29 MTF/Att (4th), and 3.57 YACO/Att (3rd). After James Conner went down, Benson saw 75.0% of the carries and 83.0% of the routes.
Outlook: Buy aggressively based on his efficiency before James Conner went down and his usage after he went down (Example: Chase Brown)
31. Tetairoa McMillan, WR11, CAR
An unfavorable game script went against McMillan’s in Week 3, and Bryce Young only dropped back 24 times, resulting in 121.0 passing yards and zero TDs. McMillan only ran 25 routes, but earned a team-high 8 targets (0.32 TPRR), while seeing 2 end zone targets. His 92.6% route share and 40.0% first-read target share were season-highs, an indication that he is the clear focal point of the passing attack.
Outlook: Buy aggressively based on his tape and his increased high-value targets (Example: DJ Moore + Chase Brown)
32. Breece Hall, RB15, NYJ
Hall saw only 9 rush attempts for 21.0 yards in Week 3 (17 of which came on one rush attempt), and recorded a season-low 55.6% snap share (forfeiting 6 rush attempts to Braelon Allen). The positive: Hall ran a season-high 17 routes, resulting in 4 receptions on 6 targets (0.35 TPRR).
33. Kenneth Walker III, RB16, SEA
In a blowout win, Walker saw a 79.4% through the first three quarters (Zach Charbonnet was out due to injury). His 2.38 YPC left something to be desired, but he earned both of the Seahawks' rush attempts inside the 5-yard line (scoring on both).
34. Rashee Rice, WR12, KC
Has everyone already forgotten about a top-10 WR returning to play in 3 weeks?! Despite being less than a month away from playing, Rice’s value has not seemed to rise on most sites. We’re talking about a WR who recorded 3.47 YPRR, 9.7 Targets/G, and 21.6 FPG in his three healthy games last year. This Chiefs offense is in desperate need of Rice’s talents, and I expect him to return to form immediately upon his return. (Yes, this is the same blurb from last week because it remains true!)
Outlook: Buy everywhere you can (Example: Tee Higgins + Marvin Harrison Jr.)
35. Garrett Wilson, WR13, DAL
Through three weeks, two different QBs, and one horrible offensive outing, Wilson is currently the WR7. Despite the Jets being 0-3, Wilson is also outperforming his expected fantasy points per game (3.1 FPOE) for the first season in his career. His 46.9% first-read target ranks 2nd-best among WRs, and that number peaked at 50.0% with Tyrod Taylor at QB in Week 3.
36. Ladd McConkey, WR14, LAC
We have a conundrum here. Both McConkey’s ASS (0.207) and route win rate (22%) are higher than they were in 2024, but his TPRR has fallen from 0.24 to 0.18. McConkey is also running the most valuable type of route at the highest rate in the league (52.6%). I expect TDs to come eventually, but so long as Keenan Allen remains healthy, and the QJ breakout continues, McConkey has a seriously capped fantasy ceiling.
Outlook: Buy because the value for an elite talent could not possibly get lower (Example: Alvin Kamara or Travis Etienne)
37. Rome Odunze, WR15, CHI
There should be zero doubt left that Odunze's sophomore season breakout is 100% real. The Ben-Johnson effect is already in full effect, as the Bears rank top-10 in passing yards and TDs through 3 Weeks. Bears receivers also benefit from a volume necessity thanks to the porous defense, a unit allowing the 4th-most total yards per game (387.0). The fantasy formula for a top-10 WR finish is right there for Odunze.
38. Zay Flowers, WR16, ARZ
“However, this may be the same Flowers who has recorded under 10.0 fantasy points in 12 games over the last two years.” In a game that the Ravens never led, Flowers saw only 3 targets, resulting in 2 receptions for 13 yards (3.3 fantasy points), despite running the most routes on the team (35). We saw 4 different receivers out-produce Flowers, with Mark Andrews putting up a 6-91-2 receiving line. Welcome to the Zay Flowers experience.
Outlook: Sell based on the likely volatility Flowers will see throughout the season (Example: Trey Benson + Chris Olave)
39. Drake London, WR17, ATL
The Falcons fired their WR coach (Ike Hilliard), and are forcing OC Zac Robinson to call plays from the field (rather than in the box) after the offense failed to reach the 30-yard line once in their 30-0 loss to the Panthers. Michael Penix recorded a 45.3 passer rating on the day, moving his season average to 75.8. It can’t get any worse, right?
40. Courtland Sutton, WR18, DEN
Sutton returned as Nix’s safety blanket in Week 3, with a 6-117-1 receiving line against a defense that had not allowed a single reception of 10+ yards the week prior (Chargers). Sutton currently ranks 5th in ASS (0.210), and 10th in PASS (12.7). Sutton also faces the Bengals' defense in Week 4, which has allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to receivers this season (61.1).
41. Emeka Egbuka, WR19, TB
Egbuka is the current favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and I saw shades of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Egbuka’s Week 3 performance (he had not one, not two, but three incredible catches). With Mike Evans sidelined due to a hamstring injury for the next few weeks, and Chris Godwin likely needing time to ramp up when he returns to play, Egbuka’s outlook has never been more positive. He has his biggest test of the year against the Eagles in Week 4 (he’s been the third-worst separator amongst Buccaneers WRs this season).
42. Alvin Kamara, RB17, NO
Through 3 weeks, Kamara has only an 8.3% target share (3.3 targets per game), and his season-low prior to 2025 was 16.4% back in 2022 (4.9 targets per game). He also saw a designed target share above 20% in three of the last four seasons, but that number has fallen to just 10.0% in 2025 (the consequence of a Kellen Moore-led offense).
Outlook: Sell based on his lack of receiving upside this season (Example: Jordan Mason/Cam Skattebo/Quinshon Judkins/Trey Benson + Michael Pittman)
43. Brian Thomas Jr., WR20, JAX
Thomas currently ranks 5th in fantasy points under expectation (-5.8), but his level of play doesn’t lead me to believe he’ll regress toward the mean anytime soon. His catch rate ranks dead last (29.2%), and he has the 4th most drops among WRs (3). His issues appear to be largely mental (concerning), and his first-read target share has dropped to 23.3% (was 29.3% in 2024). We’ve yet to see any of the Jaguars perform at a high level on horizontally breaking routes this season (highly lucrative), and Thomas could still regain that role if he overcomes his mental struggles.
44. DK Metcalf, WR21, PIT
Metcalf still ranks dead last in ASS (-0.181) and 68th in route win rate (9.6%) through three weeks. He ranks 54th in air yard share (23.4%), 44th in TPRR (0.20), 49th in Targets/G, and 77th in catch rate (58.8%). The only impressive metric I’ve seen for Metcalf is his 100% end zone target conversion rate (2/2), but all things eventually regress toward the mean (was 30.0% in 2024).
Outlook: Sell based on every metric we have available for Metcalf (Example: he’ll be sold more efficiently in a multi-player trade package)
45. George Pickens, WR22, DAL
Pickens, currently in a contract year, has an opportunity to prove his worth as the Cowboys' WR1 over the next 4+ Weeks with CeeDee Lamb sidelined. Since his move to the Cowboys, Pickens has seen fewer targets per route (0.17 TPRR), recorded fewer receiving YPG (55.3), and been less efficient as a whole (1.33 YPRR). He has, however, seen 7 end zone targets in 3 games, leading to 16.6 XFP/G, and should see an uptick in his first-read target share (20.9%) over the next few weeks.
46. Jaylen Warren, RB18, PIT
Aaron Rodgers promised us we would see Warren utilized more in the passing game in Week 3, and he delivered on that promise. Warren saw season-high marks in route share (45.8%), targets (6), TPRR (0.55), and first-read target share (16.7%). It was a rough game on the ground for Warren (2.61 YPC), but he saw a season-high 77.6% snap share.
Outlook: Buy based on his utilization and increased receiving upside (Example: Deebo Samuel Jr.)
47. Quinshon Judkins, RB19, PIT
In Week 3, Judkins saw 94.7% of the rushing attempts, and produced an 18-94-1 rushing line with that volume. He currently ranks 7th in YPC (5.54), 9th in explosive run rate (7.1%), 9th in MTF/Att (0.25), and 6th in YACO/Att (3.43).
Outlook: Buy based on his efficiency and dominant rushing volume (Example: DK Metcalf)
48. Tyler Warren, TE3, IND
It was a blowout win for the Colts against the Titans in Week 3, with Jonathan Taylor accounting for three of their four offensive TDs. Warren saw a measly aDOT of 1.0 yards, but tied for the most routes run amongst Colts receivers (23). Daniel Jones will continue to spread the ball around, but Warren still leads the team in Targets/G (6.7), TPRR (0.26), YPRR (2.47), first-read target share (24.3%), and XFP/G (11.6).
Outlook: Buy based on his usage and the fact that the Colts have one of the most high-powered offenses in the league (Example: Travis Kelce + D’Andre Swift)
49. Tyreek Hill, WR23, MIA
Through 3 weeks, among Dolphins receivers (including De’Von Achane), Hill is tied for 1st in Targets/G (7.7), ranks 2nd in route share (75.9%), 2nd in TPRR (0.28), 1st in receiving YPG (66.0), 2nd in end zone targets (1), 2nd in first-read target share (25.9%), and 4th in catchable target rate (78.3%).
Outlook: Sell based on the fact that Tua Tagovailoa is an awful QB and his offense is built around Achane (Example: Michael Pittman and Quinshon Judkins)
50. Javonte Williams, RB20, DAL
A fumble early on led to a split backfield in Dallas for the remainder of their Week 3 matchup against the Bears. Williams would still end the day with impressive metrics across the board: 7.60 YPC, 10.0% explosive run rate, 2 forced missed tackles, and 3.10 YACO/Att. The Cowboys will be without two starting offensive linemen, and their top WR over the next few weeks. Their next two matchups are against the Packers and the Jets.
Outlook: Sell based on the likelihood the Cowboys' offense and run-game decline over the next two weeks (Example: Ladd McConkey)
