Super Bowl: Underdog Pick Em


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Super Bowl: Underdog Pick Em

Welcome to a brand-new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself; you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.

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Before we get going, here is a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4-point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. This is the last game of the season, so let’s dive right into this week’s props!

Current Record: 44-26-1; Conference: 2-2

JuJu Smith-Schuster UNDER 37.5 Receiving Yards

The major feeling on this play stems from the fact that Avonte Maddox is expected to play in this game, and he has been a strong point of defense for the Eagles all season long. If we add that to the fact that Smith-Schuster has not eclipsed this number in FIVE straight games, this feels like a home run play.

JuJu has just been too hit or miss this season for the Chiefs, and while he may be the most talented WR on the field for the team, there is a strong sense that the Eagles are able to contain him in this game where he’s coming off an injury.

Kenneth Gainwell OVER 11.5 Receiving Yards

This is one of my favorite plays this week. The Chiefs allow the third-most receiving yards per game to the running back position.

While Gainwell saw an increased snap count the last two weeks mostly due to overwhelmingly positive gamescript for the Eagles, he also saw that snap count increasing over the past six weeks, notching at least 27% snaps in all six games, a number he had only seen submitted five times this season prior.

Gainwell could see a 2018 Super Bowl Corey Clement-esque workload in this game, and could be an unsung hero for this Eagles team.

Dallas Goedert OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards

Is there a prop that seems more destined to hit than this one? There is, but don’t discount Goedert in this matchup. The Chiefs play a bunch of Cover 2 and Cover 4 defensive looks, which should free up the middle of the field for Goedert to work.

In addition to this, the Chiefs on paper boast a solid defensive look against tight ends, but when you look deeper, any time they played a quality tight end this season, that TE went off against them (George Kittle 100 yards). Goedert has all the receiving chops to beat up on this KC defense that has coverage LB Willie Gay hurting from a shoulder injury.

Justin Watson UNDER 17.5 Receiving Yards

Watson has only hit this number in 6 out of 18 total games this season, and you have to think this line is a sticker shock in response to all the injuries the Chiefs have suffered to the WR corps this postseason.

The main issue with that argument, though, is that most of the Chiefs’ receivers are expected to suit up for this game. Watson has also made his mark most of the time this season through big pass plays, which the Chiefs rank first in the NFL in. However, the Eagles do well at limiting big pass plays and allow the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, so beware.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 39.5 Passing Attempts

Stick with me here. Despite Mahomes only going over this number a handful of times this season, this could be the first game all year where Mahomes is constantly throwing.

First off, the Chiefs run one of the heaviest pass-neutral offenses, meaning they prefer to pass the ball on 1st and 10 rather than run the ball, so whether they’re up or down they will likely continue to throw. Secondly, the Eagles like to run the ball, but they also mix in a healthy amount of chunk plays (2nd most in the NFL this season), so they’re always moving the ball. If they get downfield and score, Mahomes will come right back and be throwing to keep up. This is a play on the game being a back-and-forth entertaining game, and I think Mahomes throws 40+ times.

Final Thoughts

When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 20-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all five legs hit, you will win $2000 total!

Alternatively, you can choose to get insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other four do, you get paid at 2.5-1 odds, while winning at 10-1 odds if you still hit all five legs.