Conference Championships: Underdog Pick Em


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Conference Championships: Underdog Pick Em

Welcome to a brand-new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself; you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.

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Before we get going, here is a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4-point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!

Current Record: 42-24-1; Divisional: 3-1

Kenneth Gainwell OVER 6.5 Receiving Yards

Gainwell should be plenty busy this week against the 49ers after seeing his 3rd-highest snap percentage of the season. Despite the Eagles not really needing his pass-catching skillset much this season, he has still hit this number in 5 straight games and 9 of his last 12 games, and when you only need one catch to hit the number, it can easily get there.

I’m making a calculated bet here that with the 49ers’ pass rush, Jalen Hurts may have to bail out a few times and throw the ball underneath to Gainwell, and he moves well enough that this should be relatively easy for him to manage.

Jerick McKinnon UNDER 4.0 Receptions

We saw a drastic shift in McKinnon’s role when Patrick Mahomes went down with an ankle injury last week, and it directly correlated to McKinnon not seeing any receiving work in that game. The fact of the matter is that McKinnon is an excellent blocker, and he stepped up in that role to help the hobbled Mahomes move around the pocket easier.

In this game, we could see more of the same from the dynamic back. Clyde Edwards-Helaire reportedly has a chance to play Sunday, and could also impact McKinnon’s opportunities and playing time. All in all, an under here feels like it has at least one catch of value.

Christian McCaffrey UNDER 99.5 Rush/Rec Yards

I got burned taking this over 106.5 last week against the Cowboys, so to me it makes perfect sense to turn a complete 180 in what should be a MUCH tougher matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.

McCaffrey, in a perfect world, smashes this total, given the Eagles’ struggles on the ground at times this season, but this is not a perfect world. McCaffrey is banged up, with a calf issue and patellar tendinitis. This Eagles team is perfectly capable of loading up the box to stop CMC, knowing that its elite secondary can hold its own. Only two running backs all year have eclipsed this number against the Eagles, and it may not increase this week.

Jalen Hurts OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

The Eagles are going to have to throw the ball to win this game. I don’t foresee this being a defensive showing where both teams run the ball a lot because both teams have solid run defenses, and San Francisco has the best rush defense in the NFL. I believe that Kyle Shanahan will look to pressure Hurts into throwing the ball early.

The problem for him is that the Eagles are completely fine with throwing early, and have looked to establish a rhythm by doing just that a number of times this year (example: Eagles vs. Steelers). Hurts knows how to take advantage of the zone that the 49ers run, and he will look to do just that by dialing up some deep shots early. Would be surprised if we don’t see the Eagles look to up the pace and throw deep on their first drive to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Final Thoughts

When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 10-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all four legs hit, you will win $1000 total!

Alternatively, you can choose to get insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other four do, you get paid at 2.5-1 odds, while winning at 10-1 odds if you still hit all four legs.