Welcome to Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the NFL data in this article is from Fantasy Points and specifically curated from our Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last four seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE, top-20 plays at RB, and top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week, matchup-based plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
There are four teams on bye – Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and Tennessee Titans.
Good luck this week!
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (TNF)
Must Start
Brock Bowers – The Jaguars inexplicably played man coverage last week, and Bowers shredded them for the most fantasy points by a skill player all season (12/127/3 receiving). I can’t imagine that Denver will take a similar approach, especially since they just deployed a season-low 23% man coverage without CB Pat Surtain last week. Bowers is extremely efficient on his targets, no matter the coverage. He’s averaging 2.4 yards per route run vs. man and 2.6 YPRR vs. zones.
Start ‘Em
Bo Nix – As expected, Nix was held in check on the road in a tougher matchup vs. the Texans last week (QB18 in scoring). This is clearly a spot to get back on as a mid-range QB1. Nix has Jared Goff-like splits when his team is favored. In six games where the Broncos are favored, he’s averaged 22.7 FPG (QB4). In three games with Denver installed as an underdog, Nix has scored just 16.9 FPG (QB19). The Broncos are massive -9.5 favorites on TNF.
Ashton Jeanty – After the Raiders bye, Jeanty just set a season-high in snaps (90%). Even though his carries could be limited in this spot as a huge underdog, he’ll be involved as a receiver. He quietly has 15/130/3 receiving on 18 targets over his last five games. His role is worthy of RB1 status, but the Raiders offense makes him more of a mid-range RB2.
J.K. Dobbins – Has been a TD-or-bust RB2 all season. Dobbins is playing well, but we’re left with a lower ceiling because his role in the passing game is nonexistent. That’s especially the case with R.J. Harvey getting more involved. Dobbins has turned his 13 targets into 10/30 receiving. After not scoring in four straight games, this is a get-right spot. Las Vegas has been good against the run this season, but it has still allowed 11 rushing scores.
Courtland Sutton – Sometimes, all it takes is one play for Sutton to deliver, and that was the case last week (1/30/1 receiving). This is a completely different spot. Sutton is a locked-in WR2 with a WR1 ceiling against this Raiders defense that’s allowing the third-most yards per game (134.5) and fifth-most FPG to opposing outside receivers.
FLEX Plays
Troy Franklin – Has become way more involved as of late, earning 20%, 28%, and 24% of the Broncos targets. I’m not ready to say that Franklin is the Broncos first read, but he’s out-targeted Sutton in four straight games. To be fair, Sutton did have two tougher matchups in this span (vs. Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley). You’re continuing to fire up Franklin as a WR3/FLEX.
Tre Tucker – While it’s clear that Bowers is going to dominate targets to an even higher degree now that Jakobi Meyers is gone, it does give Tre Tucker a small, volume-based upgrade. Tucker has earned at least 17% of the targets in five out of his last 7 games.
RJ Harvey – Has scored 5 TDs on benches across fantasy football over the last three weeks. Harvey’s snaps have trended up slightly (25% > 28% > 31%) as he continues to play more in the pass game than Dobbins, but there is still not enough overall volume to trust Harvey beyond a desperation RB3/FLEX play.
Sit ‘Em
Geno Smith – While he did play well against a struggling Jaguars pass rush last week, Geno gets a completely different spot here. The Broncos are fourth-best in pressure rate, first in sack rate, and fifth in blitz rate. Geno ranks 31st in fantasy points per dropback when pressured.
Evan Engram
Marvin Mims – Ruled out with a concussion.
Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (9:30a | Berlin, Germany)
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor – In the Colts seven wins this season, Jonathan Taylor is putting up 28.6 fantasy points per game. No big deal. In their two losses, he’s scored just 11.2 FPG. The Colts are -6.5 favorites in Germany. This spread would be closer to -8.5 or -9 if this game were in Indianapolis. Atlanta has struggled against the run as of late, allowing 121.5 rushing yards per game (fifth-most) over the last month.
Bijan Robinson – This is Bijan’s second-straight tougher matchup here after he was shut down by the Patriots elite run defense in Week 9. The Colts are playing zone-blocking runs well, allowing just 3.8 YPC (10th-fewest). Robinson predominantly runs off of zones. If he’s shut down on the ground again, Robinson will deliver in the passing game. He’s earned at least 18% of the Falcons targets in four out of his last 5 outings. Atlanta might be without both of their starting guards on Sunday. Matthew Bergeron (ankle) is doubtful, while Chris Lindstrom (foot) didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Start ‘Em
Daniel Jones – While I’m by no means pressing the panic button, last week’s performance (5 turnovers, 5 sacks) ahead of this meeting against a good Falcons pass rush is a little bit concerning. Jones had previously taken just nine sacks in his first 8 games. Jones still had a great fantasy box score with 342 passing yards on 50 attempts and rushing TD (his 5th of the year) last week. He’s fantasy’s QB8 by points per game. He’s been good against the blitz, averaging 9.2 YPA (11th-best) and 0.56 FP/DB (QB12). Atlanta blitzes as the second-highest rate (40%).
Tyler Warren – You’re continuing to start Warren, no matter what. However, this is a tough matchup. Atlanta is erasing TEs to the tune of 22 yards per game (league-low).
Drake London – Just dropped a 9/118/3 hammer last week. London has earned double-digit targets in each of his last four games, turning his 50 looks into 31/428/5 receiving. The only reason that he’s not Must Start? The Colts just traded for Sauce Gardner. He’ll see a lot of Sauce on Sunday.
Michael Pittman – Quietly the WR11 by PPR points per game on the season. He’s earned at least 22% of the Colts targets in 6-of-9 games. Atlanta has been pretty stingy against opposing outside wide receivers – they allow just 78.9 yards per game (second-fewest) – but that’s due in part to their pass rush getting home with pressure so often.
Kyle Pitts – Remains on the low-end TE1 radar. Pitts has earned more targets than Darnell Mooney in 5-of-6 games together this season. In fact, he’s earned at least 19% of the looks in four out of his last 5 contests. I like this matchup for Pitts against a Colts secondary that allows the third-most yards per game (74.9) to opposing TEs.
FLEX Plays
Alec Pierce and Josh Downs – The Colts' secondary options remain on the WR3/FLEX radar because this offense continues to produce. Downs has turned his 27 targets into a tight 21/193/3 receiving over the last month. I have no idea how, but Alec Pierce hasn’t scored a TD yet. He’s one of the league’s premier deep threats. Pierce ranks WR12 in yards per game (71.7) despite seeing just 6.3 targets per game (WR38). This is an “easier” matchup for Pittman and Pierce. Atlanta plays a ton of one-high safety coverage, which closes the middle of the field. It’s a part of the reason why they don’t give up much production to TEs or slot wideouts (fourth-fewest FPG).
Sit ‘Em
Michael Penix – Only in play in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Darnell Mooney
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings
Must Start
Lamar Jackson – The Ravens have scored a TD on 17-of-44 possessions in their four full games with Lamar this season. Their 39% TD/possession would lead the Colts (36.5%), Bills (34.5%), and Chiefs (33%) for the league-best mark. DC Brian Flores sends blitzes, no matter what. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate (44%). Will Flores continue to send the heat this week? If so, the Ravens might shred them. Lamar is killing blitzes to the tune of 0.89 fantasy points per dropback (QB1).
Start ‘Em
Derrick Henry – After a midseason lull, Henry is starting to turn it up with 64/312/2 rushing over his last three games. The Ravens lead all teams in adjusted yards before contact per carry (3.2) in Lamar’s four full starts. The Vikings allow the 12th-most yards per game and 10th-highest success rate on the ground.
Justin Jefferson – In three starts with J.J. McCarthy under center, Jefferson has gone for 13/172/2 receiving (14.1 PPR FPG). It’s good, but a far cry from his usual 17-20 FPG. Overall, the Vikings have leaned more on the run in McCarthy’s three starts (-3.3% pass rate under expectation). This is clearly a spot for their passing volume to spike with Lamar and the Ravens pushing the scoring pace.
Zay Flowers – In four full games with Lamar this season, Flowers has turned his 27 targets into a clean 21/295/1 receiving. His 27% target share and 2.7 yards per route run are borderline WR1-worthy. Flowers and Jackson have crushed blitzes to the tune of 12/169 receiving on 14 targets this year.
FLEX Plays
Jordan Addison – In their last 16 games together (including playoffs), Jefferson has put up 102/1394/6 receiving (17.0 PPR FPG) while Addison has 75/1030/10 (14.9 PPR FPG). That would make Jefferson the WR9 and Addison WR14. This matchup does tilt in Jefferson’s favor, though. The Ravens deploy man coverage on 38% of opponents’ dropbacks (fourth-most). Jefferson (0.29) has sharply out-targeted Addison (0.13) on a per route basis vs. man coverages.
Jordan Mason – Teammate Aaron Jones is injured (shoulder), which leaves Mason as the Vikings primary early-down RB. Zavier Scott will play in the passing game.
Stream ‘Em
Mark Andrews – Luckily, Andrews scored on his two targets last week. I wrote up Andrews as a streaming TE option last week and I’m going back to the well here. Just keep in mind, the floor is very low. Andrews has finished outside of the top-15 scoring TE in weekly output in 6-of-8 games this season. The Ravens TEs lead the team in targets (15) against blitzes by a hair over Flowers (14). The Vikings play two-high safety coverage on 70% of their opponents' dropbacks, which is good news for Andrews. He leads the team in targets per route run (0.23) against 2-high coverage.
J.J. McCarthy – Has finished as fantasy’s QB12, QB31, and QB14 in weekly scoring this season. McCarthy has yet to attempt more than 25 passes in a game, but that streak likely ends here. Baltimore’s opponents are averaging 39.8 attempts per game in Lamar’s four full starts. With a big volume uptick likely, I’m treating McCarthy as a low-end QB1.
Sit ‘Em
Aaron Jones – Didn’t practice on Wednesday (shoulder).
T.J. Hockenson – In his last 16 games with Jefferson and Addison, Hockenson has turned his 88 targets into 66/676/2 receiving (~TE23 by FPG).
Isaiah Likely – In play as a desperation TE streamer for all of the same reasons that we like Andrews this week. Likely earned a season-high 17% of the targets in Week 9.
Rashod Bateman
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Must Start
Emeka Egbuka – Currently the WR13 by fantasy points per game, I expect Egbuka to pop as a mid-range WR1 for the rest of the fantasy season. He should be fully over his midseason hamstring strain. Egbuka earned a whopping 38% of the Buccaneers' targets in his last game before the bye, setting a new season-high.
Start ‘Em
Drake Maye – This is a strength-on-strength matchup here for Maye vs. the Buccaneers. HC Todd Bowles loves to blitz, which plays into Maye’s many strengths right now. He trails only Lamar Jackson in fantasy points scored per dropback when blitzed. Maye is fantasy’s QB6 by points per game, and he’s starting to run a bit more. He has 7 or more carries in four-straight games.
Baker Mayfield – It could just be a small sample size, but the Patriots are deploying far less man coverage as of late. They’ve played man on 13%, 13%, and 25% of their opponents pass plays over the last three games. Once again, Baker is crushing zone coverage. Mayfield is QB7 in fantasy points per dropback with a strong 8.1 YPA and 7:1 TD-to-INT when facing zone coverage this season. By comparison, Mayfield ranks QB21 in FP/DB vs. man coverage.
TreVeyon Henderson – Although backup RB Terrell Jennings scored the goal-line TD last week, Henderson’s role was awesome. He played on 75% of the snaps (RB9) with elite pass down usage (68% RR/DB, 5 targets) and in the red zone. Henderson out-snapped Jennings inside the 20 by a massive 9 to 3 margin. Even if Jennings continues to siphon off 30-35% of the carries, Henderson’s usage looks like a high-end RB2. The only problem this week is that Tampa is playing excellent run defense (70.1 YPG and 3.4 YPC allowed).
Stefon Diggs – After a three-week ramp-up to start the season, Diggs and Maye’s connection has been on fire. Over their last six games, Diggs has turned his 38 targets (25% share) into a stellar 32/396/2 receiving. Diggs is a WR2 with a WR1 ceiling this week without Kayshon Boutte (hamstring).
Cade Otton – Over his last seven games without Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin on the field, Otton has piled up 46/449/2 receiving (14.7 PPR FPG | ~TE5). The Patriots have been weaker against TEs, allowing the ninth-most yards per game (63.6).
FLEX Plays
Rachaad White – In four starts without Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot), White has played on 77% of the snaps, taken 68% of the RB handoffs, and played on 62% of the pass downs. By expected fantasy points, his role is that of a low-end RB1. I’m just downgrading him significantly this week because this is a brutal matchup. New England is playing stellar run defense. The Patriots give up just 3.3 YPC (second-fewest).
Tez Johnson – Over his last four games, Johnson has turned his 22 targets into 14/205/2 receiving. He just earned a season-high 25% of the Buccaneers targets in their last game before the bye, and he will be relied on more heavily again with Chris Godwin’s season looking lost.
Sit ‘Em
Bucky Irving – Still not practicing with foot/shoulder injuries. Irving is in danger of missing a fifth-straight game.
Chris Godwin – Still not practicing with a leg injury. Godwin has played in two games all year.
Rhamondre Stevenson – Missed last week with a toe injury, and he didn’t practice again on Wednesday.
Kayshon Boutte – Set to miss time with a hamstring injury.
Demario Douglas – Even with Boutte out, Douglas will likely remain a part-time WR. Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams both ran more routes than Douglas last week. In fact, Douglas has not been involved in more than 50% of the team’s pass plays in any game since Week 1.
Hunter Henry – Since he blew up for 8/90/2 receiving vs. Steelers in Week 3, Henry has just 21 targets (16/203/1 receiving) over his last six games.
Sean Tucker
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
This game total is 37.5 O/U. It’s the third-lowest game total all season.
Start ‘Em
Travis Etienne – The Jaguars came out of the bye and loaded up Etienne with a season-high 27 touches. He responded with 115 scrimmage yards, but the box score doesn’t do him justice. That was one of the best games that I’ve ever seen from Etienne. He ran extremely hard, forcing nine missed tackles on his 22 carries. The rookie Bhayshul Tuten scored the TD, but there was no change at all in usage. Etienne remained ahead of Tuten by a 60% to 22% margin in snaps. You’re rolling out Etienne as a low-end RB2.
Nico Collins – In last week’s relief of C.J. Stroud (concussion), Collins was targeted eight times on Davis Mills’ 30 pass attempts (6/66 receiving). I’m not sure that there is a huge drop-off in QB play from Mills to Stroud right now. Mills averaged 227.2 passing yards per game across 25 starts in 2021-22. Stroud is averaging 230.4 YPG per start over the last two seasons. This is an ideal matchup for Collins against a Jaguars secondary that is getting flamed for the second-most fantasy points per game by opposing outside wide receivers.
FLEX Plays
Parker Washington – The Jaguars have no reason to rush Travis Hunter (knee) back and now Brian Thomas (ankle) is injured. This gives Washington a decent rest of season runway as a WR3/FLEX. In his eight games with 80% or more of the snaps over the last two seasons, Washington has turned his 58 targets into 34/440/3 receiving (12 PPR FPG).
Stream ‘Em
Dalton Schultz – If you’re desperate for a streaming TE, then Schultz makes some sense this week. He’s earned at least 19% of the targets in four out of his last 5 games. This is a good matchup. Jacksonville is allowing the second-most yards per game (75) to TEs. The Jaguars are getting field general LB Devin Lloyd back from injury this week. Lloyd was playing at an All-Pro level in Weeks 1-6.
Sit ‘Em
Brian Thomas – Seems likely to miss Week 10 with an ankle injury.
Jakobi Meyers – After being traded to the Jaguars midweek, I’m unsure how much Meyers will play. Long-term, my guess is that Jacksonville will play him on the perimeter primarily while Washington stays in the slot.
Trevor Lawrence – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB in five out of his last 18 starts.
Woody Marks and Nick Chubb – This backfield is a full-blown split. Over their last four games, Chubb (44) has the slight lead in carries over Marks (38) while the rookie plays way more on passing downs (59 routes to 32). Marks remains a fringe FLEX option. Chubb didn’t practice on Wednesday (foot).
Davis Mills – Will start in relief of C.J. Stroud (concussion).
Christian Kirk, Xavier Hutchinson, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel – The Texans played Kirk (70% route share) and Hutchinson (66%) well ahead of Higgins (40%) and Noel (11%) last week.
Dyami Brown – Questionable to play (concussion).
Stash ‘Em
Bhayshul Tuten
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Must Start
Quinshon Judkins – Off of the injury report heading into Week 10. Judkins sustained a minor shoulder injury in the Browns last game before the bye, but he’s good to go. The Jets were already giving up the eighth-most yards per game (114) to opposing ground games before they traded away DL Quinnen Williams to Dallas. Judkins has shredded in his five full games as a starter, piling up 99/406/5 on the ground (15.8 Half-PPR FPG | RB10). After the Jets trade deadline sale, Cleveland is installed as small -2.5 favorites in New York.
Start ‘Em
Garrett Wilson – Welcome back! After missing Weeks 7-8 with a knee injury, Wilson returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. It seems he’s on track to play. For the first time in his career, Wilson has turned his great volume (8.8 targets per game – WR8) into great production. He’s earned at least 30% of the Jets’ targets in 5-of-6 games. Despite his erratic QB play, Wilson has managed to score as fantasy’s WR8 by points per game. This is an ideal matchup here. Wilson is shredding man coverage to the tune of 2.9 yards per route run. Cleveland deploys the fifth-most man-to-man (37%).
Breece Hall – Our guy is tweeting through the pain. Despite not getting traded, Hall remains a volume-based RB2 in New York. In four games without Braelon Allen (knee), Hall has played on 61% of the snaps and has handled a whopping 84% of the RB handoffs. Isaiah Davis continues to mix in on passing downs, though. Davis has run 64 routes (13 targets) to Hall’s 52 routes (nine targets) in Weeks 5-9. This is a brutal matchup here for Hall. Cleveland is allowing just 3.3 YPC and a league-low 40% success rate on the ground.
Harold Fannin and David Njoku – As always, the Browns TEs are on the board as low-end TE1 options. In their three games together with Dillon Gabriel, this offense has centered around Fannin (22) and Njoku (19) as the primary targets. Fannin (84) has run slightly more routes than Njoku (72) as well. Fannin has 17/156/2 receiving (12.1 Half-PPR FPG | TE6) while Njoku isn’t far behind with 13/132/2 receiving (10.6 Half-PPR FPG | TE10).
Sit ‘Em
Justin Fields – By weekly scoring, Fields has finished as fantasy’s QB2, QB5, QB13, and QB14 in his four “easier” matchups (vs. Steelers, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Bengals) while he’s been an absolute nightmare in two tougher matchups (vs. Bills and Broncos). Fields got benched against the Panthers in Week 7 after an abysmal first half. This doesn’t stand out as a good matchup against this Browns pass rush. Cleveland is holding opposing QBs to the ninth-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-2.3). EDGE Myles Garrett is a one-man wrecking crew, elevating the Browns to the third-best sack rate (9.2%).
Mason Taylor – Over his last five games, Taylor had a mini-breakout with 23/199/1 receiving on 33 targets. His production (7.5 Half-PPR FPG) is only mid-range TE2 worthy, though.
Dillon Gabriel – Averaging just 170.8 passing yards per game in his four starts.
Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman – After missing the last four games with a hamstring injury, Tillman will be back for Week 10. Rookie Isaiah Bond (foot) is questionable.
Stash ‘Em
Isiah Davis – Would get a huge workload if Breece Hall were to miss time.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Must Start
Rico Dowdle – Was held out of practice on Wednesday with a quad injury, but it seems minor. HC Dave Canales said they’re just being smart with Dowdle and are counting on him on Sunday. As expected, the Panthers handed the keys to the backfield over to Dowdle last week. He responded by leading Carolina to a massive upset while hammering Green Bay for 141 scrimmage yards and 2 TD. In three starts with more than 50% of the snaps this season, Dowdle has an absurd 78/519/3 rushing while adding 9/95/1 (on 12 targets) as a receiver.
Start ‘Em
Chris Olave – Ok, the good news is that the Rashid Shaheed trade just locks in Olave for massive volume for the rest of the season. He’s earned at least 22% of the targets in 8-of-9 games. The bad news is that the Saints really struggled to move the ball in Tyler Shough’s first starts, managing just 10 first downs and 40 plays on offense.
Tetairoa McMillan – Through nine games, McMillan is only WR36 by FPG. His quarterback is clearly holding him back, but his overall volume remains WR2-worthy. McMillan ranks WR19 in targets per game and WR23 by expected fantasy points. This is yet another good matchup. New Orleans is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers. He projects like a low-end WR2.
Juwan Johnson – After a midseason lull, Johnson has earned at least 16% of the Saints targets in three straight games. Chris Olave was already among the most targeted players in the league, so Johnson stands to benefit more from the Shaheed trade. Carolina is allowing the second-most yards per target (9.5) and seventh-most yards per game to opposing TE (64.7).
Sit ‘Em
Alvin Kamara – His snaps have been cut down to 52% and 58% over his last two games while the rookie Devin Neal (45% and 40% of snaps) continues to play more. Kamara has a pathetic 41/121 rushing (3.0 YPC) over his last five games.
Chuba Hubbard
Bryce Young – He’s finished outside of the top-20 scoring QBs on a weekly basis in 6-of-8 starts.
Tyler Shough – I’d look to stream the Panthers D/ST. The Saints are implied to score 17 points, which is second-lowest on this slate. Our Fantasy Points Data charting team has charged Shough with an absurdly high 25% off-target throw rate.
Brandin Cooks and Devaughn Vele
Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker
Stash ‘Em
Devin Neal
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Must Start
Jaxson Dart – Has averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game (QB4) as a starter. If he’s able to sustain this pace, it would make Dart the third-most productive rookie QB since the merger. Chicago is a standout matchup for the Giants passing attack. The Bears are giving up a league-high 0.54 passing fantasy points per dropback.
Start ‘Em
Caleb Williams – Has been a boom-or-bust QB1 in fantasy this season, mixing in four top-10 scoring weeks among QBs with four performances outside of the top-18 entirely. In this potential shootout (47 over/under), Williams projects well as a mid-range QB1. New York is giving up the eighth-most passing fantasy points per game (16.2).
Kyle Monangai – Did the rookie just pull a Rico Dowdle on D’Andre Swift? Sure, it was the best possible matchup against a terrible Bengals defense. You can’t just write it off as the matchup, though. Monangai was excellent on Sunday, turning would-be two or three-yard gains into more because he ran so hard. He finished with 198 scrimmage yards on 29 touches. Monangai is averaging a full yard more than Swift after contact (2.7 YAC/carry vs. 1.7). Guess what? This is another ideal matchup. Chicago is favored by -4.5 over New York. The Giants allow 5.27 YPC. Only the Bengals (5.34) are worse.
Wan’Dale Robinson – Over his last five games without Malik Nabers (ACL), Robinson has turned his 41 targets into a solid 29/303/1 receiving. He’s WR22 by PPR points per game in this span. Robinson is a WR2 this week. Chicago is getting cleaned out for the second-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
Rome Odunze – I didn’t foresee Olamide Zaccheaus leading Chicago in targets last week. Maybe there is more to this ankle/heel injury that Odunze is trying to play through? On paper, this is an ideal bounceback spot. Odunze leads the Bears in targets (0.32) and yards (2.7) on a per route basis when facing man coverage this season. No defense deploys more man-to-man than the Giants (41%).
FLEX Plays
Darius Slayton – He’s just missed on two blow-up games back-to-back. Slayton had a 70-yard TD wiped off the board due to a penalty in Week 8, and he dropped a dime from Dart last week that would have been another long score. Ultimately, Slayton ended with 5/62 receiving vs. 49ers. Slayton has earned 32%, 27%, 15%, 21%, and 21% of the Giants’ targets in five games without Nabers over the last two seasons.
Stream ‘Em
Colston Loveland – We were on Loveland as a top streaming TE option last week due to the matchup with the Bengals and the rookie delivered a breakout performance (6/118/2 receiving). I’m sticking with Loveland as a TE1 option this week with his usage starting to really trend up. Loveland’s route share (39% > 63% > 76% > 80%) has increased in four-straight games. Chicago is desperate for a secondary target beyond Odunze.
Sit ‘Em
D.J. Moore – His weekly finishes this season are: WR36, WR49, WR28, WR45, WR41, WR40, WR31, and WR10. Yeah, his only “usable” scoring week this season came last week because he scored a 17-yard rushing TD. Moore still hasn’t earned more than 18% of the Bears targets in a single game this season.
D’Andre Swift – Questionable to play (groin).
Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary – In the Giants first game without Cam Skattebo, they went with a compartmentalized backfield split. Singletary had the lead in carries while Tracy was primarily involved on passing downs. Disgusting. After last week’s usage, Singletary looks like the better play in fantasy for Week 10. Chicago is getting trampled for 4.7 YPC and a 52% success rate.
Fantasy Points Data: Bell Cow Report
Theo Johnson – TD or bust streamer. Johnson has scored five times this season but is averaging just 2.9 receptions and 26.6 yards per game.
Olamide Zaccheaus
Luther Burden
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Must Start
Josh Allen
James Cook – Putting up 23 PPR points per game in the Bills six wins vs. just 6.8 FPG in their two losses. The Bills are installed as huge -9.5 favorites over the Dolphins. He’s scoring like Buffalo’s version of Derrick Henry. Cook has one reception in his last 4 games. He didn’t practice on Wednesday due to a foot/ankle injury that he sustained vs. Kansas City.
De’Von Achane – Has not finished worse than RB17 in weekly scoring this season. Achane just notched his sixth week as a top-12 scorer among RBs vs. Baltimore. My only “concern” this week is that Buffalo gets out to a big lead, forcing Miami to abandon the run in the second-half. On paper, this is a great matchup. Buffalo is struggling to stop the run, allowing 5.1 YPC and a 52% success rate.
Start ‘Em
Jaylen Waddle – Has turned his 36 targets into 24/402/2 receiving in his five games over the last month without Tyreek Hill. His 15.2 PPR FPG in this span would make him the WR13 in fantasy by a small margin over Emeka Egbuka (15.1 FPG).
Dalton Kincaid – As expected, Kincaid bounced back in a big way last week vs. Chiefs (6/101/1 receiving). This is an ideal matchup for him to keep up the momentum. Miami allows the fifth-most yards per game to opposing TEs (68.2). Kincaid is now TE7 by PPR points per game, tied with Tyler Warren.
FLEX Plays
Khalil Shakir – Has led the Bills in target share with 23%, 29%, 19%, 30%, and 31% of the looks in their last five games.
Sit ‘Em
Tua Tagovailoa – Only in play in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Keon Coleman
Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook
Greg Dulcich
Stash ‘Em
Ollie Gordon – Would have a decent role if Achane were to miss time. The Dolphins made Jaylen Wright a healthy scratch last week.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (4:05p)
Must Start
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – JSN is on Calvin Johnson’s heels for the best individual season by a WR all-time. His 118.5 receiving YPG trails Megatron’s epic 2012 season (122.8 YPG) by a slim margin.
Trey McBride – Has scored 4 TDs in three starts with Jacoby Brissett. He previously scored 3 TDs across his last 22 games with Kyler Murray. Lol. He’s the new Rob Gronkowski with Brissett at the controls. McBride has a relatively easier matchup this week than Harrison. Seattle gives up 63.8 yards per game to TEs (eighth-most).
Start ‘Em
Sam Darnold – Fresh off of shredding the Commanders last week, Darnold has finished as a top-10 weekly scorer among QBs in four out of his last 6 games. All of Darnold’s efficiency metrics have improved year-over-year. His 7.4% TD is up from 6.4% in 2024, he leads all QBs in YPA (9.6), and he’s cut his sack rate in half to just 4%. I’ve been writing up Darnold as a streamer this season, but his play warrants weekly top-12 consideration. Arizona plays very little man coverage, instead deploying zone on 77% of opponents’ dropbacks. The only QB that is averaging more fantasy points per dropback vs. zone coverage than Darnold (0.55 FP/DB) is Josh Allen (0.57).
Marvin Harrison Jr. – Last week was just Harrison’s fifth career game with double-digit targets and he went off against Dallas for 6/97/1 receiving. This is a far more difficult matchup, though. Seattle is allowing just 83.4 yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (sixth-fewest). I’m optimistic that Harrison’s overall volume is about to get a whole lot better. Jacoby Brissett is averaging 41 dropbacks per game over his three starts. By comparison, Kyler Murray averaged 34 DB/G over the last two seasons.
FLEX Plays
Ken Walker – Last week marked just the second time all season in which Walker out-snapped Zach Charbonnet. In fact, this backfield has tilted a little more towards Walker over the last two weeks. He has 28 carries while Charbonnet has 20. Seattle is predominantly a zone-blocking run offense, and Walker is averaging a solid 4.3 YPC off of his zone runs this year while Charbonnet is plodding to 2.2 YPC. It’s enough already. Seattle are -6.5 home favorites over Arizona.
Stream ‘Em
Jacoby Brissett – Is on an absolute heater. He’s completely outplayed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have correctly rewarded Brissett with the starting job. He just runs the passing offense on time and in rhythm, which is something Murray has never consistently done. Brissett has finished as fantasy’s QB7, QB11, and QB10 in weekly scoring over the last three weeks. He’s averaging 286.7 passing yards per game, which would lead all QBs (Matthew Stafford is QB1 in YPG – 268.4).
Sit ‘Em
Rashid Shaheed – My guess is that Shaheed plays a part-time role in his debut with Seattle. This is a nice upgrade for his fantasy stock. Shaheed won’t earn as many targets in Seattle as he did in New Orleans, but Darnold is dealing. He leads all QBs in yards per game and completion rate over expected off of deep passes. Shaheed gets to reunite with his OC from last year, Klint Kubiak.
Bam Knight and Emari Demercado – The Cardinals flipped Knight and Demercado’s role last week. Knight was the RB2 (9 carries) to Demercado (14) while the former ran more routes (17 to 7). You can’t play a Cardinals RB this week. Seattle is stifling opposing ground games to a league-low 3.0 YPC. Trey Benson isn’t ready to return to practice after undergoing knee surgery (meniscus) five weeks ago.
Zach Charbonnet
A.J. Barner
Tory Horton
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (4:25p)
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey – CMC is having another PPR Platinum season. He’s finished as a top-10 scorer on a weekly basis in 8-of-9 games. His 8.9 targets and 69.6 receiving yards per game are career-high marks.
Puka Nacua – Across his six full games this season, Nacua’s output is worthy of the Triple Crown. He turned his 70 targets into a stellar 59/683/3 receiving. His 26.0 PPR FPG makes him the runaway WR1 over Rice (22.4), JSN (22.4), and Chase (21.1).
Matthew Stafford – I’ve been higher than most on Stafford and the Rams all year and see no reason to pump the brakes. This offense is humming. Stafford’s efficiency metrics (7.7 TD%, 7.8 YPA, and 4.5% sack rate) look nearly identical to his 2021 season in which the Rams won the Super Bowl (6.8 TD%, 8.1 YPA, and 4.8% sack rate). He’s finished top-8 among QBs in weekly fantasy output in four out of his last 5 games. This is an ideal matchup here against a 49ers defense that can’t rush the passer (30% pressure rate forced – last). San Francisco has allowed the third-most passing yards over the last five weeks.
Start ‘Em
Davante Adams – Has settled in as a high-end WR2. Adams (53) trails Nacua (70) in targets by a wide margin in their six full games together, but has made up for it by scoring five times. Adams has 27/417/5 receiving (16.5 PPR FPG) in games with Nacua.
Kyren Williams – Remains a low-end RB1. We saw no change with this backfield out of the bye week as Williams played on his usual 68% of the snaps.
George Kittle – His target share (8% > 16% > 17%) is slowly starting to trend up after a midseason hamstring strain. Mac Jones has only attempted 26, 32, and 24 passes in the 49ers last three games. However, this is clearly a spot for the 49ers play volume to spike a bit. Los Angeles will push the scoring pace, forcing San Francisco to throw more.
FLEX Plays
Jauan Jennings – Finally capitalized on his decent usage last week (4/41/1 receiving). Jennings has earned at least 21% of the 49ers targets in three-straight games.
Sit ‘Em
Ricky Pearsall – Has missed the last five games with a knee injury. Pearsall remained out of practice on Wednesday.
Kendrick Bourne – Has just eight targets (7/92 receiving) over the last three weeks.
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum
Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders (4:25p)
Must Start
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Gets an ideal matchup here. Washington is getting crushed for a league-high 107.4 yards per game by opposing slot receivers.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Sam LaPorta – Just like Amon-Ra, we should see LaPorta dominate the Commanders slow LB/S group over the middle. They're hemorrhaging 9.5 yards per target to TEs, third-most.
Start ‘Em
Jared Goff – As always, you’re playing Goff as a favorite. Over the last four seasons, Goff averages 20.7 fantasy points per game (QB7) in 39 starts as a favorite. However, his output dips when the Lions are underdogs to just 14.2 FPG (across 33 starts). Detroit are huge -8 road favorites over Washington. The Commanders are allowing 0.54 passing fantasy points per dropback, tied with the Bears for the most in the league.
Deebo Samuel – After a good start to his season, Deebo has slowed down considerably since injuring his heel/foot. Samuel has just 12 receptions for 67 yards on 17 targets over the last three weeks. He’ll be relied upon heavily with Terry McLaurin set to miss more time with this quad injury. Deebo earned 27% of the targets last week. Detroit is allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery
Jameson Williams – Everyone on the Lions has a great matchup this week, Williams included. The Commanders play a good bit of single-high safety coverage (Cover-1 and Cover-3), which gives Williams a boost here. He’s averaging 1.96 yards per route run vs. 1-high safety looks compared to just 1.1 YPRR vs. two-high shell coverages. Washington is giving up the third-most passing yards per game (60.9) on deep throws of 20+ air yards.
Stream ‘Em
Marcus Mariota – Across five relief appearances/starts over the last 2 years, Mariota is averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game (~QB10). Mariota’s 6.1 TD% and 7.6 YPA are very solid figures as a passer, and he’s added 36/214/2 rushing. The Commanders are going to have to throw a ton in this matchup, and Mariota will need all of the volume that he can get. Detroit is getting healthier in the secondary, and their pass rush is coming alive (second-best pressure rate forced).
Sit ‘Em
Jacory Croskey-Merritt – With Jeremy McNichols playing on the majority of passing downs and Chris Rodriguez mixing in, we’re left with Croskey-Merritt as a low-floor, game-script dependent RB3/FLEX. Detroit plays the run well. The Lions allow just 3.8 YPC and a 44% success rate.
Zach Ertz – Has just 4/16, 2/21, and 3/38 receiving in three starts with Marcus Mariota this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (SNF)
Must Start
Justin Herbert – Even though he just lost stud T Joe Alt (ankle) for the season, Herbert is white hot right now. He’s scored as fantasy’s QB2, QB2, and QB3 in his last three games. I don’t buy that Pittsburgh is magically a much-improved defense after one good game vs. Colts. Their pass rush could cause Herbert problems here, but this secondary is still allowing the sixth-most passing fantasy points per game to go along with a league-high 299.5 yards/game.
Oronde Gadsden – The Steelers have spent all season getting crushed by tight ends. They’re giving up 72.6 yards per game to the position, which is fourth-most. Tyler Warren underwhelmed last week, but I think that had way more to do with Daniel Jones turning the ball over five times (and taking 5 sacks). Herbert to Gadsden has become one of the NFL’s most efficient duos. They’ve hit on 24-of-27 pass attempts for 377 yards and 2 TDs over the last month.
Start ‘Em
Ladd McConkey – Since everyone panicked in Week 4 after his one catch game vs. the Giants, McConkey has held strong as a low-end WR1 with 31/350/3 receiving (on 48 targets). That’s worth 16.8 PPR FPG (~WR9). Pittsburgh plays a good bit of man coverage (36% | sixth-most), which should be a nice boost for Ladd. He’s been targeted on a team-high 28% of his routes when facing man coverage.
Jaylen Warren – The Steelers have correctly made Warren their clear lead RB over the last three weeks, giving him 45 carries to Kenneth Gainwell’s 11. OC Arthur Smith has stopped it with the shenanigans and is just committed to Warren.
Quentin Johnston – Came back to life for 4/53/1 receiving last week. This certainly seems like a pretty good spot for Johnston and Herbert to link up on a deep shot. Pittsburgh is allowing the most yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (150.3) and the fifth-highest completion rate over expectation on throws of 20+ yards.
FLEX Plays
Kimani Vidal – Came up extremely small with just 12/30 rushing in a perfect matchup vs. Titans last week. Vidal still got the majority of the work out of the backfield with 72% of the snaps. Hasaan Haskins went on I.R. last week, leaving only Jarret Patterson around to back up Vidal. The Chargers are just leaning so heavily on the pass that it leaves Vidal as more of a RB2/FLEX. Los Angeles’ 7% pass rate over expectation trails only Kansas City (+9% PROE) for the league-high.
D.K. Metcalf – As I’ve been writing all year, Metcalf’s role is so mid. He’s WR44 by targets per game and WR38 in expected fantasy points. I’m treading lightly with Metcalf as a low-end WR3/FLEX this week against a stingy Chargers secondary that’s holding opposing outside wide receivers to just 1.6 yards per route run. That’s tied with Denver and Houston for second-fewest.
Sit ‘Em
Keenan Allen – With rookie TE Oronde Gadsden playing a full-time role, it has boxed Keenan Allen out. Allen has been involved in just 50% and 51% of the Chargers' pass plays over the last two games.
Aaron Rodgers – Only in play in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Calvin Austin
Kenneth Gainwell
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (MNF)
Must Start
Josh Jacobs
Saquon Barkley
Start ‘Em
Jalen Hurts – You’re by no means benching Hurts in fantasy, but this is a bit of a scary matchup overall. Green Bay’s pass rush can slow Hurts down. Hurts has the eighth-highest pressure-to-sack ratio (22%).
Romeo Doubs – The injury to Tucker Kraft (ACL) is brutal. The Packers will have a condensed distribution of targets for the first time in years with Doubs leading the way. He’s earned at least 27% of the Packers' targets in three out of his last four games. The Eagles allow the seventh-most yards per game (118.8) and are 15th in schedule adjusted FP to perimeter WR.
DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown – Brown missed the Eagles last game before the bye with a hamstring strain. Hopefully, he’s good to go for MNF. Brown earned at least 21% of the Eagles targets in six straight games prior to his injury. While the Packers pass rush is very good, their cornerbacks are nothing to be afraid of for Smith and Brown. Green Bay is allowing the fifth-most yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (120.8). This matchup does favor Smith. He’s averaging a stellar 2.6 yards per route run vs. zone coverage this season, while Brown has been far more efficient when facing man-to-man (4.3 YPRR) than zones (0.9 YPRR). Green Bay deploys zones on 77% of opponents’ dropbacks.
Dallas Goedert – As always, Goedert is on the board as a mid-range TE1. He’s finished as the TE15 or better in weekly scoring in 12 out of his last 15 full games.
FLEX Plays
Christian Watson – The injury to Tucker Kraft will help consolidate targets around Doubs, Watson, and Golden for the rest of the season. Watson enters Week 10 as a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX. Watson has earned exactly 11% of the targets in back-to-back games, turning his eight total looks into 6/143 receiving.
Sit ‘Em
Jordan Love – While the Eagles are not the same shutdown defense that they were last season, they’re still stingy overall. Philadelphia is allowing just 12.4 passing fantasy points per game (sixth-fewest). The Eagles have allowed just three top-12 weekly performances by a QB all season (Mahomes, Mayfield, and Dart). I think the loss of Tucker Kraft is worth downgrading Love’s rest of season outlook a bit. Kraft was emerging as a game-changing piece here.
Matthew Golden – Questionable to play (shoulder).
Luke Musgrave – He’s now the Packers primary TE after Tucker Kraft was lost for the season. Musgrave will be a decent streaming option in the back half of the year, but this is not the spot. The Eagles are the best defense in the league against TE. Philadelphia is holding opposing tight ends to 5.1 yards per target (fewest) and -5 schedule-adjusted FP per game (third-fewest).
Stash ‘Em
Tank Bigsby
