Supermodel Tyra Banks has amassed $95M in earnings throughout her 30-year career.
Similarly, I have a model. It’s super – a true thing of beauty. And, while it hasn’t earned $95M, it has made me quite a bit of money over the years.
That model is the DFS SuperModel. Each week it will highlight the top-25 most mispriced players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While I can’t tell you what exactly goes into the DFS SuperModel, I can tell you what does not go into it – namely, our projections. For the most part, you should be deferring to those – primarily the FPTS/$ column you’ll find here – or use both together.
That’s what I’ll be doing in this article, using both resources to help me highlight the top main slate DFS Value Plays in any given week. Here’s Week 14:
Note 1: This is just the first-pass publish of the DFS SuperModel. The SuperModel and our projections will continue to update throughout the remainder of the week. (Saturday PM at the latest.)
Note 2: J.D. McKissic and Tony Pollard both ranked as values this week, but I’m going to talk about them in tomorrow’s article instead after we get some more news.
James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Model (DK: +891 / FD: +606)
For seemingly the 7th week in a row, Robinson ranks as a top-5 RB value on both sites per the DFS SuperModel. Might this also be (nearly) the 7th week in a row he smashes his salary-based expectation? I think the odds are good. Here’s what we had to say in the Week 14 XFP Report:
Robinson went undrafted in 99% of leagues this offseason, but he’s emerged as a quiet superstar and a likely league-winner for those of you who secured him off waivers early in the season.
Robinson played on 84% of the team’s snaps in Week 13, and ranks 1st in Snap% since Week 7 (83%). With Chris Thompson on I.R., he’s now a full-on bell cow, and maybe the best example of a true bell cow we have this year. And, for fantasy, that goes a long way.
Jacksonville is terrible, game script is consistently horrible, the offense is bad, and the offensive line is even worse. And yet, I’m confident Robinson continues to produce as a mid-range RB1. Why? Because a bell cow RB is the most valuable asset in fantasy.
Robinson ranks 4th among all RBs in fantasy points, averaging 18.7 FPG. He ranks 5th in total XFP, averaging 16.4 XFP per game. Since Week 7, he ranks 4th in XFP per game (19.0) and 2nd in FPG (20.0). He’s reached at least 90 yards from scrimmage in each of his 6 games over this span, and has hit that mark in 10 of 12 games this year. Start him with confidence as a top-5 option this week, in a top matchup against Tennessee – the Titans rank 6th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+3.7).
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
Model (DK: +786)
Derrick Henry gets stronger as the season goes on. Opposing defenses wear down, El Tractorcito does not. The Jaguars are giving up the 4th-most FPG to opposing RBs (28.2). In his last 2 winter meetings against Jacksonville, Henry averages an unreal 18.0 carries, 198.5 rushing yards, 3.0 rushing TDs, and 11.0 YPC. Henry has a massive ceiling but also a significantly underrated floor – he averages 23.6 DKFPG over his last 19 games, hitting 30.0 DKFP in 32% of those games and 19.0 DKFP in 68% of games. He’s rightfully a top-5 value on DraftKings, mispriced by $786 as per the DFS SuperModel.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Model (DK: +1005 / FD: +276)
Last week, unprovoked, one of my go-to tape experts sent me the following on Jones: “He hasn’t looked like his early-season self, most likely due to injury. Looks like he has lost a step of juice and isn’t breaking tackles at the same rate…up until last week where his burst was back and despite having his lowest fantasy output of the season, which was largely due to the game being out of hand early.”
What happened a few days later? He played on 66% of the team’s snaps (nearly a season-high) gashing a tough Eagles run defense for 130 yards on 15 carries while also adding 18 yards on 3 catches through the air. After a mid-season lull (perhaps due to injury like our anonymous tape expert suggested), Jones is now averaging 16.0 carries, 2.5 targets, and 119.0 YFS per game over his last 2 games.
Although last week’s matchup was tough – the Eagles came into the game ranking 2nd-best in YPC allowed (3.43) – this week’s matchup couldn’t be any better. The Lions are allowing opposing RBs to out-score their per-game average by a league-high 9.4 FPG. They rank 8th-worst in YPC allowed (4.60), 3rd-worst in rushing FPG allowed (19.3), 2nd-worst in receiving FPG allowed (13.3), and worst in total FPG allowed to opposing RBs (32.5). Included in that, of course, is the 48.6 DKFP Jones scored against them in Week 2.
He’s our top overall value on DraftKings per the DFS SuperModel, and it’s not hard to see why. But also keep in mind Derrick Henry is going to be far more highly owned, although he’s only averaging 0.8 DKFPG more than Jones this season (and despite of that weird mid-season lull).
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Model (DK: +894 / FD: +276)
Taylor is no doubt risky, but he’s also a top value, ranking as the 2nd-best overall value on DraftKings (+894). Here’s what we had to say about him in the Week 14 XFP Report:
Jonathan Taylor has reached 12.0 XFP only once since Week 3. That’s the bad news, but the good news is he’s been very productive and efficient in his last 2 games, averaging 19.0 FPG on 12.9 XFP per game. He’s also averaging 124.5 YFS and 5.17 YPC over this span. Still, he’s played on just 51% of the team’s snaps and handled just 50% of the backfield XFP. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s rewarded for his recent productivity and efficiency with a bigger workload in Week 14. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if Frank Reich sticks with the frustrating RBBC we’ve seen all year. But, in any case, he does have a soft matchup this week – Las Vegas is giving up the 5th-most FPG to opposing RBs (27.9). And he is mispriced on DraftKings, ranking as just the 22nd-most expensive RB on the slate.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
Model (DK: +649 / FD: +943)
Here’s what we said in the Week 14 XFP Report:
Montgomery has long been an XFP buy-low / regression candidate – in other words, he’s long seen good volume but has failed to capitalize on it – but he’s finally capitalizing on it. He’s hit 25.0 fantasy points in back-to-back games, but also in back-to-back pillow-soft matchups. These were, respectively, the 2nd-best (25.3) and best (27.1) games of his career. He’s played on 80% of the team’s snaps since Week 5 and averages 17.9 XFP and 16.7 FPG over this span. For perspective, those numbers rank 1st-, 3rd-, and 8th-most over this span. Maybe the recent upsurge in production is all a function of matchup, but, luckily, he gets another soft matchup this week – the Texans are giving up the 2nd-most FPG to opposing RBs (32.2).
He’s rightfully a top value on both sites, ranking 5th- (DK) and 1st- (FD) among RBs according to the SuperModel.
Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins
Model (DK: +539 / FD: +741)
Gaskin ranks 6th- (DK) and 3rd- (FD) among RBs in value per the DFS SuperModel. Here’s what we had to say in the Week 14 XFP Report:
Gaskin saw phenomenal usage in Week 13. On a 70% snap share (6th-most), he totaled 19.1 XFP (5th-most) on 23 touches. He was effective – compiling 141 yards from scrimmage – but not effective where it mattered most. He failed to find the end zone despite receiving 6 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line. All this near end zone work was worth an XTD of 1.44, meaning if he was perfectly average in touchdown efficiency (a stat that is far more driven by luck than skill) he should have scored 23.7 fantasy points instead of the 15.1 he ended his day with.
Since Week 5, Gaskin is playing on 71% of Miami’s snaps and averaging 19.5 XFP and 16.6 FPG. For perspective, those numbers rank 4th, 4th, and 10th-best over this span. He’s again glaringly a top volume-related value. He’ll have game script working against him this week, as 7.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs. That’s a concern – coupled with the fact that RB Patrick Laird out-targeted him last week – but the matchup otherwise isn’t terrible on paper. The Chiefs have given up the 14th-most FPG to opposing RBs (24.0) and rank 7th-worst in YPC allowed (4.64).
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Projections (DK: 3.58X / FD: 2.56X)
Jefferson isn’t just our top WR value of the week (per our projections), but he’s also our overall WR2 on the week, projected at 23.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Keep in mind, he’s just the 7th- (DK) and 9th-most (FD) expensive WR of the slate. While I do think that projection is bold (I personally have Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill well above him), I don’t disagree that Jefferson is a phenomenal value.
Since Week 3 he ranks 5th among all WRs in FPG (19.5). He’s now outscored Adam Thielen in 4 of their last 5 games, averaging 24.0 FPG to Thielen’s 20.0. He’s seen better volume (measured by XFP) in 5 of their last 7 games, averaging 15.4 XFP per game to Thielen’s 13.8. Tampa Bay was a tough matchup on paper, but they’ve given up an absurd 149.6 fantasy points to opposing WRs over their last 2 games. And they’re still likely to be without CB Jamel Dean who missed both of those games, after playing in 11-straight. His absence is pushing Slot CB Sean Murphy-Bunting out of position (to the outside), and his replacement (Ross Cockrell) is a player we’ve long targeted in DFS. Jefferson is rightfully a top value.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Projections (DK: 3.07X / FD: 2.03X)
Aiyuk is just the 27th-most expensive WR on DraftKings. But since Week 3, Aiyuk ranks 16th in XFP (14.8) and 15th in FPG (16.5). Since Week 7, Aiyuk ranks 5th in XFP (18.2) and 4th in FPG (20.2). Over this span (4 games), he’s averaging 10.0 targets (low of 7), 94.0 receiving yards (low of 75), and 21.0 DKFPG (low of 19.7). And uhh, yeah, wow. That’s crazy. Why is no one talking about that? This week’s matchup against Washington is somewhere around neutral or slightly below-average, but I don’t think that really matters much in light of the other numbers just cited.
And now keep this in mind: Since Week 3, Justin Jefferson ranks 22nd in XFP (14.0) and 5th in FPG (19.5). Since Week 7, he ranks 16th in XFP (14.8) and 9th in FPG (17.9). And, remember, Jefferson is also glaringly a top value this week.
So, at worst (since Week 3) Aiyuk is about 85% of Jefferson. At best (since Week 6), he’s 113% of Jefferson. And yet, his salary is just 73% that of Jefferson’s on DraftKings. And he’s likely to draw about 50% of Jefferson’s ownership. He’s a smash play.
Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers
Model (DK: +240 / FD: +694)
D.J. Moore is out for Week 14, due to a positive COVID test. Curtis Samuel was ruled as a close-contact and also could miss this week’s game. That’s massive for Anderson, who was already popping as a strong value. He ranks 13th in XFP per game (14.2) and 14th in receiving YPG (76.0). He ranks a bit lower in FPG, due entirely to bad touchdown variance. For the same reason, he’s long ranked as a top XFP- and touchdown-regression candidate. He draws a tough matchup this week, against a Broncos defense that ranks 5th-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing WR1s (-2.7), but he’s still a top value. And, in fact, on FanDuel – where he ranks as just the 25th-most expensive WR on the slate – he’s our top overall WR value (per the DFS SuperModel).
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Projections (DK: 3.55X / FD: 2.74X)
Last season, at Oklahoma, Jalen Hurts became 1 of just 5 Power-5 QBs to ever reach 3,500 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in a single season. Those other 4 QBs were Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Johnny Manziel. And his 2019 season ranks 5th-best in total fantasy points over the past 15 seasons, ahead of only Jackson, Manziel, and Patrick Mahomes.
On just 4 drives as the QB last week, Hurts dropped back 20 times, attempting 12 passes and rushing 5 times. He averaged 0.52 fantasy points per dropback with a 25% run rate, totaling 109 yards through the air (plus one touchdown and one interception) and 29 yards on the ground. If extrapolated to a full game (11.6 drives per game for the Eagles), we would expect about 84 rushing yards and 30.2 fantasy points. Keep in mind, his 3X expectation on DraftKings is just 15.3 DKFP.
Most rushing yards per game in final season of college:
Okay, that’s a foolishly small sample size. Fair. And this is a tough matchup. But I hope you get the point. Hurts has a massive ceiling and a massive floor for fantasy. The Konami Code advantage is real and it is glorious. He’s popping as our top QB value on both sites (per our projections), and will rightfully be the chalkiest QB in cash this week.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
Model (DK: +651 / FD: +763)
I’m fairly confident TJ Hockenson is poised for a break-out game. Will it happen this week? I don’t know, but he is a top value, ranking top-6 on both sites as per the DFS SuperModel.
Hockenson has exceeded 50 receiving yards in 8 games this year, 4 more than Darren Waller. He’s seeing phenomenal target-quality, earning 6 targets inside of the 5-yard-line (4th-most among receivers). But – with Kenny Golladay out – he’s now paired that with good target-volume. Excluding Week 10 (due to injury), Hockenson has seen at least 7 targets in each of his last 5 games. Over this span, he averages 14.1 XFP, 13.7 fantasy points, and 8.4 targets per game. He’s hit double-digit XFP in each of his last 5 games and double-digit fantasy points in each of his last 6 games (Week 10 still excluded). This week’s matchup is tough on paper, but Detroit will also be forced to lean pass-heavy as 7.5-point dogs in a game that offers the highest over/under of the slate (55.5).