The 2023 NFL MVP odds were released in mid-February following the Kansas City Chiefs defeating the Philadelphia Eagles for the Lombardi Trophy. Patrick Mahomes took home the Super Bowl MVP after winning the 2022 regular season MVP award at +800 preseason odds, and he’s the preseason favorite to repeat as the winner at +650 odds. Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow and Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen have emerged as the second favorites at +700, followed by Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (+900) and Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (+1100).
It’s important to remember that the NFL MVP award isn’t entirely driven by results on the field unless one player is head and shoulders above the competition. The MVP winner is often driven by a good narrative since media members vote for the award. Sure, the eventual MVP winner will have to play well to bring home the hardware, but a great storyline could put the eventual winner over the top. The award will be announced at the 13th Annual NFL Honors ceremony, which will be held on Feb. 8, 2024, before Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas.
|Year||MVP||Preseason Odds||Team Record|
|2022||Patrick Mahomes (KC)||+800||14-3|
|2021||Aaron Rodgers (GB)||+1100||13-4|
|2020||Aaron Rodgers (GB)||+3000||13-3|
|2019||Lamar Jackson (Bal)||+4000||14-2|
|2018||Patrick Mahomes (KC)||+3500||12-4|
|2017||Tom Brady (NE)||+385||13-3|
|2016||Matt Ryan (Atl)||+7500||11-5|
|2015||Cam Newton (Car)||+5200||15-1|
|2014||Aaron Rodgers (GB)||+600||12-4|
|2013||Peyton Manning (Den)||+600||13-3|
The MVP award is a quarterback-driven award, as we saw once again last season with Mahomes taking home the award. Justin Jefferson finished with the sixth-most receiving yards in any season and he was the clear best player on a team that won 13 games, and he still finished fifth in voting with just 55 points out of 1049 in the new voting system. Quarterbacks have won the MVP in 10 consecutive seasons, with Adrian Peterson being the last non-QB to capture the award in 2012. The position has claimed the MVP in 20 of the last 23 seasons with running backs claiming the other three awards (Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Shaun Alexander). It’s going to take a truly special season from a non-quarterback to win the award and even then, it’s not a guarantee to be a contender. Cooper Kupp won the receiving triple crown — most receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs — in 2021 and didn’t even sniff the award in a down year for quarterbacks.
It’s also a prerequisite to play on a title contender, with the last nine winners each reaching at least 11 regular-season victories. If we stretch out the sample to the last 23 seasons, 22 MVP winners have won at least 11 games. Peterson is once again the major outlier, as a non-quarterback MVP on a team that won fewer than 11 games. Dozens of players across all positions have odds to win the MVP across multiple sportsbooks, but I’m focusing on quarterbacks on teams that have the potential to win 11+ games this season.
2023 NFL MVP Favorites
Players are sorted by “Shortest Odds,” but it’s best to bet these MVP candidates at their “Longest Odds” to maximize your return.
|PLAYER||LONGEST ODDS||SHORTEST ODDS|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||+700, DraftKings||+650, BetMGM|
|Joe Burrow (Cin)||+750, DraftKings||+700, BetMGM|
|Josh Allen (Buf)||+800, DraftKings||+700, FanDuel|
|Justin Herbert (LAC)||+1500, Caesars||+900, FanDuel|
|Jalen Hurts (Phi)||+1200, FanDuel||+1100, BetMGM|
|Lamar Jackson (Bal)||+1500, DraftKings||+1400, BetMGM|
|Trevor Lawrence (Jax)||+1600, FanDuel||+1400, DraftKings|
|Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)||+1800, Caesars||+1600, BetMGM|
|Tua Tagovailoa (Mia)||+2200, Caesars||+1600, BetMGM|
|Dak Prescott (Dal)||+2500, Caesars||+1600, FanDuel|
|Justin Fields (Chi)||+2500, Caesars||+2000, BetMGM|
|Deshaun Watson (Cle)||+4000, Caesars||+2500, FanDuel|
|Jared Goff (Det)||+4000, Caesars||+2500, FanDuel|
|Geno Smith (Sea)||+3500, Caesars||+3000, FanDuel|
The MVP came from +3000 odds or longer in five of six seasons in 2015-20. Sportsbooks were clearly tired of getting burned by long-shot quarterbacks winning the award, and there are 14 quarterbacks with odds at +3000 shorter. There’s little value at the top of the board outside of Jalen Hurts, who is listed at +1200 odds at FanDuel. Hurts should be listed with Justin Herbert, Josh Allen (+700), Joe Burrow (+700), and Patrick Mahomes (+650) among the favorites for the award.
Hurts made huge gains in each of his first three seasons since being drafted in the second round in 2020, and he finished behind only Mahomes for the 2022 MVP. He’s coming off one of the best performances by a losing player in Super Bowl history, and he’ll have arguably the league’s best WR tandem with DeVonta Smith developing into a bona fide superstar next to A.J. Brown. It might not hurt to play more marquee games in 2023, and Philly’s defense lost a few key players, which could boost his passing numbers if the Eagles play in more shootouts.
Deshaun Watson (+2500) and Justin Fields (+2000) have caught some buzz as potential candidates, but they’re reaches for me at their current odds. Watson played like an MVP earlier in his career with the Texans before playing worse than Jacoby Brissett in his first action since 2020. He’s capable of playing at a high enough level to win the award, but he’d have to blow away the rest of the field since voters won’t be dying to cast their votes for him because of his sexual harassment allegations. Fields would look to follow the path of Hurts and Lamar Jackson (+1400) in recent years to the top of the MVP vote, but the key difference is that Hurts and Lamar actually had good teams around them. The Bears helped him out by trading for stud D.J. Moore, but expecting the league’s second-worst roster from 2022 to improve by eight games to reach 11+ victories is a bridge too far to cross.
2023 NFL MVP Mid-Range and Longshot Bets
|PLAYER||LONGEST ODDS||SHORTEST ODDS|
|Derek Carr (NO)||+4500, DraftKings||+3500, FanDuel|
|Russell Wilson (Den)||+4500, Caesars||+3500, DraftKings|
|Jordan Love (GB)||+5000, BetMGM||+3500, FanDuel|
|Brock Purdy (SF)||+4500, DraftKings||+4000, FanDuel|
|Trey Lance (SF)||+5000, FanDuel||+4000, Caesars|
|Kenny Pickett (Pit)||+6000, Caesars||+4000, FanDuel|
|Kirk Cousins (Min)||+5000, multiple books||+5000, multiple books|
|Matthew Stafford (LAR)||+6000, DraftKings||+5000, BetMGM|
|Daniel Jones (NYG)||+8000, BetMGM||+5000, DraftKings|
|Kyler Murray (Ari)||+15000, DraftKings||+5000, Caesars|
|Mac Jones (NE)||+8000, Caesars||+6000, FanDuel|
|Jimmy Garoppolo (LV)||+10000, FanDuel||+8000, DraftKings|
|Christian McCaffrey (SF)||+20000, FanDuel||+8000, DraftKings|
The mid-range MVP candidates (+3500 to +8000) feature 13 quarterbacks and the first non-QB on the board in Christian McCaffrey at +8000. It also includes two signal-callers from the same team in Trey Lance (+2500) and Brock Purdy (+3000).
Our Tom Brolley wagered on both Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford at +6600 odds back in mid-February. The Packers moved on from Aaron Rodgers (+1600) and his excess drama this off-season, which opened the door for Love to finally showcase why the Packers drafted him in the first round in 2020. Love was considered a raw prospect when he came out of Utah State, but it’s worth a chance that he cleaned up his biggest issues — accuracy, decision-making, and mechanics — while biding his time behind Rodgers. He’s attempted just 83 passes through three seasons, but he’ll be in a position to succeed immediately on a team that won 13 games in three straight seasons in 2019-21.
Stafford is one season removed from throwing for 41 TDs, averaging 8.1 YPA, and winning 12 games in Los Angeles’ Super Bowl-winning campaign. The Rams are unlikely to get back to the heights they experienced during the 2021 season, but it doesn’t hurt that he has one of the league’s best WRs at his disposal in Cooper Kupp. Los Angeles’ defense could also take a major step back from recent years, which could inflate Stafford’s numbers playing in more high-scoring affairs. The Rams have quickly been written off after a five-win campaign in their title defense, and the 2023 season could be the swan song for Los Angeles’ core group, which would give Stafford a strong narrative if they can climb back into the mix in the weaker of the two conferences.
Tom Brolley’s MVP Bets Placed on Feb. 16
Jalen Hurts (Phi) to win MVP (+1300, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 13 units.
Jordan Love (GB) to win MVP (+6600, PointsBet). Risk .2 units to win 13.2 units
Matthew Stafford (LAR) to win MVP (+6600, BetMGM). Risk .2 units to win 13.2 units