Take note: Use the provided projected ownership percentages to determine whether each GPP option listed is best suited to either small- (3-20 Entry Max) or large-field formats (150).
For more in depth analysis and matchup details, head over to Advanced Matchups.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford, LAR at BAL ($7.1K DK | $7.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
DraftKings: 4-6%
FanDuel: 2-4%
Week 16 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Results: 21-of-37, 197 passing yards, 1 TDs, 3 INTs, 9.7 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Schemes: 11th-highest rate of Cover 1 and 7th-highest of Cover 6
Allowances:
2nd-most FPG to QBs (19.9)
The most FPG to QBS over the last four games (24.1)
The most passing YPG (280.5)
The most YPA (7.76)
The highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (19.9%)
The highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (4.69%)
History of Scheme Success:
vs. Cover 1 (last 3 years):
14 TDs vs. 4 INTs,
7th-most FP/Db (0.49)
6th-highest passer rating (104.7)
vs. Cover 6 (last 3 years):
6 TDs vs. 0 INT
The most FP/Db (0.47)
2nd-highest passer rating (110.2)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: Stafford maintains the top spot. He played the worst game of his season last week, but the Ravens offer him the perfect get-right opportunity. It’s mind-boggling that his anticipated ownership is so low. In a spot with nuclear potential, the ownership percentage numbers are low enough that he is a consideration in small- and large-field GPPs.
Taysom Hill, NO vs. CAR ($6.0K DK | $7.7K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: Less than 1% 😎
- FanDuel: Less than 1% 😎
Week 15 Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Results: 13-of-27, 154 passing yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 9.46 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Schemes: 11th-highest rate of Cover 3
Allowances:
12th-most rushing YPG (118.5)
13th-most rushing TD/game (0.93)
13th-most FPG to QBs through the air the last four weeks (14.4)
9th-most FPG to QBs in the last two weeks (17.6)
Scheme History of Success:
vs. Cover 3 (last 3 years):
5th-most FP/Db (0.45)
The highest FP/Db increase to an overall average among qualified QBs (64%)
67% of TDs thrown on only 32% of dropbacks
Game Type: CASH/Single-Entry (SE)
The Bottom Line: Averaging 59.4 yards, has scored 6 rushing TDs in 7 career starts, and 11.1 FPG on the ground alone. We only need 18 FPs on DK and 19.3 on FD to justify the investment with his QB12/QB8 pricing.
Favorite Alternatives
Trey Lance, SF vs. HOU ($4.8K DK | $6.4K FD | ExpOwn: 12-16% | Game: Cash/SE)
Jalen Hurts, PHI at WAS ($6.6K DK | $7.9K FD | ExpOwn: 9-13% | Game: Cash/SE)
Davis Mills, HOU at SF ($5.5K DK | $6.4K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Running Backs
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB at NYJ ($5.2K DK | $5.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: <1%
- FanDuel: <1%
Week 16 Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Results: 7/70/1 rushing, 13 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: New York Jets
Allowances:
13th-most rushing YPG (115.6)
15th-most TDs/game (0.86)
10th-most FPG to RBs last 4 weeks (23.8)
5th-most FPG on the ground to RBs last 4 weeks (18.0)
4th-most red zone (RZ) touches/game to RBs last 4 weeks (6.33)
10th-most RZ targets/game to RBs last 4 weeks (1.0)
Game Type: CASH/Single-Entry (SE)
The Bottom Line: After stealing the show last week, Bruce Arians labeled Vaughn as a “lead dog.” Considering the list of issues the Buccaneers have had with Ronald Jones II in a featured role, those words from Arians are very significant. Vaughn could find himself in the featured role much sooner than the field anticipates. Possibly as soon as this week with RB33/RB41 pricing and he’ll be facing the JETS.
Sony Michel, LAR at BAL ($5.8 DK | $7.1 FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 18-22%
- FanDuel: 21-25%
Week 16 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Results: 27/131/1 rushing, 1/4/0 receiving, on 4 targets, 20.5 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Allowances:
The most total FPG to opposing offenses in the last four weeks (108.4)
12-fewest FPG to RBs this season (22.1)
11th-most FPG to RBs in the last four weeks (23.8)
Fifth-most GTG carries/game to RB in the last four weeks (3.0)
2nd-most FPG to RBs in the last two weeks (29.9)
Game Type: CASH/SE (DK), BOTH (FD)
The Bottom Line: Darrell Henderson Jr. is now on IR and I’ll be surprised if Cam Akers handles anything more than five touches only five months removed from rupturing his Achilles. And it’s very likely that Michel will shoulder a similar workload to one he took on last week: 82% of carries, 74% of team routes, and an 11% target share. That’s elite-level involvement, friends.
Favorite Alternatives
David Montgomery, CHI at NYG ($6.5K DK | $7.2K FD | ExpOwn: 20-24% | Game: CASH/SE)
Damien Harris, NE vs. JAX ($6.6K DK | $7.4K FD | ExpOwn: 9-13% | Game: CASH/SE)
Darrel Williams, KC at CIN ($5.8K DK | $6.2K FD | ExpOwn: 1-4% 😃 | Game: GPP)
Rashaad Penny, SEA vs. DET ($6.1K DK | $6.9K FD | ExpOwn: <1-2% | Game: GPP)
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp, LAR at BAL ($9.5K DK | $10.2K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 14-17%
- FanDuel: 11-15%
Week 16 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Results: 10/109/0 on 13 targets, 24.3 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Schemes: 11th-highest rate of Cover 1 and seventh-highest of Cover 6
Allowances:
- The most FPG to offenses the last 4 weeks (99.9)
- The most FPG to WRs (41.7)
- The most RZ touches/game (2.29)
Individual Matchup: Unknown
Scheme History of Success:
- vs. Cover 1 (last 3 years):
- 0.68 FP/Rt (7th-most)
- 3.67 YPRR (4th-most)
- 12.2 YPT (6th-most)
- Luring a 30% target rate (8th-highest)
- vs. Cover 1 (last 3 years):
- 0.54 FP/Rt (3rd-most)
- 2.43 YPRR (9th-most)
- 27% target share (2nd-highest).
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Even with WR1 pricing in each of his last 8 games, Kupp has at least covered 93% of his floor in 67% of his games… Kupp is generating at least 30 FPs at the same rate that the other WRs with top-10 pricing are simply hitting their floor. With Tavon Young and Ar'Darius Washington likely to be labeled as doubtful, it’s entirely unclear who will even be responsible for covering the most dominant force in the NFL this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at SEA ($6.0K DK | $6.9K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 8-12%
- FanDuel: 1-3% 😎
Week 16 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Results: 9/91/1 on 11 targets, 26 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Allowances:
8th-highest completion rate (68%)
2nd-most passing YPG (270.9)
7th-most YPA (6.98)
6th-highest passing first down rate (37.5%)
9th-most receptions/game to WRs (13.2)
2nd-most FPG to WRs over the last two weeks (35.6)
Individual Matchup: Ugo Amadi
Coverage Metrics: 1.39 YPCS (6th-most), 0.29 FP/CS (7th-most), 106.7 TPR (9th-highest)
Game Type: BOTH
The Bottom Line: At a certain level of volume and production, the decision is entirely made for us in regards to exposure. I will have a difficult time removing the smile from my face if the ownership calculations for ARSB hold up.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA at TEN ($6.7K DK | $7.0K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 7-11%
- FanDuel: 10-14%
Week 16 Opponent: Chicago Bears
Results: 10/92/1 on 12 targets, 25.2 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Scheme: 8th-highest rate of Cover 4 and top-15 rates of Cover 1 and Cover 2
Allowances:
2nd-most FPG to WRs (41.4)
The most receptions/game (14.9)
The most receiving YPG (191.5)
6th-most RZ touches/game (2.0)
Individual Matchup: Elijah Molden
Coverage Metrics: 1.26 YPCS (12th-most), 0.28 FP/CS (10th-most), and a 108.3 TPR (seventh-highest)
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Waddle has submitted a diversified coverage profile during his first professional season that leaves without an obvious weakness and the Titans have been freely handing out FPs to opposing WRs all season.
Favorite Alternatives
A.J. Brown, TEN vs. MIA ($7.2K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: 17-21% | Game: CASH/SE)
Hunter Renfrow, LV at IND ($6.5K DK | $6.9K FD | ExpOwn: 7-11% | Game: CASH/SE)
Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. KC ($5.4K DK | $6.2K FD | ExpOwn: <1-2% | Game: GPP)
Braxton Berrios, NYJ vs. TB ($3.7K DK | $5.3K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert, PHI at WAS ($5.1K DK | $5.8K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 7-11%
- FanDuel: 12-16%
Week 16 Opponent: New York Giants
Results: 2/28/0 on 4 targets, 4.8 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: Washington Football Team
Schemes: 11th-highest rate of Cover 3 and 7th-highest of Cover 4
Scheme History:
vs. Cover 3 (last 3 years):
8th-most FP/Rt (0.42)
vs. Cover 4 (last 3 years):
10th-most FP/Rt (0.36)
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Since Zach Ertz’s trade to Arizona in Week 7, Goedert has run a route on 88% of team passing plays, and collected a 26% target share. Those rates are truly elite. And the Football Team has handed out the most total FPG to opposing offenses (98.5) this season and the fourth-most to TEs during their last two games (22.2).
Mo Alie-Cox, IND vs. LV ($2.8K DK | $4.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: Less than 1%
- FanDuel: Less than 1%
Week 16 Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Results: 2/42/1 on 4 targets, 6.2 FPs
Week 17 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Schemes: The highest rate of Cover 3
Allowances:
7th-highest completion rate (68%)
5th-most receptions/game to TEs (5.6)
8th-most receiving YPG to TEs (60.7)
3rd-most TDs/game to TEs (0.67)
4th-most FPG to TEs (16.0)
Scheme History (last 3 seasons):
vs. Cover 3:
14th-most FP/Rt (0.37)
6h-most YPRR (2.17)
The most YPT (12.5)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: Jack Doyle appears to be headed toward a doubtful tag. Alie-Cox has the most untapped potential at the position in the league. With Carson Wentz out of commission this week, Sam Ehlinger could rely on MAC quite a bit in the short passing game, and inside the red zone.
Favorite Alternatives
Foster Moreau, LV at IND ($3.8K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: 7-9% DK and 1-3% FD | Game: BOTH)
Zach Ertz, ARI at DAL ($5.2K DK | $5.5K FD | ExpOwn: 10-14% | Game: CASH/SE)
Gerald Everett, SEA vs. DET ($4.1K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
Defense/Special Teams
New Orleans Saints, NO vs. CAR ($3.4K DK | $4.7K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: 9-12% (CASH/SE)
- FanDuel: 8-11% (CASH/SE)
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI at WAS ($3.7K DK | $4.3K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: Less than 1% (GPP)
- FanDuel: 5-8% (CASH/SE)
Favorite Alternatives
New England Patriots, NE vs. JAX ($3.9K DK | $5.0K FD | ExpOwn: 8-11% | Game: CASH/SE)
Tennessee Titans, TEN vs. MIA ($3.1K DK | $4.0K FD | ExpOwn: 7-10% DK and <1% FD | Game: CASH/SE DK and GPP FD)
