Are you getting a spooky feeling? No, it’s not a specter from another dimension haunting you — it’s the pressure of knowing the fantasy football season will soon enter double-digit weeks. This game is a whole new beast as soon as November begins. Final playoff spots will be decided this month, and the clock is ticking on making substantial upgrades. Fantasy Points knows its loyal base of first-time managers following this series is up for the task ahead.
But if this is your first visit, here’s the lowdown: Each week, we’ll talk through the five most important things to be aware of for the NFL week ahead and how it matters for fantasy football in a straightforward, teachable way. My goal is for you to elevate from beginner status to being a top-notch team manager who can win a championship.
Our last edition focused on being a contender. November requires a mindset shift, and knowing how to manage a winning roster is crucial. We’ll be adding more tools to that proverbial tool belt throughout this exercise to help managers further boost those title odds. In the words of our very own Brett Whitefield before every episode of the NFL First Read podcast, let’s get after it:
Thing #1: Exploit The News Cycle
On top of tracking stats, being aware of NFL media coverage and storylines is vital to fantasy success. Leveraging what’s going on is a valuable skill. In case you didn’t know, the league’s trade deadline is this Tuesday, November 4th, so now feels like the perfect time to help managers understand how to exploit the news cycle when making deals:
The reason you’ll find stock market terms in different fantasy articles and podcasts is because a lot of practical analysis is done through the lens of viewing players as assets. Managers actively use this framing to determine waiver moves, whether they know it or not. The value of an asset depends on stats and health, of course, but also on how individual players are covered in media. Swings in opinion driven by narratives provide managers with opportunities to strike.
Rumors often swirl about players getting more involved in the offense or being traded. The names at the center of this positive buzz are often quality “sell high” candidates. Unless a trending player is a fixture in your starting lineup or one you feel strongly about holding onto, this is the time to cash out. The value generated is only temporary, though, because once the potential event(s) happen, the window closes. Research, make a decision, and act ASAP.
Identifying “buy low” targets works similarly. Struggling or injured players often receive negative attention, which certainly makes sense. But unless there’s a genuinely good reason to be wary that’s supported by data or a team’s real-life circumstances, try to make a move and get a bargain deal. There’s plenty more that goes into figuring out whether it’s worth it to pull the trigger on time-sensitive moves, so let’s talk more about the source of many narratives.
Thing #2: The Concept of “Coachspeak”
There are two primary avenues through which narratives are pushed: rumors from league insiders like ESPN’s Adam Schefter and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, and quotes from coaches and players. Sometimes insider sources are wrong; don’t believe everything you hear. Managers should also apply that skepticism to coaches. We don’t always get the whole truth.
It’s not uncommon for team officials to be coy when addressing certain topics. Revealing too much information will make it easier for opponents to game plan against them, so there’s no real incentive for blurting out what’s going on all the time. These more obscure quotes are what’s considered “coachspeak,” and there’s a certain amount of reading the tea leaves and using context clues required to draw actionable takeaways from their answers.
We’ll use the example of a team benching its starting quarterback. If a QB1 is struggling and not showing signs of improvement, teams will usually make a change. Coaches won’t always say it outright, though; instead, phrases like “weighing every option” or “assessing throughout the week” are used to deflect. Read between the lines — not coming to a starter’s defense is telling.
An excellent resource for learning more about this topic is The Coachspeak Index, a database that compiles hours of interviews from NFL coaches created by occasional Fantasy Points collaborator and author Greg Brainos. Checking out his work is a solid next step toward fine-tuning your own radar for what’s real and what’s noise when considering making a deal.
Thing #3: Trade For Players On Bye/With Upcoming Bye Weeks
Outside of negative narratives or performance, all players see a temporary value loss when they’re unavailable. Managers obviously get zero points when their starters don’t participate, and that’s why bye weeks are super irritating to deal with. If your regular weekly lineup is past those issues and you have some depth to offer league mates struggling to find starters, consider targeting their players who are currently on or about to be on bye.
Not only will these swaps keep desperate opponents afloat in the “now,” but you’ll receive a substantial upgrade for your own roster in the future when said player returns to action. Plus, there’s nothing wrong with exploiting the circumstance of a rival team’s roster for personal gain. It’s a classic “help me help you” situation. We all want to get stronger before the fantasy playoffs start, right? Making these specific types of moves is how that gets done. Start scanning now.
Thing #4: Lock In Your Lineup On Fridays, Not Sunday Mornings
This might seem silly to mention so deep into the season, but here’s a tweak that everyone can make to their roster management routine: don’t wait until the last minute to make start/sit calls. Why leave all decision-making for Sunday morning before kickoff? All that does is cause stress.
Even if there’s a health-based reason for not wanting to make a final call, set the lineup anyway. Last week’s article talked about injury contingency plans for a reason. If you’ve planned properly, then you can make this singular roster move when the time comes. The rest should already be decided. Don’t let this advice stop anyone from tuning into whatever pre-kickoff NFL coverage they’re accustomed to; it’s just another reminder always to be proactive.
Thing #5: Dive Into The Fantasy Points Data Suite
The Fantasy Points website offers several free options for research, including dedicated pages for basic player stats, among others. But did you know that there’s an entire world of more advanced data that we chart in-house that gives managers an even bigger edge? Checking out the Fantasy Points Data Suite might just be the wisest decision you make all season.
Our team of film experts carefully comb through every single NFL game and plot various data points for nearly anything you can think of, from a quarterback’s accuracy to how much separation receivers get from defenders. This is truly game-changing stuff at the fingertips of anyone with an internet connection. While much of the data is behind a paywall, we offer plenty of free information to non-subscribers. Yeah, seriously!
Our own Ryan Heath recently wrote an article explaining the five new tools Fantasy Points is granting folks access to and how they can be utilized for fantasy. We’re not asking managers to poke around and figure out all the “how-to” on their own. Give that a read and then start digging in. You’ll be happy you did.
