Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5, 4-3), 4:05 p.m.
Brolley’s Jaguars Stats and Trends
The Jaguars finally snapped the NFL’s third-longest losing streak of all-time. Jacksonville ended their 20-game losing streak and they got back into the win column for the first time since Week 1 of 2020 with their last-second victory over the Dolphins in Week 6.
The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdogs
Jacksonville is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games.
James Robinson has hung 19+ FP in four straight games. He has a touchdown in each of those contests with five total scores in that span, and he’s topped 100+ scrimmage yards in three of those contests. The Seahawks have been roasted by Alvin Kamara (30/179/1 scrimmage) and Najee Harris (30/127/1) in the last two weeks.
Trevor Lawrence has seen his YPA average rise from 5.7 yards in his first three games to 8.1 in his last three contests, and his completion percentage also rose (54.2% to 66.3%) in that same span. It hasn’t quite translated into smashing fantasy success just yet as he was the QB19 with 19.1 FPG in Weeks 4-6, but he’s trending in the right direction coming out of their bye. Seattle has given up just a single TD pass to QBs in the last four weeks, and they’ve played in some real slogs in their first two games with Geno Smith at QB with 66 combined points in those contests.
Marvin Jones snapped out of a two-week funk in Weeks 4-5 (4/49 receiving) with his best performance of the season, posting 7/100/1 receiving on 10 targets against the Dolphins. Top perimeter WRs Diontae Johnson (9/71 receiving) and Robert Woods (12/150) had success against the Seahawks before they ran into New Orleans last week.
Laviska Shenault has run routes out of the slot just 21% of the time the last two weeks with D.J. Chark (ankle, IR) done for the season. Shenault managed 7/112 receiving on 12 targets and 59 routes. Jamal Agnew has become the new slot WR (78% rate), turning in 11/119 on 12 and 58 routes the last two weeks. The Seahawks are giving up the 13th-fewest FPG (36.1) to WRs this season.
Dan Arnold has been fairly active in his first three weeks with the Jags, but he disappointed with 2/27 receiving on five targets and a 62% snap share in Week 6. The Seahawks are giving up the 16th-most FPG (13.4) to TEs this season.
Brolley’s Seahawks Stats and Trends
The Seahawks have covered their first two games with Geno Smith at quarterback as underdogs.
Seattle is 13-3 toward unders in its last 16 games.
Geno Smith has finished with fewer than 12 FP in each of his first two starts with just 376/2 passing combined against the Steelers and Saints. He does get a much better matchup this week against the Jaguars, which has given up 290+ passing yards in five of their six games.
D.K. Metcalf is the only receiver surviving the switch to Geno with 11/208/2 on 15 targets in his first nine quarters with Smith. He had an 84-yard catch-and-run TD against Marshon Lattimore last week, and he has 11+ FP in every game this season. He’ll get a much easier matchup this week against a Jaguars’ secondary that’s giving up a healthy 13.5 YPR and the 10th-most FPG (38.1) to WRs.
Tyler Lockett has had no such luck with just 5/54 receiving on 14 targets in his first nine quarters with Geno. Lockett has finished with fewer than eight FP in four of his last five games. Jaylen Waddle posted 10/70/2 receiving in this matchup the last time the Jaguars played.
Alex Collins managed just 16/35 rushing and 1/9 receiving on 39% of the snaps last week, only to be outdone by Rashaad Penny, who could muster just nine yards on six carries and a 36% snap share in his first action since Week 1. Collins has now handled 15+ carries in three straight games with Pete Carroll really leaning into the run recently. The Jaguars are giving up just 3.7 YPC but they’re facing the fourth-most carries per game (25.2) and they’re allowing the second-most rushing TDs per game (1.3) to RBs this season.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 27.3 (11th)
Plays per game: 64.7 (23rd)
Pass: 63.3% (12th) | Run: 36.7% (21st)
Pace: 28.1 (18th)
Plays per game: 59.6 (32nd)
Pass: 58.8% (21st) | Run: 41.2% (12th)
For better or worse (mostly worse), the Seahawks are hell bent on running the ball every chance they get with Geno Smith under center. Despite it being blatantly obvious that their running game wasn’t working against one of the league’s best front-sevens in the Saints last week, HC Pete Carroll didn’t care. Alex Collins got 16 carries, averaged 2.19 YPC, and the Seahawks lost a winnable game. In Geno’s two starts, Seattle has gone an otherworldly (and league-leading) 59% run-heavy on early-downs and I’m positive that they are going to try and run a ton against Jacksonville again. For what it’s worth, there was a report that came out earlier this week that confirmed everyone’s suspicions: New OC Shane Waldron has little control over the offensive game planning. It’s all Carroll. And that’s a shame.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are running the ball… like they should! After inexplicably loading up Trevor Lawrence with 51 pass attempts in Week 1, the Jaguars have correctly turned into a run-first team and are now running the ball +7.6% above expectation in neutral situations (game within a score in the 1st-3rd quarter). That’s the third-highest rate in the league and it plays directly into their favor this week against this Seahawks run defense that has been shredded all year long. Expect a huge dose of James Robinson.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
Over the last four games for the Jags, James Robinson has carry shares of 52%, 60%, 58% and 89% from Week 6. During that stretch he’s averaging 22.5 FPG. And three of those opponents (Arizona, Cincinnati, and Tennessee) field stout run defenses. Seattle will field nothing remotely close to a top run defense. The ‘Hawks are permitting the third-most rushing YPG (134.1), second-most total YPR (414.7), and the second-most FPG to opposing RBs (31.1).
How much longer until Russell Wilson and Chris Carson return? The upside of the entire offense is reduced down in the neighborhood of 75% without The Professor. Geno Smith is simply stuck between a rock and a hard place trying to replace the future Hall of Famer. Although, Smith has not impressed… even from the expectations for a backup. Sorry folks, the TD reception for DK Metcalf last week benefited from a clear push-off. The reality is that Smith might need to be reminded that Tyler Lockett is on the roster. Geno’s game is so out of whack that he’s featuring Freddie Swain (nine targets) over Lockett (eight) the last two weeks.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
I think this could be an overall decent spot for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags’ passing game, but the entire M.O. of the Seahawks with Geno Smith at QB is to slow things down and try to prevent the offense from scoring a whole lot. And while Lawrence has been progressing as the season has gone on — our Greg Cosell has been glowing about his play — he still doesn’t have an inspiring group of receivers.
Check this quote out:
“He’s our best separator.” - #Jaguars HC Urban Meyer on Jamal Agnew.— Demetrius Harvey (@Demetrius82) October 25, 2021
Now that’s not supposed to be a dig at Jamal Agnew, who has converted from defensive back to become a legitimate quality NFL offensive weapon. It’s just more an indictment on Marvin Jones — who finally had a decent game in Week 6 before the bye — and Laviska Shenault. Jones and Shenault, by the numbers, have the better matchups, but I’m not willing to trust them as more than WR3s. You can take a shot on Dan Arnold if you need a TE this week, but he did disappoint in Week 6.
As Wes outlined above, expect this to be a James Robinson game. It could be low-scoring, but that plays into exactly what the Jags are good at offensively.
The Seahawks RB snaps this past week: Alex Collins (39%), Rashaad Penny (36%), Travis Homer (21%). Penny actually led the backfield in routes (11) followed by Homer (10) then Collins (4). Collins was clearly not 100% against the Saints, and you wonder if getting Penny’s feet wet is an indication that they plan to use him more. These guys are FLEX options, though Collins remains my favorite (he is questionable with a groin injury).
Pete Carroll is going to run the ball regardless — and his fingerprints are all over the offense. Poor OC Shane Waldron.
Play-calling has been a clear issue for the #Seahawks offense.— 710 ESPN Seattle (@710ESPNSeattle) October 26, 2021
"I don’t believe that it’s coming from Shane Waldron," @jtheaps9 said.
He then added: "I would just tell you that there is a lot of dysfunction that is going on behind the scenes right now."https://t.co/l72WJhNQzP
Anyway, I can’t feel good about any receiver here outside of DK Metcalf, but if you’re playing Tyler Lockett, at least it’s a much better matchup than the Saints game last week. But since exploding for 8/178/1 in Week 2 — a game in which he got hurt — Lockett has just 17/159/0 receiving in five games.