The Everything Report: 2023 Week 10


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The Everything Report: 2023 Week 10

Hello, and welcome to “The Week 10 Everything Report,” formerly known as “the Usage Report” or “the XFP Report,” but for you long-time readers, it’s the exact same article with a different name. If you’re unfamiliar with XFP, I’ll get to that in a little bit.

What is this article?

If you’re new to this article… Every week we’re going to be telling you which players are seeing the best volume for fantasy, most often measured by Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). We’ll be telling you who the best buy-low and sell-high candidates are, typically measured by Points Above Replacement (PAR), or the differential between actual- and expected fantasy points. This is an especially effective approach in DFS, where players are typically priced by production rather than volume, though PAR will regress to the mean. And (at the end of the article) we’re going to be telling you who the best volume-per-dollar DFS plays are.

What is XFP?

You can access our complete XFP database (which includes other advanced stats like air yards, deep targets, and end-zone targets) here.

Expected fantasy points (XFP) is flat-out the best and most comprehensive way of measuring a player’s volume. It’s telling you – based on a player’s unique usage – how many fantasy points that player should have scored. It’s telling you how many fantasy points a perfectly league-average RB, WR, or TE would have scored with that same exact volume. It looks at every individual carry by down and distance and distance from the end zone and every individual target by depth of target and distance from the end zone, and then cross-references each carry and target to each carry and target with those specific qualifiers over a multi-year sample to tell you what exactly those carries and targets are worth (historically).

Expected touchdowns (XTD), same thing. RBs score from the one-yard line on 54% of their attempts. RBs score from the 17-yard line only 3.6% of the time. So why ever use “red zone carries,” which treats both carries the same, as a fantasy stat? I have no idea.

Why doesn’t everyone point to XFP in their fantasy research? I have no idea. Once you have XFP and XTD, you can contrast that with a player’s actual fantasy points or actual touchdown total to tell you how efficient a player has been (PAR). This is especially useful in highlighting regression candidates, buy-low targets, and mispriced players for DFS.

Through eight weeks of action, here are the top 30 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game:

The Top 30 XFP Leaders

14 Things to Know

1. Investing in the Houston Texans passing attack may have been a league-winning proposition.

Last week, C.J. Stroud scored 41.8 fantasy points (most ever by a rookie QB), on the back of 470 passing yards (most ever by a rookie QB) and 5 passing touchdowns (most ever by a rookie QB).

Despite ranking just 13th in pass attempts (279), Stroud now ranks 3rd among all QBs in passing YPG (283.8), 3rd in ANY/A (8.23), and 4th in FPG (20.1). For perspective, 20.1 FPG ranks 4th-most of any rookie QB all-time, behind only Deshaun Watson (24.1), Cam Newton (23.1), Justin Herbert (22.2), and Robert Griffin III (21.2).

Again, Stroud is playing out of his mind. He’s hyper-efficient and he’s hyper-productive, and he’s doing both of these things despite a stubbornly run-heavy game plan nearly every single week.

Houston ranks 3rd-best in yards per pass attempt (9.04) and 3rd-worst in yards per carry (3.25). Obviously, you would think Houston would want to be throwing more than they’re passing. And yet, Houston had a positive PROE (pass rate over expectation) in only two of their games heading into last week (2nd-fewest among all teams). But last week Houston’s PROE jumped to a season-high +10.6% (4th-most among all teams).

Houston may have been forced to abandon the run game because of the matchup (the Buccaneers are giving up the 3rd-fewest rushing FPG to opposing RBs) or because their RB1 Dameon Pierce sat out with an ankle injury. But hopefully, instead, this was HC DeMeco Ryans coming to his senses, as he seemed to imply in a later press conference.

If Stroud already ranks 4th in FPG (20.1) despite this handicap, he obviously possesses massive league-winning potential should Houston come to their senses and continue to neglect their ineffective run game. And the same goes for the supporting cast, which includes the current WR14 (Nico Collins), WR19 (Tank Dell), and TE8 (Dalton Schultz) by FPG.

But in what order should we be valuing these names?

I could see Collins finishing the season as Houston’s WR1. He’s undoubtedly the most efficient of the group, currently averaging 2.92 YPRR, which ranks 6th-best among all WRs. But then again, Collins has reached a 75% route share only once this season, and his 70.1% average across the full season ranks just 62nd among all WRs.

Personally, I’d be leaning more toward Tank Dell (who is inexplicably rostered in only 51% of Yahoo! leagues) than anyone else. But you can even make the case that Dalton Schultz is the true No. 1 receiver on this team. For instance, Schultz has led the team in target share in 3 of their last 4 games. But Dell actually has the highest target share over this span – 22.7% to Schultz’s 22.6% to Nico Collins’ 18.3% to Noah Brown’s 15.1%. As you can see, this isn’t a very condensed passing attack; Houston is spreading the ball around quite a bit, and they’re spreading out playing time as well (Dell consistently leads the receivers in route share, but he’s only cleared an 80% route share once this year). Obviously, this isn’t great for any individual receiver’s upside, but it hasn’t seemed to matter yet.

So, to re-visit the previous question – in what order should we be valuing these names? Truthfully it feels like an impossible question to answer. It’s probably going to fluctuate wildly week-to-week, much to the chagrin of any fantasy manager who owns any one of these names.

But I will say this – this week, I’m viewing Schultz as a top-5 fantasy TE (he has a great matchup) and both Collins and Dell as mid-range WR2s. And note, there’s upside for more from there if Houston sticks to a more pass-heavy approach (as they obviously should).

2. Similarly… Wheels up on the Dallas Cowboys' passing attack.

Through the first 6 weeks of the season, CeeDee Lamb ranked 5th in YPT (11.3), 4th in YPTOE (+3.3), 14th in yardage share (34.9%), and just 28th in target share (21.5%). It was obvious to just about everyone that Lamb was the only thing working in this offense and that he desperately needed more targets. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones disagreed at the time, but, has ostensibly changed his position following the team’s Week 7 bye.

Michael Gallup out-targeted Lamb 21 to 18 from Weeks 4-7. But over the last two weeks, Lamb has 24 more targets than the next-closest Dallas WR. For perspective, only one other WR in the NFL (Garrett Wilson) has at least 24 total targets over the same span.

Lamb has now led the NFL in both receiving yards and targets in back-to-back games. Over this span, he’s averaging 179.0 air yards (1st), 15.0 targets (1st) on a 38.5% target share (1st), 174.5 receiving YPG (1st), 28.2 XFP/G (1st), and 36.6 FPG (1st). Although he’s certainly not going to continue to push for 40.0 FPG, I’d be shocked if Lamb doesn’t finish as a mid-range WR1 or better throughout the remainder of the season.

And Lamb isn’t the only Cowboys player to gain significant value following the team’s bye. Because Dallas isn’t just targeting Lamb more often. They’re also leaning significantly more pass-heavy in recent weeks. Dallas had the 8th-lowest PROE before their bye (-1.2%). But since then, that’s jumped to +11.8% (5th-most).

Remember, last season, Dallas RBs led the league in rushing attempts (462). And that still wasn’t good enough for HC Mike McCarthy, who fired OC Kellen Moore for “wanting to light the scoreboard up” when McCarthy just wanted to “run the damn ball so he could rest his defense.”

That may have been what McCarthy wanted heading into the season, but given RB Tony Pollard’s struggles on the ground (3rd worst of 45-qualifying RBs in missed tackles forced per attempt), it makes sense for Dallas to lean on the actual strength of their offense, which has become their passing game. Clearly, Lamb has benefited. But so, too, has Dak Prescott, who has exceeded 28.0 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks.

Beyond that, the only other winner I’m seeing is TE Jake Ferguson.

It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride for Jake Ferguson-owners this year. Through the first four weeks of the season, Ferguson ranked behind only Travis Kelce in TPRR (0.30). The only issue was that he was only a part-time player (54% route share). Over the next two weeks, his route share jumped to 79%, while his TPRR fell off of a cliff (0.07, 36th of 40 qualifiers).

However, since the team’s Week 7 bye, Ferguson has seemingly enjoyed the best of both worlds. And, in fact, perhaps he’s even supplanted Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks to become the clear No. 2 receiver on this team. Over the last two weeks, Ferguson ranks 1st in route share (85.1%), 13th in target share (17.9%), 10th in XFP/G (12.8), and 5th in FPG (18.4). Granted, this isn't amazing volume, but keep in mind, his 14 targets are 8 more than any non-Lamb Dallas receiver over this span.

3. Alexander Mattison is honestly a little sexy to me.

With Cam Akers now out for the year, Alexander Mattison should return to the bell cow usage he was seeing from Weeks 1-6.

Over this span, Mattison earned a 71% snap share (~RB8), 72.6% carry share (~RB3), and an 11.9% target share (~RB13). He averaged 13.7 carries, 4.7 targets, 17.1 XFP/G (~RB6), and 12.9 FPG (~RB22).

I should acknowledge the obvious counter-arguments:

1) Mattison is terrible. Among all RBs with 100 or more carries, Mattison ranks bottom-5 in YPC (3.56) and also by just about every other advanced stat you can think of. Although this is true, he’s also a positive regression candidate. He’s no doubt bad, but he’s also probably not “the single worst player in the NFL” like his numbers imply. (Right now, Mattison has fallen short of his volume-based expectation by 37.6 fantasy points, which ranks worst among all players.) He may never even come close to neutral or league-average levels of efficiency, but I assure you his numbers will regress closer to the mean.

2) After losing their starting QB for the remainder of the year, this probably isn’t a very good offense. And week-to-week gamescript is unlikely to be very beneficial for Mattison. I think that’s probably true to some extent, but Josh Dobbs did just lead the offense to a 31-point outing and a victory. That was also the most points Atlanta has given up all season. And Dobbs accomplished this feat without Justin Jefferson (eligible to return this week) and despite never taking a single practice rep in this offense.

In summation, I think we should expect mid-range RB1 levels of usage and volume. And although we should also expect Mattison to remain very inefficient, something along the lines of mid-range RB2 production this week and most weeks moving forward.

4. Amari Cooper, Marquise Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins have WR1 potential if their QB could be just “somewhat competent” rather than “worst in the league.”

By catchable target rate Cooper ranks 2nd-worst (67.2%), Brown ranks 3rd-worst (70.7%), and Hopkins ranks 4th-worst (68.9%) among all WRs to earn 50 or more targets.

Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns

FPG: 13.6, XFP/G: 15.6, DIFF: -2.0

The Browns rank 2nd-worst among all teams in completion percentage over expectation (-5.1%) and dead-last in catchable throw rate (67.5%).

Amari Cooper leads all WRs in uncatchable XFP per game (7.0), which means if he had a perfectly accurate QB, we should be expecting him to average an additional 7.0 FPG – enough to push him up from WR27 (14.0) to WR6 (21.0) by FPG.

Indeed, Cooper’s volume has been strong – he ranks 17th in XFP/G (15.6) – but his efficiency is actually nowhere near as bad as you’d expect. Since Week 2, he ranks 17th in YPRR (2.50) and 17th in DK FPG (15.0).

The good news for Cooper is that Deshaun Watson actually looked pretty good last week, and perhaps even somewhat close to the Watson of old. For instance, Watson’s 83.3% catchable throw rate ranked 5th-best among all QBs last week.

Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals

FPG: 12.5, XFP/G: 15.6, DIFF: -3.1

Since Week 2, Marquise Brown ranks 9th in air yardage share (42.0%), 13th in target share (27.2%), 14th in XFP/G (16.3), but just 30th in FPG (13.4).

In other words, he’s seeing high-end WR2 volume, but producing like a low-end WR3. And so, although he ranks as one of the top 10 least-efficient players in fantasy. It’s a little understandable, given how poorly Arizona’s QBs have performed.

The good news is all that should change this week with Kyler Murray making his triumphant return. The Cardinals currently rank 3rd-worst in off-target throw rate (21.3%). But by the same stat last year, Murray ranked 4th-best of 47-qualifying QBs (12.1%).

Last year DeAndre Hopkins and Brown were rarely ever healthy at the same time. Across the 9 full games either one missed (with Murray under center), Arizona’s WR1 averaged 20.7 FPG (~WR10) with an 81% catchable target rate (~WR12).

In addition to improved efficiency, perhaps we should also expect more volume to come Brown’s way. Brown currently ranks 14th in XFP/G (16.3), even though Arizona is the only team to have zero games with a positive PROE this year. With Murray back under center, it would make logical sense for Arizona’s offense to lean more pass-heavy.

In earnest, Brown possesses fantasy WR1 upside, but he’s probably being viewed as a mid-range WR3 in nearly every season-long league.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans

FPG: 13.7, XFP/G: 14.5, DIFF: -0.8

DeAndre Hopkins currently ranks 13th among 83 qualifying WRs in fantasy points per route run (0.53) – nothing short of a miraculous feat considering he was saddled with league-worst levels of QB play before the ascension of Will Levis – Tennessee ranked dead-last in catchable passes per game (20.7) heading into Levis’ debut.

Levis has only played in two games thus far, and already he has the team’s single-game highs in air yards (382), deep throws (8), and accurate throw rate (62%). He also already has twice as many touchdown passes as all other Tennessee QBs combined. And among all 54 qualifying NFL QBs, he leads the league in HERO throw rate (13.2%).

It was impressive to see a hyper-efficient outing from Hopkins in Levis’ debut – 34.8 fantasy points on 6 targets. And although the production wasn’t there in Week 9, at least the volume was – 146 air yards, 11 targets, and a season-high 21.7 XFP (3rd-most among WRs). I think there’s a good chance Hopkins enjoys the best of both worlds this week, in a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay’s pass funnel defense which just gave up 470 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to C.J. Stroud.

5. Kyler Murray was a free fantasy QB1 you landed off waivers.

Here’s what I wrote in the offseason:

[Kyler Murray] ranks 3rd among all QBs in FPG over the last three seasons (22.2). I understand the concerns regarding his ACL injury and the implication that this would mean lesser rushing production this season, but it’s not quite a death knell either – Deshaun Watson tore his ACL late into the 2017 season (November), but would then average a career-best 40.1 rushing YPG over his final 8 games in 2018… Just Murray’s mere existence and theoretical upside serves as a massive feather in the cap for all late-round QB drafters; even if you whiffed on your late-round QB, Murray could be a free league-winner available off waivers.

The only thing I’ll add to this is that this seems to be an even more hospitable fantasy environment than I had imagined at the time. From Weeks 2-8, Josh Dobbs averaged 19.5 FPG (~QB9) and 0.52 FP/DB (~QB10) over his last 7 games with the Cardinals. If Dobbs could do that, it’s hard to imagine Murray can’t improve upon those numbers.

In other words, I’m expecting low-end QB1 production at worst from Murray throughout the remainder of the season. But probably high-end QB2 production this week, as he shakes off the rust in a neutral-at-best matchup against the Falcons.

6. Introducing the new and improved Diontae Johnson, who scores touchdowns and earns air yards…

Diontae Johnson has cleared 75 receiving yards in three straight games and has also eclipsed a 30.0% target share in back-to-back games.

In Week 9, he scored his first touchdown since Ben Roethlisberger retired, and also totaled 90 receiving yards (91 more than George Pickens). In Week 8, he commanded a career-high 192 air yards alongside an obscene 53.8% target share (before an injury late in the 3rd quarter). Over the last two weeks, he’s averaging 129.0 air yards, 11.5 targets, 24.4 XFP/G (~WR2), and 19.3 FPG (~WR8).

Even in a tough on-paper matchup against the Packers, Johnson stands out as an insane DFS value, priced as just the WR24 on DraftKings ($5,400). For season-long leagues, I’ll be starting him as a high-end WR2 this week.

7. Rachaad White BreakoutSZN?

Rachaad White has finished as a top-12 fantasy RB in three straight games. Over this span, he ranks 4th in snap share (79.5%), 8th in carries (42), 2nd in targets (17), 4th in XFP/G (18.5), and 6th in FPG (20.6). And Week 9 was his best performance yet – 51 of 63 snaps (81.0%, best on the week), 20 of 27 carries, 4 of 6 targets, 25.1 XFP (best among all RBs on the week), and 27.9 fantasy points (best). Hopefully, he can keep this up, and prove to be the league-winning bell cow I proclaimed him to be this past offseason.

8. Aaron Jones was officially “cut loose,” earning high-end RB1 volume.

In Week 9, HC Matt LaFleur kept his promise to “cut [Aaron Jones] loose,” following multiple weeks of limited participation as he worked his way back from a hamstring injury. Minus Emanuel Wilson (who only played on the final drive of the game in garbage time), Jones handled 20 of 29 carries and 6 of 7 targets out of the backfield. He totaled 20.8 XFP (2nd-most on the week) and scored 18.9 fantasy points (7th-most). This was legitimately terrific and rare usage – there have only been 5 instances of an RB handling 20-plus carries and 6-plus targets in a single game this year, and those RBs average 23.5 FPG in these games.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones flirts with low-end RB1 production throughout the remainder of the season, as A.J. Dillon’s participation starts to decline even further here (given his 3.26 YPC average).

9. Jonathan Taylor finally gets the sort of usage we were hoping for.

Jonathan Taylor appears to have finally taken over this Indianapolis backfield. In Week 9, he played on 75.4% of the team’s snaps (4th-most on the week) while handling 18 of 25 carries and 5 of 5 targets out of the backfield. This was good for 20.5 XFP (3rd-most) and 84% of the team’s backfield XFP (4th-most).

Taylor is also notably being used more in the passing game than ever before, recording a 19.2% target share last week (2nd-most of his career) and clearing 16.5% in 3 of his last 5 games – a feat he’s accomplished only three other times in his career.

Indianapolis currently has the 8th-most valuable backfield in fantasy, averaging 23.4 XFP/G. This means that if Taylor maintains an 84% share over the backfield, we should expect 19.7 XFP/G, which would rank 2nd-best among all RBs. Obviously, for a player of Taylor’s talents, this means he possesses massive league-winning potential with easy upside to finish as fantasy football’s overall RB1.

Truthfully, I’m a little disturbed by Taylor’s inefficiency in this game, totaling just 47 rushing yards on 18 attempts (2.61 YPC). (Carolina came into the week ranking bottom-5 in rushing YPG allowed and YPC allowed.) But I still think the biggest, most important takeaway is that Indianapolis still stuck with him despite this.

10. Lamar Jackson’s DFS-winning ceiling takes a big hit.

Lamar Jackson has scored 12.0 and 12.5 fantasy points over his last two games, down from a 25.4 FPG average over his previous six games. One reason for the decline in production? HC John Harbaugh’s intentional re-commitment to the RBs when inside the red zone.

Over the last two weeks, Lamar Jackson has zero carries and 1 pass attempt when inside the 10-yard-line. Over the same span, Baltimore RBs have 8 such carries.

Across Jackson’s previous six games, Jackson out-carried Baltimore’s RBs 10 to 9 inside the 10-yard-line, while also attempting 14 passes.

This is definitely something that’s going to regress to the mean, but this also makes Jackson a less attractive DFS play moving forward.

11. The rise and fall of Zay Flowers.

For multiple weeks I’ve continually griped about Zay Flowers, telling you this his fantasy production is a mirage. (Flowers ranks 18th in receptions, but just 72nd in receptions on balls thrown 5 or more yards downfield.) He’s being peppered with screens (league-high 31.1% designed target rate), but not consistently beating NFL CBs one-on-one. And the screens aren’t even really working, or at least aren’t helping the Ravens sustain drives and advance down the field.

But could it be? Could the Ravens finally be moving away from Flowers?

Flowers saw only 1 target last week and averages only 4.3 targets per game over his last three games. Over this span, Odell Beckham Jr. leads the team in TPRR (0.30), while Flowers ranks 5th, also behind Mark Andrews (0.28), Rashod Bateman (0.22), and Isaiah Likely (0.22).

But before you get too excited about OBJ, note that Flowers is still clearly the team’s WR1 by route share, while all of the other WRs compete for part-time usage in a frustrating 3-way committee. Through the first 3 quarters of the team’s 37-3 blowout, Flowers earned an 81% route share to OBJ’s 55%, Rashod Bateman’s 42%, and Nelson Agholor’s 39%.

12. Jerome Ford: Easy mid-range RB2 for fantasy despite not being allowed to score touchdowns.

Last week, Jerome Ford played on 63% of the team’s snaps while handling 20 of 37 carries and 7 of 9 targets out of the backfield. This was good for 20.3 XFP (5th-most on the week). He’s definitely still stuck in a committee, but the raw volume is still terrific on the RB-centric Browns. (Remember what we said earlier about Aaron Jones and RBs getting 20-plus carries and 6-plus targets in a single game.)

Ford is an extreme value on DraftKings this week, priced as just the RB19 ($5,300). But, also, I’d bet he goes over-owned in tournaments. Ford is a phenomenal value, but I seriously question his GPP-winning potential and touchdown upside – since Week 4, he’s played on just 8 of 38 snaps inside the red zone (21%).

13. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Week 9 usage possibly hints at an impending breakout.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks in receiving yards last week (63) and had twice as many catches (6) as the next-closest Seattle receiver. Not only that, but he finished the week with an eye-popping 41.2% first-read target share, which ranked 5th-most among all receivers.

This might not mean anything – it was a bizarre game from Seattle, who lost by 34 points and averaged only 3.2 yards per play (10th-worst of any team in any game this season) – or it could be a sign of things to come.

At the very least, it means that JSN is an underrated DFS option this week, priced as just the WR35 on this week’s gross slate ($4,100). He goes up against a Washington defense that is giving up a league-high +10.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs. And a Washington defense that plays two-high coverage at the 5th-highest rate in the league (57%). That feels important to note because JSN leads Seattle’s WRs in YPRR against two-high coverage (1.71).

14. Alvin Kamara’s stock trending down?

In Week 9, Alvin Kamara hit season-lows in snap share (50.0%), red zone snap share (52.9%), and carry share (33.3%). His 14.3% target share was his 2nd-worst of the season. And his 12.0 XFP marked the first time he’s been below 18.0 all year. This may have just been a one-week aberration, but I’m worried it’s not. To further that concern, note how his snap share has fallen in back-to-back games: 72% > 58% > 50%.

This isn’t great. But I’m not sure how much this matters, given that Kamara still leads all positions in XFP/G (22.3). Even if his usage does start to decline, the cavern between “best volume in the league” and “top-5 volume among all RBs” is still pretty vast.

  • Sam Howell hasn’t been as impressive from a real NFL perspective, but he’s been pretty great for fantasy. He’s exceeded 17.0 fantasy points in 7 of his 9 games, and ranks as fantasy football’s QB10 across the full season (18.7 FPG). A large part of this is raw volume and the fact that Washington is one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football – Washington ranks 3rd in 3rd in PROE this season (+9.8%), on a top-4 list that includes Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. And, actually, Howell has been quite a bit better from a real NFL perspective in recent weeks. Howell was sacked 4 or more times in 7 straight games, but that’s fallen to just 2.0 over his last two games. Uncoincidentally, Howell’s average time to throw has sped up to 2.47 seconds from 2.61.

  • Brock Purdy has struggled over his last three games – although a concussion may have negatively impacted his performance in at least one of these games – but was otherwise flawless throughout his short career. And even without injury adjustments, he still looks really good, both from a real-life NFL perspective and from a fantasy perspective. 1A) Over the last two seasons (postseason included), only Patrick Mahomes ranks better by EPA per play. 1B) The 49ers have scored 30-plus points in 10 of the 14 games he’s attempted at least 20 passes; by far the highest rate of any QB over this span. 2A) Since the start of last season (postseason included), Purdy ranks 5th among all QBs in FP/DB, behind only Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. 2B) Over the last two seasons, Purdy averages 18.2 fantasy points per start, which ranks 11th-best among all QBs, just barely behind Justin Herbert (18.5) and Kirk Cousins (18.4).

  • Josh Dobbs is so freaking cool. He made his third career start in Week 1 with the Cardinals, just 17 days after the team acquired him from the Browns. He struggled in that game but then averaged 18.7 FPG over his next 7 with the Cardinals (10th-most among QBs). In Week 9, just 5 days after being traded to Minnesota, Dobbs scored 24.9 fantasy points and helped lead his team to a 31-28 (all without WR Justin Jefferson). Keep in mind, this was even though he didn’t even start the game. And also, despite not ever taking a single rep with the offense in practice. Across the full season, Dobbs ranks behind only Lamar Jackson in rushing yards, and only 8 QBs have scored more total fantasy points.

Running Backs
  • Chuba Hubbard is clearly now the RB1 for the Carolina Panthers. This is a truly remarkable feat when you consider that the Panthers just signed Miles Sanders to a $25.4M deal [6th-most among RBs] several months ago… Over the last two weeks, Hubbard ranks 6th in snaps (86), 6th in carries (31), 11th in targets (8), 7th in XFP (33.2), but only 27th in fantasy points scored (18.1).

  • As I speculated last week, Kenneth Walker appears to remain the team’s clear RB1. The results were atrocious but… Through the first three-quarters of a game in which Seattle trailed throughout (gamescript which would theoretically benefit Zach Charbonnet), Walker handled 9 of 13 carries and 1 of 2 targets out of the backfield… I’m expecting a spike performance from Walker this week, given that the Seahawks are favored by 6.5 points against a Washington defense that just traded away their only two good players. Over the last two seasons, Walker averages 16.0 FPG in wins (~RB11) but only 11.0 FPG in losses (~RB31).

  • Either the training wheels have fully come off for Javonte Williams, or he’s just Sean Payton’s new Mark Ingram (an extremely gamescript-sensitive workhorse RB), or both. Across Williams’ last two games (both wins), he averaged 21.0 carries, 3.5 targets, 97.0 YFS, and 15.7 FPG. In all other games (all losses), he averaged just 11.5 carries, 3.0 targets, and 7.8 FPG. If you’re a Williams owner, you’re hoping it’s a little more of the former than the latter, as this isn’t a team we should expect to win many more games.

  • Over the last three weeks, Darrell Henderson has handled 56% of the snaps, 52% of the carries, and 88% of the targets out of the backfield. Royce Freeman is the only other Rams RB to earn a snap over this stretch. Factor in that Henderson has played on 83% of the team’s snaps inside the 10-yard line, and it’s clear he’s RB1 of this team until Kyren Williams returns (Week 12 at the earliest), albeit in something approximating a 60/40 committee (based on XFP).

  • Without wasting too many words on Baltimore’s backfield, which looked like a true three-way committee, I will say that Keaton Mitchell looks like a fairly enticing waiver wire add, even if he’s unlikely to ever be a meaningful contributor to your fantasy team… Through the first three quarters (in a game Baltimore won 37-3), Mitchell tied for a team-high 7 carries and a team-high 1 target. On just 9 carries, Mitchell exploded for 138 yards (15.3 YPC) and a score, while also forcing a league-best 9 missed tackles… Encouragingly, HC John Harbaugh said following last week’s game that (although this will indeed remain a rotation) he intends to ride the hot hand. And, obviously, Mitchell’s hand appears to be the hottest… That said, I wouldn’t get too carried away here. This will probably remain a frustrating low-upside three-way committee with Gus Edwards vulturing all of the near-end zone work. But who knows, I guess there’s like 3% chance he could be Baltimore’s De’Von Achane.

  • Through 9 games, Tyler Allgeier has out-carried Bijan Robinson 116 to 103. When Atlanta has advanced inside the 10-yard-line, Allgeier has out-carried Robinson 10 to 2 (tied with Cordarrelle Patterson). When Atlanta is leading in games, Allgeier out-carries Robinson 27 to 12. You might be asking, “Is this stupid?” Yes. Obviously yes. Allgeier has found the end zone just once over his last 8 games. And among 44 qualifying RBs, Robinson ranks 5th-best in YPC (5.02) while Allgeier ranks 4th-worst (3.20).

Wide Receivers
  • Keep an eye on Ja’Marr Chase’s status this week, as he battles through a back injury that clearly impacted him in Week 9. Chase had a first-read target share of 37.5% or better in 5 straight games, but that fell to just 23.3% last week (still above Tee Higgins’ 20.0%).

  • Dallas snapped A.J. Brown’s streak of consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards, but it was still a productive day for Brown, who scored 19.6 fantasy points on 9 targets. Some may chalk this up as an underwhelming performance, but I came away even more convicted of Brown’s potential to finish the season as fantasy football’s overall WR1. Dallas was an absolutely brutal matchup on paper, ranking best in FPG allowed to opposing WR1s (11.7), and Brown’s 19.6 fantasy points were more than that of any outside WR they’ve faced thus far. Better yet, and although it’s almost impossible to fathom, Brown’s volume appears to be improving. Brown earned a season-high 60.0% first-read target share last week, up from his previous high of 54.2% set in Week 7… Since Week 3, Brown has averaged an obscene 26.4 FPG (+2.2 more than the next-closest player), and now TE Dallas Goedert is expected to sit out the next 4-6 weeks.

  • Last season, across the 5 games Goedert missed, DeVonta Smith saw a +30% increase in receiving YPG (64.7 to 84.0), well above A.J. Brown’s bump of 12% (85.0 to 95.2). Interestingly, Smith’s volume only marginally improved (+7% more targets per game), especially in comparison to Brown (+19%), but Smith’s usage did improve in one noticeable way – his aDOT jumped from 8.4 to 13.0 (a +55% increase). Smith’s 2023 aDOT is already within this range (12.2, not far off Brown’s 13.5), so it’s hard for me to come up with an actionable conclusion here outside of the (obvious) following: Smith and Brown should benefit from Goedert’s absence (further condensing targets between the two of them), but Smith clearly has the most to gain if only due to Brown’s unreal every-week dominance.

  • Jakobi Meyers has now out-scored Davante Adams in 5 straight games. Across the full season, Meyers averages 15.2 FPG (~WR17) to Adams’ 14.0 (~WR23). Adams ranks 3rd among all WRs in first-read target share (40.4%) while Meyers ranks 25th (28.6%). Given the Jets’ propensity to take away a QB’s first read, this looks like another opportunity for Meyers to out-score Adams.

  • Adam Thielen scored only 7.9 fantasy points last week after 6 straight games with at least 15.0. This was disappointing, but not too surprising given the matchup – Indianapolis ranks 5th-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (-3.5), which is where Thielen runs 72% of his routes. Unfortunately, he gets another brutal matchup this week, against a Bears defense that ranks 2nd-best against slot WRs (-4.7).

  • Last week TE2 Noah Gray led the Chiefs in catches (3) and receiving yards (34)… Rashee Rice ranks 10th of 91 qualifying WRs in YPRR (2.61). Meanwhile, Skyy Moore (1.05) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (1.04) both rank outside of the top-70. Here’s Rice’s route share over the last four weeks: 39% > 56% > 59% > 47% (Week 9)… This is disgusting.

Tight Ends
  • Taysom Hill’s snap share has jumped to 53% over the last four weeks, up from 33% over the first five weeks of the season. Over this span, he has… *takes a deep breath* …26 carries (including 10 inside the 10-yard line), 19 targets, 4 pass attempts, 135 rushing yards, 126 receiving yards, 51 passing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, 1 receiving touchdown, and 1 passing touchdown. Add it all up, and Hill ranks 4th among all TEs in XFP/G (14.3, not including pass volume) and 2nd in FPG (18.0) over the past month of the season. Let me repeat this – over the last four weeks, Hill ranks behind only Travis Kelce (18.4) in FPG… He’s still a tricky player to truly trust – he ran a route on only 31% of the team’s dropbacks last week (33rd-most among TEs), but he also led the team in carries (11 to Kamara’s 9) – but it’s impossible to deny him at this point. I’ll be starting him this week as a low-end TE1.

  • In the three games since Dawson Knox went down with an injury, Dalton Kincaid has run a route on 76% of the team’s dropbacks, averaging 8.3 targets, 73.7 YPG, 14.7 XFP/G, and 16.7 FPG. Over this span, those numbers rank 7th-, 2nd-, 4th-, 4th-, and 7th-best. And what might be most impressive about all of this is his consistency – he’s hit 65 receiving yards or 15.5 fantasy points in all three games. If you own Kincaid, you’re starting him as an easy top-5 option this week.

  • Dalton Schultz is averaging 8.3 targets per game, 65.3 receiving YPG, 13.8 XFP/G, and 16.7 DK FPG over his last four games. Among slate-eligible TEs over the full season, those marks rank 2nd-, 1st-, 3rd-, and 1st-best. Across the full season, he’s also earned a position-high 8 end zone targets – as many as Travis Kelce and George Kittle have combined. He’s an obvious top DFS value this week, priced as just the TE6 on DraftKings ($4,900), up against a Bengals defense that is yielding a league-high +5.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs.

  • The TE position has been a massive focal point of Arizona’s passing attack – Trey McBride ranks 2nd (0.29), and Zach Ertz ranks 5th (0.24) among all TEs in TPRR. In his first game without Ertz, McBride earned 14 targets (most of any TE in any game this season) and a 37.8% target share (most of any TE in any game this season). He caught 10 of those targets for 95 yards (6th-most of any TE in any game this season). Last week, with an entirely new (and completely incompetent) QB under center, McBride’s results were poor, but he did again finish top-6 among all TEs' target share (25.0%) and first-read target share (28.6%). Obviously, the healthy return of Kyler Murray could be massive for McBride’s fantasy potential… But with all of this being said, it’s a little concerning McBride’s route share fell from 88% (2nd-most) to 59% (19th-most) last week. And that his snap share dropped from 83% (10th-most) to 67% (20th-most).

  • Complain about the lack of volume for Kyle Pitts all you want, but Jonnu Smith currently ranks 3rd among all TEs in YPRR (2.12). (Pitts ranks 14th.) On top of that, Smith has a near-perfect schematic schedule throughout the fantasy playoffs. And I mention this because it is absolutely hilarious for me to imagine Smith being the Falcons player you needed to draft in order to win your league. (That’s probably not going to be the case, but can’t help but laugh at the fact that it legitimately might be!)

  • Even without Kirk Cousins, T.J. Hockenson still got his XFPs. He finished the week with 12 targets (2nd-most of any player), a 33.3% target share (4th-most of any receiver), and 20.4 XFP (5th-most of any receiver). He’s an incredibly strong DFS value this week (a week without Travis Kelce), priced as just the TE5 on DraftKings ($5,000).

Top Regression Candidates

DraftKings XFP Values

1. Diontae Johnson, WR (3.2X)

2. T.J. Hockenson, TE (3.1X)

3. Robert Woods, WR (3.1X)

4. Zay Jones, WR (3.1X)

5. Marquise Brown, WR (3.0X)

6. Elijah Moore, WR (2.9X)

7. Alexander Mattison (2.9X)

8. Michael Thomas, WR (2.8X)

9. Noah Brown, WR (2.8X)

10. Alvin Kamara ,RB (2.7X)

11. Kyle Pitts, TE (2.7X)

12. Jayden Reed, WR (2.7X)

Minimum Fantasy Points Lost Due to Defensive Pass Interference + Fantasy Points Negated by Penalty

1. A.J. Brown, WR (34.1)

2. Calvin Ridley, WR (26.5)

3. Courtland Sutton, WR (26.0)

4. C.J. Stroud, QB (23.5)

5. Keenan Allen, WR (22.9)

6. Tua Tagovailoa, QB (22.5)

7. Odell Beckham Jr., WR (22.3)

8. Justin Herbert, QB (22.2)

9. Tyler Lockett, WR (22.1)

10. Patrick Mahomes, QB (21.3)

XFP Team Market Share

1. Saquon Barkley, RB (30%)

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB (29%)

3. Ja’Marr Chase, WR (28%)

4. Garrett Wilson, WR (27%)

5. Alvin Kamara, RB (27%)

6. Tyreek Hill, WR (27%)

7. Josh Jacobs, RB (26%)

8. A.J. Brown, WR (26%)

9. Puka Nacua, WR (25%)

10. Keenan Allen, WR (25%)

11. Stefon Diggs, WR (25%)

12. Justin Jefferson, WR (24%)

XFP per Team Play

1. Ja’Marr Chase, WR (0.33)

2. Tyreek Hill, WR (0.32)

3. Justin Jefferson, WR (0.32)

4. Christian McCaffrey, RB (0.31)

5. Alvin Kamara, RB (0.31)

6. Josh Jacobs, RB (0.30)

7. Keenan Allen, WR (0.30)

8. Stefon Diggs, WR (0.30)

9. Davante Adams, WR (0.28)

10. A.J. Brown, WR (0.28)

11. Puka Nacua, WR (0.28)

12. Garrett Wilson, WR (0.28)

Scott Barrett combines a unique background in philosophy and investing alongside a lifelong love of football and spreadsheets to serve as Fantasy Points’ Chief Executive Officer.