2025 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: QBs

Stay ahead in your fantasy football league by understanding the crucial strength of schedule changes that could alter player performance at the quarterback position!

Which quarterbacks have the toughest or easiest fantasy football schedules this year? Which quarterbacks had the toughest or easiest schedules last year? Or what about the toughest or easiest schedules in the fantasy postseason this year? Or to start the season? Which quarterbacks saw their schedules improve the most or least? How big of an impact was that change in schedule? Can we quantify that change in real terms using fantasy points?

Luckily for our subscribers, we can answer all of these questions and more. But to do so, we first had to quantify strength of schedule. This is typically done by calculating a defense’s FPG allowed average and then looking at the average for all players over an entire season. This will also be our approach. However, we’ll be taking things one step further – we will use a control for the opposing offense by measuring FPG over an opponent’s average.

For instance, last season, opposing quarterbacks averaged +4.6 fantasy points per game over their season-long average when facing the Jaguars, which ranked worst in the league defensively. (Jacksonville was the most favorable fantasy matchup for opposing quarterbacks — worth, on average, an additional 4.6 fantasy points per game.)

On the opposite end of the spectrum, quarterbacks fell short of their season-long average by 3.4 points when facing the Steelers, which ranked best in the league. (In other words, the Steelers were the toughest fantasy matchup for opposing quarterbacks.)

Ah, then, you might ask: “Do defenses get defined as ‘tough’ matchups because bad QB play against them is dragging the numbers down?” Not for this study. The strength of schedule (SOS) average used in this study controls for the quality of an opponent by eliminating a QB’s own performance against a defense when measuring that individual’s SOS. So this SOS study filters out the notion that the quarterback being studied was responsible for his own schedule difficulty — I measure the QB’s SOS by measuring how his peers performed relative to their average against a particular defense. In essence, the defenses playing Will Levis don’t simply look tough statistically because they were playing Will Levis during a bad season, because I control for that.

Calculating these numbers for all teams and then applying the full-season average for all players quantifies in real terms which players had the easiest and most difficult schedules for fantasy last year. We can also use these numbers to project out strength of schedule for each team and each position in 2025.

While this methodology isn’t perfect — of course, roster turnover and coaching changes will complicate things — strength of schedule doesn’t not matter. This data is still far more actionable than it is not. In fantasy football — like in poker — there may only be small edges to be gained, but those small edges can be compounded to yield a massive advantage. And they must be taken advantage of… and are, by the most dominant players. That’s the case with strength of schedule. It’s another small edge to be realized, and at the polar extremes, it might matter a lot more than you’d expect.

Here’s an example: last season, Kyler Murray had the 7th-toughest strength of schedule of any QB last year. His average matchup was worth -0.49 [generic team quarterback] FPG. Because he was responsible for just about 100% of the fantasy points generated by Arizona’s quarterbacks last year (in games he started), we can say that – adjusted for strength of schedule, or if he had a perfectly average strength of schedule last year – he would have scored an additional 0.49 fantasy points per start.

Looking forward, Murray has the softest projected strength of schedule in 2025 (+0.99). In contrast to last year, his schedule is worth an additional +1.48 fantasy points per game in real terms. Essentially, if Murray had this schedule last year, he should have finished 7th at the position in FPG (19.9) instead of 12th (18.4).

Clearly, strength of schedule – something totally outside of a player’s control and entirely due to luck – can have a significant impact for fantasy.

Other Positions

Running Backs (click here)

Wide Receivers (click here)

Tight Ends (click here)

Best Overall Schedule (2024)

1. Justin Fields, Average Matchup: +0.72

2. Drake Maye (+0.71)

3. Dak Prescott (+0.51)

4. Gardner Minshew (+0.47)

5. Baker Mayfield (+0.40)

Worst Overall Schedule (2024)

1. Anthony Richardson (-0.95)

2. Trevor Lawrence (-0.93)

3. Sam Darnold (-0.84)

4. Bo Nix (-0.59)

5. Geno Smith (-0.54)

2025 Schedule

PDF and CSV downloads available here.

Best Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-17)

1. Kyler Murray (+0.99)

2. C.J. Stroud (+0.71)

3. Brock Purdy (+0.68)

4. Matthew Stafford (+0.64)

5. Sam Darnold (+0.59)

Worst Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-17)

1. Browns QB (-0.92)

2. Giants QB (-0.90)

3. Joe Burrow (-0.87)

4. Dak Prescott (-0.83)

5. Caleb Williams (-0.74)

Off to a Hot Start (First Five Games)

1. C.J. Stroud (+1.70)

2. Jalen Hurts (+1.20)

3. Michael Penix (+1.10)

4. Trevor Lawrence (+1.02)

5. Bryce Young (+0.90)

Slow Starters (First Five Games)

1. Dak Prescott (-1.98)

2. Jared Goff (-0.94)

3. Geno Smith (-0.84)

4. Josh Allen (-0.78)

5. Saints QB (-0.74)

Best Playoff Schedule (Weeks 15-17)

1. Sam Darnold (+2.00)

2. Kyler Murray (+1.80)

3. Baker Mayfield (+1.50)

4. Michael Penix (+1.23)

5. Justin Fields (+1.17)

Worst Playoff Schedule (Weeks 15-17)

1. Browns QB (-2.37)

2. Jordan Love (-1.57)

3. Jared Goff (-1.37)

4. Josh Allen (-1.30)

5. Caleb Williams (-1.27)

Schedule Change (In Real Points)

Most Improved Schedule

1. Kyler Murray (+1.48)

2. Sam Darnold (+1.43)

3. Trevor Lawrence (+1.39)

4. Anthony Richardson (+1.26)

5. Matthew Stafford (+1.07)

Least Improved Schedule

1. Dak Prescott (-1.34)

2. Caleb Williams (-1.01)

3. Russell Wilson (-0.97)

4. Jordan Love (-0.61)

5. Jared Goff (-0.57)

Thoughts/Notes/Dank Stats

1) Brock Purdy draws the 3rd-easiest QB schedule in 2025, while Vegas projects the 49ers’ opponents for the fewest wins of any team. This should be a real boon for his fantasy production; Purdy has averaged 20.3 FPG in wins over the past three seasons, a +34% boost compared to losses. Despite nearly all of his weapons and offensive line crumbling in 2024 as the 49ers stumbled to a 6-11 record, Purdy still ranked top-10 in fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB). Purdy also ranks 6th-best in this highly predictive metric since 2022, behind only the NFL’s most hyper-mobile QBs.

A healthy Christian McCaffrey, a healthy Trent Williams, and the emergence of Jauan Jennings (and potentially Ricky Pearsall) should help make up for the departure of Deebo Samuel, and Purdy still produced high-end QB1 numbers even without all of these weapons. He represents a strong value at his QB12 Underdog ADP and will be one of my favorite late-round QBs in managed leagues this year, given the strong recent history of pocket passers in Shanahan systems beating their ADPs.

2) Kyler Murray enjoys the easiest schedule of any QB across the full season and the 2nd-easiest fantasy playoff schedule. I’m not sure I buy the idea that he’ll run more in 2025 after his career-low 4.6 rush attempts per game — especially after listening to HC Jonathan Gannon’s total non-answer when asked this point-blank at the NFL Combine — but matchups against several depleted secondaries (@NO, CAR, @SF, SEA, TEN) to open the season can’t hurt. Still, it may be even more important for the Cardinals to be pushed by their opponents; the team averaged a +2.0% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in losses last year (11th-highest) compared to -2.0% in wins (7th-lowest). On that front, I’m less optimistic, as the Cardinals also have one of the 10 easiest schedules by opponent implied win total. At Murray’s QB8 Underdog ADP, I feel I’m getting a similar bet waiting for Drake Maye (QB16).

3) Matthew Stafford gets a top-5 schedule in 2025 after averaging just 14.0 FPG against the 9th-toughest in 2024 (though that improved to 16.3 FPG in games with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua). The replacement of Kupp with Davante Adams (a significantly better separator at this point in their respective careers) should provide another boost, but likely not enough of one to get Stafford into the QB1 conversation. But in best ball, the prospect of a Stafford-led Rams stack is made even sweeter by multiple dome games (Week 15 vs. DET and Week 17 @ ATL) during the fantasy playoffs.

4) Jaxson Dart’s first start could come faster than anyone expects, as the Giants have the toughest overall schedule by opponent win total and open the season against a murderer’s row of opponents (@WAS, @DAL, KC, LAC, @NO, PHI, @DEN, @PHI). That Saints game in Week 5 is the only one in which the Giants are favored by lookahead lines all season, and would make for a logical debut for Dart if Brian Daboll is desperate to save his job by then. But whether it’s Dart, Russell Wilson, or Jameis Winston under center, the Giants face the 2nd-toughest overall QB schedule and are likely in for a rough 2025.

5) Similarly, the Browns are again in for a world of hurt, facing the 3rd-toughest overall schedule and the single-toughest QB schedule. The Browns aren’t favored in a single game and have an even tougher opening stretch than the Giants (CIN, @BAL, GB, @DET, MIN). Whichever of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, or Shedeur Sanders is starting by season’s end will have it especially bad, facing a fantasy playoff schedule (@CHI, BUF, PIT) that’s 51% tougher against QBs than the next-closest team. It’s bleak to the point that this is probably worth considering before drafting any Cleveland pass-catchers in best ball as well; we could be in for more Dorian Thompson-Robinson-esque late-season performances in another tanked season (DTR averaged just 89.5 passing YPG over the final four weeks of 2024).

6) Trevor Lawrence has a relatively friendly full-season schedule (10th-easiest), especially over his first five games (4th-easiest), featuring opening matchups against struggling Panthers and Bengals secondaries. This stands in stark contrast to his brutal 2024 matchups, which ranked 2nd-toughest of 35 qualifying QBs in his games played. After new Jaguars HC Liam Coen led Baker Mayfield to career-highs in YPA (7.9) and FPG (22.6, QB4), I’m pretty convinced of his ability to do similar with Lawrence (fitting the late-round “McShanahan” pocket passer thesis). He’s one of the best values at the position at his QB19 Underdog ADP, and we could likewise see the dynasty stocks of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter soar if this Jaguars offense opens the year in dominant fashion. Lawrence will be an excellent early-season streaming option in managed leagues who could graduate into an every-week starter.

7) Joe Burrow draws the 3rd-toughest QB schedule and the 8th-toughest fantasy playoff schedule. Perhaps I’m being overconfident, but I’m not entirely sure this matters in his case; he also had the 5th-toughest schedule in 2024, but that didn’t stop him from averaging 22.8 FPG (QB2, tied with Josh Allen) thanks in part to a dreadful defense that ranked bottom-6 in EPA/play. That same unit could well be without its best player in 2025, and the Bengals’ opponents are tied for the 11th-highest implied win total, suggesting even more shootouts in which Burrow will be forced to play the hero. The Bengals play a ton of potential cold-weather games late in the year, but Burrow has been lights-out in these spots as well.

8) Young NFC South QBs Bryce Young (6th-easiest) and Michael Penix (9th-easiest) have welcoming schedules throughout the season. They’ll also face relatively weak opponents in general, with both teams’ schedules ranking among the top-5 softest by implied opponent win total. We’ve seen controlled game scripts benefit Young in particular, who averages 18.1 FPG in wins over his career (a full +60% more than in losses). Being in the same division as the Saints goes a long way! For his part, Penix’s fantasy playoff schedule (@TB, @ARI, LAR) ranks 4th-easiest, and he plays every game from Week 14 on in either a dome or in Florida.

9) Sticking with the theme of weak NFC South secondaries, Baker Mayfield has a relatively average full-season schedule but will enjoy a fantasy playoffs slate that ranks 3rd-easiest (ATL, @CAR, @MIA). The Buccaneers play every game after Week 11 in a dome or a warm climate — I’ll be experimenting with stacking multiple of these NFC South teams alongside the Miami Dolphins in fantasy playoff-focused Underdog tournaments. Though former OC Liam Coen left to coach the Jaguars, Mayfield has now ranked top-12 in ANY/A in back-to-back seasons under two different play callers, and his QB7 ADP gives you a discount from his 22.6 FPG (QB4) in 2024. Still, it’s tough to project him to match his career-high 7.2% TD rate (29% better than his next-closest season), so I’ll mostly get my exposure on those best ball teams rather than in managed leagues if that ADP holds.

10. Caleb Williams is treated to the 6th-softest schedule early in the season (MIN, @DET, DAL, @LV, @WAS, NO) before taking a dramatic turn into the 5th-toughest full-season and fantasy playoff schedule. Our metrics are probably underrating a Lions unit marred by injuries late in 2024, but aside from them and a Vikings defense we’ve seen Ben Johnson pick apart twice in the last few months, there’s little to fear here early on. And that might be all Williams needs to establish himself, given that Johnson, as a play caller, ranks 2nd-best in YPA (7.89) and 3rd-best in passing YPG (270.0) since he took over as the Lions’ OC in 2022. This offseason, the Bears have completely rebuilt their offensive line, drafted multiple pass-catchers with top-40 picks, and committed to building an offense around Williams’ strengths (below). There isn’t much more a second-year QB could ask for.

11) Aside from how strong a QB’s opponents are, it’s also worth considering the potential impact of weather late in the season, with the most critical weeks of every fantasy format taking place in December. Additionally, some QBs have long-standing track records of performing better in domes. (For these purposes, I’m considering any 2025 game in a stadium with a retractable roof as a dome game, as it will likely be played with the roof closed if weather would otherwise be a factor.) Here’s what I uncovered while viewing the schedule through this lens.

Thanks to playing half his schedule at Allegiant Stadium, Geno Smith gets 12 dome games in 2025, including two in the fantasy playoffs (@ HOU, NYG). He’s averaged 23.2 FPG across 10 indoor games since 2022 — +49% more than he’s averaged outdoors — despite all of those games taking place on the road. He doesn’t have a particularly great overall (21st) or fantasy playoff schedule (26th), but that was also true of his 2024 season (6th-toughest). Smith is incredibly underrated as one of the NFL’s most accurate deep and intermediate throwers, presenting as a sneaky value in best ball (QB26) and dynasty superflex formats (QB28) alike.

12) On the flip side, Sam Darnold will play only three dome games all season. Since 2022, he’s averaged just 13.1 FPG outdoors. However, that improves to 17.5 FPG if we throw out everything before his 2024 career resurgence. And the Seahawks’ playoff schedule (IND, LAR, @CAR) is especially favorable to passing games, their opponents having allowed the most FPG to QBs (+2.00) and the 2nd-most overall receiving FPG (45.6). Across the full season, Darnold’s opponents project as the 5th-easiest group of any QB, compared to having the 3rd-toughest actual schedule among starting QBs in 2024. At his dirt-cheap cost (Underdog’s QB28), I’m pretty interested in giving Darnold a shot in Klint Kubiak’s play-action and deep-throw heavy system that had Derek Carr ranking top-12 in FP/DB.

13) C.J. Stroud has averaged +36% more FPG in domes since 2022. But considering he plays his home games at NRG Stadium, it’s not entirely clear whether this reflects indoor or home-field advantages — he’s also averaged +33% more FPG at home over this period. Regardless, Stroud is one of only two QBs who will play his entire fantasy playoff schedule (Weeks 15-17) indoors, at a time on the calendar when several other games could be affected by weather. The Texans additionally face the 2nd-easiest overall schedule for QBs, including an especially suspect group of secondaries to open the season (@LAR, TB, JAX, TEN). That puts him on the streaming radar to open the year, and there’s a real chance he grows beyond that; remember, Stroud averaged 19.0 FPG (QB8) as a rookie before his offensive line completely fell apart in Year 2, allowing the 2nd-highest pressure rate (38.0%).

14) Like Stroud, Jared Goff has also averaged +36% more FPG in domes since 2022 (or +44% more FPG at home). He’s also the only other QB to play his entire fantasy playoff schedule indoors (@LAR, PIT, @MIN). For stacking purposes, Goff’s receivers face the 3rd-easiest playoff schedule by overall opponent receiving FPG allowed, or the 4th-easiest for WRs and 5th-easiest for TEs. But Goff himself could be in for a difficult year before that late-season dome advantage comes into play; across the full season, he faces the 6th-toughest schedule of any QB and will have to adjust to life without Ben Johnson, under whom Goff has ranked top-5 in YPA and passing YPG since 2022.

15) Similarly, Dak Prescott has averaged +19% more FPG in domes over the past three seasons and plays 10 of his games indoors this year, including the entire second half of the fantasy season (from Week 9 on) aside from a Week 17 bout in Washington. This stretch notably features likely high-scoring indoor affairs against the Vikings and Chargers in Weeks 15 and 16. But that’s the only positive way to spin Prescott’s schedule; zooming out, he faces the 6th-toughest playoff schedule, 4th-toughest overall schedule, and the single-toughest schedule over the first five weeks. We love Prescott as a season-long value, but there’s a very real chance he could be on waiver wires in managed leagues after the first month of the season (@ PHI, NYG, @ CHI, GB).