Last week, I lost one prop likely due to an injury, another by a single yard, and yet another because Marquez Valdez-Scantling couldn’t make a single easy catch, so I was very close to going 14-1 in Week 13.
But I’m not going to complain too much about progress, and we are now 21-9 the last two weeks on these props, so I may have turned a corner. My goal is to finish around 58% this season to make things respectable - and then to push things up over 60% in the playoffs.
Last week’s record: 11-4 Season record: 100-91
Jalen Hurts (Phi, vs. NO) OVER 39.5 rushing yards on DK – This is a tough matchup for Hurts and when he attempts to pass the ball, his guys will usually be covered well - which will prompt him to run. And they will also call a lot of designed runs. HC Doug Peterson’s advice to him for his first start is to be himself. His identity as a football player is running the ball, so we will see well over 10 carries. And he’s a great runner, so he will average more than 4.0 YPC and he will beat this number (unless he gets pulled).
Wayne Gallman (NYG, vs. Ari) OVER 55.5 rushing yards on William Hill – Gallman is feeling it right now in the running game, and he’s averaging 4.9 YPC in his last four games with 18 carries a game. The offense will get a boost with the return of Daniel Jones, and the matchup is overall positive, with the Cards giving up 4.4 YPC to RBs the last four weeks but also with the Cardinals offense looking at a tough matchup and unlikely to have a big lead.
Jonathan Taylor (Ind, at LV) OVER 53.5 rushing yards on BETMGM – His total is a few yards higher on some other sites, which I’m fine with, but I’ll go with the lowest total found on BETMGM. I’m making this pick despite HC Frank Reich, who still kinda refuses to give Taylor the ball. In this one, Taylor should get to this number almost by accident, just like last week. Or, they gain a clue and feed him the ball early, in which case this is a win by the end of the third quarter.
David Montgomery (Chi, vs. Hou) OVER 55.5 rushing yards on William Hill – He’s now at 5.8 YPC (55/321/2 rushing) in his four full games with Mitchell Trubisky, and the Texans are hurting at WR this week. The matchup is fantastic, as the Texans are allowing league-highs in YPC (5.2) and rushing yards per game (139.8) to RBs.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF, vs. Was) OVER 55.5 receiving yards on William Hill – The guy is making it look easy with 5+ catches for 75+ yards in his last three. He really can’t be covered, and the TFT is certainly beatable on the back end.
Rob Gronkowski (TB, vs. Min) OVER 35.5 receiving yards on FanDuel – The Vikings gave up 10/86 receiving to Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaughnessy last week and won’t have LB Eric Kendricks, one of the best coverage LBs in the league. The Bucs will likely look to get Gronk the ball 1-2 more times than usual based on that injury alone.
Marquise Brown (Bal, at Cle) OVER 40.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – It’s like pulling teeth with this guy, but he had 5/101 on 6 targets in this matchup in Week 1, and the Browns still don’t have CB Denzel Ward, so I have to think Hollywood can get his this week. I wouldn’t even call 41 yards “getting his” but that’s all we need here.
Justin Jefferson (Min) OVER 73.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) - I think the Bucs are going to light it up, so Jefferson should get this on volume alone. He has 70+ yards in four straight and is second in the league in yards per route run (2.87), so with more volume likely, he’s a mortal lock to hit this, especially with the Bucs likely down a corner in Dean.
TY Hilton (Ind, at LV) OVER 53.5 receiving yards on FanDuel
Allen Lazard (GB, at Det) OVER 42.5 receiving yards on BETMGM
Diontae Johnson (Pit, at Buf) OVER 60.5 receiving yards on FanDuel
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC, at Mia) OVER 9.5 rushing attempts on William Hill
Stefon Diggs (Buf, vs. Pit) OVER 5.5 receptions on William Hill (-145)
Ronald Jones (TB, vs. Min) OVER 61.5 rushing yards on FanDuel
Sterling Shepard (NYG, vs. Sea) OVER 4.5 reception on BETMGM