August 7 Market Report

season

We hope you're enjoying this old content for FREE. You can view more current content marked with a FREE banner, but you'll have to sign up in order to access our other articles and content!

August 7 Market Report

Our Training Camp Market Report is intended to be a one-stop shop for the most important news from around the NFL during training camp. We’ll post a new Market Report every Friday during training camp to help our subscribers keep the pulse of what’s happening in the fantasy marketplace.

Note: All ADP data used in this article is courtesy of our partners at the NFFC and the data is used from drafts in the last month.

UPGRADES

Players whom we’re feeling more optimistic about based on training camp reports and injury news.

Quarterbacks

None of note.

Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) — The biggest fantasy domino to fall from the player opt-out clause came from Damien Williams when he decided to forego the 2020 season. The Chiefs told the world they were going to eventually use CEH as a bellcow back this season by using a first-round pick on him, but his time as the lead back is going to come much sooner than expected with Williams sitting out. Our Scott Barrett pointed out that Williams averaged 25.0 FPG in the 11 games he saw at least 60% of the snaps the last two seasons. Edwards-Helaire has a chance to regularly see a 60% snap share or better this season even if the Chiefs do bring in another back. Edwards-Helaire has moved inside our top-10 at the position, and fantasy drafters should consider selecting CEH as a mid-to-late first-round pick. They should also consider drafting DeAndre Washington toward the end of drafts while also taking chances on Devonta Freeman in the mid-to-late rounds just in case Brett Veach and Andy Reid consider adding the former Falcons RB to fill Williams’ spot.

Ronald Jones (TB) — The Buccaneers signed LeSean McCoy at the start of training camp, but HC Bruce Arians made clear that RoJo was the “main guy” in this backfield heading into the season. Shady proved that he didn’t have much left in the tank over the last two seasons with the Chiefs, and Jones is getting some extra reps with third-round RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn falling behind at the start of camp after landing on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Jones will likely be relegated to an early-down runner role, which is going to cap his upside. He’s going to need to score most weeks to come through for fantasy since he’s not going to contribute much in the passing game with Dare Ogunbowale and McCoy competing for the hurry-up/passing back role. Jones’ price is getting a little too high for our comfort (ADP 69) and it could be time to pivot to Vaughn if his price continues to plummet (ADP 98).

Antonio Gibson and Adrian Peterson (Was) — Derrius Guice earned his outright release from the Washington Football Team after being arrested on domestic violence-related charges, which included a felony count of strangulation. Washington’s backfield has been thinned out a bit with Guice’s release, but it’s still a crowded RB room with Gibson, Peterson, Peyton Barber, Bryce Love, and J.D. McKissic all still vying for snaps. Peterson is the best bet to lead this backfield in carries this season, but he doesn’t offer any fantasy upside because he doesn’t catch the rock with just 37 receptions in 31 games with the Football Team. Peterson also won’t have many touchdown opportunities after Washington finished dead last in points per game last season (16.6).

We’d much rather take our shots with Gibson in this backfield, and we’re expecting his ADP to climb the most, potentially into the top-100 picks. Gibson comes into the league with just 77 career touches to his name, but he averaged a ridiculous 11.2 YPC (33/369/4 rushing) and 19.0 YPR (44/834/10 receiving) in two seasons at Memphis. Gibson ran a scorching 4.39 40-time at the Combine at 6’0”, 228 pounds, and he was incredibly elusive out in space with the rock in his hands. Gibson isn’t likely to be a 15-20 touch player in this backfield, but he could settle into a role that sees him get 8-10 carries with 3-4 targets per game. Love now has a pulse and is worth an add in dynasty formats while Barber (early-down runner) and McKissic (passing back) could be flies in the ointment for Peterson and Gibson, respectively.

Damien Harris (NE) — Michel underwent foot surgery in May and he started training camp on the active/PUP list. It’s unclear if he’ll be cleared for football activities anytime soon and if he’ll even be ready for the start of the season. Harris barely found the field as a rookie, seeing just four carries in two games as a regular healthy scratch. He stands to work as the early-down runner for as long Michel is out of the lineup, and Harris could even surpass him without any additional help. The Patriots running game did take a small hit with RT Marcus Cannon and FB Dan Vitale deciding to opt-out for the 2020 season. Harris’ ADP has been quickly rising since news of Michel’s foot surgery first started trickling out in July, and you now have to use a 13th- or 14th-round pick to grab him. It’s also worth considering Rex Burkhead as a free pick at the end of best-ball drafts, as well.

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown (Bal) — We’ve professed our love for Hollywood throughout this summer, but be aware his price could be going up in the next week or two after he showed up to Ravens camp looking like a new player. Brown bulked up this summer and he reported to camp at 180 pounds after playing at 157 pounds as a rookie last season. We’re usually not too excited about skill players adding a bunch of weight in the off-season, but Brown’s case is a little different since he looked like a high school freshman playing with the varsity team last season. Brown’s weight gain should help with his durability, and he said that he used a GPS tracker to make sure he wasn’t losing any speed with his weight gain. We’re going to continue to target Hollywood in the sixth round, but we may need to be more aggressive to draft him if his price rises in the near future.

Henry Ruggs (LV) — Ruggs has been such a quick study in the early part of training camp that he’s already starting to learn the slot receiver spot in addition to his role as the primary Z receiver. OC Greg Olson said rookie WRs Ruggs and Bryan Edwards can line up all over the formation and at all the different spots in the lineup. We’ve been told that Ruggs is still primarily ticketed to be the Z receiver this season, but it’s a great sign that Olson and Jon Gruden are already looking to feature Ruggs all over the field early in camp. It’s not so great news for Hunter Renfrow, though, if the Raiders are already thinking about how to get Ruggs, Edwards, and Tyrell Williams all on the field together.

Preston Williams and DeVante Parker (Mia) — The Dolphins were dealt a bit of a blow with their #3 (Albert Wilson) and #4 (Allen Hurns) WRs deciding to opt-out this season. Parker and Williams are the clear top two options at the position with a big dropoff to Jakeem Grant, Mack Hollins, and Isaiah Ford behind them. It’s more important than ever before for Williams to be healthy and ready to play immediately, and he at least avoided the PUP list to start camp and he was cleared for football activities. The Dolphins are cautiously optimistic he’ll be ready to play in Week 1 as they ease him back into the mix. Hurns and Wilson will vacate a combined 75/767/3 receiving and 109 targets from last season. Williams remains an exceptional late-round value (145 ADP) while Parker’s price (63 ADP) looks much better now since he could be force-fed the ball once again.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) — The 49ers have taken some blows to their WR depth chart this summer, starting with Deebo Samuel’s Jones foot fracture in June. GM John Lynch said at the end of July that Deebo Samuel (Jones foot fracture) could miss time at the start of the season. Travis Benjamin decided to voluntarily opt out this season while Richie James started training camp on the active/NFI list as he’s still recovering from off-season wrist surgery. Aiyuk could also be Jimmy Garoppolo’s top WR to start the season since it’s looking likely that Deebo could miss time. Deebo is also at risk of a refracture if he rushes to get back too early, which makes Aiyuk even more of a value as a free pick at the end of drafts. Aiyuk is currently being drafted in the 14th round, and he’s a player to target toward the end of your drafts. Jalen Hurd and slot WR Trent Taylor are also viable selections in deeper formats.

Jalen Reagor (Phi) — The Eagles placed Alshon Jeffery on the active/PUP list to start training camp, and the Eagles are planning for a world without the veteran WR to start the season. Reagor opened camp learning both the X- and the Z-receiver spots, indicating that Jeffery may not be ready for the start of the season. It also indicates that the Eagles aren’t confident that J.J. Arcega-Whiteside can fill Jeffery’s spot early in the season. Both Reagor (ADP 129) and DeSean Jackson (ADP 154) are seemingly vying for the #1 WR role in this offense, and both can be had double-digit rounds into drafts.

Antonio Brown (FA) — AB has had such a wild 12 months that we’re considering him an upgrade after the NFL handed down an eight-game suspension for violating the league’s personal-conduct policy. Brown is in better shape than he was a couple of weeks ago because he’ll potentially be available for the back half of the season but, most importantly, teams are more likely to sign him now since his punishment has finally been doled out. A Super Bowl contending team with a strong locker room, like the Seahawks or the Ravens, could take a chance on the talented but troubled receiver, but we’ll see if Brown needs to keep his nose clean until he gets a deal.

Allen Lazard (GB) — Devin Funchess will basically miss his second straight season after deciding to opt-out for the 2020 season after playing in just one game with the Colts in 2019. The Packers had a glaring weakness at wide receiver this off-season and Funchess’ addition was the only move the organization made to address the position. Lazard is now in the driver’s seat to be the #2 WR for Aaron Rodgers, and he’s looking like a bargain right now with an ADP of 177 in NFFC drafts. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is also still in the mix to be the #2 WR. He was being selected in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts last summer before catching just five passes in his final nine games after Lazard overtook him.

Steven Sims (Was) — The Athletic’s Mark Bullock wrote an interesting piece breaking down how Sims could be a good fit as the Z receiver in Scott Turner’s new offense. Curtis Samuel played the Z-receiver spot in Turner’s offense last season, and Sims has a similar skillset to Samuel. Sims primarily played out of the slot last season, and his minuscule 6.9 average depth of target (aDOT) from last season could double this season since he should be asked to run more deep routes — Samuel had an aDOT of 15.9 yards last season. Sims would also be more of a full-time player if he earned the #2 receiver, and Washington is desperate for WR help with Kelvin Harmon (ACL) and Cody Latimer (Commissioner's Exempt List) no longer in the fold. It’s time to seriously consider Sims as a viable pick in the final rounds of drafts and he can be had for nothing with his ADP sitting at 247.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki (Mia) — The Dolphins were dealt a bit of a blow with their #3 (Albert Wilson) and #4 (Allen Hurns) WRs deciding to opt-out this season. DeVante Parker and Preston Williams are the clear top two options at the position, and Gesicki gets a bump as well since both Wilson (79.7% slot rate) and Hurns (50.4%) primarily lined up inside last season. Gesicki could lead all TEs in slot rate (71.8%) for the second straight season, especially since Chan Gailey has a history of moving his TEs around the formation. Hurns and Wilson will vacate a combined 75/767/3 receiving and 109 targets from last season. We’ve been avoiding Gesicki in drafts so far this summer with an ADP of 120, but he looks more appealing with the Dolphins’ losses at WR.

Jace Sternberger (GB) — The Packers had a glaring weakness at wide receiver this off-season and the addition of Devin Funchess was the only move the organization made to address the position. Funchess is no longer in the mix, though, after he decided to voluntarily opt-out. Lazard is now in the driver’s seat to be the #2 WR for Aaron Rodgers, and Sternberger will vie with Lazard to be the #2 receiver for Rodgers. Sternberger’s outlook continues to look promising at such a low price (ADP 183), especially with Funchess now out of the picture. The stars are aligning for Sternberger to go from a fantasy ghost as a rookie to a fantasy-relevant option as a sophomore.

Will Dissly (Sea) — Dissly suffered a catastrophic leg injury for the second time in two seasons last fall and, for the second time, he’s made a remarkably quick recovery after passing his physical and avoiding the PUP list at the start of training camp. Dissly tore his patellar tendon as a rookie in 2018, but he made it back for the start of his sophomore season before he tore his Achilles after six games last season. The Seahawks signed veteran Greg Olsen for insurance this off-season so they have no need to rush Dissly back to a full-time role. Dissly has the most upside between the two players since he’s posted a remarkable 31/418/6 receiving in just 10 career games, and he can be had for free in any draft (ADP 249).

{{Devin Asiasi|TE|NE}] (NE) — The Patriots already had one of the weakest tight end depth charts heading into training camp, and LaCosse’s decision to opt-out will leave them even thinner. It looks like third-round pick Asiasi will get thrown right into the fire as a rookie with new QB Cam Newton. Fellow third-rounder Dalton Keene could work more as an H-back after FB Danny Vitale opted out, as well, meaning Asiasi could be asked to fill an every-down role as the top inline TE. The Patriots have shown interest in veteran FA Delanie Walker, but the rookie Asiasi is still the top TE in New England right now. He’s currently projected as our TE39, and he could be a late August riser if we get some positive camp reports about his progress.

Defense/Special Teams

Seahawks — The Seahawks traded their next two first-round picks, a 2021 third-round pick, and S Bradley McDougald to the Jets to land one of the best safeties in the league in Jamal Adams. We’ve moved the Seahawks into our top-10 at the position after landing the play-making safety, who accounted for 6.5 sacks, two takeaways, and two defensive touchdowns by himself last season. The Seahawks will also likely have CB Quinton Dunbar in the lineup this season, as well, after prosecutors declined to charge him in an armed robbery case — they did charge Giants CB Deandre Baker in the same case.

DOWNGRADES

Players whom we’re feeling less optimistic about based on training camp reports and injury news.

Quarterbacks

None of note.

Running Backs

Damien Williams (KC) — Williams’ decision to sit out the 2020 season because of COVID-19 concerns was the biggest fantasy domino to fall during the league’s voluntary opt-out clause. Williams will be able to rejoin the Chiefs for the 2021 season. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire has now slid into the first round of fantasy drafts just like he slid into the first round of the NFL draft this past spring.

Sony Michel (NE) — Michel underwent foot surgery in May and he started training camp on the active/PUP list. It’s unclear if he’ll be cleared for football activities anytime soon and if he’ll even be ready for the start of the season. Damien Harris stands to work as the early-down runner for as long Michel is out of the lineup, and Harris could even surpass him without any additional help. The Patriots running game also took a small hit with RT Marcus Cannon and FB Dan Vitale deciding to opt-out for the 2020 season. Michel’s ADP has been plummeting over the last month, and he’s now being selected outside the top-100 picks over the last month. It’s totally justified since he could miss the first six weeks of the season if his foot isn’t ready for the start of the season.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB) — Vaughn is falling a bit behind the longer he sits on the sidelines after he started training camp on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The Buccaneers also signed LeSean McCoy at the start of training camp for a veteran presence in this backfield behind Tom Brady. Shady proved that he didn’t have much left in the tank over the last two seasons with the Chiefs, but he’s still another obstacle for Vaughn to get on the field. HC Bruce Arians called Ronald Jones the “main guy” in this backfield heading into the season, and Dare Ogunbowale and McCoy will be competing for the hurry-up/passing back role. Vaughn could come out of the gates slow with Tampa’s veteran RBs already learning on the job with the demanding Brady. With that said, Jones’ price is getting a little too high for our comfort (ADP 69) and it could be time to pivot to Vaughn if his price continues to plummet (ADP 98) the next couple weeks.

Derrius Guice (Was) — Guice earned his outright release from the Washington Football Team after being arrested on domestic violence-related charges, which included a felony count of strangulation. Guice’s career could be over because of his off-the-field behavior, and his career never took off on the field because of knee injuries. He played just five games through two seasons after Washington drafted him 59th overall in 2018. Guice slipped into the back-end of the second round after several teams took him off their draft boards because of character concerns. Guice should be cut in all fantasy formats, including in dynasty leagues. The Washington Football Team has been a mess for many years thanks to Daniel Snyder’s ownership. Ron Rivera has his hands full trying to turn this ship around.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel (SF) — Deebo suffered a Jones foot fracture in the middle of June, which will have him in a race to be ready for Week 1. Samuel is at risk of a re-fracture if he comes back too early, and he's a candidate to start the season on the PUP list if his recovery is even slightly behind schedule. GM John Lynch didn’t sound too optimistic about Deebo’s status at the end of July, “It's fair to say he might miss some games at the beginning of the year.” It's a tricky situation and one to monitor throughout August, but he’s not worth the risk at his current ADP of 76 especially since player availability could be more important than ever before this season.

T.Y. Hilton (Ind) — Hilton has a scary history of nagging soft-tissue injuries in his background, which includes quad and calf injuries that limited him to 10 games last season. It was a little unsettling to see Hilton show up on the active/NFI list to start training camp with what the Colts are calling a mild hamstring injury, which he suffered preparing for camp. The injury is nothing to get too worked up about since he has more than enough time to be ready for Week 1, but it’s just another reminder that Hilton may not be worth injury-risk at his current sixth-round price. Young WRs Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell are getting some extra work with new veteran QB Philip Rivers, who has yet to work with Hilton in a formal setting.

Jarvis Landry (Cle) — The Browns placed Landry on the active/PUP list to start training camp after undergoing hip surgery in February, and there seems to be some mild concern that he may not be ready for the season opener. We haven’t been actively targeting Landry with his seventh-round ADP, and it’s probably best to hold off drafting him until we get some positive indications that he’ll be ready for the season opener.

Corey Davis (Ten) — Davis opened training camp on the active/PUP list after he needed off-season toe surgery for an injury he played through last season. The foot injury could help explain Davis’ miserable third season as he saw his receiving line plummet from 65/891/4 receiving in 2018 to 43/601/2 in 2019. Davis is still expected to be ready for the start of the season, but he’s still not worth an investment late in drafts except in deeper formats with an ADP of 230.

Alshon Jeffery (Phi) — The Eagles placed Jeffery on the active/PUP list to start training camp as he continues to rehab his foot after undergoing Lisfranc surgery last December. The Eagles are also having first-round pick Jalen Reagor learn the X-receiver spot to start camp, which indicates Jeffery isn’t guaranteed to be ready to play in Week 1. It’s best to look elsewhere if you’re considering drafting Jeffery at the end of drafts.

Tight Ends

None of note

Defense/Special Teams

Patriots — The Patriots were hit by far the hardest by the voluntary opt-outs, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Dont’a Hightower is the biggest loss on defense as the Patriots have now lost four of their top five linebackers from last season. Patrick Chung’s loss won’t hurt nearly as much as Hightower’s departure since the Patriots signed Adrian Phillips and drafted Kyle Dugger this off-season. Brandon Bolden’s loss will be felt on the special teams this season. We’ve moved New England down from third in our D/ST rankings to fifth after the departures of Hightower and Chung.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.

Recent Articles