Hello, and welcome to “The Week 11 Everything Report,” formerly known as “the Usage Report” or “the XFP Report,” but for you long-time readers, it’s the exact same article with a different name. If you’re unfamiliar with XFP, I’ll get to that in a little bit.
What is this article?
If you’re new to this article… Every week we’re going to be telling you which players are seeing the best volume for fantasy, most often measured by Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). We’ll be telling you who the best buy-low and sell-high candidates are, typically measured by Points Above Replacement (PAR), or the differential between actual- and expected fantasy points. This is an especially effective approach in DFS, where players are typically priced by production rather than volume, though PAR will regress to the mean. And (at the end of the article) we’re going to be telling you who the best volume-per-dollar DFS plays are.
What is XFP?
You can access our complete XFP database (which includes other advanced stats like air yards, deep targets, and end-zone targets) here.
Expected fantasy points (XFP) is flat-out the best and most comprehensive way of measuring a player’s volume. It’s telling you – based on a player’s unique usage – how many fantasy points that player should have scored. It’s telling you how many fantasy points a perfectly league-average RB, WR, or TE would have scored with that same exact volume. It looks at every individual carry by down and distance and distance from the end zone and every individual target by depth of target and distance from the end zone, and then cross-references each carry and target to each carry and target with those specific qualifiers over a multi-year sample to tell you what exactly those carries and targets are worth (historically).
Expected touchdowns (XTD), same thing. RBs score from the one-yard line on 54% of their attempts. RBs score from the 17-yard line only 3.6% of the time. So why ever use “red zone carries,” which treats both carries the same, as a fantasy stat? I have no idea.
Why doesn’t everyone point to XFP in their fantasy research? I have no idea. Once you have XFP and XTD, you can contrast that with a player’s actual fantasy points or actual touchdown total to tell you how efficient a player has been (PAR). This is especially useful in highlighting regression candidates, buy-low targets, and mispriced players for DFS.
Through 10 weeks of action, here are the top 30 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game:
The Top 30 XFP Leaders
14 Things to Know
1. Maybe I’m insane, but I see two players on your waiver wire (who – I’m aware – are both currently averaging fewer than 20.0 snaps per game) who could be fantasy league winners come playoff time.
I’m very comfortable dolling out takes that make me look insane. Because the takes that have made me the most money over the years were always the takes that drew the most intense negative reactions. In fantasy, much like in the stock market, the rewards are always greater when you go against the grain.
Posting these quotes to give myself enough confidence to fire off a take in tomorrow's Everything Report that will have everyone questioning my sanity pic.twitter.com/7WjIn2iOAY— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 14, 2023
With all of this out of the way, I need to reiterate that I’m fully aware this is going to make me look insane, but…
I think Kadarius Toney and Jerick McKinnon still possess massive league-winning potential. Assuming you have a good team and a strong starting lineup in a deeper-than-normal league, I’d consider adding them both today. If not, I’d keep a very close eye on them as they sit on your waiver wire.
Jerick McKinnon, RB
Here’s what I said of McKinnon in my Draft Guide:
Jerick McKinnon… is a player I want on 100% of my full PPR teams by Week 12 at the latest. Of course, that doesn’t mean you need to draft him – I probably won’t be, personally. If you take a Zero-RB approach in a very deep league, he may be worth stashing. But if not, you could probably get away with snagging him off waivers… McKinnon will never be a bell cow, but he averaged 18.0 FPG over his final six games last year (2nd-most among RBs, behind only Christian McCaffrey). He was one of only three offensive players selected as captains for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl (alongside Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce). And he could again be a league-winner in the fantasy playoffs this year. After all, that is and has been Kansas City’s strategy with the 31-year-old veteran — preserving him and then unleashing him several weeks before the NFL postseason (during our fantasy playoffs, when production matters most). The fact that he’s so cheap and has starter-worthy upside for the fantasy playoffs is another feather in the cap for all Zero-RB drafters.
Kadarius Toney, WR
The Chiefs have had big plans for Kadarius Toney as a feature guy. Overcoming this game will be a big test in his young career.— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) September 8, 2023
I was definitely “probably” just flat-out wrong for telling you to draft Toney offseason. Toney was “probably” always going to be a terrible pick, even though every NFL insider suggested the team viewed him as their clear WR1 and their new Tyreek Hill. It was “probably” one of the worst calls I’ve ever made. But there’s also a chance that I wasn’t wrong; I was just early. That the team does, in fact, view Toney as their clear WR1, but they’re just trying to keep him healthy and are preserving him until later in the season (like with how they used McKinnon last year).
#Chiefs coach Andy Reid on Kadarius Toney’s low snap counts this season:— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 14, 2023
“We’re taking it easy with him up to this point. Just making sure he can make it through the year in good health.”
Toney has topped 19 snaps in just two of nine games this year
Kansas City keeping their… pic.twitter.com/7pvBPGyq6w
What’s the most likely outcome here? It has to be that Toney and (even more likely) McKinnon continue to do nothing for the remainder of the season. But the “most likely outcome” isn’t as important as the potential league-winning outcome. And in this instance, it feels like that potential reward almost certainly outweighs the cost (of holding a non-producer on your bench for a couple of weeks).
For clarity – I’d consider adding both today in deeper leagues and tournament-style leagues such as FFPC’s Main Event. But in a typical league, you’re probably okay waiting a few more weeks until we start to see usage rates climb (if they ever do).
2. One more love poem for Christian McCaffrey.
It was a “disappointing” outing for Christian McCaffrey in Week 10, who – for the first time in 17 games, including playoffs – failed to score a touchdown.
Okay, but here’s what that means. McCaffrey still scored 20.2 fantasy points (6th-most on the week). He earned 16 carries and 10 targets (6 more than anyone else on the team), good for a 32.1% target share. Over the last three seasons, there are only 14 instances of an RB clearing 15 carries and a 30% target share in a single game. Those RBs average 27.9 FPG in those games.
This was a “bad” game for McCaffrey, and he still has 51 more fantasy points than any other RB fantasy. This was a “bad” game for McCaffrey, and he’s still cleared 20 fantasy points in 41 of his last 49 (84%) full games (>66% snap share). For perspective, Austin Ekeler has hit that benchmark just 56% of the time over the last three seasons.
This was a “bad” game for McCaffrey, which is still a great game for just about anyone else. And a good game for McCaffrey is something along the lines of his Week 4 performance – 48.7 fantasy points, the 8th-most fantasy points by any RB in any game this past decade.
3. Massive league-winning potential for Jonathan Taylor.
*siren.emoji* This is not a drill. *siren.emoji* Jonathan Taylor is now officially a highest-end bell cow, and he may now have the most valuable workload in all of fantasy.
Last week, Taylor played on 89% of the team’s snaps, earning 23 of 24 carries and 20 of 22 routes out of the backfield. In addition to being season-highs for Taylor, this was also the highest snap share, 2nd-highest carry share, and highest route share of any RB on the week.
Let’s do some simple math here… Over the last two weeks, Taylor has handled 89% of the team’s backfield XFP. Indianapolis’ backfield is averaging 25.0 XFP/G across Gardner Minshew’s 6 starts (would rank 6th-most among all teams). 89% of 25.0 would equate to 22.3 XFP/G, which would rank best among all RBs, and +10% better than Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler.
Obviously, Taylor’s lack of efficiency (2.83 YPC over the last two weeks) is a little concerning, but this volume is still good enough for me to rank Taylor behind only CMC and Ekeler in my rest-of-season rankings.
4. The good and the not-quite-bad-but-definitely-ugly for those invested in Dallas’ offense.
I was worried about Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb heading into this season, due to Mike McCarthy’s explicit desire to lean obnoxiously run-heavy. However, it seems – following the team’s bye week – McCarthy has come to his senses, realizing that the running game is not the strength of this team. (Sorry, Tony Pollard-owners.)
Prior to the bye, Dallas ranked 8th-lowest in pass rate over expectation (-1.2%). Since the bye, Dallas ranks 2nd (+11.5%).
Dallas Cowboys [Pass Rate Over Expectation]— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 14, 2023
Week 1: -3.7% (22nd)
Week 2: -1.2% (25th)
Week 3: -6.6% (29th)
Week 4: +9.4% (2nd)
Week 5: -8.3% (25th)
Week 6: +3.1% (13th)
Week 7: bye
Week 8: +14.2% (3rd)
Week 9: +9.3% (7th)
Week 10: +11.5% (2nd) pic.twitter.com/s9C6DHIqJO
Over this span, Prescott has hit at least 31.0 DK fantasy points in three straight games, averaging 35.1. For perspective, only one other QB (Josh Allen) has exceeded 30.0 DK fantasy points three times this year, let alone three games in a row.
Prior to the team’s Week 7 bye, CeeDee Lamb ranked only 27th among WRs in target share (21.5%). Since then, he has averaged 172.0 air yards, 14.3 targets (35.2% target share), 166.7 yards, 11.3 first-read targets, 2.0 end zone targets, 27.3 XFP/G, and 36.5 FPG. Over this span, these numbers rank: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 1st.
Congratulations to anyone who owns either Prescott or Lamb. Both appear to be players more than capable of carrying you to a fantasy championship.
It was yet another brutal outing for Tony Pollard, who has failed to score double-digit fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games. And who has failed to find the end zone in 8 straight games, despite Dallas scoring 14 offensive touchdowns over the last 3 weeks.
Pollard’s near-end zone usage was once again great, earning 3 of the team’s 4 carries inside the 5-yard-line. Unfortunately, Pollard was stopped on all 3 tries. And to add insult to injury, Rico Dowdle managed to find the end zone on his lone attempt.
Although some may look at Dowdle’s productive day, and suggest that the Cowboys are now employing more of a committee approach with the RBs, that’s decisively not the case. Prior to the 4th quarter (when Cooper Rush replaced Prescott), Pollard played on 90% of the team’s snaps (would have led all RBs on the week), earning 15 of 21 carries and 23 of 24 routes out of the backfield. This is decisively still highest-end bell cow usage.
That said, it’s certainly possible Pollard’s inefficiency – 3.7 YPC last week, 3.9 YPC across the full season – especially relative to that of Dowdle (6.6 YPC last week) will eventually merit a demotion. However, until that happens, Pollard remains a massive positive regression candidate – ranking 6th among all RBs in XFP/G (17.3) but just 23rd in FPG (12.7) – even if HC Mike McCarthy refuses to play to Pollard’s strengths.
5. Jameis Winston was the cure to what ailed Chris Olave.
Chris Olave had failed to lead New Orleans’ receivers in fantasy points scored in six straight games – a feat accomplished multiple times by all of Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill.
Through the first 2.5 quarters of last week’s game, Olave earned just 1 target (5.6% target share). Then, Derek Carr suffered a shoulder injury, and Jameis Winston came in to replace him, playing only one full quarter plus two drives. In that span, Olave caught 5 of 8 targets (32.0% target share) for 79 yards and a score.
Chris Olave with Derek Carr: 1 target for 1/15/0 in 37 minutes— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) November 12, 2023
Chris Olave with Jameis Winston: 9 targets for 7/79/1 in 20 minutes (plus a 24-yarder called back to penalty)
Unfortunately, New Orleans has their bye this week, giving Carr ample time to rest up and get healthy. But there’s still a decent chance New Orleans does the right thing here; admit their mistakes and bench Carr for Winston.
6. Selected musings on some key Cardinals:
Kyler Murray, QB
In his return to football – 11 months removed from ACL surgery – Kyler Murray threw for 249 yards (2nd-most by any Arizona QB this season) while adding 33 rushing yards and a score on 6 carries. He finished the week as fantasy football QB13, with 18.3 fantasy points. Most importantly, Murray looked awesome and fully back.
So, I’ll double down on what I’ve been saying all offseason, I’d bet on Murray running more than most people think, and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t finish as a fantasy QB1 from here on out.
Trey McBride, TE
Among TEs, Trey McBride ranks behind only Travis Kelce in YPRR (2.56) and TPRR (0.29). Over the last three weeks (without Zach Ertz), McBride averages 71.3 air yards per game on a 31.5% target share. If over the full season, those numbers would rank (respectively) 1st among all TEs and 1st among all players.
Needless to say, he’s, at worst, a mid-range TE1 until further notice.
Trey McBride (Last 3 Games)— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 14, 2023
71.3 air yards
9.3 targets / 31.5% target share
8.7 first-read targets / 38.2% first-read target share
Among all WR/TEs, these numbers would rank:
42nd (1st among TEs)
14th / 1st
7th / 7th
(This isn’t just a Trey McBride thing, by the way. I think the TE is a major focal point of this Arizona offense – much like how slot WRs were a focal point of the Kliff Kingsbury offense – because although McBride ranks 2nd in TPRR, Zach Ertz ranks 5th. Don’t get me wrong, I love McBride – I had him ranked as a historically great TE prospect coming out of college – and Zach Ertz is inefficient, old, injured, and dusty. I’m just saying this seems like a great long-term environment for McBride to thrive. Given the current state of the TE position, I don’t think it’s insane to question if McBride is already a top-6 dynasty asset at the position.)
Marquise Brown, WR
Trey McBride has stolen the show of late, but I wouldn’t sleep on Marquise Brown. He struggled badly last week (4th on the team in targets), but perhaps somewhat understandably, given the brutal matchup – Atlanta ranks 2nd-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (-7.6). (By the way, this undoubtedly helped McBride pad his numbers.)
Across Brown's previous 8 games, he ranked 9th in air yardage share (42.0%), 13th in target share (27.2%), 14th in XFP/G (16.3), but just 30th in FPG (13.4). He wasn't very efficient with his good volume, but in his defense, he ranked 3rd-worst in catchable target rate (68%). Kyler Murray glaringly represents a massive upgrade in this regard – he ranked 10th-best by the same stat last year (78%).
Last year, in games either one of DeAndre Hopkins or Brown missed, Murray’s WR1 averaged 20.7 FPG (would rank 8th-best this year, ahead of Ja’Marr Chase).
I wouldn’t be shocked if Brown rebounds this week (despite another tough matchup) and flirts with high-end WR2 production throughout the remainder of the season.
James Conner, RB
In his return game last week, James Conner played on 65.0% of the team’s snaps, handling 16 of 19 carries and 0 of 0 targets out of the backfield. For the uninitiated – that’s bell cow usage but not bell cow volume.
I was hoping for a little bit more than that, in a game Emari Demercado missed, but it could be argued that Arizona was still easing him back. Even so, I think the lack of targets is worrisome. Conner is averaging just 1.5 targets per game (4.8% target share). This was something that’s always made Conner great for fantasy, regardless of how efficient/inefficient he’s been or how good/bad the offense is. Last season, from Week 10 on, Conner ranked behind only Christian McCaffrey in FPG. Over this span, he was averaging 5.1 targets per game with a 12.5% target share.
7. Wherever you have Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked, it’s too low.
Amon-Ra St. Brown needs to be in the same conversation as Justin Jefferson. Or rather, it’s weird that we don’t view the Sun God as essentially equivalent to 96% of Jefferson at (typically) 85% of the DFS salary.
St. Brown averages 10.5 targets and 22.1 DK FPG over his last 28 games in which he’s played on at least one-third of the team’s snaps. Jefferson, meanwhile, averages 10.9 targets and 23.0 DK FPG over his last 28 games (min. >33% snap share).
And St. Brown might be playing his best football yet. He’s hit 100 receiving yards in 6 of his last 6 fully healthy games, and averages 12.8 targets per game over his last 5 fully healthy games. He’s fallen short of 18.0 DK fantasy points only once this year, and it was a game in which he scored 13.8 in the first half (on pace for 27.6) prior to injury.
8. Keenan Allen’s back like he never left. And, in fact, he never left.
Heading into last week, it looked like Keenan Allen was seriously hampered by the absence of Mike Williams. He was averaging 30.3 DK FPG with Williams, although only 14.8 DK FPG without him.
But digging deeper, it was clear there was another culprit at fault – poor schedule luck. Because Allen’s volume remained excellent without Williams – he’s now seen at least 9 targets in 5 straight games, and a target share of 30% or better in 4 of his last 5. It was just that his efficiency declined, which is understandable considering he had a bottom-10 matchup (by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs) in 4 of his previous 5 games. So, what happened last week in a top-7 matchup against Detroit? He scored an insane 43.5 DK fantasy points on 14 targets.
This week, in a neutral-at-worst matchup against Green Bay, Allen should be viewed as an easy mid-range WR1.
9. Good but not great usage for Bijan Robinson. But mostly good!
It looks like HC Arthur Smith may have finally capitulated to the “toxic groupthink.”
Bijan Robinson played on 75% of the team’s snaps and hit a season-high 22 carries alongside a season-high 82% route share last week. Perhaps most importantly, he played on 4 of the team’s 5 snaps inside the 10-yard line, earning 2 carries and scoring once. He totaled 17.7 XFP (5th-most on the week, and his 3rd-most on the season) and scored 17.6 fantasy points (11th-most).
This was an improvement, no doubt, but it also amounted to just 60% of the backfield XFP if you count Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson’s combined 12 carries and 3 targets. In other words, although this is a step in the right direction, I’d bet this usage increase is going to be massively overstated by the DFS community this week.
10. Don’t worry too much about Adam Thielen.
Adam Thielen has seemingly struggled over the last three weeks, averaging just 11.1 FPG (WR36). Over the previous six weeks, Thielen ranked as fantasy football’s overall WR1, averaging 24.7 FPG.
As for the catalyst behind this recent dropoff in performance, I’m not buying into the notion that the team’s decision to change play-callers following their Week 7 bye has played a meaningful role; Thielen’s target share has actually improved since their bye (25.0% vs. 24.5%).
Rather, two things immediately jump out to me: 1) Let’s get serious here. Thielen was never going to finish the season as a high-end WR1 for fantasy. A natural regression to the mean was always inevitable. Thielen is still just an old low-aDOT possession receiver on a bad offense. 2) Thielen has (understandably) struggled across a very tough strength of schedule. Each of Thielen’s last three opponents ranks top-10 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (where he runs 70% of his routes), with the latter two opponents both ranking top.
Unfortunately, he gets another bottom-10 matchup again this week, up against a Dallas defense that ranks 9th-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs. Nonetheless, I’d feel confident starting him as a mid-range WR2 this week.
11. Garrett Wilson, a sneaky buy-low target.
Garrett Wilson leads all players in first-read target share (42.5%). He ranks 10th among all WRs in XFP/G (18.1), but just 19th in FPG (14.5). Or, since Week 6, 2nd in XFP/G (22.8), 8th in YPG (90.8), and 10th in FPG (16.7).
If he’s still being valued in line with his production over the full season, as a mid-WR2 or worse, I think he’s an easy trade target. As bad as Zach Wilson has been, this is still elite volume. And it seems there may be a real shot Aaron Rodgers is back by the fantasy playoffs (mid-December).
12. Sneaky league-winning potential for Brian Robinson.
Brian Robinson hit a season-high in route share (36.2%), target share (13.6%), and targets (6) last week. This could be nothing, but it does hint at some incredible upside on the pass-heavy Commanders (3rd in PROE this year). And especially so, given how hyper-efficient Robinson has been on a per-target basis.
Among 176 qualifying receivers, Robinson ranks best in fantasy points per target (2.89) and 2nd-best in depth-adjusted yards per target over expectation (+5.6). Needless to say, there appears to be some untapped potential.
Across the full season, Robinson ranks 15th in FPG (14.9) despite ranking just 34th in XFP/G (10.9) and 33rd in snap share (51.2%). He might have RB1 potential if Washington starts to give Robinson more of Antonio Gibson’s passing-down work.
Lamar Jackson has accounted for just 2 of Baltimore’s 11 touchdowns over the last three weeks (18%), down from 13 of 19 to start the year (68%). Based on recent comments from HC John Harbaugh, I don’t think this is accidental.
It’s worth pointing out that if Justin Fields is back this week, he averaged 31.0 FPG over his last two full games (with only 4.1 rushing FPG in these games)… In three NFL seasons, Fields had never eclipsed 17.0 passing fantasy points in a single game – something C.J. Stroud has already done 5 times. Well, that was up until Week 4, before Fields eclipsed 27.0 passing fantasy points in back-to-back games and then suffered an injury in Week 6. So, it appears Fields may have been on the cusp of locking some absurd fantasy ceiling, as he also had 10 designed rushing attempts in his last game (2nd-most by any QB in any game this season)… If Fields is back, D.J. Moore will catapult up our rankings – he scored 19.4, 13.1, 30.1, and 52.0 DK fantasy points over Fields’ last 4 full games (averaging 28.7), although he averaged just 10.1 FPG across Tyson Bagent’s 4 starts.
Josh Dobbs is insanely fun. He’s currently outscoring Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa. By FPG, he ranks as the QB7 since Week 2 (20.3), and as the QB3 since being traded to Minnesota (26.0)… And now the Vikings are expected to get Justin Jefferson back this week… I’m viewing him as a fringe QB1 this week, up against a resurgent Denver defense.
Josh Dobbs— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 13, 2023
Week 8: QB7 finish
Week 9: QB5 finish
Week 10: QB3 finish
*last game with Cardinals, bottom-3 matchup against Ravens
**first game with Vikings, didn't even start, never took a single rep with the offense in practice
***bottom-10 matchup against the Saints
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery both had productive games last week, finishing (respectively) 1st (24.7) and 8th (17.6) among all RBs in fantasy points scored. Both were productive, but Gibbs undoubtedly saw the better usage. In a game in which Detroit never once trailed (theoretically, gamescript which better suits Montgomery’s skillset), Gibbs out-snapped Montgomery 37 to 24, out-carried him 14 to 12, and out-targeted him 5 to 0. Even inside the 10-yard line, Gibbs out-snapped Montgomery 5 to 4, earning 5 opportunities to Montgomery’s 2… Gibbs ended the week ranking 3rd among RBs in XFP (24.5), while Montgomery ranked 25th (11.2)… Although projected gamescript is more in Montgomery’s favor this week (favored by 5.0 points), the matchup suits Gibbs’ skillset far better. The Bears are giving up the 2nd-fewest rushing YPG (59.3), but the most receiving YPG to opposing RBs (61.5). This week, I’m viewing Gibbs as a top-6 option, and Montgomery as a high-end RB2.
Either the training wheels have fully come off for Javonte Williams, or he’s just Sean Payton’s new Mark Ingram (an extremely gamescript-sensitive workhorse RB), or both. Across Williams’ last three games (all wins), he averaged 21.0 carries, 3.7 targets, 101.3 YFS, and 15.7 FPG. In all other games (all losses), he averaged just 11.5 carries, 3.0 targets, and 17.5 FPG. If you’re a Williams owner, you’re hoping it’s a little more of the former than the latter… Gamescript projects to be favorable this week, but by a slim margin (favored by 2.0 points). But the on-paper matchup is pretty rough – Minnesota is giving up the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (-3.8). Add it all up, and I’m viewing Williams as a mid-range RB2 this week.
De’Von Achane is expected to make his triumphant return this week. Over his last three games prior to injury, he averaged an insane 154.3 YFS, 2.3 touchdowns, and 32.1 FPG on just 12.3 carries, 3.3 targets, and 51.4% of the team’s snaps. He’s technically one of the biggest negative regression candidates I’ve seen in years, but he also might just be CJ2K 2.0. Either way, you’re starting him this week, probably even if we get word he’s going to be on a touch count… I wouldn’t be too worried if you’re a Raheem Mostert-owner. Mostert was averaging 14.6 XFP/G on a 50.8% snap share across Achane’s three monster games. Since then, he’s seen only a slight uptick in snap share (55.1%) and actually less raw volume (12.7 XFP/G).
Updating a blurb from last week’s article – I was wrong about Alexander Mattison. He was not the team’s bell cow in Week 10. Instead, he served in a 60/40 committee alongside Ty Chandler. Prior to Mattison’s injury (concussion), he was out-snapping Chandler by a decent margin (30 to 17), but barely eclipsed him in terms of opportunities (8 carries plus 2 targets vs. 8 carries plus 0 targets)… Mattison was on my radar – based on the assumption that he might be getting 80-plus percent of the work – but he’s an easy fade now, as an embarrassingly inefficient player (falling short of his XFP by 4.5 FPG) stuck in a near-even committee backfield… If Mattison sits this week, Chandler should be able to turn his likely bell cow utilization into low-end RB2 production at worst.
Several weeks ago new Raiders HC Antonio Pierce said Josh Jacobs is the “heartbeat” of the Raiders offense, and added that getting him to 100 rushing yards was a point of emphasis for the team. Jacobs was already seeing high-end RB1 usage, but that’s jumped considerably since the departure of OC Josh McDaniels. Over the last two weeks, Jacobs averages 26.5 carries (up by +60%), 107.0 rushing yards (up by +110%), and 19.3 DK FPG (up by +32%). … That said, gamescript has obviously played an important role here, and it’s important to point out that his usage has declined considerably in the passing game (3.8% target share, down from 15.6%). Both points could be critically important this week, as 12.0-point underdogs against the Dolphins.
Devin Singletary was a highest-end bell cow last week, handling 60 of 74 snaps (81%), 30 of 30 carries, and 2 of 3 targets out of the backfield. For perspective, only 12 other RBs have seen at least 60 snaps, and only 3 other RBs have seen at least 30 carries in any game this season. He finished the week with 23.1 fantasy points (3rd-most) on 19.4 XFP (4th-most), and his 150 rushing yards were 40 more than the team had in any other game this year … Singletary is unlikely to see this sort of usage once Dameon Pierce makes his return. But, I mean, there’s still a decent chance, even if it is “unlikely.” And even if this does revert to a committee, I think Singletary is probably going to remain Houston’s lead back – Singletary had out-snapped Pierce 55 to 44 over their last two games together, and Pierce currently ranks as the single least efficient RB in fantasy (falling short of his XFP by 5.7 FPG). Plus, this quote from OC Bobby Slowik seems to hint that the team has seriously soured on him.
Rachaad White has finished as a top-12 fantasy RB in four straight games. He’s hit at least 98 YFS and 46 receiving yards in each of these games. Over this span, he ranks 4th in snap share (78%), 5th in carries (62), 1st in routes run (102), 5th in targets (20), 5th in XFP/G (18.3), and 4th in FPG (19.9). His 228 receiving yards also ranks 27th among all receivers over this span, ahead of names like Mark Andrews and Davante Adams. Even in a tough on-paper matchup this week, I’d be starting him as low-end RB1, hoping he gets enough target volume to compensate for San Francisco’s ferocious defensive line.
I wouldn’t read too much into Travis Etienne’s disappointing performance last week, in a game that got out of hand quickly and ended 3-34. Gamescript should be much better this week, favored by 6.5 points up against a Titans defense that is giving up the 4th-most rushing YPG to RBs since Week 5 (115.2). Prior to last week, Etienne ranked 3rd among all RBs in snap share (81%), 8th in XFP/G (16.2), and 4th in FPG (20.5). He’s probably $1,200 too cheap on DraftKings this week, priced at just $7,200.
Amari Cooper in games with Deshaun Watson this year:— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 15, 2023
- 17.6 PPR points per game
- 24.2% target share per game
Amari Cooper in games without Deshaun Watson this year*:
- 9.1 PPR points per game
- 25.4% target share per game
*Includes game against Indy where Watson barely…
Amari Cooper was averaging 17.6 FPG with Deshaun Watson, and 9.1 FPG without. As bad as Watson has been this year, P.J. Walker has been so much worse. With Watson now ruled out for the remainder of the year (shoulder), Cooper’s fantasy value takes a big hit.
Excluding one game in which Mike Evans left early with an injury, he ranks (on a per-game basis) 8th in air yards (119.0), 17th in targets (8.1), 11th in receiving yards (87.1), 14th in XFP/G (16.5), and 9th in FPG (18.2). I’d be starting him as a fringe WR1 this week, up against a 49ers defense that is giving up 25.1 DK FPG to opposing WR1s over the last five weeks.
Although it wasn’t a very productive outing for Tank Dell, his volume and usage were incredible, leading all players in XFP (30.9). On a season-high 98% route share (up from 66%), he earned 186 air yards (most on the week), 14 targets (2nd-most), and 13 first-read targets (most). I’ll be starting Dell as a low-end WR2 even if Nico Collins suits up this week, and as a high-end WR2 if he doesn’t.
Noah Brown is a baller. He’s led the Texans in receiving yards in three straight games. And over the last two weeks has finished 2nd (153) and 3rd (172) among all receivers in receiving yards. Hopefully, Houston comes to their senses and stops giving Robert Woods serious playing time.
As bad as things look for Christian Watson, it’s worth pointing out that – since Week 5 – he leads the league in end zone targets per game (1.6) and ranks 8th in deep targets per game (2.0). The spike week upside for DFS is still clearly there.
Pittsburgh’s offensive identity feels pretty straightforward at this point – run the ball down their opponent's throats with a lead vs. force-feed Diontae Johnson the ball when trailing. Johnson has a 0.29 TPRR when Pittsburgh is trailing (7th-most among all WRs), although that falls to just 0.21 with a lead. Meanwhile, when leading, Pittsburgh leans massively run-heavy (55% of the time, which ranks 3rd-most). This might feel like a good game for Johnson, given the 4.0-point spread in the opponent’s favor. But the matchup is pretty brutal – Cleveland is giving up the 3rd-fewest FPG to opposing WRs.
Last week, I wrote a bunch of words here on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and what to expect while Dallas Goedert sits out over the next 3-5 weeks.
Minus one game against the Steelers – who rank worst in FPG allowed to opposing WR1s – Davante Adams is averaging just 11.0 FPG (WR29). Within this sample, he has only one touchdown and zero games with at least 90 receiving yards. I’m not sure that Aidan O'Connell represents an upgrade on Jimmy Garoppolo or Brian Hoyer, but he does appear to be a clear downgrade for Jakobi Meyers.
w/ Jimmy Garoppolo— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 14, 2023
Davante Adams: 29.9% target share
Jakobi Meyers: 26.4% target share
w/ Brian Hoyer
Davante Adams: 33.3% target share
Jakobi Meyers: 30.9% target share
w/ Aidan O'Connell
Davante Adams: 31.7% target share
Jakobi Meyers: 12.5% target share
Mark Andrews underwhelmed last week (6.4 fantasy points on 4 targets), but it’s worth pointing out just how brutal this matchup was. Andrews is averaging 15.7 FPG against the Browns. In all other games, Cleveland is giving up just 2.4 FPG to opposing TEs. (That’s not a typo.) For perspective, the 2nd-best defense is giving up 8.0 FPG to TEs, and the league median is 12.5 FPG… Luckily, this week Andrews gets a Bengals defense that is giving up a league-high +5.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+5.2). Or, in other words, we should be expecting something close to 19.8 FPG from him this week, instead of his typical 14.6.
T.J. Hockenson has finished 2nd (12) and 1st (15) among all receivers in targets over his last two games. And actually, it’s a little more impressive than that… Fantasy Points Data has a metric called “Threat Rate” which measures target share on aimed throws when a player is actually on the field. This helps us because Hockenson missed multiple plays over the last two weeks due to injury (oblique / ribs). If we only look at the plays where Josh Dobbs and Hockenson were both on the field, then Dobbs has targeted Hockenson on just about half of his throws when Hockenson was actually on the field. This is legitimately insane usage, unrivaled by any QB-receiver pairing in quite some time… The only question now is – is this the sort of usage we should expect from Justin Jefferson in his return, or can Dobbs still be better for Hockenson’s fantasy value than Kirk Cousins was? One reason for optimism is that Dobbs has targeted TEs on 35% of his career throws – a mark that would have led all QBs in any of the past five seasons.
2023 WR/TE Leaders by Threat Rate— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 15, 2023
1 TJ Hockenson (w/ Josh Dobbs under center) - 48.1%
2 Tyreek Hill - 38.9%
3 Davante Adams - 34.4%
3 AJ Brown - 34.4%
Threat Rate = aimed target share on plays individual player was actually on the field
Top Regression Candidates
DraftKings XFP Values
1. Diontae Johnson, WR (3.2X)
2. Elijah Moore, WR (3.1X)
3. Robert Woods, WR (3.1X)
4. Tutu Atwell, WR (3.0X)
5. Garrett Wilson, WR (2.8X)
6. Marquise Brown, WR (2.8X)
7. Curtis Samuel, WR (2.7X)
8. Josh Jacobs, RB (2.7X)
9. Jonathan Mingo, WR (2.7X)
10. Evan Engram, TE (2.7X)
Minimum Fantasy Points Lost Due to Defensive Pass Interference + Fantasy Points Negated by Penalty
1. A.J. Brown, WR (34.1)
2. Calvin Ridley, WR (26.5)
3. Justin Herbert, QB (28.3)
4. Courtland Sutton, WR (26.0)
5. C.J. Stroud, QB (25.2)
6. Keenan Allen, WR (22.9)
7. Tua Tagovailoa, QB (22.5)
8. Odell Beckham Jr., WR (22.3)
9. Tyler Lockett, WR (22.1)
10. Patrick Mahomes, QB (21.3)
XFP Team Market Share
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB (30%)
2. Saquon Barkley, RB (29%)
3. Garrett Wilson, WR (28%)
4. Josh Jacobs, RB (27%)
5. Tyreek Hill, WR (27%)
6. A.J. Brown, WR (26%)
7. Ja’Marr Chase, WR (26%)
8. Alvin Kamara, RB (25%)
9. Puka Nacua, WR (25%)
10. Davante Adams, WR (25%)
11. Keenan Allen, WR (25%)
12. Justin Jefferson, WR (24%)
XFP per Team Play
1. Tyreek Hill, WR (0.32)
2. Justin Jefferson, WR (0.32)
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB (0.32)
4. Ja’Marr Chase, WR (0.30)
5. Josh Jacobs, RB (0.30)
6. Keenan Allen, WR (0.30)
7. Alvin Kamara, RB (0.30)
8. Austin Ekeler, RB (0.29)
9. Garrett Wilson, WR (0.29)
10. Davante Adams, WR (0.28)
11. Stefon Diggs, WR (0.28)
12. A.J. Brown, WR (0.28)