Barfield's Best Bets: Week 14

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Barfield's Best Bets: Week 14

GAME PICKS

Steelers at Vikings

Bet – Over 43.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – Beyond this potentially being a season-deciding game for both sides, this is a really fun game for fantasy/betting. This is the second-fastest game of Week 14 in adjusted combined pace and the third-highest volume matchup in adjusted plays per game, which makes the over/under look a bit low in my view. The Steelers are playing a lot faster and running way more plays per game because their rushing attack has devolved back into its 2020 form. Najee Harris has been fine, but their offensive line is second-from-last in generating before contact yards over the last eight weeks. As a result, the Steelers are throwing it way more than they want and rank eighth in pass plays per game (40.6) over the last two months. Meanwhile, the Vikings last five games have all been higher scoring with five-straight hitting 47 or more points and 4-of-5 going over 55 total points. It obviously hasn’t resulted in enough wins, but the Vikings are constantly finding ways to put points on the board after a mid-season lull – they’ve scored 26+ in five-straight. Predicting the Vikings has been hard all year, but this game sets up as another high scoring affair.

49ers at Bengals

Bet – Under 49.5 (-120, SuperBook) – bought half-point

Why? – While the total in this game is the third-highest on the slate (49), the pace between these two offenses leaves a lot to be desired and could slow down what looks like a fun matchup overall. 49ers-Bengals has the second-worst adjusted combined pace on the slate, which is saying something considering Week 14 is filled with a lot of mediocre matchups.

PLAYER PROPS

Thursday Night Football

K.J. Osborn

Bet – Over 41.5 yards (-110, BetMGM / -118, SuperBook)

Why? – Full-time player with Thielen out. Ran a route on 94% of the Vikings pass plays last week – a season-high. Steelers have hemorrhaged the ninth-most YPG to WRs over the last five weeks (158.2).

Diontae Johnson

Bet – Over 79.5 yards (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – Over this total in four-straight with 12.8 targets per game in this stretch. Claypool dinged up. No team has given up more YPG to WRs than the Vikings over the last five weeks (190.8).

Pat Freiermuth

Bet – Anytime TD (+240, SuperBook / +230, PointsBet)

Why? – Has 5 TDs in his last 7 games while leading the team in end-zone targets (6) in this stretch. Vikings gave up a TD to Josiah Deguara three weeks ago and allowed two TDs to Lions TEs last week.

Dede Westbrook

Bet – Under 20.5 receiving yards (-125, PointsBet)

Why? – No clue what’s up with this number.

Sunday / Monday Games

Cam Newton

Bet – Over 30.5 rushing yards (-115, DK / -115, BetMGM / -118, SuperBook / -120, FOXBet / -125, SuperBook)

Why? – Snagged this on every book I’m registered for. This line should easily be 35+. After firing Joe Brady, HC Matt Rhule once again reiterated that he wants to run the ball way more and I absolutely think that Cam is going to be a huge part of that. Cam ran it 10 times for 46 yards and a score back in his first start of the year in Week 11, but the Panthers got away from that the following week as Cam ran for just 5 yards. Every single mobile QB that Atlanta has faced has gone over this total – Jalen Hurts (7/62), Daniel Jones (8/39), Taylor Heinicke (5/43), Sam Darnold (8/66), and Trevor Lawrence (5/39).

I also grabbed Cam Rushing TD on SuperBook at +180 odds. Their odds are a bit inflated there since this is technically an Anytime TD bet… most books have Cam Anytime TD at +130 to +150 and I like that juice, too.

Chuba Hubbard

Bet – Under 15.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet / -115, FOXBet)

Why? – This is in the 12.5-13.5 range in other books. Bet Panthers go run-heavy here. Abdullah ran 11 routes to Hubbard’s 4 and out-snapped him (67% to 46%) after CMC went down in Week 12.

Kyle Pitts

Bet – Under 50.5 yards (-115, FOXBet)

Why? – Under this total in 7-of-12 games, including three-straight. Panthers giving up the fourth-fewest YPG to WRs. We have Pitts projected for 39 yards.

Tajae Sharpe

Bet – Under 25.5 yards (-125, PointsBet / -128, FOXBet)

Why? – Under this total in 5-of-6 with Ridley out. Panthers giving up the fourth-fewest YPG to WRs.

Devonta Freeman

Bet – Over 11.5 carries (-130, SuperBook / -135, BetMGM)

Why? – Over this total in four of his last 5 games. Coming off season-high 69% of the snaps. We have Freeman projected for 15 carries.

Austin Hooper

Bet – Over 30.5 receiving yards (-128, FOXBet / -131, PointsBet)

Why? – Njoku and Bryant both out – Hooper is the last man standing. Ravens giving up the second-most YPG to TEs (67.5).

Marquise Brown

Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (-104, SuperBook / -105, BetMGM / -110, DK)

Why? – Over this total in 6 of his last 7 games with 10.1 targets per game in this span. Had 8 catches vs. Browns in Week 12.

Tyler Lockett

Bet – Over 63.5 receiving yards

Why? – Has been over this total in three-straight. Metcalf (foot/illness) missed two practices this week. We have Lockett projected for 71 yards.

Bryan Edwards

Bet – Under 32.5 receiving yards (-115, SuperBook / -115, BetMGM / -115, DK)

Why? – Under this total in four of his last 5, Chiefs are giving up the fourth-fewest YPG (56.8) to perimeter WRs.

Zach Wilson

Bet – Under 230.5 passing yards (-121, PointsBet)

Why? – Under this total in 5 of 7 full starts, both of his two good WRs hurt (Davis and Moore), we have Wilson projected for 220 yards.

Alvin Kamara

Bet – Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115, DK / -118, FOXBet / -114, FD / -121, PointsBet)

Why? – All in. Full practice all week – so he’s back. Ingram out, Montgomery out (both with COVID). Jets have given up a league-high 139 YPG on the ground to RBs over the last five weeks. We have AK projected for 78 yards.

Terry McLaurin

Bet – Over 60.5 yards (-125, PointsBet / -125, FOXBet)

Why? – Light total for a player with McLaurin’s upside. Cowboys giving up the fourth-most YPG to WRs (175.8) over the last five weeks – including six individual WRs with 60+ yards. We have McLaurin projected for 75 yards.

Dak Prescott

Bet – Over 36.5 pass attempts (-114, FanDuel / -115, PointsBet)

Why? – Pollard out. Zeke playing hurt. Over this total in 5 of his last 6. I think we’ll see a very pass-heavy plan from Dallas against Washington front-seven giving up just 3.64 YPC (fifth-fewest) and 55.1 YPG (fewest) to RBs over the last eight weeks.

Kalif Raymond

Bet – Under 30.5 (-131, PointsBet)

Why? – Under this total in four of his last 5 games with just 2.8 targets per game in this span. Snaps were cut to a season-low 49% last week.

Emmanuel Sanders

Bet – Under 44.5 yards (-115, DK / -115, BetMGM)

Why? – Under this total in five of his last 6 games while averaging 2.5 receptions / 28 yards on 4.7 targets per game in this stretch. Bucs’ secondary is much healthier now.

Cole Beasley

Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (-115, DK / -115, PointsBet)

Why? – Bucs giving up eighth-most receptions per game to slot WRs (7.9) and will struggle to run the ball again – just like they have all season.

Tom Brady

Bet – Under 27.5 completions (-105, DK / -115, PointsBet)

Why? – Bills allowing a league-low 57.8% completion rate. Only one QB has completed 24 or more passes against Buffalo (Mahomes – 33 completions) and he needed 55 attempts to get there. We have Brady projected for 23 completions.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Bet – Over 39.5 yards (-115, BetMGM / -115, DK / -118, PointsBet)

Why? – Over this total in three-straight since making his return in Week 9. Has 10 & 9 targets in the last two games. Second in the NFL in aDOT (19.4) and Bears giving up sixth-most yards per target on deep throws.

AJ Dillon

Bet – Over 10.5 receiving yards (-125, PointsBet)

Why? – Has easily cruised over this total in four-straight with 42.5 YPG in this span. We have Dillon projected for 21 yards receiving.

ROI THIS SEASON

– Game Picks -32.9% (Overall: 15-20)

– Player Props +5.8% (Overall: 152-120)

– Total ROI +2%

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.

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