Los Angeles Rams (7-3, 4-6 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (8-3, 9-2), 4:25 p.m.
Brolley’s Rams Stats and Trends
The Rams have dropped four straight games ATS and they’ve been blown out by a combined 33 points in consecutive games against the 49ers and Titans despite entering as a combined 10.5-point favorites in those contests.
Los Angeles is 4-1-1 toward unders in its last six games.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams stumbled into their bye with a pair of multi-score losses to the Titans and 49ers. He needed 89 attempts to throw for 537 yards (6.0 YPA) with two TDs and four INTs, and he recorded his two worst fantasy performances in the process with a combined 26.9 FP. The Rams certainly needed the break to adjust their offense and to work OBJ into the mix. We’ll see how Sean McVay assistant Joe Barry attacks his former boss with his Packers’ defense. Kirk Cousins excelled in this matchup last week with 341/3 passing.
Cooper Kupp comes out of his bye leading the league in receiving yards (1141), receptions (85), and receiving TDs (10), and he’s second to only Tyreek Hill in targets (122 to 116), who has a one-game advantage on him. The Packers just allowed their biggest WR performance to Justin Jefferson last week, who scored 37.2 FP on 8/169/2 receiving.
Van Jefferson has 3+ catches in five straight games and he has 6+ targets in four straight contests. He’s posted his two highest snap shares in the last two games (96%, 95%), and he’ll be needed to take on a much bigger role moving forward with Robert Woods done for the season. Jefferson posted 6/46/1 receiving against the Packers in the playoffs last season.
Odell Beckham should have a much bigger role coming out of Los Angeles’ bye after posting 2/18 receiving on three targets and 15 snaps in his Rams’ debut. OBJ has 60+ receiving yards just four times and 5+ catches four times in his last 14 games over the last two seasons. The Packers are giving up the seventh-fewest FPG (32.6) to WRs this season.
Tyler Higbee has barely strung together two double-digit performances in a row after falling below 10 FP in five straight games. He has just three TDs this season and he’s topped 50+ receiving yards just once since the season opener. The Packers gave up 11+ FP to TEs in three straight games in Weeks 8-10 before they held Tyler Conklin to 3/35 receiving last week.
Darrell Henderson has finished with fewer than 10 FP and 65 scrimmage yards in three of his last four games, but he’s still seen a snap share of 60% or better in every game he’s played. He’s also averaged 5.9 YPC over the last three weeks, but HC Sean McVay has abandoned the run with just 30 carries in that span — they had two lopsided losses in Weeks 9-10. The Packers are giving up the ninth-fewest FPG (22.2) to RBs this season, but Dalvin Cook went for 25/115/1 scrimmage last week.
Brolley’s Packers Stats and Trends
The Packers had their nine-game ATS win streak snapped last week, but they’ve covered in four straight home games.
Green Bay played over the total last week for the first time in eight contests.
Aaron Rodgers is playing through a painful toe injury, but he still completed 23/33 passes for a season-high 385 yards (11.7 YPA) and four TDs in the defeat. He’s now thrown for multiple passing TDs in eight of his 10 games. Rodgers recorded 296/2 passing with a rushing TD in Green Bay’s Divisional Round victory over the Rams last season.
Davante Adams doubled his touchdown production in Week 11, hanging 7/115/2 receiving on eight targets against the Vikings. He’s posted 6+ catches in four straight games, and he has 75+ yards in five straight games with Rodgers in the lineup. Adams posted 9/66/1 receiving on 10 targets against Jalen Ramsey and company in the playoffs.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been slow out of the gates since he returned to the lineup off of his hamstring injury in Week 9, but he finally exploded in Week 11 with Allen Lazard (shoulder) inactive. MVS saw a team-high 10 targets (30% share) against the Vikings, which he turned into 4/123/1 receiving thanks in large part to a 75-yard touchdown strike. The Rams have been stingy downfield, allowing just 11.5 YPR to WRs this season, and MVS managed just 4/33 receiving on eight targets against them in the Divisional Round last season.
Aaron Jones is trending toward returning off of his knee injury this week after a one-week layoff. A.J. Dillon turned his 17 touches into 97 yards as the team’s bellcow back last week against the Vikings. Jones had 4+ catches in each of his last five games playing with Rodgers, but he hadn’t topped 15 carries in a game since Week 3 with Dillon taking on a bigger role. Jones posted 113/1 scrimmage against the Rams last postseason, and Los Angeles is giving the 14th-fewest FPG (22.8) to RBs this season.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 27.1 (6th)
Plays per game: 67.6 (12th)
Pass: 64.6% (8th) | Run: 35.4% (25th)
Pace: 31.9 (32nd)
Plays per game: 65.4 (20th)
Pass: 59.4% (20th) | Run: 40.6% (13th)
All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.
The Rams have had about 10 days to stew after flopping in their last two games against the Titans (16 points scored) and 49ers (10). Before those two outings, the Rams had put up 26 or more points seven times in their first 8 games and now face a Packers defense that was just shelled for 34 points by the Vikings. L.A. has a lot to figure out offensively without Robert Woods – who was a massive part of their run game as a blocker – but this matchup certainly looks easier for them now than it did a few weeks ago. My bet is that they come out and throw the rock around. Over their last eight games, the Rams have vaulted to fourth in pass rate in neutral situations (67%; fourth-highest).
Green Bay is in a tough spot this week without stud T/G Elgton Jenkins out for the season, LT David Bahkitiari still sidelined, Aaron Jones banged up, and Aaron Rodgers playing hurt. I know this offense came through for a monster game last week, but it’s hard to bet significantly on a repeat performance here. The other concerning factor about this game is the Packers’ pace. They are playing slower than any offense in the league and, as a result, their pace crushes the overall upside in this matchup. Rams-Packers is the second-worst game in the pace / play model for Week 12, ranking only behind the Bears-Lions game Thursday.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
Jalen Ramsey does not adhere to alignment percentages. One week, he works exclusively outside. In another, he devotes two-thirds of his reps to the slot. In some games, he’s planted himself to one side of the field. In others, he will rotate. While it would be 100% accurate to state that Ramsey has not shadowed a single receiver all season, Ramsey the Great’s willingness to shatter all expectations forces me to pause before tossing out any absolutes. What I can guarantee is that Ramsey will play exceptional football on Sunday. While I have a gut feeling that Ramsey will remove the seal this week to tail Davante Adams to both sides of the field, everyone should make their own decisions as to handling Adams this week.
If Matthew Stafford submits another sub-16 FP performance this week, it’ll be time to hit the panic button in Los Angeles. Green Bay’s defense is about as far removed from being a slouch as it gets, but Stafford lacks a single coverage weakness within his game. He’s a QB that’s supposed to excel no matter who takes the field against him.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
Depending on your preferences, you might have been somewhat intrigued or outright repulsed by Aaron Rodgers shoving his feet into a camera to prove he doesn’t have a side effect of COVID-19 known as “COVID toe,” but rather has a fractured pinky toe that’s causing him a lot of discomfort. Rodgers has said he hopes to get to the Packers’ Week 13 bye without more complications so he can then potentially heal up.
Rodgers, just like last week, missed multiple practices during the week, but should be good to go against the Rams.
And it’s possible Rodgers’ offense will be healthier — despite Green Bay having the luxury of sitting Aaron Jones (knee) and Allen Lazard (shoulder) another week, both have practiced in a limited fashion.
Sounds like Aaron Jones will be a game-time decision on Sunday against the Rams. Matt LaFleur says he made it through yesterday’s walkthrough well. Coming off that Week 10 MCL sprain.— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 25, 2021
Selfishly, I’d prefer the Packers to sit Jones one more week so we can get a bell-cow performance from AJ Dillon one more time. If Jones doesn’t play, Dillon is an RB1 based on volume alone in a tough matchup, but if Jones does go, I slightly prefer Dillon to him with both on the RB2/FLEX radar.
If Lazard returns, that makes Marquez Valdes-Scantling a lot less easy to trust against a team in the Rams that prevents big plays. MVS had a team-high 10 targets last week against the Vikings, but that target share would likely shrink if Lazard can come back, and the Rams have given up just 5 completions of 25 or more air yards this year, tied for 4th-fewest in the NFL.
While the Packers are extremely familiar with Ram QB Matthew Stafford, and have gotten the better of him for most of his NFL career, they’re not going to be taken by surprise this week, says S Adrian Amos.
Packers safety Adrian Amos: “Matt Stafford always been good. He just played for the Lions.”— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 24, 2021
That being said, given the Packers’ familiarity with Stafford, I’m sure they know that being able to get pressure home against him is key, and Stafford’s struggles of late have come because teams are getting to him without blitzing.
I wrote about the Rams’ two untimely losses, and if they should give us pause regarding the midseason acquisitions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr.— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 17, 2021
You know that whole “we don’t blitz Mahomes anymore” thing? Stafford’s suddenly got the same problem.
That plays into the strengths of Packer DC Joe Barry just fine — the Packers blitz at a bottom-10 rate in the league, so I would expect the Packers to challenge Stafford with coverages and hope they get their pass rush home.
The Rams have had their bye coming off of two disappointing losses, and they’ve evidently used that bye to get WR Odell Beckham installed in the offense after his limited debut.
Sean McVay expects to see more of Odell Beckham Jr. on Sunday after he played just 15 snaps in his Rams debut. https://t.co/ikj7C7lK93— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) November 26, 2021
My read on the situation? Beckham will join Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson as full-time players in the Rams’ almost exclusive 11 personnel sets. I don’t think I’d rank him above Jefferson just yet, but the Rams have no choice but to get their new toy heavily involved.