Take note: Use the provided projected ownership percentages to determine whether each GPP option listed is best suited to either small- (3-20 Entry Max) or large-field formats (150).
For more in depth analysis and matchup details, head over to Advanced Matchups.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson, SEA at ARI ($6.3K DK | $7.5K FD)
Projected Ownership:
DraftKings: 2-5%
FanDuel: 3-6%
Week 17 Opponent: Detroit Lions
Results: 20-of-29, 236 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 27.8 FPs
Week 18 Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Schemes: Top-15 rates of Cover 1, 3, 4, and 6
Allowances:
3rd-most FPG to QBs the last four weeks (21.1)
2nd-most FPG to QBs through the air the last four weeks (20.5)
History of Scheme Success:
vs. Cover 3 (last 3 years):
12 TDs vs. 4 INTs,
6th-most FP/Db (0.44)
4th-highest passer rating (103.7)
vs. Cover 4 (last 3 years):
6 TDs vs. 2 INTs
8th-most FP/Db (0.36)
7th-highest passer rating (98.8)
vs. Cover 6 (last 3 years):
4 TDs vs. 2 INT
9th-most FP/Db (0.36)
7th-highest passer rating (100.5)
Game Type: BOTH
The Bottom Line: The only other QBs on The Professor's level of excellence when attacking each of the major zone coverages are Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes II, and Matthew Stafford. And Arizona DC Vance Joseph has hesitated to field Cover 1 since the backup perimeter CBs that have been thrust into featured roles. Zones all day, my friends.
Taysom Hill, NO at ATL ($6.2K DK | $7.7K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 5-7%
- FanDuel: 1-3%
Week 17 Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Results: 17-of-28, 222 passing yards, 1 TDs, 0 INT, 17.4 FPs
Week 18 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Schemes: The highest rate of Cover 2 and 10th-highest of Cover 1
Allowances:
6th-most total FPG to opposing offenses (94.2)
3rd-most FPG to QBs (19.5)
3rd-most FPG on the ground to QBs (4.08)
10th-most FPG on the ground to RBs (14.7)
7th-most rushing YPG (127.9)
4th-highest rushing first down rate (28.1%)
5th-most rushing TDs/game (1.19)
Scheme History of Success:
- Need more data from Hill against Cover 1 and Cover 2 to draw reliable conclusions
Game Type: BOTH
The Bottom Line: With QB9/QB7 pricing and the guarantee of N’Orleans pushing the envelope with a 32% chance remaining to claim a playoff bid, Hill is always someone drawing my attention with his ground-work, and the only barrier to a big day is A.J. Terrell.
Favorite Alternatives
Josh Allen, BUF vs. NYJ ($8.1K DK | $8.8K FD | ExpOwn: 13-16% | Game: CASH/SE)
Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. SF ($6.7K DK | $7.4K FD | ExpOwn: 6-10% | Game: CASH/SE)
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NE ($5.3K DK | $6.5K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor, IND at JAX ($9.3K DK | $10.2K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 21-24%
- FanDuel: 22-25%
Week 17 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Results: 20/108/1 rushing, 1/6/0 on 2 targets receiving, 18.4 FPs
Week 18 Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Allowances:
8th-most rushing YPG (127.1)
3rd-most rushing TDs/game (1.38)
5th-most FPG to RBs (16.7)
5th-most RZ touches/game (5.19)
4th-most GTG carries/game (2.88)
2nd-most FPG on the ground to RBs over the last four weeks (19.3)
2nd-most RZ touches/game over the last four weeks (6.50)
The most GTG carries/game over the last four weeks (3.50)
Game Type: Cash/Single-Entry (SE)
The Bottom Line: Threw down a 30/253/2 rushing extravaganza that returned a cool 38.4 FPs in the final game of last season against the Jags. The Colts need a victory over Jacksonville this week to secure their playoff ticket and that’s plenty of motivation for Indy to ride JT into the playoffs.
Samaje Perine, CIN at CLE ($5.3K DK | $6.5K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 1-3%
- FanDuel: <1%
Week 17 Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
Results: 1/4/0 rushing, 1/10/0 on 1 target, 2.4 FPs
Week 18 Opponent: Cleveland Browns
Allowances:
- 17th-most FPG to RBs (12.7)
- 16th-most FPG to RBs over the last four weeks (14.2)
- 8th-most FPG to RBs over the last two weeks (26.1)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: We’re currently looking at a mix of rain, snow, consistent 18 MPH winds, and 41 MPH gusts on Sunday afternoon inside FirstEnergy Stadium. Without Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine’s Week 18 upside is all about the featured opportunity, providing him with as many as 20 touches in poor weather conditions.
Favorite Alternatives
Rashaad Penny, SEA at ARI ($6.5K DK | $7.8K FD | ExpOwn: 20-24% | Game: CASH/SE)
Devin Singletary, BUF vs. NYJ ($6.0K DK | $6.7K FD | ExpOwn: 15-18% | Game: CASH/SE)
AJ Dillon, GB at DET ($6.2K DK | $7.3K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Damien Harris, NE at MIA ($6.7K DK | $7.4K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. GB ($6.8K DK | $7.5K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: Less than 1% 😎
- FanDuel: Less than 1% 😎
Week 16 Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Results: 8/111/1 on 10 targets, 2/23/1 rushing, 35.4 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: Green Bay Packers
Schemes: 4th-highest rate of Cover 4 and 5th-highest of Cover 6
Allowances:
- 25th-most FPG to WRs (33.2)
- 11th-most TDs/game to WRs (1.06)
- 21st-most FPG to WRs over the last four weeks (30.6)
- 3rd-highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (3.92%)
- 8th-highest third-down conversion rate (43.2%)
Individual Matchup: Chandon Sullivan
Scheme History of Success:
- Need more data from St. Brown against Cover 4 and Cover 6 to draw reliable conclusions
Game Type: BOTH
The Bottom Line: Over the last five weeks, ARSB has accumulated the third-most targets (54), second-most receptions (43), fifth-most receiving yards (451), fourth-most TDs (four), sixth-most YPRR (2.59), and fifth-most yards after the catch (189) among all WRs. He’ll be owned in under 1% of lineups!
Gabriel Davis, BUF vs. NYJ ($4.9K DK | $5.2K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: Less than 1% 😎
- FanDuel: Less than 1% 😎
Week 17 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Results: 3/40/0 on 4 targets, 7.0 FPs
Week 18 Opponent: New York Jets
Allowances:
23rd-most FPG to WRs (33.4)
15th-most FPG to WRs over the last four weeks (33.5)
4th-most FPG to WRs over the last two weeks (47.6)
2nd-highest completion rate (70%)
4th-most passing YPG (259.7)
2nd-most YPA (7.68)
2nd-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (18.9%%)
The highest passing first down rate (40.5%)
The most total YPG (396.0)
Scheme: The highest rate of Cover 4 over the last eight weeks, 19% more than any other defense
History of Scheme Success:
- vs. Cover 4 (last 3 years):
- 5th-most FP/Rt (0.53)
- 2nd-most YPRR (3.18)
- The most YPT (21.8)
- 3rd-highest Targeted Passer Rating (144.3)
- Air Yards/Target spikes by 25%
Individual Matchup: Brandin Echols
Coverage Metrics: 1.38 YPCS (9th-most), 0.26 FP/CS (29th-most), 0.15 AY/CS (19th-most), 18th-highest completion rate on deep targets
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: Davis is one of the top-three Cover 4 WRs in the game, collecting targets from one of the top-three Cover 4 QBs in the game, and facing the defense using the highest rate of Cover 4, by a wide margin.
DK Metcalf, SEA at ARI ($6.9K DK | $7.2K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 14-17%
- FanDuel: 18-21%
Week 17 Opponent: Detroit Lions
Results: 6/63/3 on 9 targets, 30.9 FPs
Week 18 Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Scheme: Top-15 rates of Cover 1, 3, 4, and 6
Allowances:
5th-most FPG to WRs (38.0)
2nd-most RZ Touches/game (2.19)
The most TDs/game to WRs (1.50)
The most FPG to WRs over the last four weeks (51.4)
Individual Matchup: Kevin Peterson
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: The weakest link in the secondary chain for Arizona will be responsible for one of the most explosive wideouts in the game. Metcalf is on a hot streak with 4 TDs and drawing 33% of Russell Wilson’s targets over the last three games.
Favorite Alternatives
Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. NE ($6.3K DK | $6.8K FD | ExpOwn: 16-19% | Game: CASH/SE)
Brandin Cooks, HOU vs. TEN ($6.3K DK | $7.1K FD | ExpOwn: 18-21% | Game: CASH/SE)
Cyril Grayson, TB vs. CAR ($4.4K DK | $5.6K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
Marquez Callaway, NO at ATL ($5.0K DK | $5.9K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz, ARI vs. SEA ($5.3K DK | $5.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 12-15%
- FanDuel: 16-19%
Week 17 Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Results: 7/41/0 on 9 targets, 11.1 FPs
Week 18 Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Schemes: 5th-highest rate of Cover 2 and 3rd-highest rate of Cover 3
Scheme History:
vs. Cover 2 (last 3 years):
13th-most FP/Rt (0.35)
vs. Cover 3 (last 3 years):
12th-most FP/Rt (0.38)
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Ertz has quickly ascended toward reclaiming his spot among the top-seven TEs in the game. And consistent 85+% route and 25+% target rates will be go-to’s for as long as they exist.
John Bates, WAS at NYG ($3.0K DK | $4.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: Less than 1%
- FanDuel: Less than 1%
Week 17 Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
Results: 3/35/0 on 4 targets, 6.5 FPs
Week 18 Opponent: New York Giants
Schemes: 4th-highest rate of Cover 3
Allowances:
The most RZ touches/game to opposing TEs (1.13)
10th-highest completion rate (66%)
12th-highest passing first down rate (35.8%)
16th-most passing YPG (233.5)
11th-most FPG to TEs over the last four weeks (12.7)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: The only real allure toward Bates is his TE24/TE27 pricing and somewhere in the neighborhood of running 90% of his team’s routes without Ricky Seals-Jones available.
Favorite Alternatives
Pat Freiermuth, PIT at BAL ($4.6K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: 2-5% | Game: BOTH)
Geoff Swaim, TEN at HOU ($3.3K DK | $4.7K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Brevin Jordan, HOU vs. TEN ($2.7K DK | $4.6K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Defense/Special Teams
Washington Football Team, WAS at NYG ($3.1K DK | $5.0K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: 10-13% (CASH/SE)
- FanDuel: 2-4% (BOTH)
Indianapolis Colts, IND at JAX ($3.8K DK | $4.8K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: Less than 1% (BOTH)
- FanDuel: 4-7% (CASH/SE)
Favorite Alternatives
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN at CLE ($3.0K DK | $3.7K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
Miami Dolphins, MAI vs. NE ($2.4K DK | $3.5K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
