Cowboys at Saints
Bet – Over 45.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – We have a potentially really fun game on tap on TNF between the usually fast-paced, high-volume Cowboys and the newly fast-paced Saints. New Orleans is the second-fastest offense in seconds per play over the last eight weeks, continuing their trend of playing significantly faster as the season has gone on. My theory is that HC Sean Payton has emphasized playing faster for two main reasons: 1) their ball control offense clearly isn’t working and 2) their defense has regressed. The switch to Taysom Hill will assuredly lead to more emphasis on the run game, but the Saints could quickly turn a corner if they keep playing fast and Hill provides a much-needed spark. Dallas likely throwing even more than usual here also helps the shootout potential in this game. Especially with Ezekiel Elliott beat up, OC Kellen Moore will likely want to come out and get the passing game rolling against this Saints secondary that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game over their last five games. Overall, this is the No. 1 game for Week 13 in the pace / plays model by a considerable margin.
49ers at Seahawks
Bet – 49ers -3 (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – We’re watching the end of an era play out between Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll as one of those two are near locks to be out of Seattle in 2022. Sure, Wilson is playing at less than 100%, but Carroll and his overly conservative ways are interfering with their offensive plan to a point where this entire team is just dysfunctional. Since Wilson returned three weeks ago, Seattle is averaging a pitiful 52 plays per game. That’s easily a league-low. Their offense's inability to generate long, scoring possessions has melted into keeping their defense on the field. The Seahawks are facing a league-high 73.4 plays per game defensively, which is by far a league-high. I have no clue how the markets view this game as tight as just a field goal in the 49ers favor, especially considering San Francisco is rolling offensively with 30+ points scored in four of their last five games.
Thursday Night Football
Bet – Over 46.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM & -118, SuperBook & -115, DK)
Why? – Extremely light total with no Kamara. Ingram is healthy, too – he practiced in full all week. Ingram had 47 and 88 rushing yards in his two spot starts in Weeks 10-11. Taysom starting will help open up rushing lanes. We have Ingram projected for 60 yards rushing.
Bet – Under 35.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet & -118, FoxBet)
Why? – Has been held under this total in five of his last 6 games. Saints likely to go run-heavy with Taysom.
Bet – Over 60.5 receiving yards (-110, FOXBet & -115, SuperBook)
Why? – With Cooper and Gallup back, Lamb will get to slide back into his natural position in the slot. That is excellent news considering that the Saints are giving up the third-most YPG (107.9) to opposing slot WRs. We have Lamb projected for 77 yards.
Bet – Anytime TD (+200, BetMGM)
Why? – A lot of juice for a Taysom rushing score. In his four spot starts last year, Taysom got seven carries inside of the 10-yard line and scored 4 TDs.
Sunday / Monday Games
Bet – Under 252.2 passing yards (-115, DK & -115, SuperBook)
Why? – Ryan has been under 200 yards in four of his last five games. Bucs D getting healthier and only allowing 218.9 YPG over the last eight weeks (fifth-fewest). We have Ryan projected for 225 yards.
Bet – Under 56.5 yards (-115, BetMGM & -118, SuperBook)
Why? – Outside of his games against the Jets and Dolphins in Weeks 5 and 7, Pitts is averaging 6.4 targets, 3.4 receptions, 44.1 yards, It’s so easy to take out Pitts – he’s their only decent receiver. We have him projected for 41 yards.
Bet – Under 25.5 yards (-121, PointsBet & -118, FOXBet)
Why? – Under this total in 9-of-11 games. Has slipped to fourth among Falcons in routes – 64% over the last three weeks. Bucs D getting Carlton Davis back in the secondary.
Bet – Over 15.5 rushing yards (-115, PointsBet & -115, BetMGM)
Why? – Herbert’s legs are starting to be a big part of this offense – he has 22, 90, and 36 rush yards over his last three games. Bengals have given up 31 (Fields), 36 (Lawrence), and 88 (Lamar) rush yards to the three mobile QBs they’ve faced.
Bet – Under 30.5 receiving yards (-121, PointsBet)
Why? – Has been under 30 yards in four-straight and has five targets total since Josh Reynolds was made a starter two weeks ago.
Bet – Under 32.5 pass attempts (-125, PointsBet)
Why? – Wentz is averaging 28.2 attempts per game in the Colts 6 wins and 41.7 in their 6 losses. Colts are huge favorites here.
Bet – Under 50.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet & -115, FOXBet)
Why? – Under 50 yards in 6 of last 8 games, Rams giving up the ninth-fewest YPG (63.5) to outside WRs. We have Jones projected for 40 yards.
Bet – Over 17.5 carries (-104, SuperBook & -115, DK & -105, BetMGM & -105, DK)
Why? – Grabbed this on four different books. Since his Week 10 bye, Gibson has averaged 24 carries per game. Raiders facing 22.9 RB carries per game (11th-most). McKissic out. We have Gibson projected for 20 carries.
Bet – Over 61.5 receiving yards (-112, SuperBook & -115, DK & -115, BetMGM)
Why? – Has double-digit targets in five of his last 6 games, off the injury report, Haden is out, we have Hollywood projected for 70 yards.
Bet – Over 35.5 receiving yards (-121, PointsBet & -120, FOXBet)
Why? – Got near full-time usage last week in first start with Eric Ebron out as he ran a route on 74% of Steelers’ pass plays. Ravens giving up the second-most YPG (70.4) to TEs.
Bet – Over 50.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet & -105, FOXBet)
Why? – Chiefs more vulnerable through the slot and trailing game-script likely. We have Jeudy projected for 59 yards.
ROI THIS SEASON
– Game Picks -26.5% (Overall: 15-18)
– Player Props +14.5% (Overall: 139-97)
– Total ROI +8.8%