Kansas City Chiefs (1-2, 0-3 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2, 1-2), 1 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 30.75, Eagles 23.75
Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 7.5 to 7, 55 to 54.5
Weather: 70 degrees, 30% chance of rain, 5-10 mph
Chiefs Injuries to Watch: DE Frank Clark (hamstring, questionable), CB Rashad Fenton (concussion, out), CB Charvarius Ward (quad, questionable)
Eagles Injuries to Watch: LT Jordan Mailata (knee, out), LG Isaac Seumalo (foot, IR), S K’Von Wallace (shoulder, IR)
Brolley’s Chiefs Stats and Trends
The Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games, including a 1-5 stretch in their last six road games.
Kansas City is 5-2 toward over in its last seven road games.
The Chiefs are looking to avoid their first road losing streak since Week 13 of 2017.
The Chiefs lost the turnover battle 4-0 in their Week 3 loss to the Chargers, and Patrick Mahomes has already halfway to his six INTs from 2020. He’s still been great for our purposes with 24+ FP and three TD passes in every game, but he averaged just 5.9 YPA in last week’s loss. The Eagles will play a similar zone defense approach against Mahomes this week, and they’ve given up just 197.0 passing yards per game (5th-fewest). Dak Prescott managed 238/3 passing while averaging 9.2 YPA last week.
Travis Kelce posted a healthy 7/104 receiving on 11 targets last week, but he fell below 20+ FP for the first time in 10 games (postseason included). Kelce has 6+ catches and 75+ yards in each of his first three games this season, and the Eagles just got torched by Dalton Schultz (6/80/2 receiving) last week.
Tyreek Hill has been limited the last two weeks with just 8/70 receiving on 11 targets after he ripped the Browns for 11/197/1 on 15 looks in the season opener. It’s his worst two-game stretch since he posted 5/55 receiving on 10 targets in Weeks 11 and 13 in 2019, which included a game he left in the first quarter for a hamstring injury. The Eagles are giving up the fewest FPG (22.0) and yards per game (98.0) to WRs through three weeks.
Mecole Hardman hit double-digit FP for the second straight week after scoring for the first time against the Chargers. He finished behind Demarcus Robinson in routes (37 to 31) but he owns a 15% target share in the early going. The Chiefs signed Josh Gordon this week, which is a sign they’re looking to improve the receiver behind Tyreek and Kelce.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire will face another defense that invites opponents to run the ball, and he took advantage of it last week after an early lost fumble. CEH lost his second fumble in as many weeks in Week 3, but Andy Reid stuck with him and it paid off with 17/100 rushing and 2/9/1 receiving against the Chargers. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 28/155/2 rushing and 4/26 receiving against the Eagles last week.
Brolley’s Eagles Stats and Trends
The Eagles had a four-game home ATS win streak in Week 2 against the 49ers.
Philly is 6-2 toward unders in its last eight games as an underdog.
The Chiefs and Lions are giving up the most points per game (31.7) in the early going.
Eagles RBs combined for just three rushing attempts against the Cowboys, which were the fewest by any team in any game over the last 20 seasons. Miles Sanders handled two of those carries for 27 yards and he added 3/28 receiving on four targets. HC Nick Sirianni has lost the plot with arguably the offense’s most explosive player. Sanders had 15/74 rushing and 4/39 receiving in the season opener but he totaled just 15/82 rushing and 4/32 receiving the last two weeks. Sirianni will have chances to run the ball this week against a Chiefs’ defense that’s allowing 5.0 YPC to RBs through three weeks.
Jalen Hurts benefitted from last week’s bizarre gameplan, as he played a hand in 94% of Philly’s plays in Week 3. He finished with 21+ FP for the third straight week despite finishing with his fewest rushing yards in a full start with 35. Lamar Jackson posted 16/107/2 rushing in this matchup back in Week 2.
DeVonta Smith hasn’t had much of a chance the last two weeks with just 5/44 receiving on 13 mostly ugly targets from Hurts, which stings after he posted 6/71/1 receiving on eight targets in the season opener. Jalen Reagor has hit double-digit FP in two of the first three games after he turned his eight targets into 5/53 receiving last week. Smith has caught just 52% of his targets with an aDOT of 9.7 yards while Reagor owns a 68% catch rate with an aDOT of 9.7 yards. The Chiefs are giving up the 10th-most FPG (40.9) to WRs this season.
Zach Ertz has more routes (46 to 39) and targets (8 to 6) than Dallas Goedert in the last two weeks in more negative gamescripts. Both players have just one game with double-digit FPG through three weeks. The Chiefs have yet to give up a touchdown to the position, but they’re giving up 14.6 YPR and the fifth-most receiving yards per game (77.3).
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Week 1-3 – Pace (seconds in between plays): 26.9 (10th)
Week 1-3 – Plays per game: 65.3 (29th)
Week 1-3 – Pass: 62.7% (12th) | Run: 37.3% (21st)
Week 1-3 – Pace: 25.6 (4th)
Week 1-3 – Plays per game: 60.7 (23rd)
Week 1-3 – Pass: 60.4% (19th) | Run: 39.6% (14th)
Why are the Chiefs off to a sluggish start? Well, it’s really hard to win ball games when your defense is struggling as bad as Kansas City’s – even if you have Patrick Mahomes. Through three weeks, the Chiefs are 32nd in yards per play allowed (7.0), 31st in drives ending in a score (50%), and 25th in opponent time of possession allowed per drive (3:01). It leaves the offense with thin margins to live on when the defense can’t get off of the field. Combine Kansas City’s combustible defense with these two offenses that play fast and we have a nice cocktail for a shootout. Chiefs’ games have combined for 62, 71, and 54 total points scored to start this season and with their defense bleeding yards and points, this could be the game of the week if the Eagles move the ball better than they did last week. HC Nick Sirriani simply has to run the ball more, especially considering that Kansas City is giving up 5.03 YPC (30th) and a 55.9% success rate (32nd) on the ground.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
The Eagles have been the stingiest defense to wideouts this season (22.0 FPG). They are holding entire opposing WR units to an average under 100 receiving yards (98.0) — the only defense to currently achieve that feat. It’s not like you’re going to sit Tyreek Hill… but this is a heck of a chance for Travis Kelce against an Eagle defense that gave up 2 scores to Dalton Schultz last week. Just keep in mind that Philly will be getting S Rodney McLeod back this week, a huge boost to their chances of slowing down Kelce. But “slowing down” Kelce means he’s still likely the TE1 for fantasy.
For Kansas City, it’s the exact opposite to Philadelphia limiting splash plays in the passing game. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-highest completion percentage on 20+-yard (18.5%) and the highest of 40+-yard receptions (7.69%). KC is also dealing with health issues at cornerback. Charvarius Ward was forced to miss Week 3 with a quadriceps injury. L’Jarius Sneed is also managing a quadriceps ailment of his own and Rashad Fenton is currently in the concussion protocol. All told, the Chiefs are obliging the second-most overall FPG to QBs (25.3), the most pure rushing FPG (8.33). It’s a smash spot for Jalen Hurts in a projected shootout.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
You know what to do with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Patrick Mahomes. Honestly, I’m trying to think of a situation in which I’d sit any of those guys in a season-long format and coming up empty — maybe Mahomes if I have Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson. But if that’s the case… why haven’t you made a trade already?
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the draw for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH had his second crippling fumble in two weeks in Week 3, and for most backs and most coaches, that would be curtains. But Andy Reid did something that might be uncommon of current NFL coaches — he stuck with CEH, and he got rewarded. Before his fumble early in the second quarter against the Chargers, CEH was running better than he had all season, with 6 carries for 36 yards. And after the fumble (and Reid’s vote of confidence by leaving him in the game), CEH ran angrier than we’ve seen him perhaps in his entire career. He finished Sunday’s loss with 17/100 rushing and 2/9/1 receiving on 2 targets while playing 62% of the offensive snaps (Darrel Williams had a 34% snap share). The major problem for Edwards-Helaire remains — Mahomes simply doesn’t check the ball down. But I’ll take some positives from the fact that he ran his ass off once Reid decided not to bench him. Maybe more coaches should try that. Against an Eagles’ split-safety look that is similar to one the Chargers employ — and one against which Dallas decided to run it heavily last week — I like CEH as an RB2.
So, let’s talk about those secondary receivers. Mecole Hardman is always in play as a WR3 because he can pop off a big play in this offense, but there seems to be no rhyme nor reason to it happening. Same with Demarcus Robinson. Can you stash Josh Gordon? I mean, sure. But what are the chances he’s anything more — statistically, at least — than a Hardman or Robinson who pops off every once in a while but it’s never predictable? In the last eight NFL seasons, since Gordon’s earth-shattering 2013 campaign, he’s topped 20 FP in a PPR league twice. Cooper Kupp has done it three times… this season alone.
I don’t think Philadelphia and coach Nick Sirianni are going to do anything so mind-bendingly stupid as to give their RBs just 3 carries — an NFL record low — against the Chiefs this week after they did so against the Cowboys last week. Sirianni essentially told reporters that he thought the Eagles would have to win in a shootout against the Cowboys, and to his credit, he was likely right. Dallas did score 41 points. But the game was in Dallas, and Dallas is used to playing trackmeets.
Sirianni is a rookie head coach with, essentially, a rookie QB in Jalen Hurts. It was a stupid gameplan, and if he thinks he can get away with it against Kansas City and Mahomes… Sirianni might not be long for a job. I just don’t think he’ll look at his mistakes from last week and make them again. I anticipate Miles Sanders will be a major part of the gameplan against Kansas City, a defense surrendering the 4th-most FPG to RBs so far. Runs, the screen game, etc. It should all be in play for Sanders.
The Eagles should also employ more play action to protect Hurts — their offensive line will be down three starters from Week 1. LT Jordan Mailata (knee) is week to week, RG Brandon Brooks (pec) is on short-term IR, and LG Isaac Seumalo (foot) is out for the year. Andre Dillard played well against the Cowboys at LT last week, but the Eagles need to focus on getting the ball out of Hurts’ hands quickly. It worked against Atlanta in Week 1, and they’ve since abandoned it. Nonetheless, Hurts is getting it done for fantasy, and is a slam-dunk QB1 this week.
As for the pass catchers, I think DeVonta Smith is a WR3, and I’d love to see Quez Watkins get more work — that kid has juice. Meanwhile, Jalen Reagor could have had a TD last week but Hurts underthrew it. Both Watkins and Reagor are viable punt plays.
The Chiefs are giving up 77.3 yards per game to TEs, but which Eagle do we trust? Zach Ertz has run more routes than Dallas Goedert in each of the last two games, as Goedert has been used a little more to pass block. They’re both fringy streaming options.