Week 16 Underdog Pick Em


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Week 16 Underdog Pick Em

Welcome to a brand-new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.

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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4-point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!

Current Record: 31-15-1; Week 15: 3-0

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 300.5 Passing Yards

Yes, Mahomes is 8-1 and averages 316.5 passing yards in freezing or below temperatures across his career, but this is extraordinarily cold. There shouldn’t be much downfield passing in this one, with the winds supposed to be in the 35 mph range and a negative wind-chill.

The Seahawks have not been a team that you throw on this season, giving up 232.3 passing yards per game and only two quarterbacks all year have thrown for 300 or more yards against them, so I’m rolling with the under here.

Tee Higgins OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards

I have bet on Higgins and gotten burned quite a few times this season, but we’re going right back to the well this week. The Patriots are a much different team against bad offenses versus good offenses, and the Bengals fall under the ‘good offense’ label. That’s bad for New England, as their DVOA vs. teams with a better than .500 record is not good.

Bill Belichick is famous for trying to take away a team’s top weapon, which bodes well for Higgins as Ja’Marr Chase is the most dangerous weapon the Bengals have. When he’s covered, though, Burrow will just throw it to Higgins, and he should have success because the Patriots are giving up the 5th-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers in the last 6 games at 25.6.

Derrick Henry OVER 0.5 Rushing TDs

I’ll stop short of saying this is a free bet, but it seems awfully close. In his last four games against the Texans, Henry has rushed for an average of 223 yards and 2.25 touchdowns PER GAME. That is some wild stuff. Absolute crazy domination.

Henry should run wild once again this week because once again, the Texans have not been able to stop anyone on the ground. They still allow the most rushing yards per game to backs and Henry should bulldoze in for at least one touchdown – I think he runs for 2 again, personally.

Final Thoughts

When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 6-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all three legs hit, you will win $600 total!

Alternatively, you can choose to get insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other two do, you get paid at 1-1 odds, while winning at 3-1 odds if you still hit all three legs.