General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
I’m no Jeff Wilson stan, but his workload last week has made me a believer in the fact that the 49ers are committed to using him as the top back going forward. After notching only half the snaps the previous weeks, he logged 88% in Week 15. The kid is due for some positive touchdown variance as well. He’s been running really bad with Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juscyzk stealing rushing touchdowns. One of these weeks Wilson is going to punch two or three in on the ground and this seems like a great week to do it.
George Kittle has two monster games in his last three which has included 30% of the targets and 30% of air yards over the last month. Kittle has the unique run after the catch ability to turn a crossing route into a 60-yard touchdown. He’s one of the few tight ends that has a true 30-40 point ceiling in the league.
Deebo Samuel is electric, but I don’t love the way the 49ers have been using him as of late. It’s great that they are pitching him the ball out of the backfield or giving him reverses and jet sweeps, but as I mentioned before we can’t count on 20-yard touchdown runs from Deebo every week despite the fact he’s been on the correct side of variance thus far. He’ll be in my captain pool, but I’m less excited about him that Wilson and Kittle.
AJ Brown and Julio Jones deserve consideration against a 49ers backend that leaves a lot to be desired. Of course make sure that both players are active without any limitations. Ryan Tannehill has been working with a cast of CFL-caliber pass-catchers and now may have both his top targets back. The 49ers can give up yards in chunks so I like rotating both Brown and Jones in at captain just if only in a handful of lineups.
Ryan Tannehill is mobile and every now and again runs in a red zone touchdown. He also now gets a healthy complement of pass-catchers that he can spread the ball around to evenly. If Tannehill goes for 300/2 and also runs one in he will land as the optimal captain and I think that scenario is more likely than his captain ownership will give him credit.
Flex
D’Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, and Jeremy McNichols are splitting snaps pretty evenly. Foreman is coming off a 22 carry game and I think it’s safe to assume he’ll get the bulk of the carries again, however he’s much more expensive than Hilliard and McNichols. My handicapping of this situation makes me lean towards having a bit more of the cheaper backs, especially in Titans stacks that lean towards the passing game. With the key receivers back, I don’t think we’ll see the Titans lean as heavily on the run, resulting in a few less carries for Foreman and a few more targets for Hilliard and McNichols.
Nick Westbrook-Ikinhe will be the third option on the field tonight and an overpriced one. It seems as though the prices were set with the idea that Julio and Brown would not play. Therefore guys like Westbrook, Chester Rogers, Cody Hollister, and Racey McRath who have been on the field a bunch over the last few weeks will not be out there as much this week. I think they can be used sparingly with Tannehill in Titans’ passing stacks, but none are good plays with the Titans bringing back healthy starters.
Anthony Firkser gets a lot of love, but he only played 21% of snaps last week compared to over 30% for MyCole Pruitt and a wild 70% for Geoff Swaim. With that said Firsker saw about as much usage as the other two despite the discrepancy in snaps played. Even still I am going to lean Swaim in this game as I personally think he’s a better receiver and basically won the job away from Firkser in the middle of the season. He just missed a touchdown last week on a slight overthrow from Tannehill and those are things that don’t show up in the box score. With a lot of attention being paid to Firkser because he was supposed to be the sleeper tight end to start the year, give me a bit more of Swaim and Pruitt.
Brandon Aiyuk has been a massive disappointment for much of the season, He’s basically averaged six+ targets over the course of the second half of the season and it’s basically a crapshoot whether he turns those targets into meaningful fantasy production. He makes for a good leverage play on Deebo and Kittle, maybe this is the week Aiyuk hits his ceiling capabilities. Juann Jennings has played a solid role for the 49ers, scoring twice in the last month and he’s a bit cheaper than Aiyuk. The 49ers have two dart throws in JaMychal Hasty and Trent Sherfield. Both will get on the field sparingly, but have a shot at hitting the optimal if this game has a healthy amount of points.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Jeff Wilson
Flex: 49erst DST, Dontrell Hilliard, AJ Brown
Captain: George Kittle
Flex: Jimmy Garoppolo, Julio Jones, Jeff Wilson
Captain: Deebo Samuel
Flex: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Geoff Swaim
Captain: Ryan Tannehill
Flex: AJ Brown, Julio Jones, Jeff Wilson
Captain: AJ Brown
Flex: Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Aiyuk, Jeff Wilson
