2025 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: WRs

Stay ahead in your fantasy football league by understanding the crucial strength of schedule changes that could alter player performance at the wide receiver position!

Which wide receivers have the toughest or easiest fantasy schedules this year? Which wide receivers had the toughest or easiest schedules last year? Or what about the toughest or easiest schedules in the fantasy postseason? Or to start the season? Which wide receivers saw their schedules improve the most or least? How big of an impact was that change in schedule? Can we quantify that change in real terms using fantasy points?

Luckily for our subscribers, we can answer all of these questions and more. But to do so, we first had to quantify strength of schedule. This is typically done by calculating a defense’s FPG allowed average and then looking at the average for all players over a full season. This will also be our approach; however, we’ll be taking things one step further – we will use a control for the opposing offense by measuring FPG over an opponent’s average.

For instance, last season, opposing wide receivers averaged +5.7 fantasy points per game over their season-long average when facing Minnesota, which ranked worst in the league. (The Vikings were the most favorable fantasy matchup for opposing wide receivers; worth, on average, an additional 5.7 fantasy points per game.) On the opposite end of the spectrum, wide receivers fell short of their season-long average by 5.6 fantasy points when facing the Bears, which ranked best in the league. (The Bears were the toughest fantasy matchup for opposing wide receivers.) Calculating these numbers for all teams and then applying the full-season average for all players quantifies in real terms which players had the easiest and most difficult schedules for fantasy last year. We can also use these numbers to project out strength of schedule for each team and each position in 2025.

Ah, then, you might ask: “Do defenses get defined as ‘tough’ matchups because bad WR play against them is dragging the numbers down?” Not for this study. The strength of schedule average used in this study controls for the quality of the opponent by eliminating a team’s own WR performance against each specific defense. So, this SOS study filters out the notion that the WR being studied was responsible for his own schedule difficulty.

While this methodology isn’t perfect — of course, roster turnover and coaching changes will complicate things — strength of schedule doesn’t not matter. This data is still far more actionable than it is not. In fantasy football — like in poker — there may only be small edges to be gained, but those small edges can be compounded to yield a massive advantage. And they must be taken advantage of … and are, by the most dominant players. That’s the case with strength of schedule. It’s another small edge to be realized, and at the polar extremes, it might matter a lot more than you’d expect.

Here’s an example: last season, Ravens WRs had the 2nd-toughest schedule among all fantasy wide receivers. His average matchup last year was worth -1.06 [team wide receiver] FPG. Because Zay Flowers was responsible for roughly 43% of the fantasy points generated by Baltimore’s wide receivers last year (in games played), we can say that — adjusted for strength of schedule, or if he had a perfectly neutral strength of schedule last year — he would have scored an additional +0.46 fantasy points per game. Looking forward, Baltimore WRs have a slightly above-average strength of schedule (+0.16). Factoring in both points, Flowers’ schedule is much improved (2nd-most improved at the position) and worth a boost of +0.53 FPG (adjusting for usage). In other words, if he had this schedule last year, he would have finished 32nd (12.8) instead of 35th in FPG (12.3).

Clearly, strength of schedule – something totally outside of a player’s control and entirely due to luck – can have a significant impact for fantasy.

Other Positions

Quarterbacks (click here)

Running Backs (click here)

Tight Ends (click here)

Best Overall Schedule (2024)

1. Chris Olave, Average Matchup: +1.66

2. Davante Adams (+0.70)

3. Adam Thielen (0.89)

4. Garrett Wilson (0.84)

5. Malik Nabvers (0.69)

Worst Overall Schedule (2024)

1. Demarcus Robinson & Tutu Atwell (-1.21)

2. Zay Flowers & Rashod Bateman (-1.06)

3. D.K. Metcalf (-0.86)

4. Cooper Kupp (-0.80)

5. Jordan Addison (-0.77)

2025 Schedule

PDF and CSV downloads available here.

Best Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-17)

1. Jets WRs (+2.83)

2. Dolphins WRs (+0.75)

3. Panthers WRs (+0.52)

4. Eagles WRs (+0.43)

5. Seahawks WRs (+0.39)

6. Steelers WRs (+0.39)

Worst Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-17)

1. Cowboys WRs (-0.93)

2. Giants WRs (-0.86)

3. Browns WRs (-0.76)

4. Broncos WRs (-0.51)

5. Jaguars WRs (-0.45)

Off to a Hot Start (First Five Games)

1. Bengals WRs (+2.66)

2. Bears WRs (+2.28)

3. Falcons WRs (+2.03)

4. Browns WRs (+1.66)

5. Ravens WRs (+1.58)

Slow Starters (First Five Games)

1. Cowboys WRs (-3.02)

2. Rams WRs (-2.26)

3. Cardinals WRs (-1.82)

4. Colts WRs (-1.72)

5. Broncos WRs (-1.14)

Best Playoff Schedule (Weeks 15-17)

1. Rams WRs (+2.37)

2. Cardinals WRs (+2.17)

3. Cowboys WRs (+2.10)

4. Lions WRs (+1.70)

5. Vikings WRs (+1.37)

Worst Playoff Schedule (Weeks 15-17)

1. 49ers WRs (-3.47)

2. Saints WRs (-2.13)

3. Bears WRs (-2.03)

4. Browns WRs (-1.80)

5. Packers WRs (-1.40)

Schedule Change (In Real Points)

Most Improved Schedule

1. Tyreek Hill (+0.60)

2. Zay Flowers (+0.53)

t3. Rashod Bateman (+0.45)

t3. D.K. Metcalf (+0.45)

5. Cooper Kupp (+0.39)

Least Improved Schedule

t1. Malik Nabers (-0.82)

t1. Chris Olave (-0.82)

3. Davante Adams (-0.70)

4. George Pickens (-0.49)

5. CeeDee Lamb (-0.43)

Thoughts / Notes / Dank Stats

1) The schedule might have the most significant impact on Tyreek Hill of any WR in the league. He has the most improved schedule compared to 2024, worth an additional +0.60 FPG. Even before accounting for the impact of schedule, Hill averaged 13.1 Underdog FPG in games with Tua Tagovailoa last year, which would have ranked as the WR17 — not as far below his current WR15 ADP as you might expect, and well within the margin for which schedule can account. But Hill’s schematic schedule could prove even more critical than his on-paper schedule. No team faced more two-high looks than the Dolphins in 2024, further limiting Hill’s chances to make plays downfield. But that might reverse in 2025, as Hill plays 10 of his 17 games against defenses that ranked top-12 in single-high rate last year. With a healthier Hill and a hopefully-improved run game to discourage defenses from sitting back in two-high, it’s entirely possible the Dolphins more closely resemble the 2023 version of themselves, when Hill averaged a league-leading 19.9 Underdog FPG.

2) I’m also viewing this offseason and the easy upcoming schedule as a buying opportunity for Jaylen Waddle. Waddle is one of only six WRs to have finished top-5 in YPRR multiple times since 2021. (The others are Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Nico Collins). If we live in a reality where Hill is truly washed at age 31 (only about one year early compared to the typical elite WR career arc), Waddle would benefit more than anyone. But aside from that, his 2023 was so injury- and partial game-ridden as to make any per-game stat misleading. That was followed immediately by a 2024 offense so lacking in offensive line play that even Hill couldn’t produce downfield. This has all led to a massive discount on Waddle to the tune of a WR32 Underdog ADP. Receivers as efficient and productive as Waddle do not simply fall off a cliff at 26 years old.

3) Garrett Wilson has the easiest schedule of any WR in 2025, but that was also true for him (and Davante Adams) in 2024; this schedule is actually worth -0.01 fewer real FPG than Wilson’s last year. Of course, Adams and his gargantuan 35.1% first-read target share are now gone, but Wilson will again be stuck with sub-replacement-level QB from Justin Fields. Only Zach Wilson has been definitively worse than Justin Fields at turning dropbacks into accurate throws over the past several seasons, a reality that makes Wilson a tough sell for me at his WR13 Underdog ADP. And despite the favorable schedule, the Jets are implied to average just 19.6 PPG in Vegas lookahead lines — the 4th-fewest above only the Saints, Giants, and Browns.

4) A.J. Brown similarly has the 4th-easiest WR schedule, but one that is also essentially identical in difficulty to 2024. However, a schedule-related fact that could help Brown compared to last year is that the Eagles’ opponents rank top-5 in Vegas win total, suggesting they could be forced to throw in more competitive games than they had throughout much of 2024, when they played the 4th-easiest schedule (by actual opponent wins). Brown ranked 2nd among 91 qualifying WRs in both YPRR (3.22) and FP/RR (0.55) last season; if he’d run as many routes as Ja’Marr Chase, he’d have averaged 132.2 receiving YPG and 22.6 Underdog FPG, which would have easily led all WRs over the past four seasons. Even better, across five games in 2024 in which the Eagles threw the ball just 25 or more times (a threshold well below the league average of 32.7), Brown averaged 101.4 receiving YPG (~WR1) and 18.1 Underdog FPG (~WR2). Teams as run-heavy as the 2024 Eagles throw about 20% more on average in the following season; a mark this team could easily hit by way of tougher opponents or via injuries to Saquon Barkley or the defense. Brown is an appealing click in Round 2.

5) Much of the same schedule and pass volume-related reasons to like Brown apply to Devonta Smith. But he’s even more glaringly mispriced as just the Underdog WR25 despite finishing as a top-20 WR in every year since his rookie season. If the Dallas Goedert trade rumors ever come to fruition, Smith would be an even bigger winner; he averaged 14.8 Underdog FPG (~WR7) across seven games without Goedert (but with Brown) last year.

6) Tetairoa McMillan will be welcomed to the NFL by the 3rd-easiest schedule of any WR, headlined by dream early-season matchups against the Jaguars and Falcons. And I love this situation for him, as Bryce Young is quite capable of delivering the ball downfield, ranking top-10 in catchable throw rate on plays of 20+ air yards from a clean pocket (per Jacob Gibbs). But Young was hurt by drops more than any other QB, leading the NFL in dropped air yards on on-target throws. This was a particular issue with Young’s outside receivers; Xavier Legette and David Moore totaled as many drops (11) as Adam Thielen drew targets from out wide. As the the clear best “pure” WR prospect in this class (Travis Hunter aside), McMillan should be an immediate antidote to this offense’s need for a true X receiver; WRs drafted inside the top-10 over the past four seasons have averaged 7.5 targets/game (~WR23) or a 23.5% target share (~WR21). The range of outcomes is wide with any rookie, but I’m very willing to take McMillan at his WR22 Underdog ADP.

7) I’ve extolled the virtues of Malik Nabers plenty this offseason. (He commanded the highest first-read target share in Fantasy Points Data history. Despite awful QB play and missing three games, he earned the most catchable targets of any rookie WR from the past several draft classes. And best of all, he’s kind of an asshole who will always demand the ball.) So does it worry me that his schedule went from 5th-easiest of 59 qualifying WRs in 2024 to the 2nd-toughest in 2025 — a difference worth approximately -0.82 FPG? Honestly, it really doesn’t, mostly because his efficiency has so much room to grow. It’s not as if Daniel Jones and Tommy Devito were taking advantage of those easy matchups to feed Nabers lots of catchable targets and scoring chances. Nabers’ 7.25 YPT ranked 109th of 127 WRs with 100+ targets over the past four seasons. Over the same period, his 11.1 targets per game ranked 2nd. Nabers’ volume is locked in; it’s just a question of whether one of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, or Jaxson Dart can improve on his QB play from last year. Even with the tougher schedule, that seems overwhelmingly likely.

8) CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are in awkward spots, condemned to the worst WR schedule of any team across the full season, but having the 3rd-easiest across the fantasy playoffs. Things rarely work out so neatly, but in theory, that could make a Cowboys stack an especially unique and valuable one to advance in a tournament like Underdog’s Best Ball Mania if this passing game struggles early but comes on down the stretch. That’s enough of a silver lining to give myself permission to continue being high on this offense, which under new HC and play caller Brian Schottenheimer could end up more pass-heavy than anyone thinks and supercharge Lamb’s efficiency in particular through an increased use of motion.

9) Zay Flowers (and Rashod Bateman) also get significantly easier schedules than they played in 2024, worth an additional +0.53 and +0.45 FPG, respectively. It’s hard not to contrast this fact with Derrick Henry now facing the 2nd-toughest schedule (at least until later in the year). But similarly to A.J. Brown, whether you buy into the Ravens’ WRs this year should mostly be determined by what you expect their defense and game scripts to look like. Through the first 10 weeks of 2024 (before the Ravens’ defense began leading the NFL in every category), Flowers averaged 12.6 Underdog FPG (~WR18) in his healthy games and exceeded 18.0 PPR points five times, fewer than only Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. After Baltimore’s defense came together, Flowers averaged just 8.0 Underdog FPG as they largely controlled the game script and trailed on just 27.6% of their offensive plays from Week 11 on. Which version of the Ravens’ defense and Flowers will we get this year? Safety Ar’Darius Washington — a major part of their defensive turnaround — tore his Achilles and will miss the entire 2025 season. The early part of the schedule is stacked with opposing offenses like the Bills, Lions, Chiefs, and Rams that can turn any game into a shootout, with later dates against the Bengals coming in Weeks 13 and 15. The pieces are there, but I’m ultimately not confident enough in this argument to go massively overweight on Flowers at his WR29 Underdog ADP; he’s fine, but Jaylen Waddle (discussed above) and Jordan Addison (below) offer similar upside a round later.

10) Weeks 15-17 are the most important in nearly every fantasy football format, but it’s especially true of large-field best ball tournaments on platforms like Underdog. With the importance of creating stacks for these playoff round games in December, it’s worth thinking about which combinations of teams will be playing in domes or in warm climates unlikely to ruin your stack with a blizzard. Focusing primarily on the WR position, here are the teams I want to target for Weeks 15-17 based on weather, ease of stacking, and fantasy playoff schedules.

11) The Rams and Falcons play each other in the indoor Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 17 in a projected close game with just a 3.0-point spread. And these passing games enjoy excellent matchups throughout the fantasy playoffs, respectively facing the easiest and 10th-easiest schedules by FPG allowed to WRs. Five of these teams’ six fantasy playoff games will be played in domes or in Florida. Drake London and Puka Nacua could soon become a popular pairing in the first two rounds of best ball drafts, but a more contrarian (by current ADP) combination of Bijan Robinson and Davante Adams could prove just as lucrative. Adams is currently selected toward the end of Round 3, but our projections show him as a defensible pick for Robinson teams around the 2/3 turn.

12) Although the Texans’ and Chargers' passing games have relatively average playoff schedules, they play five of their six fantasy playoff matchups indoors, with the Chargers’ Week 15 trip to Kansas City the only exception. This Week 17 matchup could have massive playoff implications in the AFC and invites a contrarian Nico Collins + Ladd McConkey build at the Round 1/2 turn. (As with Adams, our projections support a slight reach on McConkey). And the rest of these teams’ receiving weapons are readily available in later rounds. Rookie Jaylin Noel graded as Brett Whitefield’s WR3 in the class, only has to beat out Christian Kirk (on whom the Texans spent just a 7th-round pick to acquire), and has an ADP outside the top-150.

13) Aside from the Texans, the only other team that will spend the entirety of the fantasy playoffs indoors is the Lions, whose playoff opponents allowed the 3rd-most receiving FPG last year. Their Week 17 opponent (the Vikings) plays two of their three playoff matchups indoors while boasting the 5th-easiest fantasy playoff schedule by opponent rushing FPG allowed. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason haven’t been my favorite clicks so far, but whichever of them is leading the backfield by Week 15 could well be a fantasy playoffs hero as favorites against the Cowboys and Giants. It won’t be possible to stack multiple of this game’s premium pieces (Justin Jefferson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown), but a bevy of ancillary pass game weapons like T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, and Jordan Addison make this a viable game to build around. And best of all? There’s no Sam Darnold here to turn this potential battle for the NFC North into a stinker as he did in 2024.

14) Though most of their fantasy playoff matchups will occur outdoors, Seattle and Carolina stick out as having the 2nd-easiest and 7th-easiest fantasy playoff schedules by receiving FPG allowed, respectively. Though Chuba Hubbard and Ken Walker (the latter of whom also boasts the 2nd-easiest playoff schedule by rushing FPG allowed) are my current favorite values on these teams, I’m going to make a point to try pairing Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tetairoa McMillan in drafts where one of them falls past ADP. Before the pair meet in a hopefully mild-weather Charlotte for Week 17, McMillan gets a dome game in New Orleans, followed by a warm Tampa Bay outing, while Smith-Njigba will get Colts and Rams secondaries that struggled throughout 2024.

15) After he drew the 10th-toughest schedule of 59 qualifying WRs in 2024, Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (and Jaylen Waddle) get the 2nd-easiest WR schedule in 2025. Though their fantasy playoff schedule ranks about average on paper, likely mild-weather home matchups in Miami against the Bengals and Buccaneers over the final two weeks of the fantasy season are a massive plus. Their Week 17 stacking partner in the Buccaneers likewise boasts warm Week 15-16 matchups against the Falcons and Panthers, with Baker Mayfield enjoying the 3rd-easiest playoff schedule of any QB.

16) The Cardinals boast the 2nd-easiest fantasy playoff schedule (@ HOU, ATL, @ CIN) by FPG allowed to both QBs and WRs, and get the added bonus of dome games in Weeks 15 and 16. That’s great for Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison, as are their overall schedules; Murray enjoys the easiest QB schedule across the full season (compared to the 9th-toughest in 2024), while Harrison’s goes from bottom-12 among 59 qualifying WRs to middle-of-the-pack this year. Trey McBride even gets in on the fun here, boasting the 2nd-easiest overall and 12th-easiest playoff schedule. As for the Cardinals’ Week 17 opponent, the Bengals will have to brave the weather in Baltimore (Week 15) and Cincinnati (Week 17) as well as a slightly below-average fantasy playoff schedule by FPG allowed to WRs (-0.43, 19th). Still, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are enticing bring-backs almost regardless of circumstance.