2024 NFL Most Rushing Touchdown Odds

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2024 NFL Most Rushing Touchdown Odds

The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Rushing Touchdown Props and it’s time to dive into the 2024 NFL Most Rushing Touchdown Odds for the top quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Christian McCaffrey and a few additional wagers I considered.

Raheem Mostert led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns last season, which cashed the 26th-shortest odds at +4000. He bested Jalen Hurts (15, +800), Josh Allen (15, +4000), and Christian McCaffrey (14, +2200) for the rushing TD crown. McCaffrey (+450) is the favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns entering his age-28 campaign. He’s followed by Derrick Henry (+475), Jalen Hurts (+700), Jonathan Taylor (+850), and David Montgomery (+1000) at 10/1 odds or shorter.

I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Playoff Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Receiving Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Most Passing Touchdown Odds, the 2024 NFL Most Rushing Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Rushing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 33 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.

Rushing Touchdowns Leaders from the Last Decade

YearRunning BackAgeRushing TDsOdds (rank)
2023Raheem Mostert (Mia)3118+4000 (t-26th)
2022Jamaal Williams (Det)2717+10000 (t-40th)
2021Jonathan Taylor (Ind)2218+800 (t-3rd)
2020Derrick Henry (Ten)2617+600 (t-1st)
2019D. Henry (Ten), A. Jones (GB)25/2416+1000 (t-3rd), +3000 (t-19th)
2018Todd Gurley (LAR)2417+650 (3rd)
2017Todd Gurley (LAR)2313+2500 (t-11th)
2016LeGarrette Blount (NE)2918N/A
2015D. Freeman (Atl)/J. Hill (Cin)/A. Peterson (Min)/D. Williams (Car)23/22/30/3211N/A
2014M. Lynch (Sea)/D. Murray (Dal)28/2613N/A

Historical Hints

We have odds for the last seven years at our disposal. A player inside the top three in odds cashed in four straight seasons in 2018-21, but longshots Jamaal Williams (+10000) and Raheem Mostert (+4000) have cashed in back-to-back seasons. Not only were Williams and Mostert longshot winners but they were also 27+ years old, which ended a five-year run with league leaders that checked in at 26 years old or younger.

Todd Gurley (2017-18) or Derrick Henry (2019-20) owned or shared the lead in rushing touchdowns in four straight seasons before Jonathan Taylor (+800) ended their run of titles in 2021. The rushing touchdown leader has averaged at least a rushing TD per game in each of the last six seasons after the leader fell below that pace in 4-of-5 seasons from 2013-17. This is the one statistical leader category that’s ended in a tie three times over the last decade — check sportsbook rules for ties but dead-heat rules likely apply.

2024 NFL Most Rushing Touchdowns Odds

The table is sorted by Fantasy Points rushing touchdown projections. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Rushing TDs to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) as of July 9.

RunnerFP ProjectionLongest Odds for Most Rushing TDsShortest Odds for Most Rushing TDs
Christian McCaffrey (SF)11.9+1000 (FD)+450 (CZR)
Derrick Henry (Bal)11.9+1000 (FD)+475 (CZR)
Josh Allen (Buf)10.7+1900 (FD)+1300 (ESPN)
Jalen Hurts (Phi)10.5+1400 (DK)+700 (CZR)
David Montgomery (Det)10.3+2000 (FD)+1000 (CZR)
Kyren Williams (LAR)10.1+1700 (FD)+1400 (ESPN)
Jonathan Taylor (Ind)10.0+1900 (FD)+850 (CZR)
Raheem Mostert (Mia)9.4+2900 (FD)+1400 (DK)
Jahmyr Gibbs (Det)9.0+3000 (FD)+1800 (DK)
Saquon Barkley (Phi)9.0+2200 (FD)+1600 (DK)
De’Von Achane (Mia)8.8+3000 (FD)+2000 (DK/ESPN)
Gus Edwards (LAC)8.6+7000 (DK)+2000 (CZR)
Travis Etienne (Jax)8.0+3500 (ESPN/CZR)+2500 (DK)
Kenneth Walker (Sea)8.0+2900 (FD)+1800 (CZR)
Isiah Pacheco (KC)7.9+3800 (FD)+2500 (ESPN/DK)
Anthony Richardson (Ind)7.9+3100 (FD)+1800 (ESPN/CZR)
Joe Mixon (Hou)7.8+3000 (CZR)+2500 (DK/ESPN)
Breece Hall (NYJ)7.3+3000 (CZR)+1500 (ESPN)
Jonathon Brooks (Car)7.3+10000 (FD)+7500 (ESPN)
Najee Harris (Pit)7.3+7000 (DK)+5000 (FD)
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)7.2+7500 (ESPN)+5000 (FD)
Josh Jacobs (GB)7.0+4000 (CZR)+2000 (DK)
James Conner (Ari)7.0+7500 (ESPN)+3300 (FD)
Bijan Robinson (Atl)6.6+3200 (FD)+1600 (DK)
Zack Moss (Cin)6.6+7000 (DK)+4800 (FD)
Lamar Jackson (Bal)6.6+5500 (FD)+2800 (CZR)
Brian Robinson (Was)6.4+10000 (FD)+7500 (CZR/ESPN)
James Cook (Buf)6.0+10000 (CZR)+5000 (DK)
Zamir White (LV)6.0+7500 (CZR/ESPN)+5500 (FD)
Blake Corum (LAR)5.9+10000 (ESPN/DK)+9500 (FD)
Devin Singletary (NYG)5.8+15000 (CZR)+6000 (DK)
Aaron Jones (Min)5.7+15000 (CZR)+7000 (DK)
Rachaad White (TB)5.6+6000 (DK/ESPN)+5000 (FD)
D’Andre Swift (Chi)5.5+9000 (CZR)+6000 (FD)
Tony Pollard (Ten)5.1+9000 (CZR)+6000 (FD)

Brolley’s Best Bets

Christian McCaffrey (SF) most regular season rushing TDs 2024-25 (+1000, FanDuel). Placed July 9.

McCaffrey tied Raheem Mostert for the league-high in total touchdowns with 21 scores, but Mostert bested him for the rushing TD crown. CMC still finished with 14 rushing scores and a league-high 1459 rushing yards despite sitting out the season finale, and he added 268/4 rushing in three postseason games. He ranked first in red-zone carries (63) and second in carries inside the 10-yard line (34), which wasn’t surprising since the 49ers finished sixth in rush rate from inside the 20-yard line (53.4%) and third in rush rate from inside the 10-yard line (63.2%). It was the second straight season the 49ers finished inside the top six in rush rates in both areas of the field with CMC in the fold.

Overall, McCaffrey has scored 26 rushing TDs in his first 33 games with the 49ers (postseason included), and his elite touchdown production has a great chance to continue especially if Brock Purdy’s unsustainable TD rate begins to regress this season. Purdy paced the NFL in TD rate at 7.0%, well ahead of Dak Prescott in second at 6.1%, and he owns a career 7.2% TD rate through his first two seasons. Kyle Shanahan will once again lead one of the league’s best-scoring offenses, and CMC’s +1000 odds are a hair too long. In the Fantasy Points discord, subscriber Russell Miller pointed out a correlated bet on DraftKings for CMC to lead the NFL in rushing and receiving TDs at +275 odds.

Brolley’s Leans

Derrick Henry (Bal) most regular season rushing TDs 2024-25 (+1000, FanDuel).

Our projections have Henry and Christian McCaffrey pacing the league in rushing touchdowns with 11.9 scores, and they’re also tied atop of the odds board at +1000 odds at FanDuel. I decided to bet CMC at his odds and I have no objections to anyone who wants to take Henry at the same odds. He already owns two rushing TD crowns in 2019-20 and he’s reached double-digit scores in six consecutive seasons as he heads into his first campaign with the Ravens. Henry will get a significant offensive line upgrade after the Ravens finished fourth in yards before contact per attempt (1.82), and the threat of Lamar Jackson will open holes he hasn’t seen in recent years with the Titans. He’ll take over the goal-line role previously occupied by Gus Edwards, who tied for the league lead for inside the 5-yard-line carries (19) and led the league with the most touchdowns (12) off of those attempts. The Ravens finished fifth in rush rate from both inside the 10-yard line (61.9%) and the 20-yard line (54.2%), and Henry could be fed if Todd Monken takes a similar approach with Henry replacing Edwards.

Kyren Williams (LAR) most regular season rushing TDs 2024-25 (+1700, FanDuel).

Williams finished tied for seventh with 12 rushing TDs last season despite missing five games for an ankle injury. He’ll need to hold off third-round pick Blake Corum for goal-line opportunities, but the Rams could go more run-heavy closer to the goal line. The Rams ranked 16th in rush rate from inside the 10-yard line (50.5%) and 14th in rush rate from inside the 20-yard line (48.6%), but you don’t have to look too far to the past to when the Rams ranked at the top of the league in scoring-range carries.

Todd Gurley led the league in rushing TDs in back-to-back seasons in 2017-18 at the start of Sean McVay’s tenure, and Gurley did it by leading the league in carries from inside the 5- and 10-yard line in both campaigns. The Rams could pound the ball in between the tackles more this season after beefing up the interior of their offensive line by signing Jonah Jackson, which will kick second-round pick Steve Avila to center. Williams was already one of the league’s best inside runners before the signing, leading the league in rushing yards (647) and ranking second to Christian McCaffrey in TDs (10) on carries in the A and B gaps. Williams has a clear path to leading the NFL in rushing TDs if he can maintain a bell-cow role and if he can stay healthy.

Josh Allen (Buf) most regular season rushing TDs 2024-25 (+1900, FanDuel).

Allen posted career-highs in interceptions (18) and giveaways (22), but he finished just 1 rushing touchdown short of matching O.J. Simpson’s Bills single-season record of 16 rushing TDs set in 1975. He also finished second in rushing TDs behind Raheem Mostert after never previously reaching double-digit TDs in his first five seasons. The Bills switched from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady at play-caller after a loss to the Broncos in Week 10, and the offense ran through the running game and Allen’s legs after the in-season move. Allen averaged 4.8 carries per game with 7 rushing TDs in 10 games under Dorsey compared to 9.2 carries per game and 11 rushing TDs in nine games under Brady. His rushing touchdown production could be difficult to duplicate, but the Bills could remain run-heavy in the scoring areas of the field after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The Bills ranked fourth in rush rate from inside the 10-yard line (62.8%) and Allen finished seventh in inside the 5-yard-line carries (14). Allen ranks third in our rushing TD projections with 10.7 scores but sixth in FanDuel odds at +1900.

Gus Edwards (LAC) most regular season rushing TDs (+7000, DraftKings).

Edwards is coming off a 13-touchdown campaign in his final year with the Ravens, which propelled him to a fifth-place finish after scoring a combined 13 rushing TDs in his first five seasons. He tied for the league lead for inside the 5-yard-line carries (19) and led the league with the most touchdowns (12) off of those attempts. Edwards will play the same early-down/goal-line role under Jim Harbaugh, who will turn the Chargers into a run-heavy offense with the help of former Baltimore OC Greg Roman, who worked with Edwards from 2019-22. Edwards has the clear advantage for carries and goal-line opportunities over the oft-injured J.K. Dobbins and sixth-round pick Kimani Vidal. Our projections have Edwards finishing with 8.6 rushing TDs, which ranks him 12th overall, but DraftKings has him tied for 27th in odds to accomplish the feat. He’s a longshot for a reason at +7000 odds, but he has an outside chance for the rushing TD crown because has a path to finish near the top of the league in inside the 5-yard-line carries for the second straight year.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at a 60% clip or better in each of the last two seasons and he owned the last undefeated team out of 3000 entries in Scott Fish Bowl 12.