Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.
A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.
Teams on Bye: Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Minnesota, Pittsburgh
Cin @ Bal
Targets:
Trey Hendrickson (DL, Cin) — Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard have a great matchup this week. Baltimore runs the ball at the 5th-highest rate and subsequently is in the top-10 for DL fantasy production. Hendrickson has continued his big play dominance from last season. He has 5.5 sacks so far, and the Ravens could provide a much-needed tackle floor for Hendrickson. I’m also expecting a bounceback game for Hubbard as well.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
LB Patrick Queen, Bal - thigh
CB Tavon Young, Bal - knee
Was @ GB
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Jamin Davis (LB, Was) — Davis only took 56% of the snaps last week, despite posting strong numbers (6-5-0). Not only are we not convinced this was Davis’ breakout game, Washington is discussing playing Landon Collins more in the box. That will likely be at Davis’ expense.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DT Jonathan Allen, Was - knee
CB William Jackson III, Was - knee
OLB Preston Smith, GB - oblique
CB Kevin King, GB - shoulder
S Darnell Savage, GB - concussion
Atl @ Mia
Targets:
Christian Wilkins (DT, Mia) — Wilkins continues to lead the Miami DLs in snaps and had a sack to go with his 3 tackles last week. This week, his matchup is exciting. The Falcons surrender the 3rd-most FPG to opposing DLs, including 19 tackles and 1.5 sacks to DLs per game.
Avoids:
Jerome Baker (LB, Mia) — Last week, I mentioned that the inconsistent-for-fantasy Dolphins LB was a good start in a great matchup. He came through for us, with 8 tackles (5 solo) and 3 QB hits. But this week is a different story. Atlanta is just 26th in LB fantasy production. That combined with the assist-heavy Miami tackle crew and Baker might be in line for more like 2 solos/3 assists this week.
Injuries:
OUT
OLB Dante Fowler, Jr., Atl - knee
QUESTIONABLE
DT John Jenkins, Mia - knee
DE Jaelan Phillips, Mia - ankle
CB Byron Jones, Mia - achilles/groin
CB Xavien Howard, Mia - shoulder/groin
S Brandon Jones, Mia - ankle
Car @ NYG
Targets:
Leonard Williams (DE, NYG) — Since Week Two, Williams’ 33 tackles are 2nd-most for a DL. He continues to be underappreciated. The same can be said for DT Austin Johnson. Carolina gives up 19 tackles and 2.5 sacks per game to DLs, which makes them the best matchup for opposing DLs.
Jabrill Peppers (S, NYG) — After missing two games with a hamstring injury, Peppers (80%) bounced back with a solid 9-tackle (5 solo) performance. Particularly with New York’s LB room pretty thin at the moment, Peppers could have more tackle opportunity going forward.
Jeremy Chinn (S, Car) — After just 11 tackles in his first three weeks, Chinn now has 19 tackles in his last three weeks. He’s also getting a little extra help with LB Shaq Thompson being out again. WIth Thompson sidelined last week, Chinn racked up 9 tackles. The Giants produce top-10 production to opposing DBs.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
LB Shaq Thompson, Car - foot
NYJ @ NE
Targets:
Kyle Dugger (S, NE) — Dugger seems to have worked his way into the good graces of Bill Belichick. His snaps have been high lately, and solid production has followed. Dugger added 8 more solos and an INT last week, giving him 35 tackles in his last three games.
Avoids:
C.J. Mosley (LB, NYJ) — Mosley is still one of my season-long favorites, but his hamstring hasn’t been progressing well this week. He will be a true game-time decision. Even if he’s active, they may elect to be cautious with the crown jewel of their defense.
Injuries:
OUT
DB Jonathan Jones, NE - shoulder
DOUBTFUL
LB C.J. Mosley, NYJ - hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
S Marcus Maye, NYJ - ankle
I’m not kidding, 11 of New England’s defensive starters are listed as “questionable.” This is just what Bill Belichick does. Assume every NE IDP is “questionable.”
KC @ Ten
Targets:
David Long, Jr. (LB, Ten) — Long has at least 8 tackles in three of four games since taking over for Jayon Brown. Although they signed former Titan Avery WIlliamson, Willliamson didn’t cut into Long’s snaps last week and we’re not expecting anything to change this week.
Avoids:
Juan Thornhill (S, KC) — Thornhill has supplanted Daniel Sorensen as the safety next to Tyrann Mathieu. Sorensen was massively productive in that spot, but Thornhill is a very different player. Thornhill had just 3 solos (though he did have a TFL) last week and has a bad matchup this week. The Titans run so much that deep safeties like Thornhill rarely see enough action to produce for us.
Injuries:
OUT
LB Anthony Hitchens, KC - tricep
LB Monty Rice, Ten - groin
QUESTIONABLE
DT Chris Jones, KC - hand
CB Charvarius Ward, KC - quadriceps
OLB Bud Dupree, Ten - questionable
DB Amani Hooker, Ten - groin
PROBABLE
S Tyrann Mathieu, KC - thumb/toe
Hou @ Ari
Targets:
Jonathan Greenard (DE, Hou) — Greenard has caught the eye of everyone from Houston’s coaching staff to our own Greg Cosell. As his health and snaps have improved, Greenard replaced Whitney Mercilus — who was recently cut — and should see significant snaps going forward. He’ll get a great matchup in his first official start. The Cardinals are top-5 in DL FPA (17 tackles, 2.5 TFL, and 1.5 sacks to DLs per game). And if the expected game script holds up, the Cardinals could be running a ton in the second half. That will give Greenard a strong tackle floor this week.
Isaiah Simmons (LB, Ari) — Simmons has been playing well in his sophomore campaign and might have more tackle opportunity this week than usual. Not only is every-down LB Jordan Hicks questionable with toe and ankle injuries, but the Texans are the 10th-best matchup for opposing LBs. It would seem like the undefeated Cardinals would take it easy with the veteran Hicks this week. Arizona is a 17-point favorite. Yeah, I think they’ll be OK with Hicks.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
OLB Devon Kennard, Ari - shoulder
ILB Jordan Hicks, Ari - Toe/Ankle
ILB Tanner Vallejo, Ari - Hand
ILB Zaven Collins, Ari - shoulder
Det @ LAR
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Kenny Young (LB, LAR) — Here are Young’s snap shares over the last three weeks: 99%, 65%, 56%. After recording 10 tackles in two of his first three games, Young hasn’t surpassed 5 tackles in his last three games. Even in a brutal bye week, Young is hard to trust. At least he has a good matchup if you have to take a shot. The Lions produce the most FPG to LBs this season.
Derrick Barnes (LB, Det) — Barnes had a strong Week Six: 9 tackles (6 solo). And while we really want this to be a sign that Barnes is officially on the LB2 radar, Barnes not only benefited from a great matchup last week — the Bengals are the 5th-best opponent for LBs — he also played just 44%. This week, his matchup is poor. The Rams are dead last in LB FPG. Barnes is a tough start.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
OLB Trey Flowers, Det - knee
DE Nick Williams, Det - knee
Phi @ LV
Targets:
Alex Singleton (LB, Phi) — Even though he doesn’t even start every game, Singleton’s tackle rate can’t be ignored. His 21.6% tackle rate should be unsustainable (elite players are in the 15-17% range), but he had a 25% tackle rate on 750 snaps last season. He’s consistently getting it done for fantasy and he happens to have a great matchup this week. The Raiders produce the 2nd-most FPG to LBs this season.
Avoids:
Anthony Harris (S, Phi) — Harris (hands/groin) is listed as questionable, but I think it’s worse than it appears. He went from full practice on Thursday to DNP on Friday, which is never a good sign. He’s hard to trust this week, particularly in a poor matchup. Las Vegas is 23rd in FPG to DBs. I don’t like those Vegas odds.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
S Anthony Harris, Phi - hands/groin
Chi @ TB
Targets:
Vita Vea (DT, TB) — Vea is a wrecking ball who has started to up his sack game lately. He has a half-sack in back-to-back games and has a dream matchup this week. In fact, so does Ndamukong Suh and possibly Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Basically, start all your TB DLs. Not only is Chicago 4th in DL FPA, the Bucs are favored by 2 TDs. Vea is in line to keep that sack streak going and then some.
Antoine Winfield, Jr. (S, TB) — Winfield is healthy and in line to return this week. Just in time to bail you out of your bye-week DB dilemma. As a reminder, the sophomore had at least 6 tackles in three of his four games before going down with an injury.
Avoids:
Akiem Hicks (DT, Chi) — Not only is Hicks nursing a sore groin, the Bucs are one of the worst matchups for DLs. Tom Brady basically throws on every down-and-distance imaginable, and his O-line and veteran pocket presence makes him a tough sack. No sacks and no run game? Where’s the fun in that??
Injuries:
OUT
LB Lavonte David, TB - ankle
S Tashaun Gipson, Chi - hip
CB Richard Sherman, TB - hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
DT Akiem Hicks, Chi - groin
DE Bilal Nichols, Chi - knee
OLB Khalil Mack, Chi - foot
LB Danny Trevathan, Chi - personal
OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, TB - shoulder/hand
Ind @ SF
Targets:
Khari Willis (S, Ind) — Willis has posted DB1 numbers in his three healthy games. His 14.6% tackle rate is better than stud safeties Derwin James and Logan Ryan. He doesn’t have a great matchup, as the 49ers produce just the 26th-most FPG to DBs, but Willis plays on all three levels, the way our other stud safeties do. Have I properly articulated the “stud safety” moniker I’m trying to pin on Willis?
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
DE Kemoko Turay, Ind - groin
CB Rock Ya-Sin, Ind - ankle
QUESTIONABLE
DE Kwity Paye, Ind - hamstring
LB Darius Leonard, Ind - ankle/knee
CB Xavier Rhodes, Ind - ankle
NO @ Sea
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Jamal Adams (S, Sea) — Oh, great. Adams has already been disappointing this season but when the worst bye week hits, he’s got a brutal matchup. The Saints are 32nd in opposing DB production. And since there are only 32 NFL teams, that’s basically pretty bad. Hopefully Adams kicks that big-play game into high gear this week.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DE Darrell Taylor, Sea - neck
CB Sidney Jones, Sea - concussion
